The Case For Evander (To Win MVP)

Can the magical Brazilian bring the MVP trophy back to the Rose City?

With only one game left in the season, the MLS award nominees were released on October 7th. The clubs themselves are the ones responsible for nominating their players. Last year, Zac McGraw wasn’t nominated for Defender of the Year, and I took it personally. This year, Evander has the opportunity to bring the Landon Donovan MVP trophy to Portland for the second time in club history. Diego Valeri won it back in 2017. But this version of MLS is drastically different than it was 7 years ago.

This is the sixth installment of my “The Case For” series. Previously, I took a look at Diego Gutierrez (early 2023 was not fun!), Santiago Moreno (he got his contract extension!), Jaroslaw Niezgoda (who got hurt right after I wrote about him), Zac McGraw (already linked above but I’m linking it here again), and Marvin Loria (who got hurt right after I wrote about him). However, this is probably the most important installment in the series. 

The Pacific Northwest is the moon colony of America. Those that don’t live here don’t understand it. The land of rain and trees is so far away from the majority of Americans and it often gets ignored in national conversations. Because of this unfortunate phenomenon, Cascadia has to bring itself to national prominence in order to get recognition. However, like Ken Griffey Jr. in the early 1990s and the duo of Valeri and Damian Lillard in the 2010s, a superstar resides in this far-flung corner of the United States and he cannot be ignored any longer.

Evander Ferreira da Silva became the Portland Timbers’ record signing in the winter of 2022. Billed as a “central attacking midfielder,” the 24-year-old from Rio de Janeiro was acquired from FC Midtjylland in Denmark and was given a Designated Player contract. The expectations were immediately sky-high. Portland was missing a high-level chance creator since the departure of Diego Valeri, and the expensive Brazilian was expected to be the heir apparent. However, despite a quietly excellent 2023, Evander’s initial season in Portland did not live up to expectations. He put together an excellent goal catalogue while leading the team in goals. Somehow, many fans and pundits believed that it wasn’t good enough. However, when you are the primary chance creator, the expectation isn’t to lead the team in goals. You have to provide. 

In his first year, Evander did a lot of providing. However, there wasn’t a ton of finishing to boost those precious assist numbers. His supporting cast was led by Santiago Moreno, Jaroslaw Niezgoda, Dairon Asprilla, and Yimmi Chara. Not exactly a group of players that are going to light up the scoresheet. Sure, Asprilla and Moreno had stretches of excellent production, but they weren’t the team’s Designated Players. That honor was bestowed on Chara and Niezgoda, who combined for a total of 2g/3a in 1,375 combined minutes (MLS play, Leagues Cup not included). That is horrendous production from, in theory, the top two attackers on the roster. Felipe Mora returned from injury in July 2023, and his return saw an uptick in Evander’s production. The Brazilian ended the year with a stretch of good form. Incoming head coach Phil Neville knew exactly what kind of player he had. During Neville’s introductory press conference back in November, he mentioned that there were a couple of players on this team that he wanted to sign when he was head coach of Inter Miami. Unsurprisingly, Evander was one of those players. There is an unwritten law of MLS known as “The Gass Theorum” after David Gass, the writer who popularized it. This rule states that most incoming players need a year to adjust to the league and their second MLS season is when you can really start to judge their contributions. Well, it’s Evander’s second season in the league, and he has proven to be every bit as valuable as the Timbers hoped he would be.

2024

Evander’s 2024 got off to a rocky start. While warming up for the season opener against Colorado, Evander went back to the locker room and was promptly scratched from the starting lineup after aggravating his right calf muscle. He didn’t play in either of the first two games (1-1-0 record) but returned to the team for their first road game: a trip to Yankee Stadium.

Portland got off to a slow start (down 1-0 in the 10th minute) but they slowly grew into the game by halftime. As the game wore on, the Timbers were getting closer and closer to finding the equalizer. Antony eventually delivered it, but the Timbers wanted to get off to a good start away from home in Neville’s tenure. With their backs up against the wall in stoppage time, Evander took it upon himself. A speculative effort from outside the box settled in perfectly at the far post to give the Timbers the win. It was only the second-most dramatic goal scored by the Timbers in stoppage time against NYCFC, but it was Evander’s announcement that this year would be different. 

In order to win a Most Valuable Player trophy, big moments carry a ton of weight. This is true across a lot of sports. Last season, Luciano Acosta dribbled through the entire Charlotte defense and scored a key goal to clinch a game and the Supporter’s Shield. The unbelievable equalizer against NYCFC gave Evander his first MVP moment of 2024. Don’t worry, plenty more are coming and I will be keeping track of all of them. 

