2024 Portland Timbers Season Preview

After two seasons with no playoffs, can the Timbers return to the promised land and beyond in 2024?

The season begins in a week, and it will be the 14th year that the Timbers have spent in MLS. Across those previous 13 seasons, there have only been 3 permanent head coaches. With the 14th season comes the 4th head coach in their MLS history: Phil Neville. 

My initial stance on the Neville hire has both changed and stayed the same. I believe that Neville’s results at other jobs aren’t great, but his biggest achievement was guiding Inter Miami to the playoffs in 2022. I’ve bought into the tactical flexibility that he has preached during preseason. One hallmark of recent Timbers teams was their willingness to sit back, absorb pressure, and counterattack. Neville wants his Timbers team to have the ball and dominate possession. However, I remain steadfast that any failures under Neville’s leadership will point directly at the front office. Ned Grabavoy and Merritt Paulson made the decision to hire him knowing that it would cause some strife within the fanbase, and there are still 2 open DP slots that the team needs to fill this season. Unless they were really impressed by his 2022 playoff berth, they have to do the necessary things to give him a full roster. 

Speaking of roster rules, I’m thoroughly disgusted with MLS entering this season. In 2023, MLS became the victim of something bigger than itself: Lionel Messi. While the long-term effects of Messi’s arrival are yet to be realized, the short-term effects are clear as day. The league had the option to make improvements to all teams in the offseason, and they chose not to. It is a tragedy that MLS teams are entering 2024 with the same roster restrictions that they had in 2023. This is the time to capitalize on Messi’s arrival, where the silly little league us Americans have created can be recognized internationally for what it is: the Pac-12 of club soccer. And most decisions made by the league’s governing body (the Board of Governors) are taking the league further into the past rather than forward. 

I’ve already discussed the ridiculous decision to pull senior teams out of the US Open Cup in a previous article, and the league quickly put out a press release saying they were “working to find a solution.” Nothing but crickets from MLS in regards to the Open Cup since that press release. Pulling out of the Open Cup is terrible for the sport in this country, but MLS continues to limit growth of their own league in another way. This past offseason began with rumors of a 4th DP and an increase to the salary cap. Personally, I was hoping that the league’s Board of Governors would raise the salary cap by a significant amount. A 4th DP is interesting, but the difference between elite MLS rosters and average MLS rosters is quality depth. Especially in a league that insists on playing through international windows and giving a ton of attention to the players that are playing in those international windows and are not with their club teams. With the idiotic decisions of the scheduling committee coupled with the usual roster attrition that teams go through, it makes sense to expand the salary cap so some teams aren’t completely derailed if the injury list gets too long. More competition for places also pushes players to play better, so the quality of play would also increase. A 4th DP would just allow teams to bring in one extra star when the whole roster needs a boost. Don Garber and the Board of Governors are thinking in the short-term and not the long-term. There will be a World Cup within the United States during 2026. This is a perfect time to get casual fans to actually pay attention to this stupid (I say that lovingly) league. Rather than treating your fans (or customers, since that’s how every person is viewed by every company in America) like an ATM (from ridiculously overpriced jerseys, concessions, and the price of MLS Season Pass), treat them like people and give them the things that they want. The greatest player of all time has chosen YOUR LEAGUE to ply his trade before his swan song (I think he retires after the 2026 World Cup) and now you have a brilliant opportunity to capitalize on that. Sigh.

Time to report some news!

Colombian Contract Extensions

Once again, the salary numbers will become public when the MLSPA salary release happens in May. Santiago Moreno finally got the extension he was craving, and his mood has been lifted by his raise and the presence of his family in Portland. I assumed this would be coming, so it doesn’t surprise me one bit. Juan David Mosquera’s extension is eyebrow-raising, but not in a bad way. Locking him down until 2027 is a good piece of business. Moreno is now under contract until 2026. Both have club options in 2028 and 2027, respectively. However, Mosquera’s extension might allow the Timbers some more roster flexibility.

In order for the Timbers’ roster to be compliant in 2024, one of their four U22 Initiative players (Moreno, Mosquera, David Ayala, and Antony) has to come off the tag before the roster compliance date (Friday, February 23). This wasn’t an issue last season because David Ayala was put on the Season-Ending Injury (SEI) tag following his unfortunate ACL tear. Antony was able to be added as a U22 because the Timbers technically only had 2 U22 players on the active roster. This was an underrated storyline to the offseason, and I was very interested to see how they would handle it. Each U22 Initiative player must occupy the slot for 2 years. Santiago Moreno has done that for two years, so he’s going to come off that tag for this season because he signed his second contract. Mosquera’s situation is more interesting. He hasn’t reached the two seasons necessary to get out of the tag, but his tag will expire in August. This means that the Timbers will have an open U22 slot late in the season. Where it gets more interesting is next offseason. Ayala will come off the tag next offseason, which would leave Portland with one U22 Initiative player on the roster. How does that affect this season? Well, you see, there’s an interesting (stupid) rule about how U22s affect the Designated Players you can sign.

