Things are Broken, Time to Fix Them

The Timbers dug themselves a hole, then clawed themselves out, only to lose on a catastrophic error. Changes are needed.

It feels like a broken record at this point. The Portland Timbers have lost another winnable game. This time, however, the loss is even more inexcusable than what happened last weekend against Philadelphia. A 3-2 loss in Vancouver is the 3rd straight loss for the Portland Timbers, and it drops them farther down the MLS standings.

This match started in the worst way possible. After two minutes, the Timbers were down 1-0 after Ali Ahmed was able to bypass Kamal Miller with a through ball. That though ball found Ryan Gauld, who tried to square it. But it was blocked by Zac McGraw, and the resulting rebound was put home by Gauld at Maxime Crepeau’s near post. 8 minutes later, the Whitecaps were pushing into the Timbers’ box again, and Gauld fired a shot off the crossbar that Juan Mosquera had to clear off the line. The same thing happened again a minute later, but Crepeau saved Gauld’s effort and Pedro Vite put the rebound into the seats. So the Timbers got steamrolled in the first 30 minutes of this game. They were unable to stop any Vancouver counterattacks, and the Whitecaps were able to get their second when Zac McGraw unhelpfully assisted Fafa Picault with a backheel while trying to clear a cross in the 29th minute. However, like the Timbers have done several times this season already on the road, they slowly grew into the game. But they ended the first half with only one shot on target (a weak, deflected effort from Santiago Moreno) while Gauld had 3 shots on target within the first 20 minutes.

And just like many other Timbers road games in 2024, the Timbers took the game to their hosts in the second half. In the 51st minute, some excellent buildup play on the left allowed Cristhian Paredes to find Evander at the top of the box. Evander did what Evander does and fired a screamer into the upper 90 to pull one back for the Timbers. 8 minutes later, Eryk Williamson and Felipe Mora entered the game. And in the 77th minute, Mora got on the end of an inch-perfect Evander cross to tie the game. But, once again, the Timbers defeated themselves. In the 87th minute, Juan Mosquera didn’t close down Sam Adekugbe and he was able to fire a cross into the box. Dario Zuparic and Maxime Crepeau didn’t communicate well enough, and Ryan Raposo was able to smash home the loose ball into the back of the net from point blank range. A final missed chance from Kamal Miller (a header off of a free kick that went just wide) put the final nail in the coffin. The Timbers are 2-1-3 with 3 straight losses.

Last week, I wrote an article about the Timbers’ biggest weakness. “The far post” isn’t just a point on the soccer field. It is a metaphor for the Timbers’ continued inability to keep their focus and composure (read the whole article for a full explanation if you haven’t already). Tonight, even though it didn’t happen in the physical sense, the Timbers got beaten at the far post multiple times. I could talk about the adjustments made in the second half for a very long time (and I will later) but in order for the Timbers to win games on the road they have to start games better. Here’s what the Timbers looked like when they were trying to build out from the back in the first 30 minutes:

This picture isn’t perfect, but it does illustrate the point I’m trying to make. Kamal Miller and Zac McGraw aren’t just tasked with defending, they have to facilitate ball progression. They have four short outlets (Eric Miller, Mosquera, Paredes, Chara) and two long outlets (Antony and Moreno). However, Kamal Miller is the only one of the two who can hit a long pass. Kamal did try to hit several long passes tonight and completed 12 out of 18 attempted. But the Timbers tried to build through the middle, and Vancouver exploited that. Paredes and Chara couldn’t get any space to turn and Vancouver would quickly take the ball away and counter. What makes that so frustrating is how high up the fullbacks are. When the ball is turned over in the midfield, at least 3 Vancouver players would be running at 2 defenseless center backs. Not a recipe for success. There are many effective ways to play out from the back, and the Timbers haven’t figured one out yet. 

But the most concerning part of the first half was the intensity battle. Whenever the Timbers were able to work the ball forward, they were always outnumbered. When Vancouver countered, they were always outnumbered. Here are some halftime stats:

*Vancouver on the left and Portland on the right*

This is ridiculous. It’s a rivalry match, and the Timbers as a whole didn’t show up to the game. But, like we’ve seen many times already in 2024, the second half was different.

The key to the second half was winning the intensity battle. And the Timbers accomplished this by pressing.

This was a common shape I saw out of possession before the 64th minute when Eryk Williamson and Felipe Mora entered the game. The Timbers forced Vancouver RCB Matias Laborda into several mistakes which they tried to capitalize on. But the biggest and most telling shift came after the substitution.

Here is how the Timbers found balance between Evander and Williamson. By playing them as dual 8s, Portland was able to effectively build from the back by adding another short passing option that was good on the ball.  With Evander and Rodriguez on the left, they were able to kick-start attacks down that wing. This led to the equalizer when Evander put in that brilliant cross for Mora to head home at the far post. But the far post giveth and it taketh away. One defensive switch-off in an otherwise brilliant half of defense led to Vancouver walking away with all three points after the Timbers clawed their way back into the game. And because the Timbers were able to get back into this game after that horrific second half, some changes are going to need to happen ahead of next week.

