St. Louis City-Portland Timbers Preview (7/13)
Sunday Night Soccer in The Lou.
*Cover photo credit to Diego G. Diaz/Prost International.*
For the final time this season, the Portland Timbers will be on Sunday Night Soccer. And for the second time this season, they will face St. Louis on Sunday Night Soccer. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but it’s weird that it's happened twice.
The Ravioli Report
Since David Ayala scored a late winner on June 8th, St. Louis has gone 0-1-3 in their next four games. This includes a 3-3 draw at home against the Galaxy (where a Joao Klauss wondergoal completed his hattrick and canceled out a late Gabriel Pec go-ahead). After stealing that point at the death, the Raviolis lost their next game 4-2 at home to Orlando. Ezequiel Ponce scored the eventual winner in the 66th minute in Houston 3 days later. Last weekend, the Raviolis traveled to Salt Lake City and conceded a banger to Noel Caliskan 6 minutes in. They fought back twice to cut the deficit to one, but failed to leave the Beehive State with a point. Entering tomorrow’s game, they have 3 straight losses.
If there’s one silver lining to St. Louis’ continued tailspin since Olof Mellberg was fired, it’s been the re-emergence of Joao Klauss. He has scored 5 goals in the last 4 games, but three of them came in the 3-3 draw against the Galaxy. Just one player finding goalscoring form could be a massive boost for the Raviolis, given that their 21 total goals are 2nd-fewest in the Western Conference (4th-fewest in the league). It’s also worth noting that their injury report has continued to be lengthy week-after-week.
Eduard Lowen hasn’t seen the field since their last win (2-1 at home against San Jose, one week before they traveled to Portland). Their latest long-term casualty is Rasmus Alm, who has been placed on the season-ending injury list with a variety of maladies. The Swede only made one first-team appearance for the Raviolis this year. Henry Kessler, their best center back, hasn’t played since that June 8th game in Portland.
As St. Louis (3-6-12, 15 points, 14W/28S) continue to sink down the table and playoff contention becomes more and more unlikely, serious questions will be asked about Lutz Pfannestiel. Not only was last season’s decision to dismiss Bradley Carnell very odd, his second head-coaching hire didn’t even last until the summer. Is the ownership group going to give him a third opportunity to appoint a new head coach?
STL Injury Report & Projected Starting XI
The biggest news involves Lowen, who is available for selection tomorrow. However, STL’s top 3 center backs are all injured, alongside two holding midfielders (Durkin and Morales).
The Raviolis are backed into a corner, and they have to play their best available XI. This includes the return of Hiebert to the starting lineup, but his center back partner will be either Yaro (one of the worst players in the league in 2025) or Jake Girdwood-Reich (a tweener between defensive midfield and center back). However, the double pivot of Lowen and Conrad Wallem should be in from the opening kickoff. St. Louis is 3-2-1 when Lowen starts. Klauss is in red-hot form, so he’s undroppable. Although the Raviolis will play in Dallas on short rest, they have to win their home games.
The Timbers Report
In one week, the Portland Timbers will celebrate their all-time XI when Minnesota United comes to town. Four players have already earned their spots: Adam Kwarasey, Clive Charles, Darlington Nagbe, and Jack Jewsbury. Congratulations to all four of them.
But the Timbers (9-6-5, 33 points, 4W/10S) have a very busy week. Before they can honor those All-Time XI members, they must play in St. Louis on Sunday. Three days later, it’s another matchday against RSL at home. Their crucial game against the Loons comes three days after that. When asked about the compressed schedule, this is how Phil Neville responded:
“Focus is on Sunday. I’ve got to say yes, with the extra, you know, with a day less to recover, there’s obviously considerations for rotation, but I always think that at this stage of the season everybody wants to play in every game. I’d say that maybe the rotations are going to come during the game rather than the start of the game.”
PTFC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI
No surprises on the injury report. Lassiter trained in full on Friday but has been ruled out for tomorrow. Neville said that McGraw should resume full training next week. Kamal Miller is on a yellow card warning, and will need to avoid a booking in his next four games to qualify for the Good Behavior Initiative.
Let’s go from the top down. Kelsy is Portland’s road striker, and this is a perfect opportunity for him to find his goalscoring form again. Da Costa and Moreno should reprise their roles as dual 10s. Here’s where things get interesting. Ortiz, Ayala, and Mosquera are easy selections, but the left wingback role could be up for grabs. With a long week ahead, Neville could opt to start Fory at LCB and keep Smith at LWB. Miller’s yellow card warning could play a part in team selection. This lineup qualifies as one that I would like to see, and there’s a decent probability that this is what Neville chooses.
Tactical Preview
The First Goal
It’s time for some statistical analysis as the Timbers search for their first road win since April 27th. During Portland’s 3 road wins in 2025, they scored the first goal. In fact, if you count the Open Cup victory at Starfire, the Timbers are 4-0-0 on the road if they score first. If they concede first, their record is 0-0-4. Both of their road draws ended 0-0. I think the correlation is pretty blatant. Scoring first and weathering the early storm from the hosts is paramount.
Set Pieces
Six of St. Louis’ 21 goals have come from set pieces. That’s 29% of all their goals. Portland’s set piece defense has been a major story of this season, and they’ve largely kept their cool during these situations. But their last road game in Toronto was a regression to 2024 in terms of set piece defense. In these tight road games against desperate opponents, the Timbers will need to win in every phase. Dead balls will be one of the most important ones.
