2024 Secondary Transfer Window Review
You can also call it the "Summer Transfer Window" if you want.
The Summer Transfer Window has been closed for a month, but rosters didn’t officially freeze until September 13th. I wanted to see if the Timbers would make a late signing (either a free agent or a first-team deal for a T2 player) but they did not. Now it’s time to look at all the business the Timbers did over the summer.
Departures
Dairon Asprilla
This one still hurts. Asprilla wanted to retire as a Timber but contract negotiations were at a stalemate. However, his contract was up at the end of the season, and the Timbers let him return to Colombia for no transfer fee. Business-wise, I think it’s a pretty dumb deal. Even if there were no plans to keep him on the team beyond the end of 2024, he could have been able to see out the rest of the season with the club he loves and in the city that he loves. He had a perfect farewell with a game-winning assist against Minnesota. I’m mostly disappointed about the timing of the move rather than the move itself. At least Dairon is enjoying himself back in Colombia.
Larrys Mabiala
Another move with odd timing but one that needed to happen. It isn’t Mabiala’s fault that Gavin Wilkinson handed him a lucrative 4-year contract extension at age 33. His eventual decline was bound to happen, and it ended up clouding the memories of Timbers fans who only saw him as what he became rather than what he was. It also took a toll on Mabiala’s mental health when his playing time decreased. Personally, Mabiala’s contributions on and off the pitch to this franchise were never lost on me. He has a starting place at center back in my all-time MLS Timbers XI. I appreciate the courage he had to speak to the media about his mental health a few days before he took the field for the last time. The crowd gave him a worthy reception and he walked off the field with a victory and a clean sheet. I wish him nothing but the best in the next chapter of his life.
Nathan Fogaca
I really wanted Fogaca to succeed in Portland, but a return of 4 goals over 3 years was never going to cut it. But I will always praise him for the effort he showed on the pitch even if the goals didn’t come. He’s back in Brazil now and scored on his debut with Serie B side Operario. Just like he did in Portland. To me, Fogaca will remain a cult hero. Even though he only scored 4 times, it seemed like every single one of them was a big goal. 2 goals in the 7-2 demolition of SKC on his debut, one masterful go-ahead goal against Seattle in a huge 4-1 victory, and a perfect header to equalize against Houston earlier this year. I wish him all the best.
Arrivals
Finn Surman
I guess you could call him the marquee arrival of the summer. He hasn’t played a single minute for the Timbers yet, but he has featured for the New Zealand national team since arriving in Portland. The coaching staff have been adamant that he’s one for the future, but I do expect him to make his Timbers debut before 2024 ends. I like what I saw from him on international duty and in training. I can’t wait for his Timbers debut.
Mason Toye
The front office realized how serious the need for a backup striker was, and they struck gold when they traded a package of peanuts to Montreal in order to bring Toye to the Rose City. A tall, physical striker who is very good off-the-ball is exactly the type of profile the team needed. Toye immediately began challenging for minutes and scored in his second game with the club. It remains his lone goal for the club, but his impact doesn’t come from just putting the ball in the back of the net. Look at his excellent defensive shift against Seattle, earning himself a ram-like headbutt from his own goalkeeper out of appreciation. Last weekend against RSL, he was clobbered by Brayan Vera and was obviously hurt. That didn’t stop him from attempting to will his body beyond his natural limits to chase after every through ball. He has already passed the Damian Lillard Test by visiting the Oregon Coast. His brother lives in Corvallis. There are still 4 games (plus playoffs) to go, but I think he has already earned serious consideration for a new contract given that his current deal expires at the end of the year.
The State of the Roster
This is Portland’s depth chart for the rest of the season. Now the question must be raised: is this a playoff team? Yes, it definitely is. The attack is one of the best in the league and there are quality players all over the rest of the field. But is it a trophy-winning team? No, it isn’t. There is quality depth at key positions (CB, GK, DM, CAM) but there are still some holes on the flanks. That’s why I view Asprilla’s departure in particular as unnecessary. If there was no intention to sign him to a new contract, he could have stayed on the team until his deal expired at the end of the season. In the playoffs, you want Dairon Asprilla on your team. Speaking of expiring contracts…..
