The Timbers’ winless streak is over, and the San Jose Earthquakes are still winless at Providence Park. Will this team ever play a normal game?
Tonight’s starting XI lined up in a 3-4-3. Larrys Mabiala joined the back three between Kamal Miller and Dario Zuparic. Dairon Asprilla and Juan Mosquera started as the wingbacks, with Evander and Diego Chara forming the double pivot. Antony, Felipe Mora, and Santiago Moreno started up top. 6 minutes in, Amahl Pellegrino put the ball in the back of the net, but an offside flag kept the game scoreless. That was the correct call. Portland tried to probe to find a breakthrough, but the visitors struck first after Jeremy Ebobisse’s header off of a corner kick was punched away by Maxime Crepeau right into Pellegrino’s path for an easy finish. 1-0 Quakes, 31 minutes in. Could the Timbers fight back? Well, maybe, but Mabiala got his pocket picked on the halfway line by Hernan Lopez and the Quakes’ record signing chipped Crepeau from just inside the Timbers’ half. 2-0 Quakes, 34 minutes in. Wow. Portland didn’t pick up the tempo for the rest of the half, and entered the locker room to a chorus of boos from the Timbers Army.
Because this team can never be normal, anything could happen in the second half. The Timbers switched to a back four coming out of the half but continued their sluggish pace. However, the first wake-up happened when Lopez hit the crossbar in the 51st minute. Portland did try to be more direct, but the players were not on the same page. Once again, the game changed on a red card. Mora had a wide open chance that got cleared off the line by Bruno Wilson. Unfortunately for Wilson, it hit his hand, and he was sent off for DOGSO (denial of an obvious goal-scoring opportunity). More on that later. Evander stepped up to take the penalty, and slotted it past William Yarbrough in the 76th minute. However, the Timbers were still down a goal, and could count themselves lucky when the turf monster swallowed up Pellegrino on a wide-open breakaway two minutes later. Zuparic had to do some desperate defending as well to stop a potentially dangerous Cristian Espinoza cross two minutes after Pellegrino’s slip. But the tide truly turned in the 80th minute. Kamal Miller played a perfect pass through two lines to find Evander, who passed it to Jonathan Rodriguez. The Uruguayan scored his second Sunshine Goal in four home games to tie the game. The Timbers kept pushing, and in the 86th minute Evander sent a ball into the box looking for Rodriguez. Yarbrough collided with him, and initially the referee awarded a free kick to San Jose. But VAR stepped in, and the call was reversed after review. Mora stepped up and roofed the penalty. Back on top. But as we all know, no lead is safe with this team. San Jose had a couple more chances, but Crepeau claimed two dangerous crosses. Finally, San Jose put in a last-gasp free kick into the box. Eric Miller cleared the resulting shot off the goal-line, and the counter was on. Moreno had all the free space in the world, and he drove downfield before passing it to Rodriguez, who scored his first brace with a clean finish past Yarbrough to ice the game with the final kick of the game. 4-2. Three points at home. The nine-match winless streak is over.
The first graphic of note is the match momentum chart, measured by xT (expected threat). This metric measures the value of possession that each team has during a match.
The Timbers had 64% possession in the first half, but couldn’t really do anything with it. San Jose, meanwhile, had very few chances but converted the best ones they had. While the back three did an excellent job of providing defensive stability and structure, the Timbers were unable to make it work in the attack. They also kept making stupid mistakes (Jebo being unmarked on the header that led to the first goal, Mabiala’s giveaway, several other ones that didn’t get punished). The team just needs some more time to train in this new look and I believe that it can become the best possible formation for this squad. Having some better personnel choices (Claudio Bravo and Miguel Araujo missed this game) would also help. But the Timbers still need to work on the attack, and the most important thing they are missing is confidence. Yes, tactics can still solve for a lot, but the organization provided by the back three can easily help this attack get back into gear. Let’s take one moment out-of-possession as an example.