In order to sign 3 senior DPs, there can only be one U22 Initiative player on the roster. That’s the reasoning behind my first Bold Prediction for the 2024 Timbers: they will only sign one DP this season and leave the third slot open. That DP will be a striker, and it makes sense given the current construction of the roster.

State of the Roster: 2024 Season Opener

Let’s begin with the back three. Given the current construction of the roster, a back three makes the most sense. Given the yearly tradition of preseason knee surgeries, the Timbers are down to bare bones at left wing-back. 2023 draft pick Jaden Jones-Riley and academy talent Sawyer Jura could fill in there, but I don’t think that’s realistic for the first part of the season. Without a true left wing-back on the roster, Phil Neville might have to deviate from his main tactic. However, he has been preaching about tactical flexibility during the entirety of preseason.

Bravo is expected to be back in mid-April, and Loria’s expected to be back in May. The 4-2-3-1 that the Timbers have been used to is set to see a return. Eric Miller is not a left back, but he can cover the position adequately enough. Plus his defensive solidity would allow Mosquera to drive further forward. I think this is the look that the Timbers will use until Bravo returns from injury. With all the technicalities out of the way, let’s dive into who will be playing where.

Goalkeeper

Maxime Crepeau is the biggest addition of the offseason. Last season the Timbers conceded 58 goals from 44.1 xGa, and Ned Grabavoy decided to load up at the position during the winter. Joining Crepeau between the sticks is fellow Canadian James Pantemis. Even if Crepeau hadn’t joined, I would’ve been very satisfied with Pantemis’ arrival. But Grabavoy didn’t stop there. Trey Muse joins from USL side Charleston Battery. His addition makes sense when you remember that MLS likes to play during international windows. Both Crepeau and Pantemis could be gone for the Gold Cup, so it makes sense to add a quality third-stringer. Crepeau gives the Timbers a quality between the sticks that they haven’t had since Donovan Ricketts. The biggest position of need entering the offseason has been addressed. Aljaz Ivacic is still hanging around in the periphery until they can find a suitable move for him.

Position Grade: A

Center Back

One player that does not need to hang around in the periphery is Dario Zuparic. After the season ended, Tom Bogert of The Athletic reported that Zuparic had requested a trade. There hasn’t been an outright retraction of that request, but based on his presence around the team I can safely say that Zuparic will be a Portland Timber on February 24th. He would be starting if the team was using a back three. The other prized acquisition of the winter window is penciled in at left center-back. Kamal Miller isn’t just a good defender, he’s a left-sided center back who is incredible with the ball at his feet. He’s a caliber of player that the Timbers haven’t had since Liam Ridgewell. Zac McGraw should’ve gotten some recognition for his 2023 season, where he could’ve won Defender of the Year if MLS pundits actually watched Timbers games. Somehow, those same pundits are expecting a “breakout” year from him. I guess getting his first call-up to the Canadian men’s national team and becoming a crucial part of the XI wasn’t enough of a breakout. Given the international duty that both Miller and McGraw will both see during this season, it makes sense that the Timbers have 3 backups. One of which is Miguel Araujo, who will likely be on international duty when Miller and McGraw are gone. When he was first signed last season, I said that his best role would be on the right side of a back three. He promptly played in a center-back pairing and did not impress. I think it’s too early to judge him, but right now he’s a depth piece. Same with Larrys Mabiala, who is in the final year of his contract with the Timbers. I don’t expect him to see the field often, but he is a key leader in the locker room. Miller’s addition takes a pretty good center back room to a very good one.

Grade: A

Fullback/Wingback

This is one of two “danger areas” on the roster entering 2024. Normally, this position grouping would be a solid B+ or A-, but Claudio Bravo’s surgery followed by Marvin Loria’s surgery leaves the Timbers without a true left back. Last year, the fullback play was disappointing, but I’m going to chalk that up to tactics rather than talent. Under Giovanni Savarese and Miles Joseph, the fullbacks were often inverted in possession. This led to one thing when the ball was turned over: acres of space out wide to attack into. Fullback inversion usually works the best when one fullback stays back while the other one goes forward. This would actually work with the current state of the roster. Eric Miller is not a natural left back, but was able to provide adequate cover there last season (just ignore the third Seattle game). Juan Mosquera offers a lot going forward and should be encouraged to do so. Jaden Jones-Riley was solid for T2 last season and should enter 2024 as Mosquera’s backup. Another interesting tweak would be moving Kamal Miller over to left back in case of emergency. Sawyer Jura signed a Homegrown contract this offseason, however he won’t officially join the senior roster until 2026. However, I was impressed with him during training sessions playing as a left back. He could be in line for some minutes with the first team if those performances are impressive enough to Phil Neville, but I think it’s a longshot. Speaking of Neville, the coach’s son Harvey is still on trial with the team. He’s technically a right back, and I think that he gets signed to a T2 deal next week. We should not be paying any compensation for him, and I will be upset if we do. He is another option at the position, but he hasn’t officially joined the team yet. Bottomline, the Timbers are set at right back but are going to be forced into makeshift options on the left side while awaiting Bravo’s return (ironically, Justin Rasmussen would’ve been a perfect left wing-back.)

