This is now the 4th edition of my “The Case For” series. For the previous three, I looked at Diego Gutierrez (link), Santiago Moreno (link), and Jaroslaw Niezgoda (link). Gutierrez’s was based on injuries and a chance to earn a couple starts, Santi’s was about his trade request, and Niezgoda’s dealt with his best fit in the team. Rather than focusing on players who were struggling to find form, it’s time to highlight one of the Timbers’ best players this season and the biggest snub from any of the season-ending award nominations.
I really wish I was writing on this blog last year. Any reader would’ve been inundated with constant shouts to start Zac McGraw. Let’s travel back in time to the year 2022 (I’m scared). Dario Zuparic and Larrys Mabiala were injured as the season began, so McGraw started the first five games. After making the last of those starts on March 27 against Orlando, McGraw didn’t start another game in MLS play until July 3rd in Nashville (he started in the Open Cup match against LAFC on May 10). There were a couple reasons for that. Bill Tuiloma was in the form of his life and was making contributions in the attack that were desperately needed. You can’t sit Dario Zuparic if he’s healthy. That left Larrys Mabiala as the other center back that was getting starts over McGraw in that time frame. McGraw started in Nashville because Tuiloma was suspended (red card) and Zuparic was on the bench for some reason. His next start came on August 26 against Seattle, where he put in a Man of the Match performance as the Timbers lifted the Cascadia Cup. He started the next three games (all wins) before missing the next two (a draw in Columbus and a loss to LAFC at home). He started the pivotal Decision Day match in Salt Lake before leaving in the 35th minute due to injury. The Timbers’ record in games he started was 5-4-3 including the Open Cup loss and the Decision Day match when he left early with an injury. That’s a pretty good record for a player that was effectively the 4th choice center back. The Timbers wouldn’t have made that late push for the playoffs without him. Going into 2023, his role seemed uncertain again until the surprising trade of Bill Tuiloma a week before the season began. In 2023, McGraw has become a crucial player for the Timbers. If he’s healthy, he’s starting. And when the nominations for MLS awards were released today, he was not listed in any category. Not even Defender of the Year.
This is an unforgivable snub. We know that the national media don’t really talk about the Timbers unless they’re beating Seattle or have won 4 games in a row, but these nominations came from the clubs themselves. That means that the Portland Timbers decided not to nominate their best defender for the defending award. Are you kidding me? McGraw should be a nominee at the BARE MINIMUM. He should be a favorite to win the award, because there is a very strong case that he’s been one of the best center backs in MLS this season.
Let’s begin with the basic facts. McGraw has played in 27 out of 32 MLS matches this season, including all three Leagues Cup fixtures. He started the season opener and started every game (except Open Cup and the May 6th game against Austin) until June 24th, when he departed for the Gold Cup with the Canadian National Team. He returned to the lineup on July 15. He missed three games in that span; the Timbers went 0-2-1. After the Leagues Cup ended, he got sick, missed one start (Houston) but came off the bench against Vancouver. Since he returned to the lineup, the Timbers have gone 7 games unbeaten. He will miss this weekend’s game against Montreal with a knee injury. That’s a ton of starts and playing time for McGraw in 2023. He has now formed a first choice center-back pairing with Dario Zuparic. Zuparic got nominated for Defender of the Year. So did Claudio Bravo. This is no slight at both of those players. They’ve both been great this season. But McGraw being left out is criminal, especially when you look at the stats.
Any defender who leads the league in any defensive category has to be considered for the top prize for defending. That’s exactly what McGraw has done in 2023. As of October 5th, he has 153 clearances, which leads the league. Miguel Tapias of Minnesota is second with 150, but he’s started 30 games in MLS. McGraw has 3 more despite playing 360 minutes less of soccer. That’s just a single stat, and it is impressive given the amount of games he’s played. But it’s not the only category where he’s lighting up the stat sheet.
If you take his stats over the past 365 days (pretty much this entire season), his dominance becomes overwhelming. These are his stats averaged out per 90 minutes of game time. He’s played 2,367 minutes across all competitions in the past year. That’s just over one and a half days of soccer. Kind of nuts to think about. Anyways, there’s a ton of green here. That clearances number I mentioned earlier is in the 98th percentile of all center backs. But Timbers fans are already looking at another stat. McGraw isn’t just elite at clearing anything in his hemisphere. He is also absolutely fearless. 1.75 blocks per 90 is in the 95th percentile. 1.18 shots blocked per 90 is in the 96th percentile. Those are defensive actions that every center back has to perform. The tackles/90 number is decent, but when Cristhian Paredes and Diego Chara (8th and 21st in MLS in tackles won, respectively) are in front of him, he doesn’t need to make a ton of them. Claudio Bravo is 16th in the same category as well. McGraw is 74th overall, but 10th when you narrow down the list to center backs only. He’s got 2 excellent ball-winners ahead of him, another good one playing to his left, and even Santiago Moreno is 66th in the league in this category. Finishing top-10 in his position in this major defensive category is still incredibly impressive. McGraw leads the Timbers in interceptions with 41, which is 24th in the league and 12th among center backs. This is an impressive individual stat sheet, but McGraw definitely cares more about team success. So how good are the Timbers when he is playing and when he’s out?