Felipe Mora overcommitted on his press, and he moved out to the extreme right of the formation. Santiago Moreno was aware enough to slide over and occupy the center part of the formation, but still ceded a little ground to San Jose’s center backs. But Mora was able to recover and get back to the middle, and San Jose was unable to take advantage of Mora’s overcommitment. I didn’t record the exact minute of this action in my notes, but it could have been punished if Moreno didn’t slide over. If the Timbers can become more solid out of possession, they can improve the attack.
This map brings joy to my eyes. With a better defensive shape, the Timbers were able to win the ball back higher up the pitch and press their advantage. The real struggle came around the box, when the Timbers were unable to get creative to find openings. They were playing scared, not safe. During the first half, two Brazilians (Evander and Antony), Dairon Asprilla (the chaos king), Santiago Moreno and Juan Mosquera (two wild-cards) were on the pitch and none of them were willing to try anything wacky. After the Seattle game, I was begging for the Timbers to introduce chaos into this game. It desperately needed it. A lot of these defensive actions came from the first half, and the Timbers did not capitalize on them. Something to keep working on.
Just like on Sunday, the referee stole the show. I made two predictions in the press box prior to this game, and one of them was that the referee wasn’t going to be too much of a problem (we’ll get to the other one later, and yes I was wrong about the second one too). After a Chapman disasterclass against Seattle, the Timbers finally got the refereeing luck that has been avoiding them all season. Well, not entirely. Pellegrino is obviously offside on the first goal, and if the Timbers failed to get a result from this game I would be steaming mad about it. But a bad referee is bad for both teams. The big decision from this match was Wilson’s red card and the resulting penalty, and I do not envy Pierre-Luc Laziere for having to make this decision.
Two things must be considered. The first thing is whether or not the ball hits Wilson’s hand. It unmistakably hits his hand. But handballs have another criteria they must meet for the penalty to be so severe. Is his arm in an unnatural position? Based on this still image from the moment his hand makes contact, it’s almost impossible to overturn this call. Remember, Lauziere’s initial ruling was a penalty and a red card. This shot would have hit his right butt cheek if his hand wasn’t there, but he’s trying to tuck his arm in at the same time. His elbow is bent, and the ball hits his elbow as well. Armando Villareal, the VAR official, doesn’t see a “clear and obvious error” so he doesn’t sent Lauziere to the VAR monitor. It’s a really unfortunate break for San Jose, but the best possible one for the Timbers. Now they have a way back into the game and a man advantage for the remaining 15 minutes plus stoppage time. If this call happens against Portland, I’m furious. Do not be mad at any Quakes fan for their furor over this massive decision. But, at the same time, it balances out Pellegrino’s offside goal in the first half. The two decisions aren’t even, but both teams have bones to pick with the refereeing. The second penalty given to Portland is the correct call, and there’s no disagreeing with it. Villareal did the right thing by recommending a VAR check, and Lauziere correctly overturned his initial call and awarded a penalty. But there was a dubious yellow card given to Kamal Miller after he made a clean tackle around midfield in the 82nd minute. The Timbers were on the right side of the big decision, but it was a poorly refereed game regardless.
Time to start off the player ratings, and I’m going to go from back to front. Some people were clamoring for James Pantemis to start this game, but Maxime Crepeau was healthy and available so he got another start. For the first time this season, I have a legitimate criticism of Crepeau. He’s very active inside and outside his box, but there’s one tendency of his that I’m slowly souring on. I’ve already stated that Pellegrino’s goal was offside, but Crepeau should be credited with a secondary assist on it. There are two errors on that goal. The first is on the Timbers’ combined set piece defense for losing track of Jeremy Ebobisse. But Crepeau is in a position to catch that header and he punches it directly in front of him into Pellegrino’s path. He likes to punch the ball away, and sometimes it creates chances for the opposition. However, when the game was nearing its end, Crepeau made several high claims to snuff out threatening crosses. That criticism isn’t a serious problem, but it does require the defenders in front of him to be more alert. On the second goal, he’s off his line to help with the buildup. I don’t have an issue with that because the turnover is the real problem. I’m happy that he got to celebrate his first win at Providence Park as a Timber, and the Canadian goalkeeper said that he felt relieved after the game. Winning a game is really fun. This team should do it more often.
