Something that has been nagging at me is the comments last year from Neville about how he wouldn’t be surprised if a club submitted an offer for Moreno that we accepted. I’ve been wondering what our plans would be if that happened.
If it did, and if Ayala comes off of the U-22 due to salary being beyond the threshold, I could see us bringing in a DP right winger and a U-22 CB
Short-term, Antony would just start opposite Jona.
Surman is a U22 CB. He's not on a U22 contract. Maybe it would make sense to move him to one. I don't know if bringing in another U22 or converting him to a U22 contract makes sense at that position. The U22 slots are generally best used for creative young attackers, as those are harder positions to fill from our development pipeline or domestically. Arguably, we need experienced depth there if we can expect to lose Zuparic and Araujo soon. We should probably do McGraw a favor and trade him.
We aren't bringing in a DP winger as long as Jona is a DP winger.
I don't see switching to a 3 DP model when we're getting so much production out of our U22s. Our track record with DPs is questionable. If Moreno moves, freeing up one of our 4 U22 slots, I'd use that for another winger before signing a DP, as succession planning for Jona. Fernandez can also play on the right or middle, effectively helping Antony fill Moreno's spot. His signing makes me feel like they are already planning for the possibility of Moreno moving.
Like for like makes a certain amount of sense but we also have a Fernandez and Antony. I don’t rate Lassiter (yet) but he’s not nothing. So many possible moving parts.
Great job Ned! You've assembled a young, pacey roster that sits in second. And there's room to add someone of starter quality in the summer window. Well done!
Without knowing who's coming or going, I'd go and get a top u22 midfielder - I think that's an area that could be strengthened. I'd like to see a bigger guy in there, an 8 who can roam and spray and arrive in the box. Otherwise, yes, go with a CB, , especially if Zup is on the way out at the end of the year or by the summer.
Kelsy, Da Costa and Fory are tearing it up. I wouldn't give them anything less than an A, based on what they have done to this point.
Ayala is 22 and da Costa is only 24. Where would another young midfielder fit in? Fernandez and Paredes are 26. We may also have some talent at T2.
I don't remember ever having done the math on it but I generally feel like, at each position, we have some combination of 3 players that are either development prospects, reliable veterans who aren't necessarily consistently starting quality or are ending their careers, and a penciled in starter that fits between the other two on the spectrum, sometimes closer to one than the other.
Succession planning is a consideration with respect to selling/trading players but also aging out.
Mora is on an option year next season. The Timbers may want to offer him a new contract rather than just exercising his option. I'd guess they'd offer him a two-year contract with an option year. If that doesn't make him happy, we'll need to look for another veteran forward.
Eric Miller's contract ends this season. Bravo and Smith are depth on the left (Bravo may be sold/traded). Sawyer Jura will have a first team contract at right fullback next season (we may have arranged that prematurely). So we might want another veteran fullback for depth if Eric Miller doesn't come back on a mutually-favorable deal. If we get an offer we can't refuse for Mosquera, we should look to replace him and Eric Miller with a starting fullback, with an eye on Jura as successor / depth.
Paredes and Chara are also on option years next season. We might be doing Paredes a favor to sell or trade him. I'd be fine with extending them both another year. I'd sign Paredes to a new contract if favorable terms can be reached. He's a fine depth piece and even good enough to start sometimes. While it would be kind of nice for Chara to retire in Timbers Y50, letting him hit 40 with the club before retiring is also poetic, maybe more since the Timbers haven't existed for 50 consecutive years. When one or both of them leave, we'll need more depth. If some Argentine club throws fuck you money at us for Ayala we'll have a bigger problem.
Crepeau should probably be moved rather than have his option picked up. He's a big cap hit for a bench player. Sulte will be out of contract. Muse has an option year next year but I don't know how much point there would be in extending him. Bring in one or two other keepers to compete with Pantemis and possibly succeed him. He's not especially old for a keeper though.
