The Panic Button

The worst performance of the season at the worst possible time.

*Cover photo credit to Sean Meagher/The Oregonian.*

The Portland Timbers entered tonight’s match with a 12-game unbeaten streak at home dating back to May. They also carried an air of invincibility against tonight’s opponents, who had never won a game at Providence Park. Both streaks were broken tonight.

Portland began the game by taking a couple of speculative efforts that couldn’t find the target. However, they kept pushing forward. More on that later. Portland’s defense looked relatively settled, but it relied on several key individual moments of brilliance to keep Austin from scoring. Claudio Bravo, in particular, was very active in both attack and defense. Portland’s method of attack was rather frustrating. Instead of taking their chances immediately, they tried to overcomplicate things and it led to blocked shots. The turning point occurred in the 42nd minute. After Kamal Miller failed to win a header against Diego Rubio (more on the free-kick from Brad Stuver that led to this header later) it fell to an isolated Osman Bukari on the right wing. After breaking Bravo’s ankles, he lifted a cross into the box that Kamal Miller headed away. It fell to Dani Pereira, who found himself in a lot of space at the top of the box, and took a speculative shot. That shot took a bloodbath of a deflection off of Miller and beat a well-positioned but wrong-footed Maxime Crepeau. 1-0 Austin. The rest of the first half was defined by panic and sloppiness. In order for the Timbers to find the equalizer, they needed to remain calm and composed when the second half began.

Guess what? That didn’t happen! The theme of the second half was utter panic. Austin, having secured the go-ahead goal, dropped into a low block to protect a very important three points. This also led to some general shithousery that didn’t get punished to the full extent of the law. For example, in the 56th minute, Jader Obrian committed a hard foul on Dario Zuparic. An Austin player carried the ball away (that’s a yellow for time-wasting that didn’t get shown) and Santiago Moreno went to go get it back. A minor scuffle broke out, and order was quickly restored with no penalties for either side. Right after play resumed, Sebastian Driussi laid a cheap-shot challenge on Diego Chara but didn’t see a yellow card. No sense of control could be expected from the referee after that sequence of events. The Timbers kept trying to push forward and find the equalizer, but they were attacking without any semblance of composure. Their best chance came in the 66th minute, when Evander found Jonathan Rodriguez with a through ball running into the box. It turned into a 1v1 chance with Brad Stuver, but the elite goalkeeper closed down the angle and forced a corner kick. Juan Mosquera also found himself in a 5v1 in the 74th minute but he waited too long to make the pass to Jonathan Rodriguez. The Uruguayan’s shot was saved and the Timbers had two more half-chances during the sequence but it ended with Rodriguez being offside. Portland amped up the pressure by committing everyone except both center backs forward but nothing came out of it. Austin had a couple of late chances that were stopped by Zuparic and Miller’s sheer force of will. Finally, at the dying moments of the game, Stuver was shown a yellow card for time-wasting. The final whistle blew, and the Timbers failed to capitalize on a golden opportunity after a dominant (according to the box score) performance. For the first time in 2024, the Timbers were shut out at home. 

Quick Referee Note (Not the Main Takeaway By Any Means But It Needs To Be Said)

Referee Alexis Da Silva had very little control over tonight’s match and often awarded fouls seemingly at random. The free-kick that led to Austin’s goal occurred because Brad Stuver came off his line and made a legal clearance outside of the box. Maxime Crepeau made a similar (kind of, in spirit) clearance earlier in today’s game. But somehow, Da Silva called a foul on Felipe Mora (who was just in the vicinity of Stuver’s clearance and did nothing illegal) and a Timbers throw-in deep in Austin’s half turned into an Austin free-kick. Ridiculous. Driussi seeing no punishment for an obvious cheap shot on Chara is even more egregious. Oddly enough, I have a lot of praise for the linesmen. Delayed offsides is one of my biggest pet peeves, and they were on top of every offside call tonight. 

Another Tale of Two Halves

Tonight’s tale of two halves isn’t about a good half and a bad half like normal (I hate that the tale of two halves is normal). It was about two halves that showed the Timbers’ attack at their worst in completely different ways. The first half was about overcomplication. Portland had chances, but chose to make things needlessly complicated. A couple of extra touches and extra passes turned potential goals into blocked shots. The Timbers took 11 shots in the first half and only 2 of them were on target. Both shots on target came in the latter moments of the half and were both shots from outside the box. 7 shots were inside the box. 6 shots got blocked. The Timbers were able to get inside the box and get into good spots, but their insistence on trying to find the “perfect shot” instead of just SHOOTING was a reminder of what this team looked like last year. With so much talent in the attack, they acted too scared to try anything chaotic. Against a team that was trying to defend for their lives, an element of chaos can lead to goals. And based on the way that the Timbers’ confidence tends to flow after they score the first goal, it is reasonable to expect the floodgates to open after such an event. That didn’t happen because the Timbers simply weren’t the version of themselves that has become their 2024 calling card: ruthlessly clinical, especially at home. 