Juan Mosquera finally got a long-awaited start at right wing-back, and did a pretty solid job. With the extra creative freedom, he was able to be a solid outlet on the right side. Sometimes he wasn’t on the same page as Santiago Moreno, but I thought he had a good game overall. Just need him to try getting to the end line and playing some more cutback balls rather than sending in crosses towards the far post. But that’s a confidence thing, and winning can help confidence. Winning a game is really fun. This team should do it more often.
Dario Zuparic started on the right side of the back three, and had another strong performance. Since a subpar performance as a substitute in Charlotte, he has reasserted himself as one of the top centerback options on the team. He defends like a warrior and isn’t afraid to try a long ball. He is a Sharpied-in starter in both a back three and back four.
Kamal Miller didn’t look like he was fully 100%, but that didn’t stop him from putting in another excellent performance. I would like to draw your attention to his hockey assist on Jonathan Rodriguez’s first goal. No other defender on this team would attempt a pass like that, and Evander was able to turn it into a chance that Rodriguez finished. When Felipe Mora scored the go-ahead penalty, Miller ran towards Crepeau to celebrate. “We go way back and we know the efforts that we’re putting in every single day,” Crepeau said in the post-game press conference. The two Canadians have been brought in to bring the Timbers back to the playoffs and beyond, and performances like Kamal’s stellar effort tonight will only help this team get closer to that goal. Plus, he has embraced the supporters and has quickly become a fan favorite. Go check his Twitter page if you haven’t already. I would also like to wish him an early happy birthday, and I hope that this victory is a wonderful gift. He did his part tonight, and he deserves to celebrate three points with his good friend.
Now we arrive at my second dubious pre-game prediction. I was expecting Larrys Mabiala to turn back the clock and remind everyone why he belongs on the MLS-era Timbers Best XI (he does and I will hear no arguments to the contrary). Unfortunately, the giveaway that led to the second San Jose goal was a black eye on an otherwise solid performance. He was rightly substituted at halftime as the team was chasing the game. Can we please get one more vintage Mabiala game before he inevitably departs the club at the end of this season?
Dairon Asprilla was listed as questionable coming into this game, so I didn’t think he would start. But he did, and put in another good shift at left wing-back. His halftime substitution was pretty harsh, but I think his injury status played a bigger role than I thought in real-time. He was willing to be direct and did a good job holding his shape. Cristian Espinoza is a tough player to keep quiet, and Asprilla did a good job keeping him in check for the first half.
Diego Chara did more Diego Chara things, but he did lose Ebobisse on San Jose’s first goal. However, it’s also a larger symptom of the Timbers’ ever mediocre set piece defense, so I’m willing to let it slide. Sigh. He did a good job with his passing, but still didn’t take a ton of risks. In the latter minutes of the first half, Neville was directing him to drop deeper into the backline to help in possession. This did open up some space farther up the pitch, but the Timbers were unable to capitalize on it.
This was a curious game for Evander. He started out in the double pivot with Chara, then stayed there after the halftime switch back to the 4-2-3-1, and then ended the night as a 10. He continues to be one of the only players to actually try something wacky in the final third, so he’ll always get a pass from me if some of his passes miss their targets. He did a good job out of possession, and he scored a penalty. But his flick-on to Rodriguez on the Timbers’ equalizer was sensational. He’s so good at recognizing space and he didn’t look too out of sorts moving back a line in the formation. Good to see him healthy and starting again. I’m also going to include a nugget from training here. I witnessed the Timbers practice a back three during an open training session on Tuesday. Neville was leading the drill, but Evander was the most vocal player during a defensive shadow play exercise. The trust that Neville has put in him to be a leader seems to be paying off.
I have been down on Antony for the past couple of weeks, but I think I’ve solved the puzzle. He looks a lot more confident on the right side than he does on the left. After another mediocre first half, he was the most consistent threat on the team after halftime up until his exit. Sure, his final product isn’t always there, but he looked like a new player when the halftime shift required him to go to the right wing spot. He is a true winger and he’s still got tons of speed to burn.
