Swarmed

A bee sting on Thursday, and a whole hornet's nest on Saturday.

The San Jose Earthquakes welcomed the Portland Timbers to PayPal Park 4-1 reason.

Recap

The Earthquakes gave the Timbers a taste of what was to come in the first 15 minutes. Every single Portland turnover was an invitation for San Jose to counterattack. In a span of 9 minutes (from minutes 16-27), the Earthquakes scored 3 goals. I don’t need to describe each one because I’ll be going into full detail on those. Portland was woefully unprepared to deal with San Jose’s lightning-fast counters. They also struggled with another feature of this Earthquakes team that I’ll discuss along with those concessions. But right before halftime, the Timbers got some hope. A long ball from Claudio Bravo turned into a footrace between Antony and rookie center back Max Floriani. The Brazilian laid it off to David Da Costa, who drove into the box and squared it to Felipe Mora. The Chilean ghosted in front of Dave Romney and roofed it into the net with the outside of his boot. Portland entered halftime down 1.05-0.94 on xG, outshot 9-7 (5-2 on target), and down 3-1.

San Jose’s pressure evaporated at the start of the second half as they sat deep to protect their lead. Despite having 60% of the ball and taking 10 shots, the Timbers failed to generate a single “big chance.” In the first half, the Timbers missed 2 of their 3 “big chances.” However, in the 58th minute, an unchallenged cross from Vitor Costa made contact with Finn Surman’s outstretched leg. Unfortunately, that contact from Surman’s leg wasn’t enough to change the path of the ball, and it fell right into Chicho Arango’s lap for the easiest finish of the night. But VAR official Younes Marrakchi noticed something was wrong, and sent referee Fotis Bazakos to the monitor. Upon review, Arango was judged to be in an offside position, and the goal was removed. Back to 3-1. This was the correct call, and the review process that was undertaken to arrive at that conclusion was a shining example of what VAR should be. Quick, efficient, and resulting in the correct outcome. However, it wouldn’t be the only time that VAR would be utilized during this match.

In the 69th minute, Beau Leroux went to ground in the box after a challenge from David Ayala. Bazakos pointed to the penalty spot, and initially I agreed with this. It looked like a trailing leg from Ayala made contact with Leroux. But Marrakchi realized something was wrong and sent Bazakos to the monitor. During the replay stills, several camera angles were used, but none of them could give a DEFINITIVE image of Ayala NOT making contact with Leroux. However, Bazakos saw differently, and decided to overturn the penalty kick.

It’s rare that I would disagree with a call from an official that would benefit the Timbers like this, but I’m a champion of fairness first and foremost. Throughout this season, the Timbers have been on the opposite side of this spectrum. I don’t need to go into it anymore. You’ve already heard enough about it. But two VAR reviews going Portland’s way in a single half while they’re chasing a lead is unprecedented. I can’t think of another match in which this has happened before. While the first call was correct (Arango’s offside goal), the second was a gift. What did the Timbers do with this gift?

Nothing. From the 72nd minute (the minute of the overturned penalty) to the end of the game, the Timbers took 5 shots. Only two came from open play. San Jose’s bunkered defense was perfectly happy with allowing the Timbers to try and break that bunker. Those Quakes felt robbed by both of the VAR rulings, and they wanted their 4th goal. They finally got it in the 88th minute when a Cristian Espinoza diagonal to Arango was forwarded to the far post and tapped in by Ousseni Bouda. That was all she wrote. Tonight’s game is the worst road defeat in the Neville era, unless you count Evander’s Legacy Game (which was technically a road game played in Providence Park).

Three of the Easiest Goals You’ll Ever See And The One That Got Ruled Out

The Portland Timbers did not concede a set-piece goal today. They didn’t concede a shot from outside the box today. But they were ripped apart in transition today. For my unofficial season preview, I looked at three defensive areas that the Timbers needed to improve. Defensive transitions clocked in at number two, behind set pieces. From the opening minute, their ability to defend transitions was suspect. And in the 16th minute, it became a five-alarm fire.

