Jeremy-just another masterpiece! Your depth of insight about the players on this team and what they and Neville need to do to get to a higher level blows me away. I always feel that Neville would do well to read your pieces because he'd learn from them (assuming he's open to learning). Pantemis' absence continues to perplex me. Do you have any inside info. on just what is going on? My conspiracy theory is that Neville's been directed to play Maxie in spite of lots of evidence that Jimmy P. is a better fit for this team.
"I think that Phil Neville has found a potential solution to the attacking struggles."
I hope so! I wish I shared your optimism.
The Fernandez decision may be part of it. It's effectively playing with two 8/10s and a 6/8 instead of one 8/10 and two 6/8s, which adds creativity, as you've noted. I've said elsewhere that missing Evander's goal contributions has put too much expectation on Da Costa and given rise to cockamamie schemes to play him on the wing or at 8. Fernandez appears to be doing better at what we've been trying to pressure Paredes into doing. I don't know if Ayala or Ortiz can be pure 6s but having an 8 or a 10 that helps defend alleviates some pressure on either of them and can allow them to get forward sometimes. I still haven't seen enough evidence that any of them are going to compensate for the lack of finishing but this combo could help with chance creation from midfield at least. Moreno's inclination to tuck inside should help with this too.
"However, the Timbers are addicted to playing one type of pass where the risk far outweighs the reward."
My hypothesis, which I feel is at least somewhat validated by your observations and the stats, is that the players are not given enough of a plan. Too much is predicated upon the idea that playing musical chairs will eventually lead to fielding enough players with the right "mentality" to do the business. On both sides of the ball, the players have to figure things out for themselves in real time, more than should reasonably and usually be expected of them. This contributes to hesitancy passing, shooting, closing channels, moving into space, rotating, etc. They have not been sufficiently prepared for what to do, especially against specific opponents, have no foundation to build on, don't have default settings, have few to no routines, etc. We are predictably unpredictable from multiple perspectives. It's great that Neville wants the boys to play free and loose or whatever, but they need at least a framework to operate from. I don't think he's giving them enough of a blueprint. It grinds my gears that he doesn't prepare them well, then blames them for not doing his job for him.
"But what did concern me were several miscommunications with Finn Surman in the first half."
Yes, this has seemed to be a trend regardless of who the players are, for the most part. I've seen Surman and Zuparic at least communicating. I can't hear what I can't hear but our communication doesn't pass the eyeball test. Aside from Neville broadcasting which players the other team should cover from the touchline by shouting who he wants us to pass to.
"Miller’s biggest problem is consistency and his propensity for errors."
I'll argue that some of this is because of his lack of speed combined with the high line. He's playing against his limitations, so he'll be more likely to make mistakes. He's not the only one.
"If Miller wasn’t winning everything in the air, it’s because Fory already beat him to the ball."
This and, to a lesser extent and especially in this match, Surman covering for Kamal so often is problematic. Kamal is a good player. He's a smart player. He makes good tackles. His positioning is usually fine. His passes are good. But he's slow and gets put in situations where his teammates have to cover for him. That happens. But it happens routinely. It takes away from how Fory and Surman could contribute in other ways. A parallel is Zuparic roving forward to help with chance creation in the middle. It's great that he can do that and someone, even a CB, should do that on occasion. But relying on it too much or taking risks on it can backfire. I love Fory being able to play both sides of the ball and he's helped tremendously. But he's also racking up yellow cards because he's scrambling.
A midfield of Ayala, Da Costa, and Fernandez might be best near term. Ortiz can rotate in for Ayala or Fernandez, Moreno or Fernandez can start for Da Costa sometimes. We don't necessarily need a true 10 if we've got 2 8s and someone above them takes on finishing. It would be great if someone in midfield would actually take shots and score goals though. Mora, Jona, Moreno, and Antony are all inconsistent for different, sometimes excusable, reasons. Chance creation below them is a factor for sure, but we are still missing the shots from distance that you credit Moreno for, late runs into the box, runs across the top of the box, and build up through the middle (which you've alluded to in asking Ayala to make more direct passes). I think this is a systemic problem, not just individual players, though I concede Da Costa's disposition really does seem to be a factor.
"I think that was the worst penalty I’ve ever seen a Timbers player take." I envy that you've missed some stinkers.
I don't understand the coach rating. I liked the subs. I'll credit Neville that I usually like his subs. But we stunk in the first half not because of his roster, his lineup, the formation, or the mentality of the players but because he doesn't prepare them well or give them a blueprint for success. He's the constant through all of the continuing, unaddressed, problems. It seems a fluke that we've brought in good players like Fory and Surman because Neville's hasn't acknowledged the limitations that they've been papering over. Maybe I'm going too hard on Neville because it doesn't seem like enough people are critical of him at all and keep blaming players or Ned for things that aren't their fault. While others do have some responsibility, they should only be accountable for what is actually within their purview. The official journos seem to feather touch Rob Gale for Thorns too. I hope y'all aren't pulling punches because they're nice or you are concerned about keeping access. At least Gale gets more rightful criticism from supporters. For some reason, Neville is Teflon.
Appreciate your analysis and humor as always. Thanks.
Nice write up as always! Quick question though, what’s up with Jona? He came back from injury but we haven’t seen him in like a month. Is he injured again or just building fitness? I haven’t been able to find anything on it.
Nice work Jeremy! I've often thought of a 4-3-3, too, and with the addition of Fernandez, that sounds like more of a reality. Paredes can fill in wherever. I think he's more of a six. Ortiz, not to bring the positive vibes down, but I didn't really see a great game from him. Not bad, but I'm pretty sure Ayala was doing the lion's share of work in there. Moreno could play an 8 too.