The first is purely tactical. Portland has all the ingredients needed to become an excellent pressing team. Not on a St. Louis or historical Red Bull level, but one that can mask the deficiencies in the backline. It is the one thing that absolutely needs to happen ahead of next weekend’s match in Kansas City. Starting road games on the front foot is the only way forward, and no identity is more front-footed than a strong high press. The mid-block didn’t work in the first half. Plodding (not playing) out from the back in the first half didn’t work. The Timbers are stuck between a ball-dominant possession team and a direct counter-attacking team. We’ve seen glimpses of both so far in 2024. Against Colorado, the Timbers were lightning-quick on the break. Against Philly, they used possession to their benefit before the Union grabbed the lead a half hour into the game. The next step is to use the high press to solve for the ball-progression problem that the Timbers have had when building out from the back. By aiming to win the ball higher up the pitch, attacks can start in the opposition’s own half and put opposing teams on the back foot immediately. It will also help solve for the defensive issues created by the turnovers in the middle third. If the Timbers turn the ball back over after winning it with a press, they aren’t in a position to be immediately exploited by an opposition counter. Vancouver tried to send the ball in over the top, but the back four was able to recover and force the Whitecaps to take speculative efforts from distance. In that second half, the Timbers only allowed two shots from open play inside the penalty spot (the other was an off-target Tristan Blackmon header, set pieces are still an issue but not as glaring this week). Both of them came from one cross: the fateful Adekugbe delivery that Zuparic and Crepeau were unable to corral. 

The Whitecaps were largely kept within their own half during the second half. Aside from the set piece chance, the Adekugbe cross, and one other speculative effort from Pedro Vite, Vancouver were testing Crepeau from Bellingham. In order to solidify the defense, the whole team needs to defend higher up the pitch. “Force the Timbers to make mistakes” is a phrase at the top of every opposition scouting report. It’s beyond past time for the Timbers to start doing it to other teams. Organizing a high press is a MUST for next week.

Now we move onto personnel, because tonight has brought some glaring issues to light. I’m going to start with the most obvious one: Zac McGraw. Tonight was one of his worst performances, and he knows that. It was the right choice to take him off at halftime. The best team defensive performance of 2024 came in Houston, when Kamal Miller and Dario Zuparic started together. Yes, Zuparic and Crepeau combined to create the error that allowed Vancouver to win, but Zuparic has been the better defender so far this season. In order to break a losing streak, changes must be made. Zuparic should start alongside Kamal Miller in Kansas City next weekend. This hurts for me to write because McGraw has been so good over the past two years. Last season he was irreplaceable in the backline. But it’s a new season and a new system, and McGraw hasn’t been playing like he was in 2023. Sometimes, changes need to be made for the greater good.

McGraw is the only player that I think has to be dropped for next week’s game, but several players are coming close. It surprised me that Antony was the player who exited for Felipe Mora tonight. The young Brazilian was growing into the game, and he was one of the few players who was giving it their all in the first half. I thought the change would be for Santiago Moreno, but Phil Neville decided to sub off Antony instead. Moreno has had quite an interesting 2024. Until tonight, he had played every minute of every game and tallied 1g/2a in that playing time. But he’s not at his best in the final third. His decision making continues to lack decisiveness, and this team needs someone who can consistently play the final ball or get on the end of the final ball. Right now, Moreno isn’t doing either. Tonight, he lost 11 duels, the most of any player on the pitch. But on the flip side, Felipe Mora is still getting back to full match fitness, and dropping Moreno would allow Jonathan Rodriguez to move out wide. Dairon Asprilla could also start out wide as well. In order to break a losing streak, some changes might need to be made. I’m not 100% sold on dropping Moreno yet, but it is something to keep an eye on. 

Juan Mosquera matched Vancouver’s intensity for the entire time he was on the field except for that Adekugbe cross. The Whitecaps kept consistently targeting the right side of the Timbers’ backline, and Mosquera was up for it almost every time. I think he is a player that would benefit massively from the high press, so I’m perfectly fine with him remaining in the starting lineup. But if those changes aren’t made, there might need to be a change made soon.

Time is finally starting to catch up to Diego Chara. Gauld was his mark, and the slippery Scot was able to elude the veteran Colombian on Vancouver’s first goal. A high press would help Chara immensely as well. With such a crowded midfield and 4 players who are worthy of starts, some rotation will need to be necessary. Chara looked a lot more comfortable playing as a single pivot while the Timbers pressed high. Once again, the high press would benefit the team as a whole. 

