Vancouver Whitecaps-Portland Timbers Preview (3/30)
The defending Cascadia Cup holders are looking to start their trophy defense on home soil. Can the Timbers reverse their losing streak following two disappointing results?
For the first time in 2024, the bells are chiming. It’s Cascadia o’clock. The Portland Timbers are heading north of the border to tangle with their ancient rivals: the Vancouver Whitecaps.
The Whitecaps Report
Last season, the Whitecaps did the double. They won the Voyageurs Cup for the second consecutive time. In addition to remaining the champions of Canada, they won the Cascadia Cup for the first time since 2016. How could we let that happen? In 2016, all three Cascadian teams tied with 9 points for the trophy. The Whitecaps won it on goal differential by 1 goal. Keep in mind, the Timbers went into the Decision Day 2016 needing to win in order to secure a playoff berth. They got killed 4-1 in Vancouver, and lost two trophy opportunities in one go. That’s how Vancouver triumphed last time they won the trophy. Last season, they lifted the trophy following the 2-2 draw between the Timbers and Sounders in Seattle. Once again, how could we let that happen? The quest to reclaim the most important trophy in MLS is about to begin, and the Whitecaps have one goal: hold on.
It’s going to be a very special day for the Whitecaps on Saturday. After finishing 6th in the West last season, Vancouver faced LAFC in the first-round Best-of-3 series. This came right after a disappointing 1-1 draw on Decision Day to the Black-and-Gold, which featured 2 missed penalties from captain Ryan Gauld. Game 1 was a bloodbath, finishing 5-2 at BMO Stadium in Los Angeles. The biggest downside of the Best-of-3 format is how the scorelines mean absolutely nothing. All that matters is win, loss, or draw. Either way, Game 2 took place at BC Place. Denis Bouanga scored a penalty, and it was all on the Whitecaps to tie it up to force a penalty shootout. In second half stoppage-time, Vancouver had a corner. It was cleared, but referee Timothy Ford and midfielder Alessandro Schopf collided just outside the “D” at the top of the penalty area. LAFC won the ball back, countered, and scored a goal that was later ruled out. No free kick was awarded to Vancouver, and this sent manager Vanni Sartini into a rage. He was shown a red card and went to the locker room. In his post-match press conference, Sartini laid into Ford, even joking that he’d be a prime suspect if Ford was found dead following the match. For this obvious crossing of the line, Sartini was handed a five-match ban on top of the red card. This meant that Vancouver would be without their head coach for the first 6 games of 2024. Well, in a shocking move, MLS reduced his suspension.
This is a screencap from a South Park episode about the economy. The joke is that the United States government makes economic decisions in completely nonsensical fashions that don’t make any sense at all. It can also apply to MLS because they are awfully inconsistent in terms of reducing suspensions. We don’t know exactly what goes on behind closed doors, but it would probably be something similar to this headless chicken dancing around a chart like a macabre Magic 8-Ball. Another player who got suspended during last year’s playoffs was Philly left back Kai Wagner. Wagner allegedly used a racial slur towards New England striker Bobby Wood, and Wagner was hit with a 3-game suspension. Right before the season started, Wagner’s suspension was lifted after only serving two of the three games in the playoffs. First of all, although Sartini’s comments could be seen in a joking manner, he was hit with a five-match ban. Wagner, who was definitely NOT joking when using a racial slur, got suspended for only three games. Not only are the two situations varying degrees of severity, one is OBVIOUSLY WORSE than the other, and got punished less severely. I’m not even going to get into the Bruce Arena situation because I could write a whole article of speculation about it and we’re not playing New England. Bottomline, if you want to improve the behavior of coaches and players around the league, hold them accountable. Either way, Sartini’s suspension got reduced after only serving four out of the six games, and his first game back is on Saturday night against the Timbers. So how have the Whitecaps been doing without their head coach on the sidelines?
Vancouver has been a confusing team to figure out in the first month of the MLS season. They are 2-1-1 (7 points) and sit 3rd in the West with a game in hand over most of their conference rivals. Both of their wins have been on the road, and both of their non-wins have been at home. The 2-0 win over San Jose wasn’t shocking because the 2024 Earthquakes are not a good team. Neither is FC Dallas, who the Whitecaps beat 3-1 a week later. But last week, they hosted a depleted RSL down several key contributors. Damir Kreilach scored for the hosts (weird, right?) to give Vancouver a 1–0 lead heading into halftime. But in the second half, RSL dominated. They scored twice and probably deserved more and beat the Whitecaps in their own building. Which Whitecaps can the Timbers expect on Saturday?
