2 Comments
Feb 19Liked by Jeremy Peterman

Your criticisms of the MLS are on target. There’s a growing arrogance that Garber personifies. I also think the players are being exploited by the ever-increasing number of games, excessive travel, and being forced to play during international windows.

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I like your mostly optimistic predictions.

I would like some clarification on the DP situation though. I really appreciate your breakdown, especially with respect to the U22 players. However, isn't there a Young Designated Player slot that fits outside the DP and U22 designations? My understanding is that we can carry 2 full DPs, 3 U22s, and 1 young DP if they fit certain age and salary conditions. I expect us to sign a DP forward within the next few weeks, then sign a YDP in the summer transfer window. I assumed Mosquera, Moreno, and Ayala would fill the U22 slots. I had thought that Antony was a U22 and the only reason we'd been able to get him in under that designation was because of Ayala's injury, but Timbers.com doesn't show him (or Mosquera) as U22s at all. It's probable that the website hasn't been accurately updated.

Here's the text of the YDP rule:

"Young Designated Player

A Designated Player who is 23 years old (or younger than the age of 23) during the League Year (the age of the player is determined by year - not date - of birth) will carry the following Young Designated Player Salary Budget Charge:

Ages 20 and younger: $150,000

Ages 21-23: $200,000

If such a Young Designated Player joins the club after the opening of the Secondary Transfer Window, he will carry the Mid-Season Young Designated Player Salary Budget Charge of $150,000.

Clubs may "buy down" the Salary Budget Charge of a Designated Player with General Allocation Money. The reduced budget charge may not be less than $150,000.

Each club will be allotted two Designated Player roster slots. Clubs with two Designated Players may add a third Designated Player by paying $150,000 to the League, which shall be split among clubs with two or fewer occupied Designated Player slots for use as General Allocation Money in the following MLS Season. Clubs must pay the $150,000 fee every year in which a third Designated Player slot is occupied on the club's roster.

If a club uses the third Designated Player slot to sign a Young Designated Player, then the club will not be obligated to pay the $150,000 charge.

Designated Player slots are not tradable."

Perhaps you're just not making a distinction between DP and YDP?

Another reason to suspect that Timbers.com may not be accurate is that Pantemis and Muse are bother listed as Homegrown players, though nothing was said about our trading for their Homegrown status, as was the case with Williamson. Also, I doubt any of them except maybe Muse, would qualify for Homegrown status based on the salary restrictions on TImbers.com. From that standpoint, it seems like Sulte and Ikobe would likely be the only ones who definitely qualify.

"Homegrown Players

Players signed through the Homegrown Player mechanism (see below in Player Acquisition Mechanisms) will receive the designation of “Homegrown Player” on a club’s roster.

There is no limit to the number of Homegrown Players a club may sign in any given year.

Homegrown Players may occupy a slot on the Senior or Supplemental Roster.

Homegrown Players on the Supplemental Roster may earn in aggregate each year up to $125,000 above the Reserve Minimum Salary ($67,360) or the Senior Minimum Salary ($85,444)."

Spotrac only shows Ayala and Moreno as U22 players. Williamson, Ikoba, and Sulte are the only Homegrown players listed. That seems accurate to me if Mosquera's new contract takes him off of U22 status?

https://www.spotrac.com/mls/portland-timbers/

If Spotrac is accurate, we have a vacant U22 slot, 1 YDP slot, and one DP slot, or 2 regular DP slots?

It's increasingly looking like we'll have to use the amnesty clause to offload Ivacic. Maybe we can move him in the summer window?

Next offseason, Loría is likely to depart, especially given this latest injury. Mabiala, Fogaça, and Ikoba will also be out of contract (at least according to Transfermarkt) and I haven't seen a compelling reason to keep any of them.

The contract statuses of Asprilla, Williamson, and Sulte are a bit vague. Transfermarkt has no info on them. At some point, I'd tried to reverse engineer when their contracts were last renewed and to deduce when they would expire. I think Sulte and Williamson's time is up after this season, which may explain why they are still with us even though they seem surplus to requirements. However, Williamson starting over Paredes in preseason makes it seem like Neville sees him in future plans. On the other hand, maybe he wanted to see Williamson in preseason because he doesn't expect to play him as much in the regular season? I love Williamson but have been surprised the Paredes hasn't definitively won that spot.

It annoys me to no end that Ayala (8/6), Chara (8/6), Evander (8/10), Moreno 8/10), Paredes (8/6), and Williamson (8/10) are all essentially hybrid 8s. Maybe Chara really is more of a 6 at this point. Perhaps Ayala as well. The point being that Moreno isn't a true winger and plays his best more centrally, but he's going to be taking the same space as Evander and maybe Williamson. It might make us rely too much on Mosquera for width, exposing our defense more. Theoretically, a back 3 should mitigate that, but at the expense of either an attacker or central midfielder. Our roster construction is shit. Admittedly, it is probably old-fashioned and counterproductive to even mentally limit modern players to certain roles, especially the 10, when everyone is expected to be something of a two-way player. I'd just like to see our default formations better serve our players' preferences and tendencies rather than seeming to shoehorn them in (e.g. a player can dribble well so I bet he can also pass and score goals, so let's make him a forward, second striker, or central attacking midfielder).

As mentioned above, if we go with a three back, we've got to sit one of Antony/Asprilla or Paredes/Williamson. The former seems like the best solution to me except we'd be very narrow. In that case, I'd also be inclined to put Williamson in for more offensive creativity in exchange for sacrificing a bit of defense in central midfield. I can't see trying a back 3 without Bravo because the Millers aren't wingbacks. Maybe Kamal can be? Hell, I'd be open to experimenting with Asprilla there.

I'm also assuming a single striker formation because we don't even have one really great forward, much less two, but if we sign a DP and start them alongside Mora, that means sitting even more midfielders.

I appreciate what Neville has said about tactical flexibility and not being predictable, but we just don't have the roster, especially depth, to be anything but predictable right now. Bravo's injury, the lack of a DP forward, unproven or only depth talent at left wing, no full/wingback depth, and too many cooks in the central midfield kitchen limits our options. Maybe Kamal Miller and McGraw will get forward more than I expect and help with width a bit. We just don't have the kind of 6 to best drop deep to cover for them. I love Chara but he's no centerback.

Ugh, I hate that it looks like we're going to start a season on the back foot again.

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