Timbers Sign Antony
No, not that one (I'm getting Claudio Bravo flashbacks).
Going into the summer transfer window, it was clear that the Timbers needed to sign another winger. I can confirm today that the deal is done. Brazilian winger Antony Alves Santos comes to Portland from Portuguese club Arouca for a rumored fee of $3.5 million.
No, he’s not the Antony that Erik Ten Haag brought to Manchester United from Ajax, but he’s still an exciting prospect. He’s only played two senior seasons of top-flight soccer. The Portuguese league is interesting. The top four teams (Porto, Benfica, Sporting, Braga) usually occupy the top four places. Last season, Arouca was the best of the rest, finishing 5th. They were 20 points out of 4th place and 33 points off title winners Benfica. Next season, they will have European football, entering the Europa Conference League in the qualifying rounds. Transfermarkt lists Antony’s value at $659K (they listed it in euros but I did the conversion. $3.5 million seems like a steep price to pay for someone who’s only had two full senior seasons, so are the Timbers paying for potential?
Last season, Antony played in 33 matches (26 starts). 6g/1a isn’t incredibly impressive, so maybe the underlying numbers are showing that there’s more to his game than just goal involvements.
I am not happy to report on this chart. But it also does match with his counting stats. Antony is a pure finisher on the wing. That is something the Timbers are desperately craving. But outside of finishing, what does he bring? His shot totals aren’t incredibly high either. Maybe he can provide a little in terms of ball progression?
Ouch. It is very clear that he’s not going to provide a ton in any buildup phase. Of course, that can be fixed, and it could be a product of Arouca’s system. He is only 21, and I bet the Timbers are gambling more on his growth and potential than what he’s currently shown. He is very strong defensively, so that is encouraging. If you’re also taking into account the level of competition, it could stand to reason that these numbers could get better in a weaker defensive league like MLS.
Now we begin to figure out how he’s going to fit into the team. Before we can get into his on-field role, the roster must be addressed. Tom Bogert of The Athletic reported that Antony is a U22 Initiative signing. That is good news. If he was the Young DP winger that was heavily rumored I would not be happy with this signing in the slightest. But as a U22 Initiative player, there won’t be humongous expectations at his feet from day one. Now we can truly pay attention to the roster, because at the current moment the Timbers’ roster is illegal. You can’t have more than three U22 players, and the Timbers now have four. David Ayala, Juan David Mosquera, Santiago Moreno, and now Antony are the four players in question. I think the problem is solved for this season, however. The season-ending injury tag (SEI for short) is a rule that the Timbers needed to use this season. If the tag is used on Ayala, the U22 slot would be open for the rest of the season. Antony’s signing all but confirms Ayala being tagged. The real headache will come in the offseason. One of Moreno, Mosquera, or Ayala would need to get moved off that tag. With some transfer rumors circulating about Santi (Boca Juniors apparently have interest, but Moreno has been vocal about wanting to go to Europe), and the still unsolved issue of his possible extension could move him off the tag next season. At least for the rest of 2023, the problem is solved.
Now that he is eligible to be registered, let’s take a look at his fit on the field. He is right footed, but prefers to play on the left. Giovanni Savarese likes to switch his wingers, and odds are he’d be equally effective on the opposite flank. What the stats don’t show you is his play style. He plays, well, like a Brazilian. From the couple of highlight packages I’ve watched, he does have some good feet. I think he could become very good as a direct winger who can beat players on the dribble. The Timbers don’t really have that right now (Moreno is the best dribbler on the flanks currently). That is a welcome dimension to add in the attack. Savarese just has to figure out how to use that extreme directness to the team’s best advantage. In terms of settling in, Evander now has a massive task on his hands. It will probably be up to him to help Antony settle in (obviously the rest of the team will help as well). The Timbers went from Argentina FC to Colombia FC and now they’re taking steps towards Brazil FC. Pretty cool.
I’m still not completely sold on this, but he hasn’t even suited up for the Timbers yet. The important thing to note is the U22 status. Not the Young DP that was promised, but still a necessary addition to the team. I’m still reserving my true judgement until he’s played in a few matches. When the Antony rumors first became public, a number around $6 million was the rumored transfer fee. I can confidently say that $6 million is way too much for him, and while $3.2M is still high, the growth and potential is what the Timbers are paying for. Even though the wing play continues to be pretty ineffective, there’s now a crowded winger room at Providence Park. Competition is going to be fierce.