Sunday Night Stinker

A road win would be nice.

*Cover photo credit to Bill Barrett/ISI Photos.*

In their final Sunday Night Soccer appearance of the season, the Timbers laid an egg in St. Louis. For the 3rd time in a row (the Open Cup loss in San Jose would be four in a row), the Timbers have lost a road game.

Recap

This might seem like a familiar refrain, but the Timbers came out flat against a team that was desperate for a home win. In the 6th minute, a long ball from Joao Klauss (more on that later) found Tomas Totland in acres of space on Portland’s left side. Maxime Crepeau did an excellent job of closing down the angle and making a 1v1 stop on Totland. That was St. Louis’ best opportunity of the first half, but their pressure and urgency would continue until the halftime whistle. But the first half ended with a 1-0 Timbers lead courtesy of David Da Costa. In the 19th minute, Santiago Moreno’s pass found Da Costa in tons of space, and Portuguese Dave drove forward and fired a perfect low curler past Roman Burki at the far post. That’s a beautiful goal, and a striker that screams “DP-quality.” He nearly had a second when a neat pass from Jimer Fory in the 41st minute allowed Da Costa to dribble towards the goal from a tight angle. The resulting shot was spilled by Roman Burki, and the ball trickled across the face of goal. Kevin Kelsy was in close proximity, but failed to react in time. The Timbers left one goal on the board heading into the break, but still held a crucial 1-0 lead at halftime. Entering tonight’s game, the Timbers were 4-0-0 on the road when scoring the first goal.

Spoiler alert! They did not win this game. But they had a serious chance to make it 2-0 (again) in the 47th minute. Some excellent combination play between Da Costa and Moreno allowed Portuguese Dave to break into the box with a 1v1 chance against Burki. Da Costa opted for a chip, which Burki batted down. Chance wasted. St. Louis’ pressure paid off in the 54th minute when Tomas Ostrak’s driving run forward through acres of space resulted in a quick pass to Marcel Hartel, who promptly played it wide to Celio Pompeu. Pompeu’s cross found two players (Hartel and Klauss), but Hartel got there first and chipped it up to himself before volleying it past Crepeau. That goal was coming, but I’ll chalk it up to individual brilliance (another DP-quality play) combined with the Timbers getting punished for another high turnover. Either way, Portland’s potential 3-0 lead didn’t exist, and a 1-1 tie was now on the cards.

Momentum was now completely in the hosts’ favor, and that was before Eduard Lowen made his return in the 66th minute. Not even a minute later, the Raviolis grabbed the lead. Lowen’s first action was a free-kick that forced Crepeau to make an excellent save at his near post, but the ball got recycled. Conrad Wallem had the opportunity to deliver a perfect looping cross to the back post, and Hartel got there in time to head the ball towards goal. An unfortunate deflection off Kelsy exposed Crepeau, who couldn’t keep the ball out. 2-1, St. Louis. What followed was a sluggish Timbers team without any semblance of urgency. No pressure, no intent, just four shots. Yes, that’s correct. The Timbers only took FOUR SHOTS after going down 2-1. Their best chance was a 76th minute Gage Guerra header from a corner kick that flew over the goal.

The Big-Picture Takeaway

There has been plenty of discussion about Neville’s tactics since he took over. I would like to throw that out the window for now and discuss the primary issue with today’s game: mentality. Winning road games in MLS is not easy. The sheer amount of travel undertaken by a team over a season dwarfs every European Big Five league team in a continental competition. In addition, the winter-to-fall schedule forces games to take place during the brutal summer months in the United States. There’s already been a ton of weather-related discourse surrounding the Club World Cup, and that discussion has been a point of contention for anyone who wants to change the MLS schedule. In order to win this league, you have to win games on the road. And most importantly, you have to win games on the road against struggling teams.

Parity makes MLS (in my opinion) the most intriguing soccer league in the world. With every team held to the same parameters in roster building, it forces each team to make the most of their high-value roster slots. There are exceptions to the rule like Miami, the LA clubs, and other big-market teams who can lure a higher quality of player, but on any given matchday any team can beat any other one. Let’s use both of tonight’s teams as an example.

