The Line in the Sand

Reason will prevail.

*Cover photo credit to Ruben Dominguez/Portland Timbers.*

I’m getting tired of hearing about this. And, somehow, the player in question is tired of hearing about it too.

Yeah? It’s annoying that you have to keep bringing it up all the time? Dear God!

The absence of logic and reason regarding the Evander situation (I can’t use Evander Saga, Stumptown already trademarked it) is truly one of the more baffling things I have seen since players reported to preseason. Initially, a wave of resignation passed over the fanbase when the player in question was photographed in Brazil after preseason began. This was the worst-case scenario because it looked like he wasn’t reporting on purpose. Given the turbulent offseason, it wasn’t beyond belief for everyone to assume the worst. Hell, I certainly did. Last Thursday, the Timbers held their first open media session of the year. Evander was the main topic of conversation, and it quickly became apparent that his absence was excused due to visa issues. He is not the only player affected by it. Antony has also been stuck in Brazil with the same problem. Nothing can be said on the matter until those issues are resolved and he is eligible to return to the country. I expect him to be back with the team as soon as possible. Why is that my expectation? Well, he said it himself.

If he is intent on keeping his word, he will be back. Whether or not he keeps his word is a completely separate conversation that doesn’t need to occur right now. This is not why everyone is losing their minds.

A New Frontier

Back on Tuesday, MLS instituted a new rule change. Many people have been begging for the league to join the rest of the world by allowing player sales within the league. Guess what? That’s a reality now! However, something needs to be answered first: when you’ve got the cash, and you want to splash, well you gotta go and find out the rules!

Finally. Because there is no promotion/relegation in MLS (do NOT ask me to open that can of worms right now) each club has cash to burn. Given the intricacies of roster rules, spending is usually limited to high-leverage spots (DPs, U22s and TAM players). Allocation money can only buy you so much (like Paul Arriola, twice!). Immediately after the rule change was announced, two names became the center of conversation: Evander and Cincinnati’s Luciano Acosta.

Acosta and Evander’s situations are similar, but there is one big difference. The former MLS MVP hasn’t reported to preseason, but his absence is unexcused, unlike Evander’s. Both players pine for a return to South America, but minimal interest has arrived from the continent. However, both players would have a serious market in MLS. I don’t blame national media members for driving the narrative that teams are interested in cash deals for them. This is a brand-new rule, and it’s fascinating to wonder about the first cash transfer. Especially if there is actual interest from other MLS teams, which has been reported. However, multiple things need to be taken into account with this new rule: what an acceptable bid would be and Evander’s interest in making such a move.

The Range of Acceptability

I have already stated my thoughts on what an acceptable price for Evander would be. However, with this new rule, an update is desperately needed. If an international club comes calling for Evander, I think $10M is the floor. Previously, the floor was $15M. But due to Evander’s own overestimation of interest, the Timbers can lower the international price a bit. As of publishing, no foreign bid has topped that number.

And an international departure would be much better than the alternative: a sale to a MLS club. Before I can talk about that, the player’s own needs must be considered.

The Path to Glory

Evander has said a lot of things since arriving in Portland. But his main desire, as stated through his numerous podcast interviews in the offseason, has been the ability to break into the Brazilian national team setup. This is not an unrealistic goal, and it’s one that should be encouraged. However, it is nearly impossible to earn a call-up from MLS. His chances would be much improved if he played in Europe, but it would also be significant if he played in Brazil.

Back in October, Brazilian President Lula da Silva went on the radio. In his interview, he stated that the Brazilian soccer federation should give higher priority to domestic players. It would probably be more beneficial for Evander to return to Brazil in hopes of earning his desired Brazil cap.

The NWSL has a special clause for player trades where the player has to agree to the trade for it to happen. That clause does not exist in MLS. Since cash sales are considered “trades,” the Timbers could accept any offer that comes their way. I doubt that Evander is particularly keen to remain in the states while he pursues a Brazil cap. But, if the right offer comes, the Timbers will probably accept. So what would an acceptable offer be?

The Domestic Range of Acceptability

Dallas has already been lurking. Boca Juniors is very interested in bringing Alan Velasco back to Argentina, and they would require a new DP to replace him. Per Kristian Dyer, Los Toreros have bid $12 million for Evander. That is nowhere near an acceptable amount, especially for a conference rival.

Each conference should have a different price tag. Since Evander’s presence in the East would be less detrimental to Portland’s playoff hopes, $15 million becomes the floor for non-conference bids. Taking salary into account, the Timbers have paid about $14.7 million for Evander. This doesn’t count any expenses for family or agents (spoiler alert: they’re the same thing!). So a $15 million sale would either cause the Timbers to make a slight profit or break even depending on how accurate my estimate is. That’s perfectly fine and the sale would be at his current market value. Ideally, he goes to a Brazilian club, but the Timbers should be looking to accept a good offer for him no matter who is making the bid. $15 million is definitely worthy of acceptance, especially from an Eastern Conference club.