The Timbers went on to drop their next game in Houston (zero goal involvements from Evander but he did create 4 chances). They would also lose their next two games, but both matches added two key characters to this story. The first is Felipe Mora. After returning from injury in the middle of 2023 and finishing the season in torrid form, the Chilean had a freak foot injury in the 2024 preseason. This kept him out of the first four games, but he made his season debut off the bench in a 3-1 loss at home to Philadelphia. However, he wasn’t the biggest name to make his season debut against the Union. Prior to the season, the departures of Yimmi Chara and Jaroslaw Niezgoda opened two DP slots. Mora occupied one of them after some contract math lowered his cap hit in 2023, but the third was still open. Enter Jonathan Rodriguez. The Uruguayan came with a pedigree of winning trophies and scoring goals. Without a single training session, he was in the starting lineup against the Union. Rodriguez scored his first Timbers goal during his debut. Mora was back. Rodriguez had just arrived. Evander’s supporting cast was elite. In the Philly loss, Evander created 5 chances and put 3 shots on target. By all accounts, the Timbers should have taken a lead within the first 30 minutes. Evander was a huge part of that. But they couldn’t finish, and a Union goal from a corner kick allowed the visitors to park the bus. Two losses followed the 3-match unbeaten start. And it was time to go to Vancouver.

Portland entered halftime down 2-0 after a Whitecaps blitz. But by the 77th minute, the game was tied at 2-2. How could that happen? Well, Evander happened. 7 minutes after halftime, he blasted a shot from the top of the box into the top left corner of the goal. Whitecaps 2, Evander 1. At this point, I must remind all of you that Evander’s job as the chief creator is to provide. A perfect cross from the left wing off of Evander’s right foot found Mora’s head to tie the game. That’s one goal and one assist. Is it Evander’s fault that the Timbers had another defensive blunder in the 87th minute that lost them the game? 

Portland came back from a 3-0 halftime deficit in Kansas City one week later to earn a 3-3 draw. Evander scored a penalty and created a chance. Then LAFC came to town.

Earlier, I described the Pacific Northwest as a moon colony. Sometimes they do get national attention, but it is never due to their own achievements. It’s because back-to-back Western Conference champions LAFC were the opponent. An afternoon kickoff on a Saturday in a standalone window. A truly massive stage for Evander, and he was ready to perform.

His brilliant vision led to Portland’s opening goal. A chipped pass into the box was right into Mora’s on-rushing path, and the tiniest of touches put the ball past a flat-footed Hugo Lloris. However, LAFC equalized 11 minutes later. But only the greatest players can play quarterback and wide receiver. The state of Oregon has a history of those players, famously headlined by Marcus Mariota. In the 34th minute, it was Evander’s turn. Juan Mosquera lofted a ball into the box. Evander controlled it off of his chest and lashed a full volley into the roof of the net with his second touch. MVP moment #2.

The highlight of this goal has been replayed on every Apple TV broadcast since that Saturday in April. Now the rest of the country was now watching, and Neville took the opportunity to broadcast his own narrative: “Evander is the best number 10 in the West.”

Pearls were clutched, arguments were had, and Evander was suddenly in the national conversation. LAFC would tie the game 2-2 after Maxime Crepeau’s red card left them with a man disadvantage for most of the second half. Then it was time to visit the defending champions. To their credit, the Columbus Crew was largely able to keep Evander in check. He still assisted Santiago Moreno’s go-ahead goal in the 57th minute. At this point, after 7 games, Evander had 4g/3a. 

Injury promptly struck again. He missed the next two games (two losses in Los Angeles and Charlotte) before making a substitute appearance in the 2-1 loss to Seattle. The Timbers’ 9-game winless streak had dropped them to the absolute basement of the Western Conference. During this streak, the Timbers conceded multiple goals in each of their past 8 games. Evander’s heroics were helping this team stay competitive. When you drop this low in the standings, all you can do is climb. 

San Jose was also at the bottom of the West, and they came to town 3 days after the Timbers lost to Seattle. Naturally, the Timbers entered halftime down 2-0. Their second half comeback began with Evander’s penalty kick and an assist to Jonathan Rodriguez to equalize. Mora scored another penalty and Rodriguez scored another goal off of a breakaway to give the Timbers a 4-2 victory; their first since Evander’s first MVP moment against NYCFC back in early March. The Timbers traveled to Minnesota on a short week and Evander played primarily as a central midfielder, not a true number 10. He still managed to create a chance as the exhausted Timbers were unable to win at Allianz Field. However, Evander still showed some elite skills on the ball during this Minnesota game. After failing to get recognition from the league for his current and past heroics, he took to Instagram to voice his displeasure.

