Toronto FC-Portland Timbers Preview (6/28)

A return to action against a desperate opponent.

There were zero MLS games last weekend. For the Portland Timbers, it was a time to rest and recharge. But now it’s back to business as usual. The final East Coast trip of the season is here: a visit to Toronto.

The Toronto Report

It’s been a while (three years) since these two teams last met. What has changed in Canada’s biggest city during that time frame?

Let’s begin by establishing a fact: during the late 2010s, Toronto FC was a powerhouse. Led by Sebastian Giovinco, Jozy Altidore, and Michael Bradley, the Reds were a perennial title contender and made 3 MLS Cup Finals in 4 years. Once the calendar shifted to the 2020s, Toronto fell into obscurity. In 2022, the Reds beat Portland 3-1 at BMO Field. That game occurred in the midst of a dreadful season that saw Toronto pick up 34 points from 34 games and finish second-to-last in the East. They went from a near-dynasty to complete obscurity. And it got even worse in 2023.

Head coach Bob Bradley was fired in June 2023 with the club at the absolute bottom of the Shield standings. Canadian National Team head coach John Herdman was hired as his replacement, but he wouldn’t take charge until the offseason. In the meantime, the Reds won the Wooden Spoon and were tabbed to rebound in 2024 with a new head coach.

Herdman’s spell began positively as the team surged into the playoff places by the end of May. However, their top-heavy roster led by Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Bernardeschi finished with a goal differential of -21 and 37 points. Because the Eastern Conference was so bad in 2024, Toronto was only 3 points out of a playoff spot when the season ended. Although 2024 was very disappointing, there was some slight optimism heading into 2025 as Herdman’s project entered year two. But when the 2025 season began, Herdman wasn’t on the sideline.

Canadians do not have a reputation as cheaters, but that was before both of their national teams were caught using drones to spy on training sessions of their opposition. Herdman resigned in November 2024 as the investigation progressed. Former Colorado head coach and Toronto assistant Robin Fraser was hired to replace Herdman. So how did the Reds improve the roster in the offseason?

Not really. Insigne’s entire tenure in Toronto has been marked by disappointment and the team desperately tried to get the second-highest paid player in the league off the books during the winter. That didn’t happen, and there’s a ton of money tied up in Insigne’s deal that severely limited their ability to spend. Their 2 biggest acquisitions were loans for winger Theo Corbeanu and striker Ola Brynhildsen. The Norwegian striker was brought in to replace the released Prince Owusu. Without serious roster turnover, Toronto was destined for the basement again. When I filled out my preseason table predictions, Toronto was my Spoon pick. Was that prediction accurate?

No one could have foreseen the LA Galaxy’s rapid fall from the top. But Toronto’s (3-5-10, 14 points, 14E/28S) poor campaign was pretty predictable. Despite having the most money attributed to attackers (more than Inter Miami, by the way) the Reds have scored the 4th-fewest goals in the league. Insigne’s poor output (1g/2a in 12 games) could be blamed, but this team has almost zero ideas going forward. No teams have generated less than Toronto’s 16.3 non-penalty expected goals. They aren’t awful against the ball, but they simply don’t score or create enough to win games. Every other bottom-feeder in the league has at least one interesting piece. But Toronto is devoid of anything exciting. They are the most boring team in the league.

TOR Injury Report & Projected Starting XI

Bernardeschi is the biggest name here, and he’s questionable with a lower body injury. He did not make the matchday squad on Wednesday. Monlouis started, but got hurt and was subbed off in the 41st minute. Club captain Jonathan Osorio returned from international duty with an injury. The most notable international absence is defensive midfielder Deybi Flores, not Richie Laryea. The Canadian international has only played in 3 MLS games all season.