Zuparic will be gone after this season. It looks like they might try to convert Smith to a centerback, especially with Fory killing it and if Bravo is kept around. We should sell/trade McGraw. We fucked up signing him to a new contract. With Araujo also departing, this is an opportunity rebuild our CB corps. Someone experienced with some qualities that Surman may not have would be ideal for the RCB spot. LCB should probably also be a more of a veteran like-for-like for Zuparic if Smith could be converted. Otherwise, a young CB might make sense there. Kamal is 27, which isn't old for a CB and he could still improve. He could be mentoring a successor. Otherwise, we just need reliability like we get from Zuparic.
I may try to look at our depth chart, including the T2 and academy players I'm familiar with, to get a better sense of succession planning by position. There's a lot of unpredictability around if/when we might get offers we'd accept for some players. Injuries can't be planned for really, except in terms of probability as a factor of age or history. Right now, it's often hard to see where we can and should add another starting quality player.
It sounds like Ayala and FO are working on a contract extension and that moves him off the U22 slot. I hope they renegotiate Paredes. Of all the guys on the team, I'm pulling for him to stay strong be patient, and maybe they renegotiate a team friendly contract that reflects his role.
Yes, I don't remember if Ayala could be kept on a U22 contract or if we would need to GAM/TAM him. If we free up a U22 slot, I don't know where we'd want to use it offhand. I don't know where we'd use a DP slot at this point either, if we want to switch to the 3 DP model. I'd kind of prefer to stick to U22 because they're seeming the better investment right now.
When looking at the "depth chart", it feels like we need a bit of strengthen behind De Costa, JDM, right wing, and CB (with the departure of Araujo). I feel like getting someone to replace one of the (Anthony, Moreno, JDM) when they eventually leave is a good way.
The acquisition of Omir was super smart. He can play both wing positions in addition to backing up De Costa. That gives us a lot of versatility. I am bit concerned with the striker position when Mora leaves and I wonder who will back up Kelsy but that's a "future problem".
I just dont see a "starter level" quality that can replace anyone on our roster right now. I can see Kamal Miller being replaced if they can find someone better but Kamal is also earning a lot of money to ride the bench.
I can see Dario leaving in the summer for more playing time as well. I know McGraw has signed an extension but I can also see him leaving because there's no pathway for him to get more playing time.
So my priority would be a backup young CB, RB, CAM, Winger, and then Striker.
As you said, Fernandez is depth for da Costa or at right wing. He's basically Moreno backfill. Moreno is strength behind da Costa, especially with Antony able to play on the right and the addition of Fernandez. I think we're good at CAM depth unless Moreno departs. Even then, with Fernandez it would be too soon to panic.
Sawyer Jura becomes a first team player next season, so that's some depth for JDM. If we don't sign Eric Miller a new contract, I could see replacing him.
We should plan on replacing one or more of Araujo, McGraw, and Zuparic. We just signed McGraw to a new contract but we'd be doing him a factor selling or trading him. His value probably went in the toilet though, so we might just hold him hostage and ride it out. I'd be down with essentially like-for-like replacements for Araujo or Zuparic. I don't think we need to replace both of them unless McGraw leaves but Zuparic for sure.
Given that Antony is U22 and he and Jona are both signed through 2026 with an option year, we're pretty good at winger unless everyone unexpectedly leaves at once. I wish I were more happy about Lassiter so far but him and Fernandez fill the veteran depth roles on the wings.
If the MLS calendar switches, I'll be less worried about the prospect of losing players in the summer transfer window.
Another great deep dive into the fine points of our team! Most of this stuff is way over my head but you do a nice job of explaining it so even I can understand it. I don't even try to understand MLS' salary rules but I'm glad you do it. I like how the team is playing so far and wonder how big the balloon will get before it pops? Or, maybe it won't.
Is it also a possibility that it has taken Grabavoy to grow into his role? Or we finally have a Manager & GM totally aligned? I had become a Ned hater after last season, but this is a complete reversal.
My main complaint about Ned is just some careless public comments, especially with respect to Evander. Neville gets some blame for that too.