The climb began against SKC. 1g/1a for Evander in a 2-1 win. His goal was a well struck volley that won the game. MVP moment #3.

Yes, the call on the field would get overturned after a VAR review. Anti-climatic, but a goal is a goal. Especially a goal of that caliber.

Four days later in Austin, he hit a spectacular free kick that curled around the wall and back into the near post. This free-kick didn’t get nominated for MLS Goal of the Matchday. See the photo attached above. MVP moment #4.

You know what? That angle doesn’t give the brilliance of that free-kick enough justice. I think another camera angle is necessary.

There we go. Much better.

During this game, Portland’s defense took care of business and got their first (and only) road shutout of the season. Then the Houston Dynamo came to town, and the visitors took a 1-0 lead after 9 minutes due to Portland’s poor set piece defense. In the 37th minute, Mora equalized. Another defensive catastrophe after halftime led to a Dynamo go-ahead goal. But in the 76th minute, Nathan Fogaca rose to meet a perfect free-kick delivered by Evander and tied the game. Is a game-tying assist worthy of a MVP moment? Well, I think it depends on the quality of the assist and the importance of the match. I don’t think this assist qualifies for a MVP moment, but it is another Evander goal involvement that earned the Timbers a point. During their regular-season match in St. Louis, Evander played in the double pivot alongside David Ayala. Portland would get shut out, but Evander did create two chances. During this stretch of games, Evander tallied 2g/2a which took his total numbers to 7g/6a in 14 appearances. The first international break of the season was here.

After a week-and-a-half with no games, the Timbers traveled to San Jose. Evander opened the scoring and assisted Rodriguez’s eventual winner. The Brazilian assisted Rodriguez’s opener against Vancouver. Timbers win, 2-0. Minnesota was the next square on Evander’s bingo board and he scored a penalty kick deep in first half stoppage time to cut the halftime deficit to one. Then he assisted Moreno’s equalizer in the 73rd minute. Three straight games with a goal contribution. That streak continued in Dallas when Evander’s 63rd minute goal tied the game at 2. However, another defensive collapse gave Dallas the winning goal. At the end of the game, Evander picked up another yellow card and he was suspended for the weekend’s game against Nashville. Portland destroyed a hapless Nashville team 4-1 and the game was over by halftime. This set up a titanic battle with RSL one week later. In the team’s best performance of the season, Evander scored a goal and set up another as the Timbers won 3-0. That took his goal contributions streak to five. 

During that RSL game, Evander set a Timbers record. That game was his 8th game of the season where he provided multiple goal contributions. Diego Valeri previously held the record with 7 such games in a season. Evander broke that record in his 19th appearance of the season. 

However, their final league match before Leagues Cup was a loss in Carson. Evander chipped in with an assist and now his goal contributions streak reached six games before the Leagues Cup break. His team had climbed from the Western Conference basement in mid-May to 8th place in mid-July. And Evander’s goal contributions were crucial to that ascent.

Leagues Cup doesn’t hold any weight over MVP voting, but Evander shone in both of Portland’s group stage games. One crucial aspect of his play throughout his time in Portland has been his corner-kick and free-kick deliveries. The Timbers don’t employ a ton of aerial threats, but their biggest one (literally, he’s 6’4”) is Zac McGraw. After multiple failed corner kicks doomed them against the Galaxy, Evander and McGraw connected twice on corners to tie and win the game against Club Leon. It was Portland’s first ever victory against a Liga MX team in a competitive match. Evander didn’t directly contribute to any of the Timbers’ first three goals against Colorado, but he did provide a beautiful through-ball assist to Moreno for Portland’s fourth goal. Now his goal contribution streak stood at eight across all competitions. However, in the 12th minute of Portland’s Round of 32 match in St. Louis, the troublesome right calf issues flared up. He had to be substituted and the Timbers lost 3-1. 

Many goalkeepers who have to face Evander’s free kicks probably wish that they could move the goalposts around while the shot is in the air. Like those keepers, it’s time for me to do the same. It seems unfair for his goal contribution streak to end after only playing 12 minutes and leaving due to injury. Therefore, I am making an executive decision to keep his goal contributions streak active despite his early exit.