Two changes from Wednesday’s team: Thompson in for Monlouis and Insigne for Derrick Etienne Jr. I could see a start from Deandre Kerr in place of Brynhildsen but the young Canadian striker is working his way back from injury. If Bernardeschi is cleared to start, he’d play on the right with Corbeanu moving to the left. The midfield three is pretty settled with the absence of Osorio. This is not a very good team, but they are desperate for a home win after authoring a 1-3-7 home record so far.

The Timbers Report

As the Timbers (8-6-4, 30 points, 4W/9S) return from their 2 week break, there isn’t a lot of on-field news to discuss. After a non-eventful week following the San Jose draw, it seemed like every newsworthy bit of information came all at once. Let’s break it down, starting with the much-anticipated salary release.

Salary Release!

Let’s begin with the new players. Da Costa joins Jonathan Rodriguez in “true DP” territory. Kevin Kelsy ranks 6th and has the largest U22 Initiative contract in Timbers history. Fernandez’s salary seems exorbitant, but the Rapids used a fair amount of GAM to buy down his contract before the season. His cap hit for 2025 is very team-friendly. Joao Ortiz was not listed as a TAM player on the roster profile, so it’s fair to assume that the Timbers have used a lot of allocation money to buy down his cap hit. Reminder: transfer fees are factored into cap hits. I think that’s very stupid. Portland decided to make Fory a TAM player and allow his transfer fee to significantly affect his cap hit. Lassiter’s salary is just under half of the senior max ($743,750). Ian Smith is on a Reserve Minimum contract. Zac McGraw’s new contract falls right in the predicted range of $300K-$325K.

There’s a player on here that is no longer a Timber. Miguel Araujo’s $730K salary isn’t on the books anymore. It’s unclear whether or not the Timbers used one of their two guaranteed contract buyouts on Araujo. Earlier this week, Tom Bogert reported that Claudio Bravo is “close” to a departure from the Timbers. Argentinos Juniors and Portland have been in talks about a Bravo transfer, and it looks like another move to clear some cap space. Bravo’s contract is no longer team-friendly at his current salary. Araujo and Bravo’s departures will free up a combined $1.2M in cap space. That’s 20% of the available salary budget.

I think there are more team-friendly contracts on the books than overpays. Ayala, Surman, and Pantemis (arguably the team’s 3 best players) have a combined raw cap hit of $646K. When Antony (the team leader in goal contributions) is added into that triplet, the raw cap hit increases to $846K. That’s $132K more than Cristhian Paredes’ singular salary. In terms of other relative overpays, Lassiter’s deal stands out but it isn’t as offensive as previous iterations of the Timbers keeping players like Jaroslaw Niezgoda and Yimmi Chara on large wages. Flexibility is the key here. Portland is entering the summer window with at least $1.2M in open cap space and an open DP slot. But how much more cap space is open?

Assuming that the Rapids halved Fernandez’s cap hit, the total cost of Portland’s salaries against the cap (before buydowns) is $6,828,140. Now let’s factor in the GAM spent by the Timbers.

Disclaimer: this is all based on educated guesses. Portland took $1.5M GAM from Evander’s $12M sale to Cincinnati (that’s not a guess, it’s confirmed by Ned Grabavoy). If they used all of that GAM to buy down contracts, Portland’s total Salary Budget is $5,328,140. The salary cap is set at $5,950,000. That’s $600K in cap space for the summer right off the bat. Not every bit of GAM is used to buy down salaries. $200K of Portland’s available GAM was traded to Colorado for Fernandez. That GAM number has only been publicly published three times: December, March, and May. In December, the Timbers had $2,767,783 in GAM. That number decreased to $1,049,359 by March, but was increased to $1,604,342 in May. $270K of that increase can be attributed to the sale of an international roster slot to Inter Miami in April. This summer, the Timbers will receive another $1M GAM if they continue with the U22 roster model. Based on Portland’s track record with young international signings, I believe that they won’t be changing the roster model. But they could.