St. Louis was widely regarded to be a playoff team during the preseason. A strong summer transfer window in 2024 injected a ton of new talent into a team that regressed to the mean after a massive overperformance in 2023. But the injuries struck and a bad head coaching hire saw them spiral down the table during the first half of 2025. In particular, the absence of Eduard Lowen (not a DP anymore but their best field player) left them rudderless. Lowen made his return tonight, and the Raviolis are now 4-2-1 when he plays in 2025. All four of their wins are directly correlated to Lowen being on the field. He’s a floor-raiser of the highest order in this league. The Timbers needed to do the majority of their damage tonight when he was off the pitch. They didn’t, and got punished for it.

I’ll save the Timbers portion of that “parity” discussion for the end of this article. The overarching problem with this team is their consistent tendency to play up or down to the level of their opponent. Last year, the Timbers beat the eventual cup-winners at home and gave them a pretty good fight on the road. But over the past two road games, the Timbers have lost in embarrassing fashion to the 14th-placed teams in each conference. You can excuse some road results in hindsight, like the 2-0 loss in Nashville against a quality opponent that has clearly established themselves as one of the league’s best teams (despite how bad the Timbers looked in that game).

There are two things that have to be successful for a team to play winning soccer: tactics and mentality. One informs the other, and so on. But mentality is the most important because even the weakest tactical plans can be elevated by a group of players who are always willing to go the extra mile to win a game. Take two deciding moments from this match as an example: Kelsy’s sudden halt on the goal line and Hartel’s winning goal.

If you are on the road, you have to do whatever it takes to score a goal and win a game. Even the slightest bit of hesitation can be costly. That’s what happened with Kelsy, but Hartel’s winner might be more frustrating. Juan Mosquera is in a great position to head the ball away from danger, but Hartel sneaks up on him and beats him to the ball. Both of these plays fall into the category of “ball-watching.” If you haven’t noticed, the Timbers tend to ball-watch a lot more on the road. But in 2025, they’ve been able to maintain control of a road game when they score first. This game was actually following the script of most 2025 Timbers road wins until Burki stopped Da Costa in the 48th minute.

That script reads as follows: weather an early storm (because you once again didn’t begin the match fully awake), find a goal (usually through a counterattack, moment of individual brilliance, or an error by the opposing team) and get to halftime with a one-goal lead. All 3 of Portland’s road wins in 2025 had a one-goal Timbers lead at halftime. Today’s game was no different. The second part of the script? Score a goal within the first 10 minutes of the second half. In Colorado, Antony scored in the 48th. Kansas City featured a Kelsy strike in the 49th. Santiago Moreno scored in the 53rd in Carson. After that second goal is scored, the team is free to sit back and absorb pressure to open up more space for counters. Objectively, that’s a decent formula. But it is very reliant on the Timbers doubling the lead right out of halftime. Da Costa, by all rights, was set to continue that trend before Burki hustled off his line. By failing (I don’t really blame Da Costa for that, but it is a fail nonetheless) to score the second, the Timbers’ mentality collapsed.

Neville, for the record, was not happy with the first half. At least that’s what he communicated during the halftime interview with sideline reporter Michele Giannone. After the game, he talked about how it should have been 3-0 prior to St. Louis’ equalizer. However, that isn’t entirely accurate.

It could’ve been 2-2 at halftime if each team finished their best chances. But as the road team, the impetus on the Timbers to finish their chances is much more important. St. Louis, once again, had no problem creating a lot of danger. Portland continued to fail at being consistently threatening around the box, making every major chance or half-chance that much more crucial.

Portland’s mentality failure expressed itself in two ways: second balls and a lack of urgency in attack. Let’s begin with second balls. St. Louis’ DNA still involves tenacity even if their press isn’t as intense as it used to be. The disparity in ball recoveries wasn’t as large as I initially thought when I checked the stats (51-45 STL) but the Timbers often positioned themselves awkwardly in challenges. They often left the right amount of space for St. Louis players to easily escape the pressure. It’s a weird phenomenon, but a common one as well. Most of all, it’s a failure to do the basics correctly, therefore mentality is the culprit. The lack of urgency in attack is the main mentality issue from this game, as Portland went from being slightly threatening to being entirely non-threatening as the second half progressed. Last year’s team didn’t know that they were beaten until the final whistle sounded. Complacency crept in today, which was illustrated by their complete lack of willingness to take risks after going down a goal. The “horseshoe of death” was on full display, but it was often taking place in the middle third instead of around the box.

Bottomline: Portland’s failure to win lies in their own inability to try and win the game for themselves. There was no major robbery (although Hartel definitely looked offside on St. Louis’ second goal). It’s a serious problem that this team continues to show.