Portland had a chance to immediately get revenge on the Raviolis once league play resumed. However, they were down 3-1 at halftime. In the 57th minute, Evander assisted Mora to close the deficit to one. MLS goal contribution streak at 7, all competitions goal contributions streak at 9. One minute after Mora’s goal, St. Louis added a fourth goal. Mora scored again to bring it within one. After a chaotic period of stoppage time, Evander won a free-kick on the near side of the field. Defending Goalkeeper of the Year Roman Burki was in St. Louis’ net, but it didn’t stop Evander from firing home a brilliant free kick and tying the game at 4. MVP moment #5.

He assisted Juan Mosquera’s winner against Seattle one week later. The streak increased to 8 and 10. It was time for another international break, and Evander’s stats couldn’t be ignored any longer. At this point in the season, he had 12g/13a in 22 league matches.

With a trip to Colorado on the horizon, Evander was one game away from tying Diego Valeri’s club record streak of 9 consecutive league games with a goal involvement. That mark was set during Valeri’s MVP campaign in 2017. Interesting. Portland lost 2-1 in Colorado, but Evander technically assisted David Ayala’s goal off of a corner kick. This took his streak to 9, tying Valeri’s record.

Now, when I say “technically” in this context, it refers to MLS’ rules about collecting stats. The league counts secondary assists as full assists and Evander’s delivery that led to Ayala’s goal is a secondary assist. Well, that was the first goal involvement during this stretch that wasn’t a primary goal or assist. However, according to MLS rules, his streak continued. That’s fine by me. Because MLS counts secondary assists, Evander now stood alone as Portland’s all-time single season assist leader. 13 primary assists and 4 secondary assists combined for 17, passing Valeri’s mark of 16 from 2019. During that 2019 season, the Timbers arguably had their most talented collection of attacking players with Valeri, Brian Fernandez, Sebastian Blanco, and Jeremy Ebobisse. But 2024’s group of Evander, Mora, Rodriguez, and Moreno was already blowing them out of the water. 

Four days later against the Galaxy, Evander tallied 2g/1a to extend his streak to 10 league games (12 in all competitions). The assist to Rodriguez was a perfectly delivered ball from the left wing that found the diving Uruguayan at the near post. It was almost a carbon copy of his assist to Mora in Vancouver back in March. His opening goal was technical brilliance. He controlled Moreno’s square ball with his left foot and finished it with the same foot. Two touches. MVP moment #6, another highlight reel goal.

The entire game was an Evander masterclass, and I’m going to add another MVP moment (#7) for such a dominant performance against the top team in the Western Conference. 

Salt Lake City was the next destination on the schedule, and a tired Timbers team were down 2-0 at halftime. However, Antony pulled one back in the 62nd minute. That set the stage for MVP moment #8. Cristhian Paredes won a free kick in Evander-range. Based on the setup of the wall and the positioning of RSL goalkeeper Gavin Beavers, Evander had to go to the far post if he wanted to score. That’s exactly what he did, with the shot kissing the crossbar on its way to the back of the net.

You know it’s incredible when Max Bretos forgets how to speak English.

After conceding right before stoppage time, the Timbers equalized again a few minutes later. Another comeback draw on the road. His goal contribution streak reached 11 games (13 in all competitions). 

That goal, besides being an astounding feat of dead-ball excellence, was Evander’s 15th league goal of 2024. Now he was in the 15-15 club. Only five other players have ever accomplished that feat in MLS history. Three of them (1999 Jason Kreis, 2015 Sebastian Giovinco, and 2019 Carlos Vela) won MVP. Giovinco also accomplished the feat in 2016, but didn’t retain his MVP trophy. That was exceedingly odd for a player who led the league in total goal contributions. 

SIDEBAR: The 2016 MLS MVP Race

I’ve done my research for previous MVP races, and 2016’s is the weirdest one in recent memory. Some years the winner is exceedingly obvious like Vela in 2019. Five players received the lion’s share of votes in 2016. Here’s how those votes were distributed.

For these subjective awards, there are three groups that get to vote. Players, media, and clubs (technical staff) are all polled and each category carries a weight of 33.3%. Quick note: all stats are official MLS stats so secondary assists will be counted. 

Piatti led Montreal to 5th place in the East (11th in the Shield) with a 17g/6a season. That’s an outstanding year, but it doesn’t stack up to the other contenders. Although, going on basic (normal) stats, Piatti tied Kljestan with 22 goal involvements. Players seemed to give him more respect than clubs or media. 

Wright-Phillips won the Golden Boot. He finished the season with one more goal than Villa despite playing 100 less minutes than the eventual MVP. The Englishman finished with the second-highest share of the club vote and the third-highest share of the player vote. However, the media had a really hard time choosing between Villa, Wright-Phillips, and Giovinco. 

