Portland Timbers-Rayados de Monterrey Preview (8/4)

Getting out of the group was one battle, but the war has just begun.

After the Pyrrhic victory (loss) over Tigres, the Timbers advanced to the Leagues Cup Round of 32. Their opponent? Another Mexican juggernaut in Rayados de Monterrey.

I could spend this section describing the multiple league and continental titles (5 and 5, respectively) that Monterrey have to their name, but there are more important things to talk about. Specifically the glorious match that took place at Lumen Field last Sunday. Monterrey needed a result to qualify for this stage of the tournament, and the Seattle Sounders needed to win by 3 goals or more to advance. Within the first 7 minutes, the Sounders were already two-thirds of the way there. A shock 2-0 lead put the possibility on the table. And then Monterrey snatched it away. The Sounders, to their credit, will never stop innovating. That’s what signature MLS franchises do. They push the boundaries of what soccer teams can accomplish. And on Sunday, they became the first team to blow a 2-0 lead in Leagues Cup. They were in such a rush to make history that they couldn’t even wait until the second half to accomplish such a feat. Absolutely outstanding stuff from the team up north. But this wasn’t a show of Monterrey destroying an elite (nope) team; that’s just what Monterrey does. Out of all the Liga MX sides that have entered Leagues Cup, Monterrey looks the most dominant. They have scored 7 goals in 2 games, and have a +5 goal differential. Argentinean striker German Berterame has scored 5 of those 7 goals and is the front-runner for the Golden Boot. Similar to Tigres, Monterrey has mastered transition attacking. The RSL match is a perfect example of that. Despite only having 8 total shots (5 on target) they scored 3 goals. They don’t care about having possession because they are lethal on the counter. Rayados are heavy favorites to advance, and they have a serious chance of winning the whole tournament.

Reports have circulated that starting LB Sebastian Vegas will not play against Portland after his daughter was born earlier this week. Congratulations on your daughter, Sebastian. There aren’t any other injury worries for Rayados so I would expect to see this XI from them on Friday night.

Rogelio Funes Mori will partner Berterame up top. The only difference from the XI against Seattle is Jesus Gallardo’s inclusion at the left back spot for Vegas. Jonathan Gonzalez was once a serious international prospect for both the USA and Mexico. He chose Mexico and has only been capped 3 times. That’s rough, buddy. Hector Moreno is an El Tri fixture at center back. That’s about as much as I can tell you about this excellent team. Jordi Cortizo and Luis Romo are solid options off the bench as well. Anything but advancement to the Round of 16 would be a massive failure for this group. 

Now we move to the “hosts” of tomorrow’s match. Technically Rayados are the home team, but Providence Park is the ground where the match will be played. The Timbers could care less about the order of names on the scoreboard. Providence Park is their home, and they need every bit of advantage against this Monterrey team. The Timbers will definitely be down two players tomorrow: Evander and David Bingham. Both are suspended. Evander’s second yellow will be added to the list of horrific refereeing decisions in this tournament, and I can’t figure out for the life of me how Bingham got sent off from the bench. Must’ve happened after the whistle, sigh. Either way, now the Timbers have a problem. Evander has been fantastic during this Leagues Cup, and now the Timbers are without their number ten against their toughest opponent thus far. Oh well. Nothing can ever be easy with this team. This is also a semi-homecoming for Yimmi Chara, who played for Monterrey from 2014-2017 with two loans in the middle of his tenure.

Evander and Bingham are the only confirmed “outs.” Yimmi Chara trained in full and is good to go on Friday. Once again, the team is fully “healthy” but are now missing two players due to suspensions. Classic Timbers. Never change. The lineup, however, needs to change for this match.

Please stop yelling at me. I can hear it from the comfort of my uncomfortable couch. This is the best way to combat Monterrey. It’s time for Miguel Araujo to enter the starting lineup, and this is the perfect match to do it. Santiago Moreno can roam from flank to flank combining with the wingbacks and the midfield. Where things get interesting is the striker position. If Evander wasn’t the victim of incompetence and match fixing (ALLEGEDLY, ALLEGEDLY) there would be two tens operating underneath a single striker. I don’t think Yimmi is healthy enough to start, and he’d be the other ten in this case with Evander out. So there must be another striker. Two strikers who can finish and create chances. It is time for Jaroslaw Niezgoda to shine. He is an underrated playmaker and would do wonders in a two-striker system. With Evander’s absence allowing a little more positional flexibility, a two-striker setup is the best approach. There is another option, but I don’t believe it is very likely. The Timbers could stick to a 4-2-3-1 and just start Sebastian Blanco into Evander’s position. I don’t think that Blanco is healthy enough to start a game yet, and the Timbers need a back three regardless against Monterrey. It is a possibility, however.

The tactical approach to this match should be simple: don’t let Monterrey get into any counterattacking situations. This team DESTROYS any opposition in transition. That’s where the back three comes into play. Three centerbacks allow the Timbers to still attack but also not be completely exposed at the back. Araujo in particular is the key to the system. He’s a great passer and can allow Bravo and Mosquera to get forward without worrying about ball progression. Niezgoda and Boli could play off each other. One thing the Timbers shouldn’t try? Tons of crosses. They can also take the opposition’s greatest strength and capitalize on it. Monterrey has a tendency to switch into a 2-4-4 in possession. That’s a lot of open space behind the midfield for the Timbers to counterattack into. Santiago Moreno needs to make the correct decisions in this phase of the game. Those opportunities will come and they can’t be squandered. Substitutes will also play a massive role in this match. Yimmi Chara, Felipe Mora, Marvin Loria, Dairon Asprilla, and Sebastian Blanco. all have the ability to change the match as well. Yimmi could sub in for Santi and Mora could sub in for one of the strikers. Marvin Loria’s role is more interesting. I think he could be a wingback in this scenario. His energy would be his best trait in that role. Asprilla is a striker in this tactic. Blanco could serve as a second 10, drifting wide to create and finding space in the box off the ball. He can be a target forward to win headers and occupy center backs. No matter what way you look at it, the 4-2-3-1 is not going to work without Evander. A back three is the best way to secure a result on Friday.

The same rules apply as the group stage: if it’s tied after 90 minutes we’re going right to penalties. With the Timbers facing a ton of adversity throughout the 90 minutes of regular time, getting to penalties will already be an accomplishment. But the Timbers have the mentality to win this match. I could go into all the “what-ifs” surrounding the Tigres match, but the team played well enough to secure a result. I expect the same level of intensity from the team on Friday. It is never easy for any team to visit Providence Park, and the Timbers are ready to use it to their advantage. Much like the Tigres game, they are prepared to die like heroes if necessary. But they don’t want to lose. They want to turn everyone’s Leagues Cup bracket on their heads. They want to make a statement to the rest of the continent. They want to pull off the upset of the tournament to any casual viewer. And they’re fully prepared to make it a reality.