The $1.2M in cap space freed up by Araujo and Bravo’s departures could easily fit a 3rd DP into Portland’s team. Their GAM surplus could be used to acquire more international slots and the Timbers will have two free senior roster slots for new players. That doesn’t account for the roster slot opened for the Rodriguez replacement either. 3 new starters is a definite possibility. More of that GAM could be used to buy down TAM players like Juan Mosquera and Dario Zuparic. So, based on the salary release, here are the base expectations for Portland’s summer window.

3 new players with at least 1 DP. One of those players will be a forward, and one will be a center back. I believe that the third should be a central midfielder (possibly DP-level). Portland is entering this summer a little battered (more on that later) but with massive amounts of roster flexibility. In order to capitalize on a very good roster build, the Timbers have to keep building. Phil Neville wants “2-3 starting-quality players” in this summer window, and there is space on the roster for that.

News Roundup

Antony left the San Jose game early with a hamstring injury, and Phil Neville confirmed this week that the Brazilian winger will be out for “6-8 weeks.” It’s worth noting that the timeline for his injury recovery began two weeks ago after the game, so that number is down to 4-6 weeks at the time of publishing. Ariel Lassiter suffered a hand injury on international duty with Costa Rica and is out for “2-3 weeks.” That’s two left wingers out for the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile, Gage Guerra signed a first-team contract on Thursday. Although the announcement of the deal seems reactionary to Portland’s injury crisis, this contract was in the works for a while. The former University of Louisville striker has a lot of admirers within the organization, and I expect his deal to count as a Reserve Minimum contract against the salary cap.

For the second year in a row, the Timbers have an All-Star! David Da Costa was a coach’s selection for the 2025 MLS All-Star Game. The game will be played on July 23rd in Austin, Texas. The Timbers play LAFC on the road two days later. Personally, I think the MLS All-Star Game is a massive waste of time, but it’s always cool to see a Timber selected.

PTFC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI

No surprises here. Crepeau and Miller are still on international duty. Lassiter successfully underwent surgery to repair his fractured hand this week. McGraw’s back injury is still troublesome, but he’s been slowly working his way back onto the training field.

How do you fill the spot vacated by Antony? I think it’s an excellent time to try a 2-striker system. Kelsy and Mora have only started together once, and it was the season opener. Da Costa slides out to the left to take Antony’s place, and the Ayala-Chara pivot returns. Backline picks itself. Omir Fernandez was subject to plenty of praise from Neville during Friday’s press conference, but a lot of it centered around his ability to change the game from the bench. I think he’s Portland’s most valuable substitute for this game. Gage Guerra will be available as a substitute. With Mora and Kelsy fighting for starts, it appears that both of them will get their wish this weekend.

Tactical Preview

Mentality

That’s right, y’all. We’re kicking off the tactical preview with some mentality talk. “Forget systems, people talk too much about systems. The way we play 3-4-3 is the same way we play 4-2-3-1,” Neville said during Friday’s pre-match press conference. I’ll heed the coach’s point of view even though the Timbers are set to play in a 4-4-2.

Tactics are important for structural purposes. But at the end of the day, mentality dictates what the players do in the overall structure. So what is the key to this game? Taking shots.

You can’t win games without scoring goals. You can’t score goals if you don’t shoot. Despite scoring 26 goals, the Timbers have only taken 205 shots. That’s the 7th-fewest in the league. However, 79 of those shots have found the target (38.5%, 6th-best). That high rate is due to the Timbers trying to scheme high-quality shots from good areas inside the box. But they don’t always generate a ton of those chances due to slow pacing in possession and an unwillingness to generally test opposition goalkeepers.

Sean Johnson has been one of the best goalkeepers during the 2025 season. His post-shot expected goal differential is +7.6. Shooting the ball at every available half-chance is a major key to success. Despite the injuries, Portland is a stronger team than Toronto. They need to play like it. And there’s no better way to do that than shooting the ball early and often.

