If I didn't think the FO was still all-in on Ortiz, I'd 100% get behind a DP 6. I agree with your analysis. But I don't think they'll do that.
Instead, given that Jona is leaving, Kelsy is half-baked and young, and Mora will be out after this season or maybe next if we extend him (I doubt we offer him a new longer-term contract), we will need another type of forward to rotate, sub, or complement Kelsy/Mora. Maybe we bring up Guerra but Kelsy is already a development prospect. Guerra has one more year on his T2 contract. Maybe we just bring in a player with a loan option to buy, which could give us time to see how Mora and Kelsy settle. That could be an allocation money player. Splitting the difference would be okay, at least short-term.
But I think we need more attacking depth, particularly a player that can play a False 9 role or on one or both wings. Lassiter hasn't lit the world up yet and Antony is circumstantially brilliant but still not consistent enough. There are still questions about which is his best side, he's not doing some of the things a winger should do (e.g. runs across the top of the box and/or cutback passes from the touchline) and his first touch is still questionable at times.
Moreno is also mercurial and at times has had one foot out the door. He also want to play inside and, especially if Costa and/or Fernandez get any time at 8 (more likely the latter), he could be 10 sub/rotation. Using a DP slot up top would be a big investment in attacking talent with Kelsy on a U22 but that tag is intended for development prospects. We've just been fortunate to have gotten disproportion production from our U22 signings.
We need more composure, decisiveness, and assertiveness and around the box. We don't necessarily meed to match the number of goals that we had last season but we need certain types of goals from certain places to keep other teams honest. We need to quit being constipated in the box.
Even with Araujo gone and Jona leaving, we only have one senior roster slot now and, unless we sign Ayala to a new G/TAM contract, one DP slot. I suspect we've already signed Ayala to a U22 extension and just haven't announced it yet. I admittedly haven't run the numbers but my gut says it doesn't make sense to take him off the U22 tag if we don't have to. I don't think we have to, judging by how much we spent on Kelsy and kept him on a U22 contract.
Zuparic will be gone by the end of the season and will need to be replaced. Eric Miller should be gone after this season because Sawyer Jura is still to move up from T2. Bravo is still under contract for a bit but seems out of favor. If we move him, we'll want more fullback depth, especially assuming Eric Miller leaves. Sulte will be gone. Muse will be out of contract but it probably doesn't matter much whether he is offered a new contract or chooses to go elsewhere at this point. It may not be desirable or possible to exercise the options on both Crepeau and Pantemis. I love having that kind of competition and depth but if Crepeau isn't starting consistently that's too much to spend on a back up and he'll want to be somewhere he can play.
If we move Paredes, along with Zuparic and Araujo money, we could go pretty big but still short of DP on a 6. I don't see much point in bumping Ortiz down in the pecking order when Chará will be back too. Unless they give up on Ortiz AND move Paredes, a DP 6 doesn't seem to make much sense from a salary and roster perspective, even if I like the idea.
I appreciate the tirade about set pieces. Can you elaborate on what changes were made to improve things? My knee-jerk feeling is that it was just about signing Fory and Surman, not changing the marking scheme, but I admittedly haven't paid enough attention even though I harped about this quite a bit last season. I've been so happy to have not given up so many goals on set pieces that I haven't looked at why. Digging deeper, I'm curious if any changes could be attributed to Ridgy, both because he got a lot of grief from fans last season who assumed it was on him and because I am curious how much the improvement is about tactics vs. personnel.
I'd love your thoughts and analysis on ball progression through midfield, how the high line is working out with respect to balls over the top and around the flanks, rotations on the pitch (as opposed to match day rosters), off-the-ball movement to close passing lanes or move into space, runs into the box, overloads, plays, routines, etc. My perspective has been that Neville wants numbers in the box in attack and behind the ball in defense but once the players are in the respective boxes he hasn't given them much of a plan for what to do next. All of these things contribute to the indecisiveness, time spent on the ball, missed passes, miscommunications, etc. that have us looking like we don't have the right "mentality." Maybe I'm completely wrong but I've heard through a little bird that the philosophy amounts to letting the players figure things out for themselves under the auspices of "freedom," "looseness," "courage," etc. Basically, I hope I'm wrong however humbling it would be but don't have any data to validate my biases or eyeball tests.
RE: Ball progression through the midfield: One thing I've noticed about ball progression: Ayala ranks very high and Ortiz does not, according to FbRef.
RE: Adapt. We're halfway in and Ortiz still has a long ways to go imo, both offensively and defensively. I presumed he was brought in to play more offense as an improvement over Paredes. But he mostly gets his touches in the middle third and does not progress the ball or dribble much, per FbRef. And his defense is limited to maybe one chase down a ball episode. He is low on tackles and interceptions and just doesn't rank. Paredes and Chara are hands down more aggressive defensively, which is a boost to Ayala, who doesn't have to do double duty when Ortiz is in.
