The 2025 On-Field To-Do List
A season preview of sorts.
Author’s Note: Considering that this is Phil Neville’s second season in charge, I think that a different type of season preview is in order. Rather than a bland overview of the squad, a look at the on-field issues is needed the most.
The 2024 Portland Timbers were electric. Very few teams in MLS would cater to a neutral viewer like last season’s squad. With an attack that could score at will (until they couldn’t), the Timbers defined the term “box office.” But their ceiling was limited by a defense that couldn’t stop the ball from hitting the back of their own net. However, Portland’s defense wasn’t as catastrophic as the raw numbers would indicate. Despite conceding the 10th-most goals in MLS (56), their npxGa ranked 14th (45.2). Middling, but not awful. Charlotte FC was widely considered to have one of the top defenses in MLS last season. But Charlotte’s npxGa was 43.9, almost two full hypothetical goals below the Timbers. Portland’s concessions often followed a few patterns: dead balls, counterattacks, and shots from distance. If the Timbers can solve those weaknesses in 2025, they will win more games. Let’s take a look at those patterns and try to find some solutions.
Problem 1: Set Pieces
The Timbers have struggled to defend set pieces for years. Last season’s tally of 12 set piece goals conceded was tied for the worst mark in the league. However, I want to focus on the set-piece concessions that ended up costing the Timbers points. More specifically, two goals conceded in the final months of the regular season. Let’s begin on September 14th in Colorado.
Portland tied the game after scoring from a corner kick (Evander delivery, Araujo flick-on header, Ayala rising at the back post to head it home). Now, in the 71st minute, they have given away a free kick from the right channel. Before this highlight continues, let’s take note of the Timbers’ setup. They’re holding a high line at the top of the 18-yard box, with tons of space between that line and goalkeeper Maxime Crepeau. Each player is marking a Rapid, with Evander forming a one-man wall. Two players are ahead of the clump marking the zone at the top of the box.
Djordje Mihailovic’s delivery is classified as an “outswinger” due to the ball curving away from the goal. That ball has been identified with a red circle for clarity. It’s heading for Rafael Navarro, who is the lone burgundy jersey in a sea of cream. I count 4 Timbers players in a position to make a play on either the ball or the player. Juan Mosquera is the closest player to Navarro, and is in the best position to challenge for the ball.
Mosquera does not challenge for the ball, instead allowing the Brazilian striker to run right past him without as much as a body block. The header is perfectly rocketed into the far post. Part of Portland’s issues with defending set pieces are feckless efforts to do the basics. That is illustrated here, and it costs Portland a point against a playoff rival.
The Seattle Sounders never stop innovating. However, as I noted in the recap of the Decision Day draw at Lumen, they have hit a creative wall. In 2022, Yeimar Gomez Andrade scored with a header from a set piece and the night ended with the Timbers lifting the Cascadia Cup. The same thing happened in 2024, just at the opposite venue. Yeimar’s goal technically led to dropped points, so I think it’s worth going over in this article.
This screenshot is taken from the moment that Albert Rusnak kicks the ball from the corner flag. First, some housekeeping. This is another outswinging delivery. Yeimar (number 28) is standing alone outside the six yard box. That is due to the Timbers’ zonal marking scheme on corner kicks. Zonal marking, you say?
There are three different ways to defend a corner kick: man-marking, zonal marking, or a combination of both. Based on this play, it looks like the Timbers are using a mixed scheme, with some players like Jackson Ragen requiring a designated defender. However, the eventual goalscorer does not necessitate that kind of attention. That’s rather comical considering his aerial prowess. Zonal marking schemes are predicated on quick, instinctive defenders who can immediately react to any danger. Is the current roster best suited for such a scheme?
I’ve talked at length about Portland’s size disadvantage before. However, the data disagrees with me. Last season, the Timbers had the 6th-highest aerial duel success rate (52.8%) in the league. Really? Can that be correct for a team that has set pieces as their Achilles’ heel? Well, that number is calculated from actual duels, not free headers. Speaking of free headers…..
Credit has to be given where credit is due. This is an outstanding cross from Rusnak and a really good header from Yeimar. However, even though it can be attributed to quality instead of error, the lack of a designated marker for Yeimar directly leads to this goal. So, what’s the solution?
Solution 1: Dedicated Man-Marking Scheme
Given Portland’s good aerial duel numbers, and the addition of a couple new players who are good in the air (Joao Ortiz, Kevin Kelsy and Jimer Fory), the Timbers should switch to a man-marking scheme. However, it wouldn’t hurt to have one defender mark zonally. Either way, this is the easiest fix to Portland’s set-piece struggles. Determined man-marking will lead to clean sheets. Need more proof? When both of these teams met on August 31st, the Sounders had 13 corner kicks and failed to score on any of them. As a matter of fact, they were shutout and the Timbers won a game by the score of 1-0 for the only time in 2024. Set piece defense requires two separate principles: will and strategy. The “will” portion is outlined by Juan Mosquera’s lackluster effort against Colorado. The “strategy” aspect is illustrated by the poor zonal marking in Seattle.
This flaw requires an easy tactical shift to fix. Nothing is fundamentally broken with the Timbers regarding set piece defense. It’s a relatively easy problem to solve. Of course, “relatively easy” still requires a lot of time and effort put in on the training ground. Either way, it looks like a solution to Portland’s set piece defense (at least in theory) has been found.