I’m not going to count any Open Cup matches in this analysis. The team was obviously rotating for those games. I’ve already mentioned their 0-2-1 stretch when he was at the Gold Cup. If you add in the Houston game, the Austin game, and the Vancouver game that he didn’t start, that number goes to 0-3-3. When he starts, the Timbers are 12-7-10. That’s not incredibly impressive, but the season only began to really shift from bad to good in the past month. The Timbers haven’t won without him. I’m going to ignore his absence for this weekend’s match because I’m going to talk about that in the Montreal preview. What this illustrates is how important he is to the Timbers. There is also one other stat that shows us how important he is to this team.
This is a graph of several players and the difference between goals scored with and without them on the pitch plotted with the team’s xG within the same criteria. Besides the shocking appearance of the Roldans (eww, but at least it tracks for Cristian) and a surprise appearance from Bryan Acosta (hi Bryan), this is the best piece of evidence I have for McGraw’s importance to the team as a whole. Taking finishing into account, this team is scoring about 1.7 more goals per 90 with McGraw on the pitch. The xG difference calculates at about +0.75, but xG doesn’t win games. Goals do. Only Cristian Roldan and Miles Robinson have a larger goal differential than McGraw does. This isn’t a coincidence. When he is on the field, the team is scoring more. Which means they are winning more. Robinson and Tristan Blackmon are the only center backs besides McGraw who have separated themselves in a positive way on this graph. Let’s see if they got nominated for Defender of the Year.
MLS Defender of the Year Nominees
Alba, Jordi (MIA)
Blackmon, Tristan (VAN)
Boxall, Michael (MIN)
Bravo, Claudio (POR)
Carlos, Antônio (ORL)
Corbo, Gabriele (MTL)
Elliott, Jack (PHI)
Escobar, Franco (HOU)
Franklin, Kobe (TOR)
Glad, Justen (RSL)
Glesnes, Jakob (PHI)
Gómez Andrade, Yeimar (SEA)
Gray, Tayvon (NYC)
Jansson, Robin (ORL)
Jones, DeJuan (NE)
Lennon, Brooks (ATL)
Malanda, Adilson (CLT)
Martins, Thiago (NYC)
Maxsø, Andreas (COL)
Mensah, Jonathan (SJ)
Miazga, Matt (CIN)
Miller, Kamal (MIA)
Moore, Shaq (NSH)
Moreira, Steven (CLB)
Mosquera, Yerson (CIN)
Ndenbe, Logan (SKC)
Nouhou (SEA)
Palacios, Diego (LAFC)
Parker, Tim (STL)
Reyes, Andrés (RBNY)
Robinson, Miles (ATL)
Rodrigues (SJ)
Romney, Dave (NE)
Rosero, Dany (SKC)
Sviatchenko, Erik (HOU)
Tafari, Nkosi (DAL)
Tapias, Micky (MIN)
Veselinović, Ranko (VAN)
Waterman, Joel (MTL)
Williams, Derrick (DC)
Zimmerman, Walker (NSH)
Zuparic, Dario (POR)
By golly, they did! Other notable names on this list include past winners like Walker Zimmerman and Jakob Glesnes. 2023 standouts Rodrigues, Yerson Mosquera and Yeimar are also nominated. Time to compare McGraw to these other nominees.
Tristan Blackmon Scouting Report
2,430 minutes played.
Miles Robinson Scouting Report
2,187 minutes played.
Walker Zimmerman Scouting Report
1,661 minutes played.
Jakob Glesnes Scouting Report
2,700 minutes played.
Rodrigues Scouting Report
2,900 minutes played.
Yerson Mosquera Scouting Report
2,159 minutes played.
Yeimar Scouting Report
2,797 minutes played.
This entire argument is nit-picky. I’m ignoring several other players who have a good chance at winning Defender of the Year. I’m also deliberately choosing defending stats while ignoring other important ones like passing and shooting. But this is a DEFENDING AWARD, so it’s going to get judged on defense. McGraw’s stats look as good or better than several in this list. He should be getting votes and would have a legitimate chance at winning this award. This is a snub that every Timbers fan should be upset about, especially when players like JORDI ALBA (barely played) and two of McGraw’s own teammates have been nominated. Tackles aren’t the most important stat for defense. McGraw’s impact on the team transcends his own excellent defensive output. Would the Timbers be in a playoff position without his tireless defensive work? The stats say no. It’s about time there was some respect put on his name. He went from the fourth-choice center back at the start of last year to an elite player who earned a national call-up for the first time in under two years. Now we dread games when he’s not playing. If that isn’t a Defender of the Year, I don’t know what is.