The Hypothesis

Meanwhile, the Timbers lost the field tilt battle again and it held true to the pattern. 55-45 is a pretty decent showing away from home, but once again St. Louis looked more threatening during their ventures into Portland’s defensive third. Let’s update the count with all the games that have occurred since May 28th. By the way, the Timbers have only earned 7 points in these last 5 games. That’s not good enough.

STL (H): S 18-18, FT 75-25

SJ (H): S 13-16, FT 72-28

Toronto (A): S 5-14, FT 52-48

NE (H): S 14-13, FT 54-46

STL (A): S 10-20, FT 45-55

I don’t think the averages need to be calculated anymore because a conclusion can be reached. The initial point of this experiment was to figure out whether or not the Timbers were a better team on the road or at home. Results didn’t need to fall their way, per se, but they did need to look like a better team. I started this experiment on May 11th after the Timbers beat SKC at home. The Portland Timbers haven’t won a road game since.

Many of these issues that lead to their winless stretch of road results boil down to their inability to match the intensity of their opponent and effectively create chances in possession. This is where the tactical fix can come into play. And in this case, tactics also encompass mentality.

Portland needs to figure out their defensive setup. Their Achilles’ heel from last year (set pieces) has been mostly fixed. But they’re stuck between two identities off the ball.

This is how the Timbers set up when St. Louis was playing out from the back. The forward line was set up on the edge of the middle third, while the defensive line high up on the edge of the defensive third. The high line works when the forward line is actively pressing as a unit. But the Timbers’ forward line doesn’t press. In fact, it’s a man-to-man marking system.

This system is easily exploitable by teams who effectively move off the ball. I’d like to use Kamal Miller as an example. Early in this game, it became blatantly obvious that Miller was tasked with man-marking Joao Klauss. Plays like this would follow: Klauss would drop into the right back position, dragging Miller with him, which would open space behind for a long ball to the underlapping Tomas Totland. The Timbers are already very easy to play through to begin with, but this man-marking scheme opens up even more space. Teams have been figuring this out throughout the entire season. Something needs to change. If Neville is so intent on continuing to play a high line, he needs to actually institute some kind of high press.

Watching both teams in a Timbers game try to build out from the back raises a ton of questions, such as “How are the Timbers a playoff team?” Opposition teams are able to move through Portland’s defensive lines with ease, while the Timbers are constantly recycling possession. While the Timbers could improve in their ball progression, the first task at hand has to involve becoming tougher to play against. Whether they’re at home or on the road, it’s too easy for teams to play through and over the Portland Timbers.

Player Ratings

Maxime Crepeau: 8.3

Crepeau was the biggest reason outside of Da Costa that the Timbers had a lead at halftime. Although two St. Louis shots ended up in the back of the net, the Great Wall of Montreal made 7 saves. Portland’s defensive issues are systemic no matter which goalkeeper is in net. That’s a second consecutive quality start from Crepeau after returning from the Gold Cup.

Juan Mosquera: 5.6

This was unquestionably a bad Mosquera game. For starters, he routinely got spun by Celio Pompeu and failed to properly defend the back post on Hartel’s go-ahead goal. In addition, he was particularly feckless going forward.

Dario Zuparic: 6.1

Zuparic also fell victim to Pompeu and didn’t really stand out. His most memorable moment was getting skinned by Pompeu in the 1st minute of first-half stoppage time. That’s not the sign of a good outing.

Finn Surman: 7.2

Not an amazing game from Surman, but he didn’t really put a foot wrong either. He looks a lot more comfortable on the ball since he became a starter earlier in the year. I’d like to see more long passes added to his range. He didn’t attempt a single long pass during this game. I think that’s a missed opportunity.

Kamal Miller: 5.9

Miller’s poor performance resulted in a yellow card, which means that he will be suspended for Wednesday’s game against RSL. That booking was for dissent after Miller disagreed with a foul called on him in the 78th minute. I thought it was a pretty soft foul call, but Miller has to do better by not arguing with the ref about it while on a yellow card warning. I already covered his man-marking issues with Klauss, but I think that’s systemic rather than a fault of the player.

Jimer Fory: 7.3

Neville talked earlier this week about rotation occurring in-game rather than in the starting lineup. Fory was a prime example of that today after being subbed off at halftime through no fault of his own. In those 45 minutes, he linked up really well with Da Costa on the left side. But he was a casualty of the busy week, and I didn’t have a problem with him being substituted so early.