In order for Chicho Arango to receive the ball here, a one-two with Beau Leroux must be played in order to bypass Joao Ortiz. That exact play occurred seconds before this screencap was taken. A back four is visible, but both of the defensive midfielders (Ayala and Ortiz) are occupying the same space. Claudio Bravo has also pinched inside to provide extra support against Cristian Espinoza.

Here’s the next play in the sequence. Arango makes the most obvious diagonal pass to a wide open DeJuan Jones on the right wing. There is no midfielder there to force this ball to be hit in the air or even ignored entirely. Shadows are being chased, and Bravo is the first Timber to have to chase one during this play.

In order to explain my next point, I have to include this screenshot. Espinoza is the player to watch.

Three seconds after Arango hits the ball, Jones has caught up to it. So has Bravo. This is fine. But Espinoza has created a fair amount of space for himself by side-stepping out from in between Portland’s center backs. Neither of them give any indication that they’ve noticed this move. It’s rather slick from Espinoza, and at least one of the center backs should have noticed it. But they haven’t because they’re both watching Jones.

All Jones needs is one touch to lay it off for Espinoza, who now has acres of space and could even take a touch if he wanted to. But he’s a very good player, and he sees an opening at the far post.

That opening is right between Miller and Surman. Crepeau’s positioning lets him down on this play. In theory, one of Surman or Miller should be able to block this shot. Ten minutes earlier, a golden chance for Felipe Mora was snuffed out by a recovering Dave Romney with a timely block inside the box. Espinoza’s shot requires less effort to be nullified, but the play is happening too fast for either of Portland’s center backs to properly react.

This angle from behind the goal provides more clarity. Miller’s momentum is taking him in the opposite direction, Surman is too far away to attempt a normal block, and Crepeau is daring Espinoza to try for the far post based on his positioning. This goal gets a “yikes” rating. Very preventable, but the finish is superb. However, the Timbers presented San Jose with a perfect platform to score this.

Time to look at goal number two. I’m not having fun.

In order for this ball to be on Vitor Costa’s feet at this moment in time, David Ayala needs to make an unnecessary tackle on Ousseni Bouda on the sideline (and thank the Lord that he didn’t get a yellow card for it). Instead of this ball going out for a throw, the Quakes are quickly able to put it back in play. Do you see a gigantic amount of space between both of Portland’s defensive lines? Because I do. So does Espinoza.

Portland’s defensive right side gifted this space to Espinoza, so he decided to be grateful. That pass took out two Timbers defenders (Da Costa and Moreno). Ayala and Mosquera are in the process of recovering. Surman doesn’t need to do anything yet. He can observe and let the play develop. He’s got an eye on everything, in fact.

Espinoza’s pass to Bouda is so smart. He leads him with the ball, indicating that he should turn out of pressure. That’s what Portland’s defense anticipates will be done next.

Bouda does make that touch, but quickly cuts it back outside. This action eliminates two Timber defenders. Just like Costa’s pass four seconds earlier. Now Surman is blocked off by Bouda and Ayala is chasing shadows. A runway has formed because Mosquera doesn’t realize the danger in time.

Thankfully, Norman Y. Mineta International Airport is directly across the street. Air traffic control can safely give Espinoza clearance for takeoff. No Timber defender is even in his hemisphere aside from Surman, but any challenge here would be an immediate penalty. So the baton of responsibility passes to Crepeau. Mosquera didn’t react quickly enough, Miller isn’t fast enough, and Surman would risk a penalty kick. Crepeau has actually positioned himself really well here. Both posts are covered, and there’s no threat of a square pass to create a better chance. Espinoza has to shoot here. So there’s only one choice that Crepeau has to make: which way am I going to dive?

Survey says…….NEITHER DIRECTION! When watching this clip at full speed, you can see Espinoza’s hips widen, indicating a shot to the far post. Crepeau, meanwhile, has juked himself out. He hesitates right and left before just falling on his knees.