A Premature Winter To-Do List
Expiring Contracts
Five players have contracts that expire at the end of 2024. Two of them (Tega Ikoba and Hunter Sulte) are on the Supplemental Roster and have club options for next year. I expect both of those options to be picked up, especially Sulte’s. The Alaskan Alisson has excelled on loan with USL club Indy Eleven this year. Ikoba returned from a less fortunate spell with Indy and caught fire with T2, scoring 7 goals in 12 games.
One senior player who I do not expect to be back is Marvin Loria. It has been a good year for him off the field (congratulations on becoming a father) but he hasn’t played a single minute for the first team due to injuries. He does have an option for 2025, but this was a prove-it year for him and he couldn’t stay healthy. That’s just tough.
Mason Toye is another interesting case. After getting WWE’d in Salt Lake City, he is now expected to miss “a couple weeks” due to injury. He does have an option for 2025, but I think the Timbers will want to try to negotiate a new contract. He’s getting paid $658K in 2024 and Montreal is covering a significant portion of his salary this year. In order for him to return for 2025, he’d have to take a pay cut.
Diego Chara would like to return next year, and I believe that he will. He doesn’t have a club option, but I can see a 1-year deal with a club option for 2026 being agreed upon by the end of the season.
Player Sales
The Timbers need to start selling some of their players to Europe or back to South America. Luckily, the perfect sellable player has emerged over the summer.
Santiago Moreno came to Portland as a 21-year old in 2021. He has always wanted to play in Europe and I think his time has come. After requesting a trade last year, he changed his representation and signed a contract extension until 2026 (2027 club option) at the beginning of this season. His play is speaking on the field, but he’s also speaking off of it. Lately, the Colombian winger has been rather active on TikTok Live. One of these livestreams occurred on Monday night with the player and his mother shopping at Walmart. During this livestream, Moreno lamented the lack of a release clause in his contract and reaffirmed his wishes to play in Europe. This video, coupled with a recent TikTok (still up on his account) begging Brazilian clubs to make an offer for him, couldn’t have come at a better time. In order for the Timbers to remain a popular destination for young South American players, they have to start selling to Europe and prove that Portland can be a pathway to bigger and better leagues. Moreno is the perfect player to sell in the winter. Both his attitude and profile warrant a move away from Portland.
Offers will certainly come in for Juan Mosquera in the winter. Personally, I believe that Mosquera is ready for a move to Europe. In order to play in a bigger league, you have to be professional and mature. What Moreno lacks in maturity Mosquera has in spades. He has taken a big step forward defensively this year and European clubs should be licking their lips to get a player in with his age and profile. The time to sell could be this winter if the right offer arrives.
One player who absolutely should not be on his way out is Evander. Priority number one should be a brand new contract extension for the Brazilian superstar. He’s vastly underpaid and the money is there to give him a significant pay raise and the opportunity to lead this team for years. He wants to play for the Brazilian national team and that could be accomplished in MLS if he keeps stuffing the stat sheet. None of the offers that the club received for him were anywhere near reasonable. Back up the Brinks truck to his garage. He’s earned it.
Window Grade: B-
Saying goodbye to two club legends in the span of a month is very hard. But the Timbers kept building for the future and filled their biggest short-term need during this window. It doesn’t elevate them to a trophy contender, but the pieces are in place to possibly cause havoc in the playoffs. None of the three Timbers teams that went to MLS Cup were considered “contenders” when the playoffs began. They strapped on their helmets and began to get to work. I have to praise Grabavoy for a smart but unspectacular summer window. I still wish Dairon Asprilla was still around, and that takes this grade from a B to a B-. Let’s see what the rest of the season brings for a team that refuses to surrender. There’s a three-year pattern at stake and no one will want to face this team in the playoffs. Get your popcorn ready.
I agree that we should let Moreno go if it gives the Timbers more money to work with. He's very good, but he's obviously not completely happy here. But Mosquera? Like Timothy, I don't get the point of scouting for exciting, driven, talented players only to sell their contracts (sorry, I can't bring myself to talk of selling human beings, even though I know it's just a phrase) *because* they're exciting, driven, and talented. I've been waiting for this kind of fullback to join the team since Jorge Moreira went back to Paraguay — the kind where you know that if they capture the ball in the back, they just might carry it all the way to goal.
God I hope you're right on Evander. I'd love to watch him in the Green and Gold for the next decade.