Kljestan’s candidacy was buoyed by his league-leading 20 assists. However, he only had 16 primary assists. Giovinco, meanwhile, had 14 primaries and only one secondary. According to raw stats, Giovinco had 9 more primary goal involvements than Kljestan. The Red Bulls (Wright-Phillips and Kljestan’s team) finished first in the East and third in the Shield. 

Three points behind them was David Villa’s NYCFC. The Spaniard won the player and club categories but finished tied for first with the media. Villa didn’t receive any secondary assist boost. His primary numbers match the official MLS stats. This was NYCFC’s second season in MLS, and Villa was the talisman of their rapid rise from 17th to 4th. However, Villa didn’t lead the league in goals or assists. He finished with the 3rd-most total goal involvements behind Wright-Phillips and Giovinco.

Giovinco really suffered from the player vote. Based on raw numbers, the Italian was the best player in the league for the second consecutive season. Oddly enough, he finished 3rd in the club vote. To make matters even weirder, he won the 2015 MVP despite his club finishing 12th in the Shield and getting the last playoff spot in the East. 2016 Toronto was objectively better, finishing 4 points behind the Red Bulls. 

There is only one point to this entire exercise: the stats don’t mean everything. Somehow, the media vote ended in a tie with Giovinco, Wright-Phillips, and Villa. Maybe there was some BBWAA-esque bias towards only awarding the MVP to a player once. To this day, no player has ever won the Landon Donovan MLS MVP Award twice aside from Preki in 1997 and 2003. Not even the man that the award is named after has won it twice. These are the people that Evander and Timbers fans are hoping will bring him to the promised land of MLS immortality. 

Back to the Main Story

Evander has now entered the prestigious 15-15 club. At this point in the season, he is still one assist shy of entering the club without the aid of secondary assists. 15 goals, 18 assists, 25 appearances (24 starts). These numbers are astronomical, and it’s time to fully lean into the MLS method of stat-keeping. Those are the numbers that Evander will be judged on. Unfortunately, he picked up a yellow card against RSL and missed the Vancouver game (1-1 draw) due to suspension. However, his goal contribution streak stood at 11. If he could get one goal contribution in the team’s next game against Austin, he would tie Giovinco for the second-longest streak in MLS history. The hype was in full swing. He couldn’t be ignored any longer. He was named MLS Player of the Month for the combined August-September period, becoming only the second Timber (Fanendo Adi in April 2016) to earn the honor. It was the perfect time for the Timbers’ attack to go cold.

Normally a combined 50 shots and 4.48 xG (3.03 xGOT) over two games would result in a goal. Maybe even multiple goals. Three goals at minimum based on the raw numbers. However, during their last 2 home games of the regular season, the Portland Timbers were shut out twice. Evander created a total of 10 chances (5 big chances) during these games. None of them were finished. Portland’s playoff positioning relied on the Timbers winning both of these games. Despite clinching a postseason berth for the first time since 2021, the Portland Timbers cannot escape 8th or 9th place. They will play in the Wild Card Game. When he took the podium after the draw against Dallas, he was furious. Not in an outwardly hostile way, but his raw disappointment leaked through the room. So close to keeping his MVP momentum and helping the team climb higher in the standings. He could care less about the former. In many different arrangements of words, his message to the fans and media has remained the same: “I’m just trying to do my best for the team.” His best couldn’t overcome a leaky defense. That’s why the Timbers are in this spot. These two results against Austin and Dallas were aberrations. They just came at the worst possible time.

The Resume

15 goals. 18 assists. 27 appearances (26 starts). That is an average of 1.27 goal contributions per start. Without the secondary assists, that number drops to 1.12. Evander has been at the center of everything for the Timbers in 2024. Counting stats are one thing, but where does he rank in terms of other metrics?

As the primary creator, Evander is expected to provide, not just score. In 2024, Evander is the best provider in MLS. His mark of 0.44 expected assists per 90 is the most in the league for anyone who has played more than 20 games. Using the same criteria, he is averaging the 4th-most key passes per 90. The Brazilian is a playmaker extraordinaire, and the stats back it up.

This is what he was brought here to do, and he’s doing it better than anyone in the league. Even the best soccer player of all time.

Lionel Messi is outperforming Evander in possession stats because Miami simply has more possession than the Timbers. The Herons’ average possession of 54.3% is 4th in the league while Portland ranks 19th in the same stat. Given that Messi has already been brought up, I will take a hint from every single bit of media coverage and immediately allow him to take over whatever topic I was in the process of talking about. 