Prior to tonight’s game, the Timbers had the 4th-highest expected goals overperformance in MLS history. The record is currently held by 2024 Inter Miami, who extended it after scoring 3 goals from 1.19 xG against Columbus today. That speaks to the talent in Portland’s attack but also how clinical they have been when presented with chances. Sure, the Timbers have missed their fair share of big chances but they have made up for it with elite finishing. Tonight, they didn’t put themselves in the right positions to be clinical. They complicated it for themselves, and the attack wasn’t able to click.

In the second half, panic and desperation began to set in. The Timbers started putting more of their shots on target but were still unable to find the equalizer. They began throwing numbers forward, which left them vulnerable on the counter. Way too many needless turnovers occurred in the middle third of the field, which has been a theme for this team throughout the season. The attack continued to look disjointed and the Timbers failed to tie the game.

While the Timbers showcased two different ways for their attack to fail, one odd theme was present in both halves: an odd emphasis on quick restarts. Taking a deep free-kick quickly isn’t too out of the ordinary, but their willingness to take corner kicks with alarming speed led absolutely nowhere. “We were forcing things; we were rushing things,” Phil Neville said post-game. The corner-kicks were the biggest example of that. Although they didn’t have the height advantage, Portland’s quick corners often left them at a disadvantage due to poor positioning from their own players. The players were so desperate to score a goal that they did everything in their power not to score one. Only the Timbers, y’all.

Player Ratings

Maxime Crepeau: 6.5

Crepeau didn’t make any saves today because the only shot on target took a terrible deflection and left him wrong-footed. However, he continued to show his ability to command the box. This includes the area outside of the box, but he does leave the goal wildly exposed whenever he plays sweeper. Does he truly trust his own defenders? I feel like it’s a valid question at this point.

Juan Mosquera: 7

The Colombian’s defensive work was good and he drew 4 fouls. However, he needed to be better in the attack and simply wasn’t. Towards the end of the game, he wasn’t putting in maximum effort to get back on defense. I’m going to chalk that up to fatigue because he has played the most minutes on the team this season and he played the entire Vancouver game. 

Dario Zuparic: 8

A good bounce-back game for Zuparic after an outing against Vancouver that was below his standard. Austin could have increased their lead towards the end of the game if it wasn’t for Zuparic’s relentless urge to get back and protect his own box. 

Kamal Miller: 5

Tonight was probably Miller’s worst game of his Timbers tenure. He filled up the stat sheet on the defensive side of the ball but didn’t win any of his aerial duels. This is coupled with more mistakes on the ball. Poor passes really did him in today. His partnership with Zuparic is the best one on the team, but maybe it’s time for a re-evaluation after a performance like tonight and two games remaining in the season.

Claudio Bravo: 9

Every once in a while, Bravo goes supernova and becomes the best player on the pitch. That was certainly true tonight, even if his attacking output wasn’t great. He routinely made excellent challenges, won the ball, and turned it into instant offense. He’s still working his way back to full match fitness and got subbed out after 78 minutes. Man of the Match, and it isn’t close.

Antony: 7

He was replaced by Antony in a move that I found a little odd at the time. Not because Antony came into the game, but that he subbed on at left back. Neville has done this before, most notably in the Minnesota game where the Timbers were chasing a goal. The Brazilian took care of his attacking duties, proved to be a spark off the bench, and tracked back on defense. Good shift from him.

Santiago Moreno: 5.5

After tonight’s game, Phil Neville said the following about the team’s attack: “I think they’ve got a lot of credit in the bank, those front four. I think they’re allowed a night where it just doesn’t happen.”

I don’t fully agree with Neville’s reasoning here, but I see where he’s coming from. To me, at least, the Tree Amigos do have credit in the bank but they still needed to score tonight. However, in my opinion, Santiago Moreno doesn’t have any credit in the bank. That may be harsh considering the Colombian has 6g/9a this year. But there are games when Moreno can be the most infuriating player on the pitch. The stat sheet loves Santi. But I watched this game with my own two eyes and it was abundantly clear by the 70th minute that Moreno was more of a liability than an asset. Is it his fault? Well, yes and no. It isn’t his fault because he played the entirety of the Vancouver game and obviously got more fatigued as the game went on. But it also is his fault because he continues to struggle with decision-making around the box and turned the ball over constantly. He was the player that Antony needed to replace, not Bravo.

David Ayala: 7

Prior to tonight’s game, Neville said that Ayala was “doubtful.” When the injury report came out, Ayala was listed as “questionable.” What did that mean? Well, it obviously meant playing 90 minutes and doing his best to will the team forward. He was willing to switch the ball to wide areas and showed his usual doggedness on the ball. Not bad for a player who wasn’t expected to play.