I spent freshman year of high school as the backup goalkeeper on junior varsity. I didn’t have a good season (that’s putting it lightly) but it’s time to talk about my worst on-field moment. Oddly enough, I don’t remember the opponent. But I do remember the mud-pit of a field that our team had to play on. The area inside the six-yard box was the worst. I had to cover the area between two goalposts anchored in a giant mud puddle. The game was tied (which was a good thing) and all I had to do was see out the result. I don’t remember where the shot was hit from. But my hands were able to make contact with the ball (a rarity) during a dive. This wasn’t an impressive dive by any means. I probably didn’t need to make it. But I wasn’t very good, and I wanted to be completely sure I kept it out. That ball went off my hands into the mud and began to spin towards the goal line, just out of my reach. I threw every ounce of my body towards the ball as I tried to end the slow spiral of defeat spinning towards my own goal. On a slippery field covered in mud, that’s hard to do. My last effort ended up knocking the ball across the line. We lost, and it was entirely my fault.

As that ball hurtled towards my goal, I made every effort to try and keep it out. I didn’t get a paycheck or had serious pressure to keep my spot on the roster for that season of JUNIOR VARSITY SOCCER. But I knew that I would try everything necessary to secure my team a precious draw. Crepeau didn’t dive for this shot. Even if he guessed wrong (which happens) at least SOME effort would have been present. That’s all I’m going to say about goal number two; a concession so bad it made me think of HIGH SCHOOL. Jesus.

Goal number 3 begins with Arango driving into space with Jones and Bouda as support runners. Portland’s back four look fine aside from Bravo, who is not in line with his compatriots.

Guess what Arango’s pass to Jones is about to do? If you guessed “set up a one-two” you’re absolutely correct! Bravo’s poor positioning forces Miller to defend Jones on the boundary. How do you think that goes?

One nutmeg pass later and Arango is free. Bravo is a few steps behind the ball-carrier and Miller has been removed from the play entirely.

Bravo has caught up to him by now, but trails off his run at the end of the play rather than trying to challenge Arango for the ball. I’ll get to that later. Surman tries to block the shot, but he’s too late. It’s back on Crepeau to keep this ball out of the net.

Crepeau creeps forward off his line to narrow the angle that Arango has to choose from. That’s smart. What isn’t smart is daring him to go near post and then letting the ball in at the near post.

There you have it. Three catastrophes. All preventable, all concessions. It was like the 2024 Timbers, 2023 Timbers, and 2022 Timbers all decided to reunite on the backline for one last ride. Except three players weren’t there for all of those years. Surman only started once last season. Miller was Portland’s second-best center back in 2024. Mosquera didn’t arrive until midway through 2022. Crepeau was the de facto starter last year, yes, but is firmly Portland’s backup in 2025. There is one constant throughout those seasons, and he’s also a backup in 2025 for the first time in his Timbers tenure. But I’ll get to him later. That would require a whole manifesto, and I have the patience to do so tonight. However, tonight’s concessions don’t fall entirely on his shoulders. There are at least three different culprits in every goal that Portland conceded tonight. I’m not going to count San Jose’s fourth goal in this breakdown because the Timbers were playing a lopsided formation with Antony at right back. But Arango’s offside goal deserves attention, even if it didn’t count.

Let’s catch up. The Timbers properly cleared a free kick and began a counter. However, a heavy Santiago Moreno touch led to another turnover. Now San Jose is rushing back the other way. It’s a counter-to-counter scenario. Notice Juan Mosquera. He’s directly underneath the time clock. That’s very far behind the play. Bouda is about to play a through ball. I wonder who he’s passing it to?

I’m shocked. Shocked, I tell you!

Thank you Claudio Bravo, the unofficial linesman. Arango is correctly judged to be offside, but this is way too easy for San Jose. Portland committed too many bodies forward (I get it, you’re trying to score a goal and get back in the game) but allowing another runway down San Jose’s left side is abhorrent.