The First Candidate: Lionel Messi

2024 MLS Stats: 18 appearances (15 starts), 1,455 minutes, 17 goals (1 penalty), 15 assists (11 primary)

Let’s make one thing perfectly clear: Messi’s per game numbers are spectacular. But there is a serious issue with his candidacy: the success of his team while he was absent. He began the season with a goal contribution streak of 8 games while Miami was unbeaten in the first 10 league games he played. But he missed a significant period of time during Copa America and due to injury. When he was absent, Miami’s record was 11-2-1 in league play. The Herons’ record with Messi in the team was 10-6-3. That’s 2.5 points per game without Messi and 1.9 points per game with him. Somehow, Miami was worse with Messi in the team! That’s insane!

Messi’s biggest claim to the MVP is his gravitational pull. Due to the tireless work of GM Chris Henderson, Miami has built the deepest roster in MLS history. Some of this is due to excellent drafting and academy work, but the chance to play with Lionel Messi is a huge asset to lure free agents. Matias Rojas joined as a free agent and agreed to a base contract of $150K with a guaranteed compensation of $516K. Such a move is perfect for the salary cap and, frankly, wouldn’t be possible without Messi. Henderson (who should win Executive of the Year by default) has utilized every single roster mechanism to build this superteam. Miami maintained a Supporter’s Shield pace during Messi’s absence. Since returning, he has only had one MVP moment: a free-kick against Columbus in the Shield-clinching game. He will be on the ballot, and I expect him to run away with the player vote. He is still a God to many players in this league, and it would be very hard for players to vote against him. Does he deserve to be MLS MVP in 2024? Hell no. Too many absences even though his counting stats are otherworldly. 

Back To The Topic At Hand

Goal-creating actions are defined as “the two offensive actions directly leading to a goal.” These actions can be take-ons (dribbles), passes, drawing fouls, and shooting. Evander is 6th in the league with 22 goal-creating actions. This includes the 3rd-most GCAs from a live-ball pass. Messi is second in that category, and the 1st-placed player is our next MVP candidate.

The Second Candidate: Riqui Puig

2024 MLS stats: 28 appearances (27 starts), 2,476 minutes, 13 goals (1 penalty), 15 assists (9 primary)

The Los Angeles Galaxy have been one of the biggest stories of the year. After finishing 13th in the West last season, the Galaxy are entering Decision Day in the driver’s seat for first place in the conference. Good for them. A transformative winter transfer window saw Gabriel Pec (who could be a MVP candidate but it looks like he’s a lock for Newcomer of the Year) and Joseph Paintsil join the team. In many ways, the Galaxy are a clone of the Timbers. Both teams have significant defensive deficiencies, added a key piece in the winter transfer window, and are electric going forward. Puig is the Galaxy’s centerpiece, and he would be a MVP candidate in any other season. But this year is different, and he doesn’t even have the most goal contributions on his team (Pec does). His play has been elevated by the players around him, and the same argument used for Puig also applies to Evander. The Brazilian’s counting stats are just better. There was a legitimate debate at the beginning of the year after Neville’s proclamation about which number 10 was better: Puig or Evander. If only there was some way to compare them.

Puig is the ball-progressor extraordinaire of the Galaxy’s incredible attack. Portland and LA don’t play the same brand of soccer, and LA’s game model emphasizes more possession. Puig is a lot more than a “touch merchant” but the stat sheet doesn’t lie. Evander and Puig have a lot of the same strengths. But the Galaxy are a more complete team at this moment in time. When Neville issued his mission statement about Evander’s brilliance, it was met with mockery by many pundits and other media members. One mustachioed pundit took Puig and cited his team’s table position as the reason why. Once again, table position doesn’t matter. An elite player is an elite player. If Evander was on the Galaxy they’d be just as good if not better. However, our third candidate is the poster child for “table position doesn’t matter.”

The Third Candidate: Christian Benteke

2024 MLS stats: 29 appearances (29 starts), 2504 minutes, 23 goals (3 penalties), 7 assists (5 primary)

Benteke will win the Golden Boot. He has a 4-goal lead heading into Decision Day. His contributions have been paramount to DC’s season. When a player has contributed to 57% of his team’s goals, he deserves to be in the MVP conversation. Among the candidates listed above, Benteke’s 57% is the highest mark in that category. Evander has 51%, Messi has 43%, and Puig has 41%. He is the best striker in the league, and there’s no debate to be had about it.