Grade: C+ (A- for right back, D for left back)

Defensive Midfield

Finding the balance for this group is going to be a tough task. I think we saw the best version of this midfield with Cristhian Paredes and Diego Chara playing together last season. At the beginning of the year, the pairing was Eryk Williamson alongside Chara. Paredes was used as a super-sub and was often the most dangerous player Savarese could bring off the bench. After Williamson’s ACL tear, David Ayala was healthy enough to start. He also looked really good before his season was ended by an ACL tear. Paredes took the opportunity and ran with it, riding an excellent season to a Supporter’s Player of the Year award. Now it’s 2024, and Ayala and Williamson are healthy. Williamson has started 2 of the 3 preseason games, and has played major minutes in both. Ayala’s availability for the season opener is still a question mark, but he should be included on the bench. This is a key year for this midfield. Bryan Acosta and Noel Caliskan were released, so the number one priority is avoiding injury. I see this midfield with 2 different roles: one player who can aid in the attack and defend, while the other is the shield of the backline. Paredes and Williamson will continue to battle for the more advanced role, and Chara is still Sharpied into the shield role. I think Ayala works best as a shield, and he needs to see the field often this year. We know how talented he is, and he can definitely earn some starts either in place of Chara or alongside him. Figuring out the best balance for this midfield is a tough task for Neville, but he has a loaded cupboard to work with.

Grade: A-

The Attacking Three

Last season, Evander didn’t adapt to the 10 role as many were expecting him to. He played his best soccer as an 8. So did Santiago Moreno. The wings were very poor last year, and didn’t contribute enough in the final third. Entering 2024, the Timbers are barren out wide. Yimmi Chara and Sebastian Blanco departed the club this offseason, and no replacements have walked through the door. Once again, I think this is a factor of a back three roster build. You don’t need true wingers with a back three, and all of the wings could play in the middle. Let’s start with Moreno. He’s always been solid on the wing, but he came alive as an 8 last year. A return to the right isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but I do think the Timbers are sacrificing some of his ability with him on the wing. Dairon Asprilla could play on the left, the right, or up top. I’m very interested to see how Neville utilizes him. He’s an elder statesman in the locker room, and always does something when he’s on the pitch. Antony had a full off-season to adjust to life in Portland, and it seems to be paying off. He can play on either the left or the right, but is better on the left. There really isn’t any depth outside of Asprilla and possibly Nathan Fogaca, so the team cannot afford any injuries in these positions. I think Evander’s second turn as a 10 will be better than his first, and taking the #10 shirt can only help. If Evander is unavailable, Moreno is a great replacement. I’m bullish on this group of forwards in 2024. 

Grade: B (A- for the 10, B- for the wings)

Striker

This has been the position of focus in recent weeks. For years, the Timbers have struggled at the striker position. The days of Fanendo Adi continue to get farther and farther away in the rear-view mirror. First came Brian Fernandez, a winger who did see success up top. Jeremy Ebobisse showed a ton of promise as the starting striker, but after Fernandez’s departure the team brought in two new strikers: Jaroslaw Niezgoda and Felipe Mora. Niezgoda looked to be the pick of the bunch, but a tragic knee injury ended his 2020 season. He showed flashes of the poacher he once was after returning from that injury, but he just wasn’t the same player. His Timbers career ended in tragedy; tearing his ACL with his team down 5 goals on a sweltering Houston pitch. Ebobisse was traded to San Jose in 2021, and boy could the Timbers use him now. Mora took the starting role in 2021, and etched his name into Timbers history with a well-placed equalizer with the last kick of regulation in the 2021 MLS Cup final. However, his 2022 was wiped out by injury, and he returned in the middle of 2023 to reclaim his starting role. It’s been a hell of a road for him. Franck Boli was brought in to compete at the striker role last season, and did everything possible except put balls in the back of the net. He opted to sign with Atletico San Luis in the winter. And lost among the striker shuffle is Nathan Fogaca. He had a brilliant debut, then did nothing, then took Jackson Ragen’s soul, then did more nothing, and then went on loan. However, he’s an absolute workhorse. First-team All-Effort. Tega Ikoba was signed as a homegrown player in 2022 and scored his first senior goal last year in Atlanta. Dairon Asprilla played up top to close out 2022, so he is another option. Depth isn’t really an issue at this position. Mora is the starter, and any one of Fogaca, Asprilla, or Ikoba could back him up. But the Timbers have two open DP spots, and it would be extremely negligent not to use one of those spots on a new striker. Mora is still very valuable off the bench and in spot starts, so it would add strength to an already deep position group. According to multiple sources around the team, a new DP striker signing is imminent. How imminent is still a matter of debate, but one will be coming this season. And a true DP striker turns a decent attack into a lethal one. 