Jeremy-just another masterpiece! Your depth of insight about the players on this team and what they and Neville need to do to get to a higher level blows me away. I always feel that Neville would do well to read your pieces because he'd learn from them (assuming he's open to learning). Pantemis' absence continues to perplex me. Do you have any inside info. on just what is going on? My conspiracy theory is that Neville's been directed to play Maxie in spite of lots of evidence that Jimmy P. is a better fit for this team.
"I think that Phil Neville has found a potential solution to the attacking struggles."
I hope so! I wish I shared your optimism.
The Fernandez decision may be part of it. It's effectively playing with two 8/10s and a 6/8 instead of one 8/10 and two 6/8s, which adds creativity, as you've noted. I've said elsewhere that missing Evander's goal contributions has put too much expectation on Da Costa and given rise to cockamamie schemes to play him on the wing or at 8. Fernandez appears to be doing better at what we've been trying to pressure Paredes into doing. I don't know if Ayala or Ortiz can be pure 6s but having an 8 or a 10 that helps defend alleviates some pressure on either of them and can allow them to get forward sometimes. I still haven't seen enough evidence that any of them are going to compensate for the lack of finishing but this combo could help with chance creation from midfield at least. Moreno's inclination to tuck inside should help with this too.
"However, the Timbers are addicted to playing one type of pass where the risk far outweighs the reward."
My hypothesis, which I feel is at least somewhat validated by your observations and the stats, is that the players are not given enough of a plan. Too much is predicated upon the idea that playing musical chairs will eventually lead to fielding enough players with the right "mentality" to do the business. On both sides of the ball, the players have to figure things out for themselves in real time, more than should reasonably and usually be expected of them. This contributes to hesitancy passing, shooting, closing channels, moving into space, rotating, etc. They have not been sufficiently prepared for what to do, especially against specific opponents, have no foundation to build on, don't have default settings, have few to no routines, etc. We are predictably unpredictable from multiple perspectives. It's great that Neville wants the boys to play free and loose or whatever, but they need at least a framework to operate from. I don't think he's giving them enough of a blueprint. It grinds my gears that he doesn't prepare them well, then blames them for not doing his job for him.
"But what did concern me were several miscommunications with Finn Surman in the first half."
Yes, this has seemed to be a trend regardless of who the players are, for the most part. I've seen Surman and Zuparic at least communicating. I can't hear what I can't hear but our communication doesn't pass the eyeball test. Aside from Neville broadcasting which players the other team should cover from the touchline by shouting who he wants us to pass to.
"Miller’s biggest problem is consistency and his propensity for errors."
I'll argue that some of this is because of his lack of speed combined with the high line. He's playing against his limitations, so he'll be more likely to make mistakes. He's not the only one.
"If Miller wasn’t winning everything in the air, it’s because Fory already beat him to the ball."
This and, to a lesser extent and especially in this match, Surman covering for Kamal so often is problematic. Kamal is a good player. He's a smart player. He makes good tackles. His positioning is usually fine. His passes are good. But he's slow and gets put in situations where his teammates have to cover for him. That happens. But it happens routinely. It takes away from how Fory and Surman could contribute in other ways. A parallel is Zuparic roving forward to help with chance creation in the middle. It's great that he can do that and someone, even a CB, should do that on occasion. But relying on it too much or taking risks on it can backfire. I love Fory being able to play both sides of the ball and he's helped tremendously. But he's also racking up yellow cards because he's scrambling.
A midfield of Ayala, Da Costa, and Fernandez might be best near term. Ortiz can rotate in for Ayala or Fernandez, Moreno or Fernandez can start for Da Costa sometimes. We don't necessarily need a true 10 if we've got 2 8s and someone above them takes on finishing. It would be great if someone in midfield would actually take shots and score goals though. Mora, Jona, Moreno, and Antony are all inconsistent for different, sometimes excusable, reasons. Chance creation below them is a factor for sure, but we are still missing the shots from distance that you credit Moreno for, late runs into the box, runs across the top of the box, and build up through the middle (which you've alluded to in asking Ayala to make more direct passes). I think this is a systemic problem, not just individual players, though I concede Da Costa's disposition really does seem to be a factor.
"I think that was the worst penalty I’ve ever seen a Timbers player take." I envy that you've missed some stinkers.
I don't understand the coach rating. I liked the subs. I'll credit Neville that I usually like his subs. But we stunk in the first half not because of his roster, his lineup, the formation, or the mentality of the players but because he doesn't prepare them well or give them a blueprint for success. He's the constant through all of the continuing, unaddressed, problems. It seems a fluke that we've brought in good players like Fory and Surman because Neville's hasn't acknowledged the limitations that they've been papering over. Maybe I'm going too hard on Neville because it doesn't seem like enough people are critical of him at all and keep blaming players or Ned for things that aren't their fault. While others do have some responsibility, they should only be accountable for what is actually within their purview. The official journos seem to feather touch Rob Gale for Thorns too. I hope y'all aren't pulling punches because they're nice or you are concerned about keeping access. At least Gale gets more rightful criticism from supporters. For some reason, Neville is Teflon.
Appreciate your analysis and humor as always. Thanks.
Nice write up as always! Quick question though, what’s up with Jona? He came back from injury but we haven’t seen him in like a month. Is he injured again or just building fitness? I haven’t been able to find anything on it.
Nice work Jeremy! I've often thought of a 4-3-3, too, and with the addition of Fernandez, that sounds like more of a reality. Paredes can fill in wherever. I think he's more of a six. Ortiz, not to bring the positive vibes down, but I didn't really see a great game from him. Not bad, but I'm pretty sure Ayala was doing the lion's share of work in there. Moreno could play an 8 too.