But does a pure striker deserve a MVP campaign in a league built for #10s? The last striker to win MVP was Josef Martinez in 2018. During that season, the Venezuelan set the single-season goalscoring record with 31. Carlos Vela broke that record one year later. Benteke is nowhere close to Martinez’s tally. DC has been a fringe playoff team for most of 2024 but back-to-back wins against Nashville and New England have propelled them into the 8th spot in the East. By the way, the Eastern Conference is very top-heavy. Every Western Conference playoff team has a positive goal differential. DC and Montreal (currently occupying 8th and 9th respectively) each have negative double-digit goal differentials. That makes Benteke’s contributions even more important. DC has conceded the second-most goals this season. However, I think that the Golden Boot is a much better award for Benteke’s exploits. If he managed to challenge Vela’s single-season record of 34 goals, he should be up for MVP. He deserves recognition, and he’ll get it with a Best XI spot and a Golden Boot. This year is just too crowded for the league’s top scorer to earn MVP consideration. Nuts!

The Top Tier of Candidates

Each of the players listed above had an excellent 2024. They deserved some form of recognition for their brilliant campaigns. In a normal year, they would be serious MVP contenders. But the overall exploits of the next two players have put them squarely in Evander’s tier. 

The Fourth Candidate: Cucho Hernandez

2024 MLS stats: 26 appearances (22 starts), 2,141 minutes, 19 goals (2 penalties), 13 assists (9 primary)

Christian Benteke might be the best striker in the league, but Cucho Hernandez is the best forward in the league. There’s a difference! Benteke plays like a classic number 9 but Hernandez shows up all over the attacking third.

Cucho is everywhere and nowhere all at once. He is equally likely to take a shot from distance or play a perfect through-ball to an on-rushing wingback or second forward. He leads the line while also splitting out wide. Six players have more than 30 goal involvements this season: Benteke, Denis Bouanga (aided by 7 penalties), Messi, Cucho, Luciano Acosta, and Evander. This is a very crowded MVP field. 

The Columbus Crew are the only other superpower in MLS this season besides Inter Miami. Both teams have elite coaches and incredibly deep squads. Columbus made a run to the final of CONCACAF Champions Cup before losing in a one-leg final to Pachuca. The Crew also defeated LAFC in the Leagues Cup Final to clinch their second trophy in 8 months after their MLS Cup victory in December 2023. Good for them! However, the MVP award is for MLS play, not extra competitions. The Crew have allowed the 3rd-fewest goals (38) in the league, and the biggest reason for that is their dominance of possession. Only the Houston Dynamo (who have also allowed 38 goals) have a higher average possession than the Columbus Crew. That number should be higher but a stubborn Wilfried Nancy refused to sign a backup goalkeeper ahead of a September game against the Seattle Sounders. The Crew conceded 4 goals while down a man and with a midfielder in between the sticks. Cucho’s argument against getting the MVP is similar to Messi’s, although the Colombian has played 700 more minutes than the Argentinean superstar. His team is stacked. They’re built to contend for championships. Only Miami is in their stratosphere. Cucho is a brilliant player and worthy of the MVP, but is he truly the most valuable player of the entire league? I don’t think so. 

Like Messi, I’m going to see how Columbus fared in games without Hernandez. Without their star striker, the Crew are 3-2-1 in MLS play. The three wins were road victories in Montreal, Chicago, and Orlando. The draws took place in Nashville and Salt Lake City. The only loss is the infamous Seattle game when the Crew had to play with down a man and with a midfielder in goal for the entirety of the second half. Before their starting goalkeeper was sent off, the Crew were in control despite starting a heavily rotated lineup. Like Messi, the Crew were still able to get results without their centerpiece. I think that precludes Cucho from being in the MVP conversation, despite his outstanding season. In the biggest MLS match of the year, he missed a game-tying penalty against Inter Miami. Columbus is a great team, and Cucho is a fantastic player. There are just better MVP candidates in 2024.

The Fifth Candidate: Luciano Acosta

2024 MLS Stats: 31 appearances (28 starts), 2,704 minutes, 14 goals (3 penalties), 19 assists (16 primary)

Last year’s MVP tallied 17 goals and 14 assists for Shield-winning FC Cincinnati. That’s a total of 31 goal contributions, which led MLS. Only one other player (Thiago Almada) had more than 30 goal contributions in 2023. He was the wolf among the sheep, and it showed up in the polls.