People blame Ned for scouting players that he didn't scout and/or signing players that he didn't sign. He hasn't actually been in his current role that long and was unexpectedly elevated when GW got rightfully shitcanned. He was on a pretty steady advancement trajectory and has a good reputation around the league. I don't know how much shade players have seemed to throw at him is entirely fair. I get why Ivacic was pissed but it seemed like he had a "gentleman's agreement" with GW that Ned wasn't obligated to honor, at least contractually. He's also had to deal with coaching changes and other FO scandals. Gotta be hard to juggle international contracts in the current climate. I'm still not a fan of Neville in many ways and would blame a bit of that on Ned but it's clear to me that was a Failson call that Ned was compelled to support.
I would like to see the club have a consistent identity, to hire coaching staff, sign players, and run the academy in alignment with that. Instead, whenever we have a new coach, they try to impose an identity and we have a period of overlap where we have players who don't fit the new system. To some extent, Neville has brought in players that don't fit his system, but it's increasingly working out better. I don't know how well we can pull off such an approach with our weak academy system and small recruiting pool. We seem stuck between being a development or feeder team vs a team that buys established stars. I don't think we have the resources to do either. I'd rather develop players to sell on than hire aging Eurostars and plenty of people argue that the superstars don't want to play in Portland, Oregon in their golden years anyway.
Getting rid of Evander wasn’t on Ned - it was on Evander. I’ll blame the FO, though, for not vetting him enough to know he had no desire to be here and had the potential (that was fully realized) to be an utter cancer on the team. It’s no coincidence that the team now has a cohesion unseen in years here immediately after he left.
I mean, we had an amazing season last year of highlights and then sold him and picked up DA Costa and Kelsy and still have the ability to sign a "quality starter." Ned is on fire.
Something that has been nagging at me is the comments last year from Neville about how he wouldn’t be surprised if a club submitted an offer for Moreno that we accepted. I’ve been wondering what our plans would be if that happened.
If it did, and if Ayala comes off of the U-22 due to salary being beyond the threshold, I could see us bringing in a DP right winger and a U-22 CB
Short-term, Antony would just start opposite Jona.
Surman is a U22 CB. He's not on a U22 contract. Maybe it would make sense to move him to one. I don't know if bringing in another U22 or converting him to a U22 contract makes sense at that position. The U22 slots are generally best used for creative young attackers, as those are harder positions to fill from our development pipeline or domestically. Arguably, we need experienced depth there if we can expect to lose Zuparic and Araujo soon. We should probably do McGraw a favor and trade him.
We aren't bringing in a DP winger as long as Jona is a DP winger.
I don't see switching to a 3 DP model when we're getting so much production out of our U22s. Our track record with DPs is questionable. If Moreno moves, freeing up one of our 4 U22 slots, I'd use that for another winger before signing a DP, as succession planning for Jona. Fernandez can also play on the right or middle, effectively helping Antony fill Moreno's spot. His signing makes me feel like they are already planning for the possibility of Moreno moving.
Good to have a plan for Moreno, but the way he is playing this year, I'd hate to see him go soon.
I don't want him to leave. Just thinking about what we'd do if we get an offer we can't refuse.
definitely go u22 winger, then.
Like for like makes a certain amount of sense but we also have a Fernandez and Antony. I don’t rate Lassiter (yet) but he’s not nothing. So many possible moving parts.
Was going to leave the same comment, but also include Antony.
Great job Ned! You've assembled a young, pacey roster that sits in second. And there's room to add someone of starter quality in the summer window. Well done!
Without knowing who's coming or going, I'd go and get a top u22 midfielder - I think that's an area that could be strengthened. I'd like to see a bigger guy in there, an 8 who can roam and spray and arrive in the box. Otherwise, yes, go with a CB, , especially if Zup is on the way out at the end of the year or by the summer.
Kelsy, Da Costa and Fory are tearing it up. I wouldn't give them anything less than an A, based on what they have done to this point.