David Ayala: 7.4

Goodness me, can Ayala make a quality tackle. I counted 4 during this game, and the stats back that up. It’s worth noting that he had the best chance following St. Louis’ go-ahead goal with a speculative but well-struck shot that forced a corner kick in the 74th minute. Like Fory, Ayala’s minutes need to be managed this week, so it didn’t surprise me to see him subbed off in the 75th minute.

Joao Ortiz: 6.3

Ortiz’s failure to stop Ostrak’s driving run directly led to St. Louis’ equalizer. Outside of that, he didn’t have a great game. At least he tried a shot from outside the box in the 42nd minute.

Santiago Moreno: 6.8

Taking Moreno off in the 65th minute of a tied game directly contributed to the Timbers’ inability to effectively attack after going down 2-1. With the attacking depth on the team so thin, I wasn’t too enthused with subbing Moreno off so early. The Colombian continued to show his chemistry with Da Costa, and earned an assist on Portuguese Dave’s goal. But it wasn’t a perfect outing for Moreno either, as he continually lost the ball in the middle of the field. However, the positives of Moreno outweigh the negatives, especially in a game like this.

David Da Costa: 8.6

Portuguese Dave took four shots and hit the target with all of them. Scoring the game-winner last week was a confidence booster, and that confidence shone through in today’s game. I’m not going to put a ton of blame on him for missing that chance either. Burki is widely regarded as the best goalkeeper in the league, and that’s a play that the best goalkeeper in the league makes. He did play the full 90, but will enter Wednesday’s game in his best vein of form as a Timber.

Kevin Kelsy: 6.4

Here’s the problem. I don’t believe that Kelsy was an absolute liability today in the run of play. Sure, he didn’t put in the effort on that loose ball, but he did try to link play and be a threat in the box. But there was one moment that should’ve resulted in an instant substitution, and I don’t think it can be ignored.

In the 64th minute, Kelsy tracked down a breakaway Pompeu and fouled him. This play correctly resulted in a yellow card, but Kelsy went over to Pompeu (while on the ground) and taunted him. That kind of nonsense needs to be dealt with an iron fist by the coaching staff. You can reward the hustle to get back and try to stop an attack, but the extra mustard is the type of stuff that cannot be allowed. I was expecting Kelsy to get the hook there and then. He did not. Regardless of his contributions throughout the day (which was objectively better than his outing against the Revolution last weekend) the decision to not sub him off after that play is a really bad look for the coaching staff.

Neville’s post-game comments were filled with praise of the young Venezuelan. Now, I get the urge to boost the confidence of your young players, but a line has to be drawn somewhere. However, there is an element of truth to his remarks. “I thought he was let down by the others around him with a lack of service.” That’s blatantly true, as a matter of fact.

I have a bad feeling that Kelsy is going to become a scapegoat during the second half of the season. Doing that to a 20-year-old, regardless of the transfer fee (which doesn’t f***ing matter because only salary cap hits matter in this league) is despicable. If you have to blame someone, blame the coaching staff for not bringing Felipe Mora into the game. I certainly do, especially after that yellow card. More on that later.

Ian Smith: 8

I didn’t have a problem with Smith replacing Fory at halftime, and I still don’t have a problem with it after the final whistle. If anything, Smith replicated his performance from last weekend except without the benefit of a goal. Another good shift from the draft pick, highlighted by a 100% duel win rate and 97% pass accuracy.

Diego Chara: 8.2

The captain entered the pitch off the bench for the second consecutive game, and put in another quality performance. With enough time to get up to speed, Chara gave the Timbers more control in the midfield. Does he start on Wednesday? Maybe.

Omir Fernandez: 6.5

Fernandez made his 11th Portland appearance of the season, and is still sitting on 0g/0a in a Timbers shirt. Not for a lack of trying, but something just isn’t clicking with him and his teammates yet. I thought his set piece deliveries looked fine, but nothing outstanding.

Cristhian Paredes: 6.7

I thought Paredes brought the proper energy to the game from the bench, like he usually does. Unfortunately, he didn’t impact the game around the box enough. Par for the course.

Gage Guerra: 6.5

This grade comes with a caveat: he was played out of position on the right wing. But aside from a missed header in the 76th minute, he was barely noticeable.