This is a landslide. No doubt about it. However, like Giovinco in 2016, he has surpassed his previous season on the stat sheet. Somehow, he’s been able to do it despite losing all three of the top strikers from the 2023 team. Brandon Vazquez made a winter move to Monterrey. Brenner left last summer to play for Udinese in Italy. His replacement, Aaron Boupendza, arrived from Al-Shabab before the transfer window closed. He chipped in with 6 goals in 14 league games to help clinch the Shield. When the 2024 season began, Boupendza became a shell of his 2023 self. He was ineffective for the Garys before an off-field injury (broken jaw in a bar fight) wiped out his Cincinnati career. Suddenly, Cincy had no DP strikers and were shuffling their lineup constantly due to injuries at center back. The 2023 Cincy team was able to ride their first-choice starting lineup to a Shield. 2024 Cincy has been held together by Acosta and head coach Pat Noonan. In many ways, Acosta’s exploits in 2024 have been far more impressive than his MVP-winning 2023. 

However, there are knocks against Acosta. First of all, Cincinnati isn’t as successful as they were in 2023. He isn’t the big fish that he was last season with only Thiago Almada in his hemisphere production-wise. Five other players have surpassed 30 goal contributions. There’s also the issue of voter fatigue. Remember, Preki is the only player in MLS history to win MVP twice. His second MVP occurred 6 years after his first win. Since the Portland Timbers entered MLS in 2011, there have only been back-to-back MVP finalists twice. Robbie Keane finished runner-up to Mike Magee in 2013, then he took home the trophy in 2014. Zlatan Ibrahimovic was a finalist in 2018 and 2019. Philadelphia Union goalkeeper Andre Blake was a finalist in 2020 and 2022, but 2020’s MVP race was another mess due to the uneven schedules and general chaos of the season. Acosta should be another finalist this year, but does he have the juice to repeat in such a crowded field? What is his MVP moment? Are they going to keep replaying that goal against Charlotte from last season? 

On paper, Acosta matches up fairly well with Evander. While playing in a weaker Eastern Conference, the Argentine has been able to surpass his 2023 season. I think that the MVP race will come down to Acosta and Evander. So it’s time for the biggest test of value: how well did their teams do without them in the squad?

The Tiebreaker

Acosta has only missed 2 league games all season. In those games, Cincinnati’s record was 1-0-1. The win was a 4-1 beatdown of Montreal, and the loss was a 1-0 defeat to the Chicago Fire. That’s positive marks for his durability, but Evander has him beat on a goal involvements per game basis. The Brazilian has also separated himself from Acosta by being a more valuable player to his team.

Evander has missed more games than Acosta this year due to injury and suspension, and the Timbers are 2-2-2 without him in the lineup. Both wins were at home (Colorado and Nashville). The Portland Timbers are 0-1-2 on the road without Evander in the team. One of those games was the team’s worst performance of the season (Charlotte). The Brazilian played a huge role in the team’s three road wins this season. His first MVP moment at Yankee Stadium was the match-winning wonder-goal at the death. MVP moment #4 was the brilliant free-kick at Austin that opened the scoring. Against San Jose, he created and scored the opening goal by himself before finding Rodriguez for the eventual winner. I fully expect the MVP race to be whittled down to both of these outstanding players. Cucho and Messi each have outside shots and good cases, but no players have been more important to their teams than Acosta and Evander.

The Verdict

The MVP award is somehow tied into team success. Without Evander in 2024, where would the Portland Timbers be? None of the players listed above (except Benteke) have been as crucial to their team’s success as Evander. He has had to perform to a different standard than anyone else in order to be included in the conversation. When the eyes of the league were on the Timbers, he rose to the occasion. No one else on this list has come close to his streak of 11 consecutive games with a goal involvement. No one else on this list has this catalogue of MVP moments. At the beginning of the year, Phil Neville said that Evander is the best #10 in the Western Conference. His statement was met with ridicule by people who were too busy looking at a poor defense and not at the wizardry that was right in front of their eyes. For the entire season, the biggest knock on him was something completely out of his control. During their last two home matches of the season, poor finishing and some excellent goalkeeping kept him from continuing his streak. As he enters Decision Day tied with Acosta on 33 goal involvements, he has a chance to make the final push for the MVP. The Timbers are headed to Seattle with the Cascadia Cup and playoff seeding on the line. When Evander visited Lumen Field in September of 2023, he unleashed a brilliant shot from outside the box that tied the game and had Stefan Frei grasping at straws. That strike made color commentator Phil Neville (yes, the current Portland head coach) briefly swap bodies with his older brother. 

The moments of brilliance were there in 2023. Now the consistency has arrived. No other player in MLS has been more valuable to his team in 2024 than the magical Brazilian wearing the number 10 in the moon colony of America. This award, if he wins, won’t be given to him. It will be earned. And no one has earned it more than Evander.