Santiago Moreno continues to infuriate me. Since he has been on the team for almost 3 full years, I expect a lot out of him. Today, he got another assist (Rodriguez’s second) but he continued to turn the ball over in the first half. The stat sheet still loves him, and he did pick up his play after the red card. Like everyone else, I’m just begging for some more consistency. His off-ball work was brilliant, but he can get so tied up around the box. Hopefully this win will boost his confidence.
Felipe Mora did a good job off the ball, and he scored the eventual winner from the penalty spot. In preseason, it looked like he had lost a step, but he’s fully back to the poacher we all know him as. If Wilson hadn’t handled the ball, he would have scored from open play. He is begging for someone to find him with a cutback ball, and the Timbers don’t do a lot of that. He needs service, and sending in aerial crosses isn’t the best way to feed the Chilean.
Now we get to the substitutes, and I’m going to start off with my Man of the Match. Jonathan Rodriguez was not happy to miss out on a start. Neville explained his thought process post-game, and he mentioned that he wanted Rodriguez “hungry and angry” coming off the bench. Well, Rodriguez has played in 9 matches for the Timbers so far, and tonight he finally celebrated a victory with his new team. How did he do that, you might ask? Tonight, Jonathan Rodriguez disappeared, and was replaced by the hungry and angry Cabecita. His halftime introduction led to a Timbers win, and he can be credited with 3 goals. The first was his smooth finish past Yarbrough in the 80th minute. But he finally won a penalty for his new team, and it turned out to be the winner. His second goal with the last kick of the game clinched the victory for the Timbers, and no one was happier than him. That is the dangerous goalscorer that the Timbers wanted.
Eric Miller was the other halftime sub, and he didn’t get off to the best start. However, he made the most important defensive action of the match. He cleared a ball off of the goal-line to firmly deny the Quakes a result. But when he came on, he played left back in a back four. I think he would fit in really well as the right-sided center back in a back three. Give him his flowers for tonight.
Cristhian Paredes is my favorite supersub on this team. Last year, before the injuries struck, Paredes was a breath of fresh air off the bench. He used his powers to lead the Timbers to a 4-1 victory over Seattle before taking over the starting job after David Ayala’s ACL tear. Tonight, he stepped into a double pivot alongside Chara, completed 93% of his passes, put in some excellent defensive work, and created 2 chances in just under 40 minutes. It seems so unfair to him that he lost his starting job, but he still brings the heat off the bench. Excellent work from the Paraguayan to get the win and 3 points.
The Timbers needed chaos in the first half, but the true chaos entered in the 90th minute after Mora’s penalty. Putting Nathan Fogaca into the match to play as a 10 is like giving a bear a paintbrush; I’m just really curious to see what they’d do with it. Fogaca had one shot (wildly off-target), misplayed some short passes, but provided the energy necessary to close this game out. An electric (although unproductive) cameo from the Brazilian tonight.
Phil Neville spoke to reporters for 13 minutes after this game, and his remarks ranged from Anfield comparisons to the suffering people of Portland (I would recommend watching the entire press conference). Timbers fans (never change please) roasted their head coach’s take on tonight’s atmosphere. However, across all of his answers one theme remained: patience. Crepeau echoed the coach’s ideas of his “Timbers project,” and all projects take time. Getting a consistently healthy backline would be an excellent start. But Neville also stated that the supporters played a huge role in getting the team back into this game. While the team headed into the locker room at halftime after an uninspiring first half, boos began to rain down from the Timbers Army towards the coach. But those boos turned to cheers when the players approached the tunnel. Yeah, that half was bad, but I only have one question: why are you only booing the coach?