Midfield Battle
The Timbers were able to dominate the midfield last weekend against New England, but there’s reason to suspect that it won’t be so easy in St. Louis. A big key to Portland’s midfield excellence against the Revs was another quality outing from Joao Ortiz. I caught up with Portland’s Ecuadorian midfielder on Tuesday. First, I asked him about his role as the tempo dictator on Saturday. “We work on these things with the team during training. During the game, we have to increase and decrease the intensity. For example, we keep the pressure up, that means we’re intense.” Another aspect of Ortiz’s game that was on display against New England was his ability to affect play around the box. “We’ve actually talked with the coach about this. He wants me to get into the box more. One of the instructions I’ve received is that when we attack one of the two midfielders has to be in the area as well just to support with the offensive push.”
Should Ortiz be the box-crasher instead of Ayala? Personally, I’ve enjoyed watching the Ayala-Ortiz midfield grow over the past couple of games. Either way, it’s encouraging that one of them has been tasked with impacting the game in the final third.
St. Louis’ pressing DNA was utterly nerfed by Mellberg, but Critchley has tried to bring it back (with mixed results). It’s safe to say that the Timbers will not have the same space that they did against New England. They tend to struggle against teams that employ a high press. Here’s what Neville had to say when I asked him about St. Louis’ press on Friday:
“I think they’ve gone back to what made St. Louis a major threat in the West….even though the results haven’t gone as well as he (Critchley) would’ve liked I think his style of play is really good and they’re intense. They score goals in every single game….What we’ve said to the team is this is a team that scores goals and we’ve got to be at our absolute best or we’ll get embarrassed or we’ll lose the game and we cannot afford many more losses because the teams below us will be looking at our results and saying ‘How can we get closer to Portland’ and we’ve just got to keep the gap growing bigger and bigger.”
Matchday Info
Announcer Analytics
English: Steve Cangialosi & Danny Higginbotham
Spanish: Alejandro Figueredo & Tony Cherchi
Home radio broadcast from 750 The Game: not available on Apple TV
Broadcast platform: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV
Kickoff time: 4:00 (4:12) PM PST
Referee Report
Ricardo Montero’s 2025 stats: 6 games, 26 fouls/game, 0.17 penalties/game, 4 yellows/game, 0 reds/game
Series History
Historical record: 2-2-2, -1 goal differential
Record at Energizer Park: 1-1-1, -1 goal differential
Current streak: 1 win
Current road streak: 2 winless
Table Time
Portland’s precarious position is no secret. With Seattle and LAFC breathing down their necks, every single game during this upcoming week qualifies as a must-win. Especially tomorrow’s St. Louis trip.
Final Whistle
The stakes for tomorrow’s game are pretty simple: don’t lose. But the Timbers were in this position two weeks ago, when they traveled to face a desperate opponent. They lost that game 3-0, and even that scoreline flattered Portland. “They’re gonna have the similar mentality. Their season in brinkering on either catapulting forward or being over because they’re running out of games to get into the playoffs. They’re at home, they’ve got a really good fanbase, the atmosphere is always good there. They’re going to see this as a vital 3 points for them. I think the big lesson from the Toronto game like we learn every single week [is that] there’s no easy game in this league. You can look at form, you can look at consistencies, you can look at whatever you want to look at but every game you’ve got to be at your absolute best. And if we’re not, we’re not going to get the right result.”
Those are Neville’s words as the Timbers hit the road again to try and find their 4th road win of the season. Since beating the Galaxy on April 27th, the Timbers have had four opportunities to win game number four on the road. Can they do it tomorrow? It will be a major test of the Hypothesis.
Keeping the focus on tomorrow’s game will be incredibly important. Although two home games are on the docket for this week, the Portland Timbers cannot afford to be complacent on the road. That complacency killed them in San Jose and Toronto. If they are dead-set on keeping their spot in the top four, they have to win these types of road games. They did it earlier in the year, and they have to start doing it again. The climb continues.
Curious about Ortiz getting forward. Ayala has been better on both sides of the ball so far but feels more needed defensively. Theoretically, if neither is a pure 6, they could double pivot, with the middle centerback supporting more in midfield. This may be too complex to coordinate at this point, especially if Fory is playing somewhat out of position and Smith’s consistency still being a question. We need to get service to Kelsy too and I don’t know if box crashing would be more about feeding him so he can score directly, getting on top of passes from his hold up play, or chasing rebounds for clean up goals.
Whether we try to pass on the ground through midfield, send balls over the top, or send in crosses from the wings could make a difference. I don’t expect either wingback to make cutback passes to the top of the box and Da Costa and Moreno already tend to get in each other’s way too much, so I hope a box-crashing central midfielder or wingback can find space there if necessary and not just overcrowd that zone. We sometimes make too many short, one-touch passes when there are opportunities to move the ball more quickly with longer through balls. I don’t know if that’s a lack of effort, confidence in accuracy, actual ability, or instruction. I like those little triangles but we gotta shake things up sometimes and be quick and direct.
If Fory starts, we may not worry as much about lack of pace vs their forwards and ball over the top but could worry more about positioning and consequent yellow cards.
We'll know by late next Saturday night, after three matches in seven days, whether the Timbers are legit contenders for a home playoff spot. Staying high in the table has been great, but crunch time begins now. Neville and the players have to find a way to be more consistent, especially on the road. Truly good and deep teams overcome obstacles like injuries, including when confronting strong teams and lesser ones. We'll know soon enough how the Timbers stack up.