The Case for Jaroslaw Niezgoda

A polarizing player has a role to play in order for the Timbers to make the playoffs and beyond in 2023.

In my preview of the Monterrey match (link: https://cascadiafc.substack.com/p/portland-timbers-rayados-de-monterrey),  I said that Jaroslaw Niezgoda should be starting. A fair amount of people promptly told me I was wrong. Some might quickly own up to this and apologize after the fact. However, following Niezgoda’s brief but electric cameo against Monterrey, it’s time to double down.

Niezgoda is another player who is on an exorbitant salary. His contract expires at the end of this season, and I highly doubt that he would get a renewal. Until then, he’s still a part of the team, and he has a role to play in this current squad. 

Striker is the strongest position on the depth chart. Yes, we have a large amount of wingers, but the most quality depth is up top. Franck Boli and Felipe Mora are 1st and 2nd on the depth chart, with Niezgoda now 3rd choice. In order to truly unlock Niezgoda’s abilities (and the rest of the team’s) there needs to be a change in formation.  

Let’s begin with the last match he played in: Monterrey. Niezgoda came on in the 85th minute for Dairon Asprilla. It seemed like he didn’t make a single mistake in his time on the pitch. Yes, he misplayed a pass, but it was the right pass to make. His chance in front of the net was from a tough angle and I would be hard pressed to call it a big chance. But he was actively making things happen in the final third. He was playing off of Felipe Mora, Yimmi Chara, and Sebastian Blanco and looked incredibly comfortable. The Timbers had their best attacking stretch of the match with Niezgoda on the field. Since his injury, he hasn’t lit the league on fire. But for bits of this season, he’s shown enough effort and skill that he can’t be written off completely. So how can the Timbers best utilize him?

This is a rough outline of what the Timbers would look like with a back three. There is one other option that I will get into later, but this is the best lineup the Timbers could put out with three at the back. Not every position has a truly natural backup, but some players are still capable enough to perform out of position. Marvin Loria would make a very solid backup wingback. Same with Yimmi Chara. The back seven seems pretty settled, but the front three is pretty interesting. I’ve shown you one version of the front three, so let’s look at the other option.

Now here’s where things get REALLY interesting. Evander has been operating as a lone 10 for the majority of the season already. The most intriguing part is the two strikers. The Timbers’ striker room is full of players who aren’t incredible line-leaders, but who are very skillful and creative. Two strikers up top can occupy opposing center backs and create more space for midfield runners. Dairon Asprilla didn’t really fit into the first setup, but he’s very talented aerially and could see a spike in his goal tally if he was in a better position to focus on finishing rather than creating. These aren’t knocks against him by any means, but rather utilizing his strengths. That’s what any version of the back three would do for the Timbers. Every player’s strengths would be utilized with extra cover for their weaknesses. 

I’ve already made the point of a back three multiple times this season. And this article isn’t about why we need the back three. This is about Jaroslaw Niezgoda. He’s also listed on both depth charts. Why is that?

I can’t get that Monterrey performance out of my mind. It also took me back to a sunny July afternoon in Seattle. We all know the paratrooper game. It was a fantastic viewing both on TV and in person. But the unsung hero of that match was, you guessed it, Jaroslaw Niezgoda. He registered 1 goal and 1 assists that afternoon. Of course, the narrative of the banner-raising overshadowed a lot of the Timbers’ achievements on the pitch. But Niezgoda was brilliant. The goal was one of the best team moves I’ve seen post-Valeri. Perfectly connected passes leading to an inch-perfect Blanco cross and a dunking header from Niezgoda at the back post. But the assist to Dairon Asprilla was the best contribution Jaro made in that match. During that Seattle game, much like he did against Monterrey, he split out to the right. From that position, he was able to fire in a perfect pass and allow Asprilla to take his time to fire home the perfect nail in Seattle’s self-constructed coffin. So as a striker on the right side, he can already create great moments. But I’m also very interested in the possibility of him playing behind the focal point as well and becoming more of a second striker. He still has excellent shooting chops. But if he’s more of a late arriver rather than a line-leader, this team can be even more dangerous in the final third. Either way, he still has talent. There is still a role for him to play during this playoff push, when the goals have to come if the Timbers are hoping to see the postseason. 

How likely is the back three? Giovanni Savarese experimented with it at the tail end of last season. Keep in mind, we still controlled our own destiny heading into the season finale against RSL. No Diego Chara hurt us from the outset, but there was still a possibility of finding a victory before Zac McGraw exited in the first half with an injury. The Timbers switched to the back three for the August 26th Seattle match, and used it for the rest of the season. In those 7 matches, the Timbers went 4-1-2. That’s also in order. They won the first 4, drew the 5th, and lost the last two. The Timbers should’ve taken a point from the LAFC loss, but they also should’ve lost in Columbus (I am the #1 Bill Tuiloma face-assist appreciator). It is also worth noting how much stronger this season’s squad is compared to last year. Evander is a legitimate 10, Franck Boli has been fantastic, and Miguel Araujo is an upgrade on Tuiloma. There are so many good players on this year’s Timbers team, but they’re only recently rounding into a connected squad on the pitch. The back three is not a fix to an already massive issue, but it is an improvement on the current setup. Specifically in transition defense. The Timbers’ defense has been a lot stronger than the attack this season, but there are still massive weaknesses in transition. An extra CB can help mitigate the danger if the midfield turns the ball over in a bad spot. So, is it likely? This team is nowhere near as reliant on penalty kicks because the attack does create chances. The finishing is still iffy, but if you create chances, you’ll score (that argument should hold a lot of weight but the Seattle Sounders continue to innovate and prove that point wrong). The talent on the pitch can keep the attack humming while erasing our biggest weakness. I don’t know when we’ll see a back three, but I do think that we will see it by the Seattle game on September 2nd. That’s my best educated guess.

Jaroslaw Niezgoda is often the scapegoat for Timbers fans. While I do believe some of the frustration is warranted, it’s not entirely his fault. The injuries sapped his confidence and his physicality but it seems like they both have returned. When he was the undisputed #1 striker, he was a non-factor on the pitch. With competition for playing time, he woke up. To be absolutely clear, he is not the biggest key to making the playoffs. But he is intertwined with the best possible tactical setup for the team. He only has two goals this season, and he’s now the 3rd striker on the depth chart. Figuring out how to utilize him (and the rest of the team) turns a playoff miss into a deep MLS Cup run.