Well, to start out, the Whitecaps have the highest npG-npXg differential in the league. Their 7 non-penalty goals is double their 3.5 non-penalty expected goals. This is due to 3 of those goals coming from set pieces. But the story of 2024 has been their attack. The aforementioned Damir Kreilach is a good addition on paper, but he’s throwing the balance of their forward unit out of line. Last season, Ryan Gauld was a MVP candidate playing as a second striker alongside Brian White with tons of freedom to roam. White’s effectiveness has also been diminished with Kreilach’s presence. Their forward line is out of balance and it’s still something that Sartini needs to solve. Their defense is still solid, however. Yohei Takaoka is the most underrated goalkeeper in MLS, and the back three of Tristan Blackmon, Matias Laborda, and Ranko Veselinovic is a formidable unit. Defensive midfielder Andres Cubas also belongs in the underrated section. Sartini prefers to use wingbacks, and the options he has available in 2024 is a downgrade from last season, when Richie Laryea and Julian Gressel were bombing down the wing. Left wingback Sam Adekugbe hasn’t played a single minute in 2024 due to a knee injury. Alessandro Schopf, Pedro Vite, and Ali Ahmed are all starting-quality central midfielders. While Vancouver has started off the season steadily, they are a lot more dangerous than the results seen in 2024 thus far.
Vancouver has three players on their injury report. Brian White and Luis Martins are both out. Sam Adekugbe is questionable. White’s absence is massive, and it’s going to be hard for Sartini to plan around it after selling backup striker Simon Becher to Danish team Horsens.
Here’s the best that I can come up with. Damir Kreilach should fill in for Brian White up top, with Gauld alongside him as a free-roaming second forward. Ryan Raposo and Javain Brown should be the wingbacks with Adekugbe available off the bench. Pedro Vite, Alessandro Schopf, and Andres Cubas should be the midfield three. Ali Ahmed could start, but I think Sartini will use him as a supersub. The back three of Tristan Blackmon, Ranko Veselinovic, and Matias Laborda is Sharpied in. Yohei Takaoka is one of the most underrated goalkeepers in the league (I know I’m repeating myself but he’s really good). Fafa Picault and Sebastian Berhalter are other names to watch off the bench. This is a very good Vancouver team, even though White is absent.
The Timbers Report
It cannot be understated how much of a disappointment last Saturday was. The Timbers did a lot right, but they also screwed up when it mattered the most. Based on their performance, they did not deserve to lose 3-1 to a depleted Philadelphia Union team. But when the defense switches off three times and the attack fails to convert their chances, you get a result that matches what you saw on the field. So it’s no surprise that the Timbers (2-1-2, 7 points) were working on finishing this week in training.
Through the first 5 games of the season, the Timbers have already put up some interesting stats. Santiago Moreno is currently tied with LA’s Joseph Paintsil with 56 progressive passes received. Antony clocks in at 9th in the same category. Maxime Crepeau has only started 3 games, but he’s tied for 4th in MLS with a +2.8 PSxG-GA differential. This metric calculates how good a goalkeeper has been in terms of preventing shots from reaching the back of the net. Through 3 games, Crepeau has already saved almost 3 goals above expected. That’s an incredible performance from the new goalkeeper. Crepeau is no stranger to the Vancouver Whitecaps after spending 3 seasons at BC Place. This isn’t the first time he’s had to return to Vancouver, but it is his first time coming back as a Cascadia rival. Does anything change for him? “Nothing really changes for me in regards to my preparation. I guess I’m going to get some heat.” It’s been a big week for Crepeau and fellow Canadian national team member Kamal Miller. After beating Trinidad and Tobago 2-0 last weekend, Canada will compete in Copa America this summer. “It’s an objective of ours, as a nation.” Now Crepeau and Miller are back with the Timbers, and they must travel to their home country to turn around their club team’s slump.
Three Timbers are listed on the injury report. Claudio Bravo and Marvin Loria are both out, and Bravo is about a week away from a return to the pitch. Larrys Mabiala is also out with a leg injury.