Coach Rating: 3

The biggest question mark from this game revolves around Felipe Mora, who didn’t see the pitch. Neville said after the game that the decision to keep Mora on the bench revolved around his fitness levels for Wednesday’s game. I think it’s a bit of a flimsy excuse given that the Timbers need to do everything they can to keep winning games, no matter how busy the upcoming schedule is. Especially with the potential confidence boost to the squad that would’ve been earned from a win tonight.

I have to keep harping on the fact that this team is still torn between two identities out of possession. Until that gets fixed, this team will have to keep relying on lucky bounces and individual brilliance to win games of soccer. Forget the need to fill the DP spot for a moment. These last two road games have shown the rest of the league (which they probably already knew) that the Portland Timbers are far too easy to beat. They are not frauds due to the talent on the roster, but that talent does need to be elevated by the coaching staff. So far, I haven’t seen that in 2025. Put this game next to the Toronto match as another instance of the Portland Timbers playing down to their opponent’s level. That doesn’t just fall on the players; it’s on the coaches as well.

Table Time

Time for another reality check, but not in the way that you might think. With 13 regular season games left to play, the Timbers have fallen out of the top 4. A win today would have kept them in 4th place, 3 points ahead of Seattle and 2 points behind Vancouver. While we’re discussing hypotheticals, they’d also be in 4th if the Asterisk never happened.

But, at the same time, there is enough quality and talent in this team that allowed them to climb to 4th in the first place. This isn’t the same life-or-death battle that the Timbers are usually facing around this time of the year where every game is a cup final as the team tries to break into the playoff places. Their early-season rise has given way to a summer swoon. It’s no coincidence that this drop in form has come while the squad is down to the bare bones in the attacking positions either.

RSL and Minnesota have identical form charts after this weekend of matches. Every point is still at a premium, and the Timbers are 9 points behind conference-leading San Diego with a potential 6 points up for grabs against Los Ninos and 6 points up for grabs against the Loons. Not to mention 3 points available against Vancouver and another 3 against LAFC in two weeks. The West objectively stinks in 2025. The Timbers did their dirty work early in the season, and will now only play 4 games against teams currently occupying 7th or below in the West for the remainder of the season. The hardest part of their schedule has begun, and this was their most winnable road game (in theory) for the rest of 2025. 2 Texas games in addition to games at numbers 1, 2, 3, and 6. Somehow I’m not too worried about number 4 for obvious reasons.

Final Whistle

While the coaching staff continues to fix the problems on the field, I’m drawn to what can be done off of it. In theory, the Timbers have been able to climb as high as 4th through 20 games while having one hand tied behind their back. I’m talking, of course, about Jonathan Rodriguez. That open DP slot is at the forefront of everyone’s minds. And today’s game added more evidence on how to fill it.

What the Timbers need is a right winger who can create and score. Players like Anders Dreyer don’t grow on trees, but that’s the exact type of profile that this roster needs. I wrote about this during the international break, so check it out if you haven’t already.

As summer rolls on, and more points are won and lost across the league, the Portland Timbers stand in limbo. This team currently occupying 5th place are showing more troublesome signs than positive ones. With an abundance of cap space and an open DP slot, the Timbers need to put their chips in the middle. All of the rhetoric coming from Neville and the front office seems to indicate that they will. OK, now it’s time to do it. The transfer window opens in 10 days.

Portland’s roster (although with numerous incomings and outgoings in recent seasons) continues to show the same traits as previous iterations of the team. Most notably, their complete inability to win road games against inferior opponents. It’s baked into the club’s DNA at this point. Some people argue about the true purpose of watching this soccer team. Is it about entertainment? Is it about sharing your thoughts and feelings about the Timbers with a group of like-minded people? Both of those are valid, but in the end winning is all that matters. And the 2025 Portland Timbers, despite their early-season heroics, are still learning how to win.

This team doesn’t need a perfect tactical gameplan or identity, but it needs better ones. It doesn’t need the most balls-to-the-wall, aggressive, “I’m going to kick your ass”-type mentality, but it needs a better one. These are the improvements that will help the team in the short term by making them harder to beat. Until the DP slot is filled, and Antony returns from injury, that’s the most important task to keep this team swimming in the waters of the top 4. 3 games remain until Leagues Cup begins. Two are at home, and one is on the road. The waters will only get more and more choppy. The climb continues.