Go get 'em Jeremy. I love a good media scrum. It is appreciated to push the correct narrative, not the lazy one.
Couple of things: San Jose and Cristian Espinoza: Say hello to my little friend - Jimer Fory. I haven't seen anybody really get around him, and he's got the bravado to back it up. Espinoza didn't have to deal with Fory the last two times. Also, Pantemis will be back there. San Jose will cause a few problems but I think we will deal with it ok, as long as the midfield is sorted out. Chara over Ortiz would be fine, or even Paredes.
I hope it is a fun, open game. The more to enjoy Da Costa and Antony and Moreno in the open field. It will be interesting to see who starts at striker. I think Phil needs to pick a guy and go with him. I thought Kelsy was good in the St. Louis game.
Solid analysis of the situation and how to leverage it into building a team with the firepower to make a serious cup run.
That said, I feel for JR. He got run into the ground last season after also playing a bunch of Liga MX matches. Looking like his future is in Uruguay. Hope he fully recovers.
I really like Jona, and it is sad to see a player of his caliber have to deal with this at this stage of his career. I hope he finishes his career on a strong note. It does seem like he is done here at PTFC, though. His season last year was pretty amazing. Thanks for the memories Jona - you are a true baller.
Man I forgot all about the option to terminate. He gone! I’ve seen people asking if anyone would realistically buy him, and others saying well now MLS has a buyout provision. But no one has recalled that one weird trick the parties agreed to before now. Good work.
I for one am team “bring on an impactful striker.” I want Brian Fernandez 2.0 to come in here right now. How did Caleb Porter describe what he wants in his #9? The neck tattoos? I think we need someone with an attitude and tenacity to balance out the cool, calm, collected nature of our current group. Like zuparic but a striker.
Whether it’s TAM or DP, idk. But we have a window here. We should be aiming for MLS cup given our current position and roster flexibility.
Awesome work, as always! I appreciate you going to bat for all of us here in PDX, I thought your arguments there were well thought out. I also appreciate you posting most (all?) of your stuff over on Bluesky as well. I don't think I'm going back to the other place.
I liked Jona's intensity and aggressive play. Seems like a good guy who wanted to win. I'm sorry we didn't get to see a lot more of him.
I'm sick of San Jose beating us. Go Timbers!!!
BTW, another blockbuster article. Thank you so very much, Jeremy!
If I didn't think the FO was still all-in on Ortiz, I'd 100% get behind a DP 6. I agree with your analysis. But I don't think they'll do that.
Instead, given that Jona is leaving, Kelsy is half-baked and young, and Mora will be out after this season or maybe next if we extend him (I doubt we offer him a new longer-term contract), we will need another type of forward to rotate, sub, or complement Kelsy/Mora. Maybe we bring up Guerra but Kelsy is already a development prospect. Guerra has one more year on his T2 contract. Maybe we just bring in a player with a loan option to buy, which could give us time to see how Mora and Kelsy settle. That could be an allocation money player. Splitting the difference would be okay, at least short-term.
But I think we need more attacking depth, particularly a player that can play a False 9 role or on one or both wings. Lassiter hasn't lit the world up yet and Antony is circumstantially brilliant but still not consistent enough. There are still questions about which is his best side, he's not doing some of the things a winger should do (e.g. runs across the top of the box and/or cutback passes from the touchline) and his first touch is still questionable at times.
Moreno is also mercurial and at times has had one foot out the door. He also want to play inside and, especially if Costa and/or Fernandez get any time at 8 (more likely the latter), he could be 10 sub/rotation. Using a DP slot up top would be a big investment in attacking talent with Kelsy on a U22 but that tag is intended for development prospects. We've just been fortunate to have gotten disproportion production from our U22 signings.
We need more composure, decisiveness, and assertiveness and around the box. We don't necessarily meed to match the number of goals that we had last season but we need certain types of goals from certain places to keep other teams honest. We need to quit being constipated in the box.
Even with Araujo gone and Jona leaving, we only have one senior roster slot now and, unless we sign Ayala to a new G/TAM contract, one DP slot. I suspect we've already signed Ayala to a U22 extension and just haven't announced it yet. I admittedly haven't run the numbers but my gut says it doesn't make sense to take him off the U22 tag if we don't have to. I don't think we have to, judging by how much we spent on Kelsy and kept him on a U22 contract.
Zuparic will be gone by the end of the season and will need to be replaced. Eric Miller should be gone after this season because Sawyer Jura is still to move up from T2. Bravo is still under contract for a bit but seems out of favor. If we move him, we'll want more fullback depth, especially assuming Eric Miller leaves. Sulte will be gone. Muse will be out of contract but it probably doesn't matter much whether he is offered a new contract or chooses to go elsewhere at this point. It may not be desirable or possible to exercise the options on both Crepeau and Pantemis. I love having that kind of competition and depth but if Crepeau isn't starting consistently that's too much to spend on a back up and he'll want to be somewhere he can play.