However, that number is completely unacceptable for a Western Conference team. Because the Timbers are directly in competition with other West clubs, the number would need to be raised. $20 million is a lot of money. But Evander’s past production makes that reasonable. Tacking on another $5 million as a “rival tax” is the proper way to go. Personally, I think that the Timbers should add on $10 million in rival tax, but you have to be realistic about this situation. It would be upsetting to see Evander suit up for another Western Conference team, but his happiness wouldn’t be guaranteed and $20 million is plenty of money to find a replacement.

The Reality Check

Ned Grabavoy has left the door open. In his first press conference of the season, he said that the relationship between both parties can still be repaired. Ideally, this is the best-case scenario. But I doubt that both of them can ever see eye-to-eye again. Whose fault is that? Honestly, both of them. A relationship doesn’t become this strained and fractured without both parties doing damage to it.

For the record, the Timbers have shown that they are willing to keep their star player happy off the field. They repaid the difference in his taxes after his representation did a poor job of researching the realities of playing professional sports in Portland (Oregon has the highest income tax rate in the country, which puts the Timbers and the Blazers at a serious disadvantage when trying to lure players). However, a lack of investment in the squad last summer left the Timbers battered and bruised as they entered the final stretch of the season. Just one more attacking piece could have lightened the load on an exhausted offense.

On Evander’s side, his desire to eventually return to Brazil has been apparent since he arrived in Portland. The front office knew of these concerns, but a four-year contract was agreeable for Evander’s representation and the player himself. But after a contract extension with a significant pay raise was declined (due to a disagreement over a release clause which I’ve already gone into detail about) the desire to go home became overwhelming. Following his tweetstorm, his offseason has been filled with various podcast interviews where he acknowledged his current situation while nudging various Brazilian clubs to come and get him. None of them did. As the calendar turned from month to month, any leverage he had began to disappear. What does that mean for the immediate future?

The visa issues haven’t been settled. The can has been kicked down the road. Until Evander is eligible to return to Portland, the Timbers will keep fielding offers from MLS teams until an acceptable one arrives.

Ned Grabavoy’s performance as Timbers GM has been divisive. Many people are putting all of the blame for the Evander situation completely at his feet. That’s beyond irrational. However, one thing that can’t be doubted is his performance in the transfer market. Since taking over the top job, he has signed 2 DPs and 2 U22 Initiative players. The lack of outgoing players is still an issue, but the transfer window is still open. I’m a huge fan of Eryk Williamson, and he deserves every opportunity to earn more playing time in Charlotte. Could the Timbers have gotten more in return for a fan favorite? Probably, but I don’t think a better offer arrived in the current window.

Grabavoy’s job is to build the roster, and Phil Neville’s job is to form the roster into a good team. Their ideas seem to be aligned during this transfer window, as both of them raved about the two high-profile additions to the team on Thursday (more on those players coming this week).

Portland’s scouting department has not been idle. There are definitely potential Evander replacements already on their radar. However, the MLS calendar is doing them no favors. In order to acquire a proper replacement, it will probably have to be done in January. That means the heat is on to either repair the relationship, accept a REASONABLE bid, or kick the can down the road into the summer. The Timbers have already drawn their line in the sand: if a reasonable bid doesn’t come in, Evander will remain a Timber whether he likes it or not.

Doing the best thing for the club should always be the top priority for the front office. Since Evander’s post-Vancouver tweetstorm, the idea of “best for the club” has shifted numerous times as the offseason progressed. But the crux of the issue is just around the corner. My advice: be logical, be realistic, and be reasonable. Demanding that Evander is sold as soon as possible at any price is beyond silly, and immediately grabbing pitchforks because he gets sold to a Western Conference team is also ridiculous. Getting mad at the Timbers for receiving Evander offers is also illogical. If you weren’t a Timbers fan, you’d be BEGGING your front office to try and acquire Evander. People won’t be happy regardless of the outcome. That’s just the reality of the situation. The Timbers are not going to accept a lowball offer for their most valuable asset. Evander has also accepted the reality of the situation.

All quotes used in this article were from an interview back in November. Circumstances may have changed since then, but there’s no denying the fact: the ball is firmly in Evander’s court. When he first arrived in Portland, you could often find him on Twitch. He’s a big NBA fan, and he’d often stream himself playing 2K. So what will happen when his visa is approved? Will he stay in Brazil? Will he sow dissent like Jimmy Butler? Will he don a fat suit like James Harden? Or will he return to the team and try to repair his relationship with the front office and his teammates? It’s completely up to him now. Only he knows the path that he will take. Whatever will be, will be.