The Timbers are still woefully vulnerable on counters. Prior to tonight’s game, San Jose led the entire league in expected goals. Defending should have been the top priority. It wasn’t.

Blocked Out

The Timbers outpossessed the Quakes 60-40 in the second half and outshot them 10-6. But their inability to break down a tight block is still a huge weakness. The Timbers rely on the ability of their wide players (and Da Costa) to dribble and open up space. But their lack of off-ball movement stood in stark contrast to San Jose’s fluid front three and wingbacks. Rule number 1 of attacking: do not make yourself easy to defend (it’s probably “score goals” but who cares). This has been a problem with the team for years. Portland’s lone goal tonight was a prime example of what they need to be doing. It’s a shame that a goal of that quality will be buried in a match like this one. Moving around off-the-ball is the only proper way to break apart a defense. San Jose did tonight (with some help from Portland’s defenders) and they ripped Portland to shreds. Dribbling can only get you so far. It’s time for another evolution.

This Timbers team is entirely dependent on scoring first so opponents have the opportunity to chase. In all 3 of their losses in 2025, the Timbers have conceded the first goal. They are usually unable to turn the tide after conceding, and promptly allow another goal or two in quick succession. That has to change. It happened last week in LA and during the season opener against the Whitecaps. Don’t worry, it can be worked on. But it’s a mentality aspect more than tactical.

Player Ratings

Maxime Crepeau: 4.4

How much stock can one put into Crepeau’s second half saves considering all that came before it? It doesn’t surprise me how superior James Pantemis is between the sticks, but the gap between them is shocking. Crepeau was beaten twice at his near post and twice at his far post. Even though I didn’t do a deep dive on San Jose’s fourth, I do have one more screenshot to show you.

Man. I’m going to answer a question from 2024: yes, it is possible for a goalkeeper to be hung out to dry by his defense while also not making the saves that he needed to make. Good grief. I’ve seen him put in excellent performances in playoff games and national team matches, but San Jose in May must be an entirely different animal. Maybe MLS is a better league than the rest of the world believes.

Juan Mosquera: 4.8

If Mosquera is going to be so intent on getting up the field, I expect some actual chance creation to be a part of that positional abandonment. The Colombian posted goose eggs in each of the following statistical categories: dribbles, accurate long balls, and accurate crosses. Sometimes, he stops and takes an extra touch to send in an obvious cross that will either get headed away by a defender or go over the box entirely. I know how good he is, but on nights like this the risk of Mosquera far outweighed the potential reward.

Finn Surman: 6.1

I’m not letting Surman off the hook entirely for tonight’s disaster, but there were some positive aspects of his play to point out. Most notably, his distribution (3 out of 4 completed long balls). But, at the end of the day, defending is priority number one, and he was barely the best out of a clump of mud in Portland’s backline.

Kamal Miller: 5.3

Miller was not up to par with the ball at his feet, and he was more at fault for San Jose’s goals than Surman was. I’m not one to overreact, but he needs to have a good game against SKC next weekend. I think Surman’s starting spot is much safer than Miller’s.

Claudio Bravo: 5.4

Maybe I should just write an entire article on Bravo. Actually, no, tonight’s the right time. Tonight’s game solidified my opinion on him, and not in a good way.

I guess I’d classify myself as a Claudio Bravo defender. However, he is the herald of the Portland Timbers. If Bravo has a good game, the Timbers usually win. If he doesn’t, the Timbers lose AND they lose badly. There are some people who despise Bravo, and have despised him since he became a Timber. This has made him the most polarizing player on the team. In those first two seasons (2021 and 2022) he was one of the most consistent players on the team. His starting spot was guaranteed for the next two seasons (if he was available) due to a complete lack of competition at his position. Bravo played key roles in the two results that defined 2023 and 2024: 5-0 losses at the hands of Houston and Vancouver. In both games, which I’d classify as “big games,” he was a detriment. Even that word is putting it nicely. After Evander’s Legacy Game, left back was one of the top positions of need. Not even to find a new starter, per se. Bravo is still a very good player. But it’s absolutely insane that he had ZERO competition for minutes at his position since arriving in 2021. A new left back provided two options: be a better player than Bravo and claim his starting role or push him for minutes and keep him motivated without getting complacent. Either way, left back (which has been a problem over the past couple of seasons) would be getting a fresh face.