Kamal Miller and Maxime Crepeau return to the team following their Canadian conquest last weekend. Zuparic drops to the bench. The front four should remain the same. This week’s answer to the double pivot problem is David Ayala, and I’m about to explain why. Eryk Williamson, Cristhian Paredes, Felipe Mora, and Dairon Asprilla are all excellent options to bring in off the bench.
Tactical Preview
Ayala offers something that Williamson and Paredes do not: a combination of defensive tenacity and long-range passing. Paredes is very good defensively, but isn’t great on the ball and is a lot better as a box-crasher. Williamson is excellent on the ball, but he excels with short passing and ball-carrying. All three of the midfielders who could partner Diego Chara each bring a different dimension to the team. Last season, Ayala made his first start against Seattle alongside Chara. I think a fully healthy David Ayala is the best option to start in the double pivot due to the fact that he excels in both disciplines: attack and defense. With Ayala and Kamal Miller in the team from the start, the Timbers can add another dimension to their attack.
That dimension was sorely missing last week against Philadelphia: long-range passing. The Timbers tried to unlock Philly bit-by-bit with quick combinations of passes, which had some success early on. But after Philly grabbed the lead, they didn’t adapt. Ayala and Miller can both help the Timbers try multiple different ways to unlock a solid Vancouver back three. Ayala and Miller can also help unlock the left side of the pitch, another area of the attack that was seemingly absent against Philadelphia. Getting Antony and Evander more involved will help the Timbers immensely in the final third.
Santiago Moreno and Juan Mosquera’s partnership on the right side has been talked about to death. Both players can play the final pass and the pass-before-the-final-pass. With Jonathan Rodriguez and Antony lurking in the box, they should have plenty of opportunities to get assists on Saturday. Evander just needs to get on the same page as Rodriguez in order to start racking up assist after assist. If I had one thing to tell the attack this weekend, I’d just tell them to shoot more. Finding the best look isn’t the priority, putting the ball in the back of the net is. Despite their underperformance in the finishing department last week and against Houston, the Timbers are still outperforming their non-penalty expected goals by 2.5. There is a lot of finishing quality in the team, and the last two weeks are more of a regression to the mean than the new normal.
In order for the Timbers to be successful defensively this weekend, they have to contain Ryan Gauld. In their last matchup with Vancouver, Gauld wreaked havoc on the Timbers’ backline. If he’s going to be free-roaming (which I expect him to be) the Timbers need to keep an eye on him. Vancouver has also scored 3 of their 7 goals on set pieces, so this is gut-check time for the Timbers’ set piece defense. So far in 2024, the Timbers have conceded two set piece goals in 5 games. One was on a second ball, and the other was on the primary ball. Defending the wings and defending set pieces are the two big-picture keys to this game. Vancouver’s wingbacks love to get forward and provide crosses. Another big game for Juan Mosquera, especially if Adekugbe gets minutes.
Final Thoughts
In his pre-match press conference, Phil Neville brought up something a fan told him at a fan forum. “You could lose every game, but you have to beat Vancouver and Seattle.” Giovanni Savarese always understood the importance of the Cascadia games. This is Phil Neville’s first Cascadia game, and he seems to understand how important these games are to the fanbase. Vancouver may hold the Cascadia Cup, but Portland has the advantage in the historical record. Since both teams joined MLS, the Timbers are 17-8-11 against Vancouver, including a record of 8-2-7 at BC Place. But that’s not the craziest stat I can find from these meetings. Since xG was first tracked in 2018, the Timbers have visited BC Place 7 times, posting a record of 3-0-4. In only two of those seven matches, the team that had the higher xG number won the game. Rivalry matches are weird, but stats can go out the window when two rivals meet.
The Timbers have lost two straight matches and are desperately looking to get back on the right track as they enter the most difficult part of the schedule. For reference:
This is the first Cascadia Cup match of the season, and the next one happens in six weeks. It’s the first match in a gauntlet of fixtures. Previously, I said that this seven-game stretch would give us a serious idea about how good this team is. Starting it off with three points against a hated rival would be an excellent way to get some momentum.
It always seems like a slugfest against Vancouver with 1-0 scores. I hope it is more open and the
Timbers get in behind a few times to loosen them up and then control the game. Looking forward to the game.