"I'd go and get a top u22 midfielder"
Ayala is 22 and da Costa is only 24. Where would another young midfielder fit in? Fernandez and Paredes are 26. We may also have some talent at T2.
I don't remember ever having done the math on it but I generally feel like, at each position, we have some combination of 3 players that are either development prospects, reliable veterans who aren't necessarily consistently starting quality or are ending their careers, and a penciled in starter that fits between the other two on the spectrum, sometimes closer to one than the other.
Succession planning is a consideration with respect to selling/trading players but also aging out.
Mora is on an option year next season. The Timbers may want to offer him a new contract rather than just exercising his option. I'd guess they'd offer him a two-year contract with an option year. If that doesn't make him happy, we'll need to look for another veteran forward.
Eric Miller's contract ends this season. Bravo and Smith are depth on the left (Bravo may be sold/traded). Sawyer Jura will have a first team contract at right fullback next season (we may have arranged that prematurely). So we might want another veteran fullback for depth if Eric Miller doesn't come back on a mutually-favorable deal. If we get an offer we can't refuse for Mosquera, we should look to replace him and Eric Miller with a starting fullback, with an eye on Jura as successor / depth.
Paredes and Chara are also on option years next season. We might be doing Paredes a favor to sell or trade him. I'd be fine with extending them both another year. I'd sign Paredes to a new contract if favorable terms can be reached. He's a fine depth piece and even good enough to start sometimes. While it would be kind of nice for Chara to retire in Timbers Y50, letting him hit 40 with the club before retiring is also poetic, maybe more since the Timbers haven't existed for 50 consecutive years. When one or both of them leave, we'll need more depth. If some Argentine club throws fuck you money at us for Ayala we'll have a bigger problem.
Crepeau should probably be moved rather than have his option picked up. He's a big cap hit for a bench player. Sulte will be out of contract. Muse has an option year next year but I don't know how much point there would be in extending him. Bring in one or two other keepers to compete with Pantemis and possibly succeed him. He's not especially old for a keeper though.
Zuparic will be gone after this season. It looks like they might try to convert Smith to a centerback, especially with Fory killing it and if Bravo is kept around. We should sell/trade McGraw. We fucked up signing him to a new contract. With Araujo also departing, this is an opportunity rebuild our CB corps. Someone experienced with some qualities that Surman may not have would be ideal for the RCB spot. LCB should probably also be a more of a veteran like-for-like for Zuparic if Smith could be converted. Otherwise, a young CB might make sense there. Kamal is 27, which isn't old for a CB and he could still improve. He could be mentoring a successor. Otherwise, we just need reliability like we get from Zuparic.
I may try to look at our depth chart, including the T2 and academy players I'm familiar with, to get a better sense of succession planning by position. There's a lot of unpredictability around if/when we might get offers we'd accept for some players. Injuries can't be planned for really, except in terms of probability as a factor of age or history. Right now, it's often hard to see where we can and should add another starting quality player.
It sounds like Ayala and FO are working on a contract extension and that moves him off the U22 slot. I hope they renegotiate Paredes. Of all the guys on the team, I'm pulling for him to stay strong be patient, and maybe they renegotiate a team friendly contract that reflects his role.
Yes, I don't remember if Ayala could be kept on a U22 contract or if we would need to GAM/TAM him. If we free up a U22 slot, I don't know where we'd want to use it offhand. I don't know where we'd use a DP slot at this point either, if we want to switch to the 3 DP model. I'd kind of prefer to stick to U22 because they're seeming the better investment right now.
When looking at the "depth chart", it feels like we need a bit of strengthen behind De Costa, JDM, right wing, and CB (with the departure of Araujo). I feel like getting someone to replace one of the (Anthony, Moreno, JDM) when they eventually leave is a good way.
The acquisition of Omir was super smart. He can play both wing positions in addition to backing up De Costa. That gives us a lot of versatility. I am bit concerned with the striker position when Mora leaves and I wonder who will back up Kelsy but that's a "future problem".