Grade: B

Season Predictions

This is the hardest part of any preview. So much can change between February and October. Anyways, here are some predictions for 2024.

1. The Timbers will only have 2 DPs on the roster at the end of the regular season.

I already tossed out this prediction earlier in this article, but I do believe the Timbers are planning for the future. If you look at this roster, where do you see room for another DP besides striker? It would be a little different if the Timbers were planning on using a back four as the permanent look, but that’s a lot of salary (Zuparic, Araujo, Mabiala) sitting on the bench. The trade for Kamal Miller changed a lot of things, and I think a back three would get all of the best players on the pitch at one time. I’m not saying that the Timbers will be quiet during the summer transfer window, but I can see a high-TAM winger arriving during that time. I understand how important all three DP slots are. But the Timbers have parameters for their open DP slots. I do think that the incoming DP striker will be a full senior DP. The other DP would have to be either a Young DP or a DP making less than max-TAM. I’m not trying to be negative, but the Timbers could sign another senior DP in the next winter window. Ned Grabavoy has proven to be patient, and every DP signing is a massive risk. If the right deal isn’t there in the summer, I think Grabavoy will wait for the offseason to fully assess the roster. I don’t really have any other reasoning behind this prediction other than a really strong gut feeling. But my gut rarely lies, so here we go.

2. The Timbers will have a playoff spot clinched before Decision Day.

Two years out of the playoffs seems like an eternity. That’s because it is one. When 62% of teams qualify for the postseason, it’s incredibly ridiculous that the Timbers haven’t done it in the past two years. It’s not like we haven’t tried though. 2022 saw the Timbers collapse in Salt Lake City in a game that felt like the 2016 bloodbath in Vancouver. Last year, the Timbers were in a good spot but couldn’t secure a result at home against the hottest team in the league (Houston). Before 2024’s Decision Day clash in Seattle, the Timbers will host both Austin and Dallas four days apart at Providence Park. In one of those matches, they will clinch a playoff spot. 

3. Zac McGraw earns Defender of the Year votes

In 2024, McGraw will continue building on his past two seasons. Both of those seasons were excellent but garnered almost no national attention. Since MLS awards are often decided by people in faraway lands (like Ohio and Washington DC) he’s received very little love from the league’s media apparatus. He’ll turn heads at Copa America and will finally be recognized by American soccer fans and media after leading Canada to a semifinal exit at the hands of Argentina. 

4. Evander earns MVP votes

MLS MVP is a very nit-picky award. Sometimes it goes to the best player on the best team (Lucho Acosta & Carles Gil) or players that carry their entire squad (Hany Mukhtar & Carlos Vela). Evander had an adjustment year in 2023 and still led the team with 11 goals across all competitions. He also chipped in 4 assists. With better attacking talent around him, he is set to feast on MLS defenses in 2024. 

5. The Cascadia Cup will return to Portland in 2024

Both Seattle and Vancouver are celebrating their 50th anniversaries this season. Need I say more?

6. The Timbers will win a Leagues Cup knockout game

Last season, the Timbers faced a very tough draw in Leagues Cup and got knocked out in the Round of 32 by CF Monterrey. This year, they will contend with Club Leon and the Colorado Rapids in their group. The full draw hasn’t been released yet, but I doubt that the Timbers will have such a rough draw in 2024. No Open Cup prediction in this article because the status of Open Cup is still in the air.

The Rule of Three

2021

2018

2015

2012 (uhhhhhh………)

When it happens once, it’s an accident. When it happens twice, it’s a coincidence. When it happens three times, it’s science. Somehow, and in some way, the Portland Timbers will win the Western Conference in 2024. They’re entering the season opener with an incomplete roster, but it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish. There’s a new head coach in the dugout and there’s a roster that is understandably pissed off by the way last season ended. Phil Neville wants to silence the doubters, and he’s got the pieces to do so. It’s time for the Timbers to awaken from their slumber and return to the top tier of MLS.