Bravo lost that starting job before the season began. Jimer Fory, simply, strengthens the Timbers in a way that Bravo doesn’t. However, because of match congestion and injuries, it’s worth keeping an experienced MLS player on the roster in case of situations like tonight. Keep in mind, this isn’t the first game that Fory missed this year. Ian Smith started in place of a suspended Fory in Kansas City. The rookie had a rough half and was replaced by Bravo at halftime. Now we arrive back at tonight: match 11 and Claudio Bravo’s first start of 2025. This was a game for Bravo to prove that he was up for the challenge. He could state through his play on the field that he knew Fory was first-choice but he was going to make it so hard for the head coach to leave him out of the starting lineup. And, in Bravo fashion, he faceplanted.

It’s worth noting that Bravo is on a TAM contract this year. So is Fory. The Timbers have two TAM left backs. The Claudio Bravo of 2021/22 isn’t here anymore. He had all the opportunity to prove the doubters wrong after two subpar seasons, but he showed up and was complacent again. Want proof?

In the 68th minute, with Portland down 3-1, another high turnover led to another San Jose counter. As the camera begins to focus on Portland’s box, a player is jogging in from higher up the field. It’s Bravo. I saw those runs against Houston, against Vancouver, and against every team that pantsed the Timbers on the road over the past few seasons. The complacency has gotten out of control. If you want to prove that you can start games, you are running yourself RAGGED to get back and defend. I did not mention Claudio Bravo in my recap of Evander’s Legacy Game (aside from my breakdown of his errors gifting the Whitecaps multiple goals). But Phil Neville probably did. After the game, he mentioned a couple of players who “quit on the team.” One of them is quite obvious; he’s given his name to my personal moniker of that disaster. But at the time, I held a nagging suspicion that Bravo was one of those quitters. I hoped that some competition would be enough to motivate him. Alas, it wasn’t.

Crepeau and Bravo were the two injury replacements on the team with Pantemis and Jimer Fory unavailable. Both of them had a huge opportunity to make a statement with their play that they were ready to contend for a starting job. Both of them miserably failed the test. Bravo’s rating is higher than expected because of the long ball to Antony that set up Portland’s goal. However, it was his only completed long ball (out of 4 attempts). Even the good Bravo stats come with a caveat.

Joao Ortiz: 6.6

If anything, Ortiz was too aggressive, especially positionally. But I thought he had a better game than Ayala. I’d like to see him turn and drive upfield with the ball more. I think it’s something that the Timbers should utilize more, especially because Ayala’s dribbling is almost exclusively used to escape pressure.

David Ayala: 5.9

This is the worst outing I can remember from Ayala since his debut season in 2022. He was routinely reacting instead of anticipating. However, Portland’s defensive mishaps were not entirely his fault. I trust that he will acknowledge the role he had in tonight’s beatdown and work hard to improve.

Santiago Moreno: 6.8

In a stark contrast to his fullback partner, Moreno completed all four of his attempted crosses today. I like seeing the Timbers put his set-piece ability to work more. This included a short corner routine where he dribbled past two defenders only to airmail the cross over the box.

Antony: 7.1

I don’t think any player on this roster has better chemistry with Da Costa. I feel entirely comfortable saying that if he’s healthy, he’s starting.