Left-Wing Da Costa

Despite Neville’s insistence that Da Costa is the team’s number 10, injuries are probably going to force Portuguese Dave to the left wing. Many people were surprised that Da Costa was named to the All-Star team due to relatively low goal contribution numbers. But he’s in the middle of a historic stretch in a category that doesn’t usually catch the eye of pundits: progression.

Da Costa currently leads the league in progressive carries and is tied with Lionel Messi for 6th place in progressive passes. Those numbers tend to jump off the page, so I wanted a bit of historical context. Criteria: at least 130 progressive passes, at least 96 progressive carries, and at least 16 full 90s played.

No other player has reached those numbers in as little time since these stats were first tracked in 2018. Not only that, he’s done it in 279 fewer minutes than Marcelino Moreno. Portuguese Dave is a progression machine.

But can he do it from the left wing? I believe so. I’d like to see if he’s more dangerous around the box from the wide areas rather than through the middle. The Timbers won’t have many problems progressing the ball down the field. But Antony’s absence requires Da Costa to replace another important aspect of the Brazilian’s game: defense.

Federico Bernardeschi (if he starts) is probably going to require some double-teaming, so I’d expect Da Costa to get involved defensively on the left wing. I don’t expect Da Costa to completely replace Antony. That would be ridiculous. But I’m very intrigued to see how he does in a position that many have been clamoring to see him play.

Matchday Info

Announcer Analytics

English: Blake Price & Paul Dolan

Spanish: Jesus Acosta & Max Cordaro

Home radio broadcast from 750 The Game: not available on Apple TV

Broadcast platform: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV

Kickoff time: 4:30 PM PST

Referee Report

Rosendo Mendoza’s 2025 stats: 12 games, 28 fouls/game, 0.42 penalties/game, 4.75 yellows/game, 0.33 reds/game

Last Timbers game officiated: May 18, 2025 vs. SEA 1-1 D

Series History

Historical record: 4-2-5, -1 goal differential

Away record: 1-1-5, -8 goal differential

Current streak: 1 loss

Current road streak: 1 loss

Tomorrow’s game will be the 12th Portland-Toronto game. It will be the third road game in a row. 8 of those 12 will have been played in Toronto. I think that’s ridiculous. By all rights, the next Portland-Toronto fixture should have been a home game. But it isn’t. Sigh.

Table Time

San Diego dethroned Vancouver atop the West for the first time all season after beating the Whitecaps 4-2 at BC Place on Wednesday. Minnesota also tasted victory during midweek with a 3-1 win at home against Houston. San Jose’s rise continues, and now they’re beginning the weekend in 5th place. However, they’re 4 points behind Portland, who have a game in hand. In order to keep pace with the rest of the West, the Timbers have to win tomorrow.

Final Whistle

The Timbers’ early-season climb up the table has been propelled by strong road results. Entering tomorrow’s match, they have a 3-2-3 road record and a goal differential of +1. However, they are winless in their last 3 road matches (0-1-2). Winning tomorrow would also tie their record for most road wins in a MLS season.

There is going to be some rust at the start of tomorrow’s game. You could make the case that Toronto’s midweek draw against the Red Bulls actually favors the hosts because they gained some match sharpness and didn’t have to travel. But Toronto’s last game before Wednesday was on May 31st when they lost 2-0 at home to Charlotte. As a matter of fact, the Reds have only played 2 road games in their last 11 MLS matches. Oddly enough, they won both of them (RSL and Montreal). But this massive homestand has been a disaster with a 1-2-6 record in those last 9 home games. After tomorrow’s game, 4 of their next 5 are on the road. This is their last chance to get a massive 3 points at home before they begin to travel again.

The Timbers aren’t looking at that recent home record and licking their chops. They’re fully prepared for a desperate Toronto team that will go all out tomorrow. “They’ve been in every single game,” Neville said on Friday. But he also laid out his expectations for this game: “We’re not going to change the way we want to play.” The Portland Timbers relaxed and recharged during the international break. But now it’s back to business, and they’re going to have to deal with a team that will not quit under any circumstances. The climb continues.