Portland Timbers-Real Salt Lake Preview (7/13)

The Timbers' rise will be tested against a red-hot RSL team that is very good on the road. Can Portland make a statement tomorrow?

There are only two games left before Leagues Cup begins. For the Portland Timbers, they will face two of the top three teams in the West. And the first one is Real Salt Lake.

The RSL Report

There is no debating who the Timbers’ two biggest rivals are. But who comes in third place? Allow me to introduce the Timbers Rivalry Tier List.

The “Semi-Rival” tier is very interesting. Aside from Seattle and Vancouver, the rest of the rankings are entirely subjective. But there are definitely four teams that fall in that 3rd tier: Galaxy, LAFC, SKC, and RSL. I think that RSL is the 3rd-biggest rival for the Timbers following the Cascadia teams. They have met multiple times in the playoffs, and there are memorable fixtures featuring these two teams since the Timbers joined MLS. Who could forget the ridiculous 2-2 draw in 2016 when Lucas Melano won the Fallon D’Floor? Or the 6-1 demolition in 2021 that propelled the Timbers into the playoffs? Every game against RSL is a big one. I spoke last year of my history with Salt Lake City, and there is no team that I want to beat more than RSL aside from Seattle and Vancouver. Tomorrow’s match is shaping up to be a clash of titans.

RSL’s 2023 ended when they lost to Houston in the First Round on penalties. It was a pretty solid season for them, but no one expected them to explode like they have in 2024. RSL is 12-7-3 with the best goal differential in the West. Not only do they occupy 2nd place in the West, they are 4th in the Shield standings. When the Monarchs signed Chicho Arango last season as a Designated Player, they gave him a chance to truly lead a team. With LAFC, Arango largely played second fiddle to Carlos Vela. LAFC sold him to Pachuca in early 2023 to open a DP slot. Arango’s time in Pachuca was solid, but the Colombian wanted to return to MLS. RSL came calling, and Arango became their record signing last summer. After having an offseason to settle with his new team, Arango has become the front-runner for MVP. The Colombian has 17g/5a in 22 matches so far. But every elite striker needs an excellent running mate, and Arango’s is right winger Andres Gomez. Gomez arrived in Salt Lake City prior to the 2023 season, and took a little bit of time to adapt. Even though he didn’t light the league on fire in his first season, you could see the flashes of an unbelievable player. 2024 has been Gomez’s breakout season. He has 11g/7a in 21 matches. Those two are very fearsome, but there’s a THIRD star attacker on this team. Diego Luna has 5g/8a in 20 matches, but the league counts secondary assists in their official league stats. I don’t believe in secondary assists so I only count Luna’s 8 primary assists in my stats. But it does say something that Luna’s official MLS assist total is 13. The young American has been crucial when it comes to the “pass-before-the-pass.” Matt Crooks occupies the 10 role, and he’s taking a little bit of time to adjust to the league. In addition to their excellent attack, RSL has an elite double pivot. Pablo Ruiz was their best player last season, but he has only played in 3 games due to injuries. Braian Ojeda and Emeka Eneli have formed one of the best partnerships in the league. However, their backline has been their weak link. This is largely due to injuries. Justen Glad has been in and out of the medical room, and head coach Pablo Mastroeni has had to play some of his fullbacks as center backs. But RSL has been able to keep winning despite the shake-ups at the back. Last year’s RSL was scratching the surface of their potential. This year’s RSL is fully realizing it. 

RSL is outperforming their xG, but it isn’t that much of an outlier because of how good their attack has been at consistent quality chance creation. 3rd-most shots per 90, 2nd-most shots on target per 90. This attack is legit. RSL is also one of the better passing teams in the league. They like to have the ball and they’re very good at keeping it. 5th-most shot-creating actions per 90. But their defensive stats are lagging behind the offense. RSL has the worst tackle percentage despite attempting the 5th-fewest challenges in the league. There’s something to exploit there. 

Kevin Bonilla, Erik Holt, Pablo Ruiz, and Marcelo Silva are out. Justen Glad is questionable. 

I predict only two changes from last week’s 5-2 win against Atlanta. MacMath and Gavin Beavers have a timeshare at the goalkeeper position, but I think MacMath starts given the importance of the game and the road setting. Brody replaces Bode Hidalgo at right back. Quinton grew up in Portland, attended Grant High School, and made an appearance for the Timbers’ U23s in 2021 while in college. Big homecoming for him tomorrow. He isn’t the only player returning to Providence Park tomorrow. Noel Caliskan signed a first-team contract with RSL this season and should be available off the bench. No changes to the front four or the midfield. RSL is 4-6-1 on the road this year, and the only loss was in Miami for the season opener. They are a very good team and they keep finding ways to get results on the road. 