Tonight, Neville made the changes that he has been alluding to for the past week and a half. Not only that, it was a pretty big shift. The Timbers have started in different formations for the previous 3 matches. The trusty 4-2-3-1 to start the Charlotte game, a compact 4-4-2 against Seattle, and finally an organized 3-4-3 tonight against San Jose. It wasn’t Neville who got his pocket picked on San Jose’s second goal. He also didn’t lose Ebobisse on the Earthquakes’ opening strike. Tonight, Phil Neville put Dairon Asprilla at left wing-back from the opening whistle and dropped the team’s new star to the bench. While all of his decisions weren’t incredibly successful, he did what he knew he had to do: shake it up. When the Timbers entered halftime down 2-0, he made two changes for the start of the second half. This team hasn’t made the playoffs in either of the past two seasons, and he’s working with a large group of players from both of those disappointing years. Those players, by the way, were playing scared in the attack against the worst defensive team in MLS on their home turf. Evander talked about the boos in his post-game press conference: “After the first half, going into the locker room, we heard some boos at Phil. All the players, we had the same feeling, like we need to change this now or it’s gonna stay like this forever. Phil is doing everything he can to push the team and he’s putting the best players on the pitch. We’ve also been working a lot harder to change this moment we’ve been going through. So, after the first half, we had to change our mentality.”
It took a crossbar hit to fully wake them up, and then they rode the momentum of the red card (and the man advantage) to break the longest winless streak in MLS Timbers history. They kept the San Jose Earthquakes from getting their first MLS-era win at Providence Park. They kept Jeremy Ebobisse off the scoresheet. Despite their incredible recovery, it was far from a stellar performance. But the result is what really matters tonight.
Ahead of today’s game, and throughout it, Neville kept pointing to the current league table. On that table, the Timbers were bottom, trailing these San Jose Earthquakes on goal differential. But they got the win they needed tonight, and now they are out of the basement and back in 11th; tied on points with the Seattle Sounders. Tonight’s result brought confidence, but it also needs to bring momentum. Tomorrow, the Timbers depart for Minnesota. They have never won in Minnesota. This win is incredibly fluky in so many ways. But, at the end of the day, 3 points is 3 points. Now they have to turn this confidence into momentum. Some returning players can help with that. As long as the players believe they can win, they will put in match-winning performances. Inconsistency has been the calling card of the 2024 Timbers. Can they erase the individual mistakes while building a solid defensive shape that can attack directly? That’s what they have to solve. The 3-4-3 from tonight was an excellent start, and it will get better. The pieces to win games now are on this team. But they have to perform like it. But tonight is a good night to be a Timber. For the first time in 49 years of the club’s history, the Timbers have won a game by multiple goals after trailing by multiple goals. Winning a game is really fun. This team should do it more often.
Great read. At halftime about 1130 my time I was wondering why I was staying up.
I'm glad I did!
Yes, I agree Jeremy, with your analysis.
1. The 3-4-3 really did provide some defensive structure. San Jose couldn't really figure it out, and if someone made a mistake, then there was someone else ready to clean up. It just seemed to give more structure and they seemed more at ease in it. As you mentioned, having Bravo and Araujo would be really great. The other thing is that Evander played the 8 and you can tell he relishes that. It didn't work so great offensively in the final third because as you mentioned, antony was on the left and Moreno just isn't keen on crossing or taking guys on down the line like Antony would and did on the right. It's criminal by Phil to play people out of position. It's like going into a fight with two hands tied behind your back. I'd like to see Rodriguez, Mora and Antony up top on that formation. Mosquera is a little more palatable as a wing back.
2. I'm a little worried about Crepeau. I need to see some clean sheets before I feel better.
3. Just get it to your big guns. Evander and Rodriguez, once they started getting the ball, good things happened. Conversely, less of Moreno and Mosquera would be a good thing. For the amount of touches they get, they should be doing more, but they are fairly wasteful. Moreno just seems really raw to me in the final third and as I've mentioned many times, just doesn't have a nose for the goal and is not wing material. Mosquera troubles me, too.
4. It is really great to win. I hope they can get everybody healthy so we can see the best version of the Timbers, and see if Phil can actually do something with this team.
5. Crazy decisions to be made- but yes, I think it is a red all day. If it is on the goal line and you are the last, it's a dogso. And yes, it was a handball. Unfortunate for SJ. I couldn't believe it was taking so long for the second pk. That one looked pretty clear cut.