If we move Paredes, along with Zuparic and Araujo money, we could go pretty big but still short of DP on a 6. I don't see much point in bumping Ortiz down in the pecking order when Chará will be back too. Unless they give up on Ortiz AND move Paredes, a DP 6 doesn't seem to make much sense from a salary and roster perspective, even if I like the idea.
I appreciate the tirade about set pieces. Can you elaborate on what changes were made to improve things? My knee-jerk feeling is that it was just about signing Fory and Surman, not changing the marking scheme, but I admittedly haven't paid enough attention even though I harped about this quite a bit last season. I've been so happy to have not given up so many goals on set pieces that I haven't looked at why. Digging deeper, I'm curious if any changes could be attributed to Ridgy, both because he got a lot of grief from fans last season who assumed it was on him and because I am curious how much the improvement is about tactics vs. personnel.
I'd love your thoughts and analysis on ball progression through midfield, how the high line is working out with respect to balls over the top and around the flanks, rotations on the pitch (as opposed to match day rosters), off-the-ball movement to close passing lanes or move into space, runs into the box, overloads, plays, routines, etc. My perspective has been that Neville wants numbers in the box in attack and behind the ball in defense but once the players are in the respective boxes he hasn't given them much of a plan for what to do next. All of these things contribute to the indecisiveness, time spent on the ball, missed passes, miscommunications, etc. that have us looking like we don't have the right "mentality." Maybe I'm completely wrong but I've heard through a little bird that the philosophy amounts to letting the players figure things out for themselves under the auspices of "freedom," "looseness," "courage," etc. Basically, I hope I'm wrong however humbling it would be but don't have any data to validate my biases or eyeball tests.
RE: Ball progression through the midfield: One thing I've noticed about ball progression: Ayala ranks very high and Ortiz does not, according to FbRef.
Seems like that puts Ayala at the 8 and Ortiz at the 6, or they kind of pivot as 6/8 hybrids, which is more or less what I expected.
I hope Ortiz continues to improve and "adapt to the league" or whatever.
RE: Adapt. We're halfway in and Ortiz still has a long ways to go imo, both offensively and defensively. I presumed he was brought in to play more offense as an improvement over Paredes. But he mostly gets his touches in the middle third and does not progress the ball or dribble much, per FbRef. And his defense is limited to maybe one chase down a ball episode. He is low on tackles and interceptions and just doesn't rank. Paredes and Chara are hands down more aggressive defensively, which is a boost to Ayala, who doesn't have to do double duty when Ortiz is in.
Edit: Ayala, who seems to have to do double duty when Ortiz is in.
Go get 'em Jeremy. I love a good media scrum. It is appreciated to push the correct narrative, not the lazy one.
Couple of things: San Jose and Cristian Espinoza: Say hello to my little friend - Jimer Fory. I haven't seen anybody really get around him, and he's got the bravado to back it up. Espinoza didn't have to deal with Fory the last two times. Also, Pantemis will be back there. San Jose will cause a few problems but I think we will deal with it ok, as long as the midfield is sorted out. Chara over Ortiz would be fine, or even Paredes.
I hope it is a fun, open game. The more to enjoy Da Costa and Antony and Moreno in the open field. It will be interesting to see who starts at striker. I think Phil needs to pick a guy and go with him. I thought Kelsy was good in the St. Louis game.
Solid analysis of the situation and how to leverage it into building a team with the firepower to make a serious cup run.
That said, I feel for JR. He got run into the ground last season after also playing a bunch of Liga MX matches. Looking like his future is in Uruguay. Hope he fully recovers.
I really like Jona, and it is sad to see a player of his caliber have to deal with this at this stage of his career. I hope he finishes his career on a strong note. It does seem like he is done here at PTFC, though. His season last year was pretty amazing. Thanks for the memories Jona - you are a true baller.
Man I forgot all about the option to terminate. He gone! I’ve seen people asking if anyone would realistically buy him, and others saying well now MLS has a buyout provision. But no one has recalled that one weird trick the parties agreed to before now. Good work.
I for one am team “bring on an impactful striker.” I want Brian Fernandez 2.0 to come in here right now. How did Caleb Porter describe what he wants in his #9? The neck tattoos? I think we need someone with an attitude and tenacity to balance out the cool, calm, collected nature of our current group. Like zuparic but a striker.
Whether it’s TAM or DP, idk. But we have a window here. We should be aiming for MLS cup given our current position and roster flexibility.
Awesome work, as always! I appreciate you going to bat for all of us here in PDX, I thought your arguments there were well thought out. I also appreciate you posting most (all?) of your stuff over on Bluesky as well. I don't think I'm going back to the other place.