I just dont see a "starter level" quality that can replace anyone on our roster right now. I can see Kamal Miller being replaced if they can find someone better but Kamal is also earning a lot of money to ride the bench.
I can see Dario leaving in the summer for more playing time as well. I know McGraw has signed an extension but I can also see him leaving because there's no pathway for him to get more playing time.
So my priority would be a backup young CB, RB, CAM, Winger, and then Striker.
As you said, Fernandez is depth for da Costa or at right wing. He's basically Moreno backfill. Moreno is strength behind da Costa, especially with Antony able to play on the right and the addition of Fernandez. I think we're good at CAM depth unless Moreno departs. Even then, with Fernandez it would be too soon to panic.
Sawyer Jura becomes a first team player next season, so that's some depth for JDM. If we don't sign Eric Miller a new contract, I could see replacing him.
We should plan on replacing one or more of Araujo, McGraw, and Zuparic. We just signed McGraw to a new contract but we'd be doing him a factor selling or trading him. His value probably went in the toilet though, so we might just hold him hostage and ride it out. I'd be down with essentially like-for-like replacements for Araujo or Zuparic. I don't think we need to replace both of them unless McGraw leaves but Zuparic for sure.
Given that Antony is U22 and he and Jona are both signed through 2026 with an option year, we're pretty good at winger unless everyone unexpectedly leaves at once. I wish I were more happy about Lassiter so far but him and Fernandez fill the veteran depth roles on the wings.
If the MLS calendar switches, I'll be less worried about the prospect of losing players in the summer transfer window.
Another great deep dive into the fine points of our team! Most of this stuff is way over my head but you do a nice job of explaining it so even I can understand it. I don't even try to understand MLS' salary rules but I'm glad you do it. I like how the team is playing so far and wonder how big the balloon will get before it pops? Or, maybe it won't.
Is it also a possibility that it has taken Grabavoy to grow into his role? Or we finally have a Manager & GM totally aligned? I had become a Ned hater after last season, but this is a complete reversal.
My main complaint about Ned is just some careless public comments, especially with respect to Evander. Neville gets some blame for that too.
People blame Ned for scouting players that he didn't scout and/or signing players that he didn't sign. He hasn't actually been in his current role that long and was unexpectedly elevated when GW got rightfully shitcanned. He was on a pretty steady advancement trajectory and has a good reputation around the league. I don't know how much shade players have seemed to throw at him is entirely fair. I get why Ivacic was pissed but it seemed like he had a "gentleman's agreement" with GW that Ned wasn't obligated to honor, at least contractually. He's also had to deal with coaching changes and other FO scandals. Gotta be hard to juggle international contracts in the current climate. I'm still not a fan of Neville in many ways and would blame a bit of that on Ned but it's clear to me that was a Failson call that Ned was compelled to support.
I would like to see the club have a consistent identity, to hire coaching staff, sign players, and run the academy in alignment with that. Instead, whenever we have a new coach, they try to impose an identity and we have a period of overlap where we have players who don't fit the new system. To some extent, Neville has brought in players that don't fit his system, but it's increasingly working out better. I don't know how well we can pull off such an approach with our weak academy system and small recruiting pool. We seem stuck between being a development or feeder team vs a team that buys established stars. I don't think we have the resources to do either. I'd rather develop players to sell on than hire aging Eurostars and plenty of people argue that the superstars don't want to play in Portland, Oregon in their golden years anyway.
Sadly I agree. I absolutely hating getting rid of Evander but I like the changes so far.
Getting rid of Evander wasn’t on Ned - it was on Evander. I’ll blame the FO, though, for not vetting him enough to know he had no desire to be here and had the potential (that was fully realized) to be an utter cancer on the team. It’s no coincidence that the team now has a cohesion unseen in years here immediately after he left.
This is spot on!
I mean, we had an amazing season last year of highlights and then sold him and picked up DA Costa and Kelsy and still have the ability to sign a "quality starter." Ned is on fire.