Tonight’s gold star goes to Evander. Tonight, I made my most crucial realization about him: he is a player that needs a positive game state to be a true factor. This isn’t an indictment of his first half. I thought he was matching the intensity and trying to make things happen, but the rest of the team wasn’t on the same page as him mentality-wise. If you want Evander to impact things in the final third, the team has to be playing in the final third. He came alive in the second half, scoring his second blockbuster of the season and assisting Mora with a ball that I’m running out of adjectives to describe. I think Evander hates Vancouver more than any other MLS team. In four matches against the Whitecaps, he has contributed 4 goals and 1 assist. He played well as a 10 and as an 8 tonight. And honestly, it doesn’t matter where he plays. He just needs the team around him to be on the front foot as well. 

Eryk Williamson was Evander’s partner as an 8 when he entered the pitch, and it seemed to balance out the problems that they had last week while benefiting the team as a whole. Williamson was also pretty solid defensively, so maybe a 4-3-3 with Evander and Williamson as twin 8s is a legitimate system to use going forward. If you flash back to last season, Miles Joseph used a 4-3-3 with some high pressing and almost led the Timbers back to the playoffs. Williamson was hurt and Santiago Moreno played alongside Evander instead, but if Williamson was healthy I bet he would’ve been Evander’s partner in the middle. The central midfield situation is still unsolved, but I think Neville solved the Williamson part of the equation.

Cristhian Paredes got the start tonight, and he performed pretty well. He assisted Evander and was strong in the tackle. His big flaw is still ball-progression, but it was the right call to give him the start tonight. I’m more confused about David Ayala. I thought that Ayala would enter for Diego Chara again like he did last week, but no substitution came. Either he wasn’t healthy enough (he was on the bench) or the game state didn’t call for him. It’s a bit confusing following his excellent outing last week. 

It’s been a tough start to the year for Felipe Mora. He unexpectedly got hurt in the final preseason game and didn’t make his season debut until last weekend. But he was back doing what he does best: scoring goals. “I just want to keep adding minutes and scoring goals,” he said in the post-game press conference. It always brings a smile to my face when Felipe Mora finds the net no matter what the score is. Tonight, he was back to his clutch self, being exactly where he needed to be at the right time.

Jonathan Rodriguez wasn’t getting the service he required in the middle, and he was trying hard to get a goal involvement out wide. I understand what Ned Grabavoy was talking about when he used the phrase “DP forward.” Rodriguez is versatile and he can do the two things that the Timbers need the most in attack: finish the final ball and play the final ball. And he can do it out wide or through the middle It’s still going to take some time to fully get on the same page as his teammates, and I’m not worried about his adaptation to the Timbers. But his lasting contribution from tonight is his last action from the game.

It took me this long to get to the blown penalty call. While I was incredibly appreciative of PROReferees returning to MLS pitches this week, they did remind us that no referee will ever be perfect. Ryan Raposo obviously pulled on Rodriguez while he was going for the ball in the box, and Rodriguez went down because of the contact. That is a penalty, clear and simple. The last time the Timbers were awarded a penalty was April 29, 2023 in St. Louis. That’s 11 months of the calendar or 34 full matches without one. It seems ridiculous that the Timbers haven’t been awarded a penalty in that long considering our (still) winless neighbors up north have been awarded three in the 2024 season alone. That call did keep the Timbers from getting a result, but I would argue the first half did more damage than one missed call from a referee. I’m still very angry about the no-call, and even more so because a trophy is at stake.

I’m keeping track of the Cascadia Cup standings this year because it is my duty to do so. I’ll add goals for/against as the season goes on, but it’s unnecessary at this point in time. The Timbers are once again behind the 8-ball in the quest for the most important trophy in the world. There are still 5 matches to be played, but this missed penalty decision could come back to haunt Portland at the end of the season.

That’s one table down, but how about the league table?

After a 3-game unbeaten streak to open the season, the Timbers have now lost 3 in a row. Their goal differential is now back to zero. In order to stay competitive in a tight Western Conference, they need to get a win quickly. Their next test? A trip to Kansas, where they haven’t won since a magical night in November 2018. 

“You don’t start derby games like that,” Phil Neville said in his post-game press conference about the first half-hour of tonight’s match. “For the next 40 minutes, we dominated the game. We were the only team that was looking to score. Then we got back in the game, and then another lapse in concentration cost us. If you score 2 goals away from home you should be getting points. We’ve got to learn really quick.” There were lessons to be learned after DC, and even more after Philadelphia. The message should have stuck by now. Neville wants to see a full 90 minute performance from the Timbers, and the way that they are set up is ensuring that any performance like that won’t happen in the near future. It’s time to look at where they were successful (the second half) and try to get that performance for a full 90. Some tactical shifts may be necessary to do so, and Neville can’t hesitate to put those shifts into motion. It’s been a rough fall from the good start to the season, and we’ve seen this team put in brilliant spells of play in each game. But before any full performance can happen, the Timbers need to win a game. Time to put in all the work they can on the training ground before Kansas City. It’s time to get back in the win column by any means possible.