Diego Chara: 8

Unfortunately, the club captain got substituted in the 70th minute in the middle of another great performance. Keeping his legs fresh is the top priority and the Timbers should have been able to get a result after he came off the pitch. 

Evander: 7.5

Sigh. His streak of 11 consecutive matches with a goal involvement came to an end today. I don’t think that he was necessarily off, just trying to force things a little too much. He should’ve had an assist in the 66th minute after putting Rodriguez through on goal, but it just wasn’t meant to be. He led the team with 5 chances created. Even during an off-night (and not really that much of an off-night) he was still wildly effective.

Jonathan Rodriguez: 6.5

The Uruguayan put 4 of his 6 shots on target, but missed the biggest chance of the night. I do have some sympathy for him. It must be incredibly frustrating to keep calling for the ball in good spots only for it not to get passed to you. No overarching worries here. He does have some of the “credit in the bank” that Neville spoke about post-game.

Felipe Mora: 6

Mora was at his most active in the first half, but was the shining example of the Timbers’ overcomplication. He took 5 shots with 4 of them coming in or around the six-yard box. All 4 of them were blocked. If he hadn’t taken an extra touch on at least 1 of them, the Timbers would have opened the scoring. 

Final Whistle

Some might look at tonight’s performance and immediately run to the panic button. While I’m incredibly disappointed with the performance and the result, I feel like this team needed to be on the wrong end of a match like this to build character. Think about it. Outside of the Philadelphia game (back in March) the Timbers are usually able to get on the right side of games like this under Neville’s leadership. Even though the attack was disjointed, it took a masterful performance from one of the league’s best goalkeepers to keep them off the scoresheet. That desperation somehow led them to take fewer risks. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that in a Timbers game this year. They were the only ones pressing the panic button tonight. And boy, did it cost them.

Now the full extent of the damage can be realized. Every result (except Minnesota’s draw in Salt Lake City) went their way tonight. Seattle beat Vancouver (and kept Portland’s Cascadia Cup hopes alive) but jumped into 3rd place. Portland is mathematically eliminated from getting a top-4 finish in the West after tonight’s result. They are now 5 points back of 6th-place Colorado, who got spanked by the Galaxy at home. Houston’s win against New England was expected, but it wasn’t a done deal until the final whistle. Minnesota’s draw is a real kick in the teeth. Now the Timbers are one point behind the Loons, and Minnesota holds the tiebreaker (wins). Vancouver still has a game in hand, and the Timbers need to escape 9th place by any means necessary. Ideally, they need to finish in 7th. Here’s what that would look like, because scenarios are now incredibly important (this is what happens when you DROP POINTS AT HOME).

Vancouver hosts Minnesota on Saturday. The best possible result for Portland is a draw. The Whitecaps would have 48 points, and Minnesota would have 47. The Timbers have to beat Dallas on Sunday no matter what. If you thought the Timbers s***ting the bed tonight was bad, Dallas lost 3-2 in San Jose tonight to a heavily rotated Quakes team. They are now eliminated from the playoffs, but they will be motivated because interim head coach Peter Luccin is making his case for the permanent job. If Portland wins, they will be in 7th place on 48 points with a superior goal differential (both Portland and Vancouver would have 13 wins). However, Vancouver’s pesky game in hand will take place during the international break. It will be a home game against LAFC. In order for Portland to hold on to 7th place for Decision Day, the Whitecaps need to lose to the Black-and-Gold. 5th-place Houston (6 points ahead) and 6th-place Colorado (5 points ahead) have difficult matchups at St. Louis and at home against Seattle, respectively. There is still chaos that can happen, but the Timbers’ control on it is significantly weakened by tonight’s loss.

This has also put Austin back in contention for a playoff place (they need the Timbers to completely collapse in order to leapfrog them: 2 losses and a goal differential swing of -18). So while they aren’t mathematically eliminated, it’s still a longshot. Because of this, the Portland Timbers are now Schrodinger’s playoff team. Because it’s so unlikely for Austin to reverse a goal differential of -18 in two games, the Timbers are effectively a playoff team. But since a scenario still exists (however unlikely) for them to miss the playoffs, they haven’t clinched yet. They’re in playoff purgatory for the rest of the week. Only this team, man. 

If the Timbers had taken care of business tonight as expected, they would be sitting in 7th place right now. Every result went their way and they need to avoid the Wild Card game at all costs. But right now, the Timbers are showing the rest of the league that they are the ultimate wild card. Technically, they’ve been a wild card all season. Their destiny was in their hands and they dropped it. Any result against Dallas guarantees them a playoff berth, but the time for getting any result is over. Wins matter. And the Timbers have started a 3-game winless run during the most important part of the season. It can never be easy.