David Da Costa: 8.3

Quick reminder that the number ratings are all reflective of the game that just occurred and are entirely subjective. Additionally, I do not keep a running total of them. I’m not here to average out a player’s rating over the entire season; I’m here to write about soccer games. If one of y’all wants to do it, be my guest. But I do not condone the results of such an activity and believe that it takes away from the larger point I’m trying to make, which is that every game exists in a vacuum.

Having said that, I think tonight’s game was Da Costa’s best as a Timber. He created 5 chances (including the “big chance” that turned into his assist to Mora) and was a threat every time he got on the ball. I think the best version of this Timbers attack is one with Antony and Jonathan Rodriguez on the wings to give Da Costa the most options for through balls and other line-breaking passes. One other player needs to start in that attack as well.

Felipe Mora: 8.2

Pretty standard performance from Mora, highlighted by his first goal away from home since April 20, 2024 in Columbus. Every game he plays makes me utter some version of “what can’t he do?” 1 goal (a strikers’ finish), some more fouls drawn (opposing center backs love to bully him but he doesn’t let that get him down), and excellent cross-field passes. What a player.

Cristhian Paredes: 6

Paredes’ defensive work was fine, but his passing was suspect. I still see him as more of a 6 than an 8, which means that the Timbers need an actual 8. Put it on the summer shopping list.

Ian Smith: 7.2

The rookie’s statline from today is fascinating because he only put one foot wrong (15/16 accurate passes). Otherwise, he won all 4 of his duels (1 aerial), and completed his lone tackle and dribble attempt. He has to be second on the depth chart behind Fory at left back.

Kevin Kelsy: 5.9

Kevin Kelsy is very young and good decision-making comes with experience. However, I did like the 2-striker look. Just a shame that the team changed into such a strange look to accommodate that.

Omir Fernandez: 6

I would like Fernandez to enter a game when the entire squad isn’t shuffling around and testing out new shapes. Not as impressive as his debut last weekend in LA, but still a solid (if unspectacular) outing. I would like to see more of him, and I think he’ll be starting that Open Cup match.

Ariel Lassiter: 6

Ditto for Lassiter (at least the Open Cup part. The Costa Rican wasn’t on the field for an extended period of time but did not complete his only dribble attempt or any of his two crosses. However, there was effort there.

Table Time

I said that y’all should enjoy the Timbers being in second place. However, 3rd isn’t so bad. But a three-point gap between 3rd and 9th is.

I do not think that the Timbers will win the Shield this year (shocking, I know). But it’s still cool to see them in the top 10 in May.

Final Whistle

Portland’s seven-match unbeaten streak ended with a thud at the San Jose International Airport. While tonight’s result did expose the problems that The Underlying Numbers foretold (somehow, they always know), I think it’s imperative that the Timbers attack those problems head-on this week. Points are still at a premium in MLS, and their table position is far from safe. For the second week in a row, Neville alluded to the players “not following the game plan” in his post-game press conference. I’m putting a sticky note on that thought and returning to it if I need to in the future. Based on what the head coach and Mora spoke about post-game (dealing with cutback balls was a big one) it does seem like the squad and the coach are mostly on the same page. I think Neville has been trying to emphasize the components of a plan during these post-game interviews. On the whole, tonight’s fiasco was a combination of execution and mentality errors. Neville described it as a “kick up the backside” post-game. Unbeaten streaks always end. How the team responds is the most important part. In many ways, next weekend’s game against SKC is more important than tonight’s loss. Tonight, Neville said that the Timbers “lost the game in the first 20 minutes.” Their reaction to tonight’s setback will be evident in the first 20 minutes against the Wizards next Saturday.

But there is another game between now and then. Portland’s Open Cup journey will begin on Tuesday at Starfire against Seattle’s NEXTPRO affiliate. I’ll save most of my thoughts on that game for the upcoming match preview. But as the Supporters’ Shield continues to drift out of focus, Portland’s quest for their first ever Open Cup begins. This is the most important trophy of the season, and they’ve been handed the ultimate banana-peel to start it off. It’s now May. There’s no time to relax. The climb continues.