The Timbers Report

There is only one team in MLS who has three players with double digit goals. That team is the Portland Timbers. Over the past three games, the Timbers have scored 9 goals. And it isn’t just the golden trio of Jonathan Rodriguez, Felipe Mora, and Evander getting in on the act. 

Prior to the bye week in mid-June, Santiago Moreno was rather inconsistent. Since the Timbers returned to action on June 19th in Columbus, the Colombian has been on fire. “I have been trying to stay consistent,” Moreno told a group of reporters on Thursday. But it wasn’t just a group of reporters that he was addressing. 

While holding a soccer ball in his hands, Moreno faced a rather large crowd during an interview. His own teammates outnumbered the assembled media. Phil Neville has spoken about how strong the camaraderie on this team is, and I can’t think of a better picture to illustrate it than this one. Behind the photographer (Timbers radio host Adam Susman), training was still going on. Cheers and shouts from players and staff often drowned out Moreno’s responses. Santi has been excellent defensively so far, and now his attacking contributions are catching up. 

Maxime Crepeau and Kamal Miller are still with the Canadian National Team. Even after falling to Argentina in the semifinal, they will play Uruguay in the bronze medal match. This should be the last game that they miss during this international window. Marvin Loria is still out. David Ayala and Antony are both questionable with leg injuries. 

Evander and Phil Neville are back from suspension. The only serious question with this XI is Ayala’s status. He was on the end of a crunching tackle from Brian Anunga last week and did train in full on Thursday. However, part of me thinks that the coaching staff is going to be cautious regarding his injury. I think that Williamson will get another opportunity to start in this game. However, I could be wrong, and Ayala could be on a minutes counter. Portland does not have a midweek game (they’re the only team in the league that has Wednesday off) so there’s no need to factor in rotation or rest. Neville and the Timbers have to go for it all tomorrow.

Tactical Preview

Second Balls and Structure

RSL’s pivot of Ojeda/Eneli has been excellent in 2024. Where they really excel is winning second balls and maintaining possession. Both teams will line up in a similar formation with the same number of midfielders. But winning second balls isn’t just up to the midfielders and defenders. The whole team has to fight for every loose ball. In order to do that, the Timbers need to maintain their out-of-possession structure.

I’ve talked before about how easy it was earlier in the season to move the ball through Portland’s midfield. Many of those problems stemmed from an inability to win second balls. I think that it’s a structural problem and not a problem based on individual effort. Over the past month, Portland has begun to press higher and force high turnovers. Their out-of-possession structure has been crucial to that. If players began to drift out of the structure, those second balls will be a lot easier for RSL to win. This game is the ultimate test of Portland’s defensive shape. Limiting mistakes is still a concern, but this is the most important thing to watch in tomorrow’s game.

Final Thoughts

Announcer Analytics

For the first time in 2024, Timbers fans will be spoiled in terms of broadcast options. There will be a TV telecast on FS1. This match is FREE on Apple TV, and Jake Zivin will be on the call for the first time this season (and only the second time since the Apple deal went into effect). He will be paired with Devon Kerr. The Spanish broadcast will also be excellent, with Alejandro Figueredo doing play-by-play. Diego Valeri will take a break from the drums to provide color commentary in Spanish. The local radio broadcast from 750 The Game will also be available on Apple TV. Although kickoff is technically listed at 7 PM Pacific, this is a FOX game. Expect kickoff to occur around 7:25 PM instead. 

Referee Report

Joe Dickerson will be the center ref for tomorrow’s match. He hasn’t refereed a Timbers match in 2024 so far. 

2024 stats: 9 games, 22.89 fouls/game, 4.78 yellows/game, 0.11 reds/game

Final Whistle

Portland leads the all-time history with RSL 14-10-12. Their record against RSL at Providence Park is 8-7-3. The Timbers haven’t lost to RSL at Providence Park since July 19th, 2017 (the Victor Arboleda Game and a Baldomero Toledo masterclass). 

This game is absolutely massive. There’s no way for the Timbers to climb above 5th, but a win would cement them as a team to fear. However, in order to do that, the Timbers will have to play one of their best games of the season. A win against RSL will have to be earned, not stolen. The Monarchs are simply too good for that. This game could not have come at a better time. It is the final home game before Leagues Cup, and the Timbers are going to want to make a statement.