Sporting Kansas City-Portland Timbers Preview (4/13)

A Sunday matinee at the home of the Wizards.

In many ways, it’s a very familiar sight. A trip to Children’s Mercy Park in the mid-afternoon during the season’s early months. However, one aspect of tomorrow’s match is completely unprecedented in the history of this fixture.

The SKC Report

Following their 2-1 defeat at Providence Park last May, Sporting Kansas City were completely stuck in the doldrums. The Wizards won only 2 of their first 14 MLS games, and it was about to get worse. They did double their total wins in June, but lost 6 other matches before facing Dallas on July 7th. Peter Vermes’ squad was able to take care of business against Los Toreros in both league play and Open Cup, but were still far below the playoff line. However, with their season spiraling down the toilet, they made it to the final of the US Open Cup. They fought hard against LAFC, but ran out of gas in extra time. From that moment on, any semblance of composure evaporated. With nothing left to play for, SKC lost their final three games of 2024 and ended the season in 13th. Changes needed to be made in the offseason.

Those changes came in the form of the exile of club legends. Well, not really, but it’s fun to think of it that way. Tim Melia and Johnny Russell, in many ways, were Sporting Kansas City. But both of their contracts expired, and both of them left the club. Other mainstays like Andreu Fontas and Remi Walter also departed. But the biggest departure was undoubtedly the sale of Alan Pulido, who returned to Chivas. That opened a DP slot, and it cleared the way for William Agada to finally take the starting striker job. Until it didn’t!

Dejan Joveljic became one of the first players to be sold within the league and he joined SKC for a fee of $4M. With the addition of Mason Toye (famous Oregon Coast visitor Mason Toye, mind you) SKC committed a ton of cap space to the striker position. Vermes, meanwhile, is wholly committed to a one-striker system. Definitely a questionable use of the team’s resources. More forwards besides strikers were also needed, so Vermes and sporting director Mike Burns took a trip to Greece. Manu Garcia and Shapi Suleymanov were both brought to the club from Aris Thessaloniki (Garcia as a DP, and Suleymanov on TAM). Andrew Brody (noted subject of a RSL fan club) was signed from waivers before the season started. Jansen Miller and Jacob Bartlett arrived via the SuperDraft and the academy, respectively. Is this the transformative window that SKC needed in the winter? On paper, it looks like it. Adding two new DPs and another high-priced attacker can fix a lot of woes. But did it fix their woes?

Nope. After finishing 2024 without a win in their final 5 games (including the Open Cup Final), that winless streak stretched into 2025. SKC didn’t win any of their first 8 games (including a CONCACAF Champions’ Cup loss to Inter Miami) and only drew 1 of their first 6 MLS games. This continued poor stretch of form led to the firing of Peter Vermes on March 31st. Longtime assistant Kerry Zavagnin took over and led the Wizards to their first win of the season against rival St. Louis last weekend. However, SKC (1-1-5, 4 points, 14W/26S) is still stuck at the bottom of the table.

Joveljic’s brace against the Raviolis took his season tally to 4 goals, which leads the team. Garcia assisted the Serbian on one of those goals and took the team lead in assists with 2. However, SKC isn’t as bad as their record might suggest. 3 of their 4 attackers are new players, and it’s going to take some time to gel. But their basic attacking stats aren’t terrible. SKC ranks 4th in the league in average possession and leads MLS with 34.1 accurate long balls per game. The problems usually start around the box, where misplaced passes and losses of possession are keeping the Wizards from putting the ball in the net. They’re poor defensively, but not catastrophic. Add in the “new manager bounce” from Zavagnin and SKC might be a dark horse to climb up the standings and re-enter the playoff picture in a crowded Western Conference.

SKC Injury Report and Projected Starting XI

Brody hasn’t played since March 1st. Radoja made a substitute appearance against STL last weekend but I expect him to make the matchday squad.

Jake Davis is the key to this team. He started the majority of games in 2024 at right back, but his move to a more natural central midfield position was crucial to last week’s win. I expect him to start in the midfield again tomorrow. The right back position should be filled by former Oregon State Beaver Khiry Shelton. No changes to the front three from last week. I only think one change will be made: Dany Rosero for SuperDraft pick Jansen Miller at center back. SKC has a defined style, and Zavagnin is still committed to Vermes’ tactical setup. Can the “new manager bounce” carry over for another week?

The Timbers Report

This week’s major news regards Jonathan Rodriguez. After returning from Uruguay with his Green Card, the star forward was also back on the training pitch for the first time this season. Head coach Phil Neville was optimistic on Tuesday about the Uruguayan’s availability: “We expect him to be coming to Kansas with us. That’s the plan.” Well, Portland’s top scorer from 2024 did travel with the team and will be available for selection this weekend. How many minutes will he play? I have no clue. But at least he will be available. That’s a big positive, no matter what.

Rodriguez’s return will be a boost to the attack. But how has their attack been faring in terms of chance creation and finishing? Luckily, American Soccer Analysis’ Jamon Moore has a handy little chart to analyze.

Before the data can be looked at, some basic stats need to be accounted for. The Timbers have taken the 4th-fewest shots in the Western Conference but they have the 4th-highest Goal Conversion Rate (GCR) in this sample. Basically, the Timbers should take more shots. Rodriguez’s return should be able to help with that. They’re matching their xG as well. Portland has a healthy amount of “Great xG” chances, a solid amount of “Good xG” chances, and a normal amount of average and poor xG chances. They’re being proportional. I wish this chart was more exciting, but it backs up the eye test.

PTFC Injury Report and Projected Starting XI

Savor this one, folks. Every player is available for tomorrow’s game. However, each matchday squad can only have 20 players listed. So today’s starting XI will also have a projected bench. However, although no injuries have been reported, Jimer Fory is suspended due to yellow card accumulation. He is the first player to have a yellow card suspension this season in the entire league.

Filling Fory’s spot is the biggest question mark. Will it be Claudio Bravo or Ian Smith? I’m leaning towards Smith for tomorrow’s game. Think about it. It’s a perfect opportunity for the young left back to start on the road against relatively weak opposition. Based on the way Neville has talked about him, I think the University of Denver product gets the nod. Aside from the enforced change at left back, I think the lineup stays the same as it did last weekend in Austin. The same logic for Smith also applies to Joao Ortiz, who should probably get another start alongside David Ayala.

Projected bench: Maxime Crepeau, Eric Miller, Dario Zuparic, Claudio Bravo, Diego Chara, Cristhian Paredes, Jonathan Rodriguez, Ariel Lassiter, Kevin Kelsy

The two odd men out are Zac McGraw and Miguel Araujo. McGraw played for T2 last weekend and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him suit up for the second team again tomorrow against Rapids 2 (1 PM kickoff at Providence Park, tickets are free). Per Adam Susman, Araujo and the club are working towards a mutual exit. It makes sense that he would miss out on this road game given his status as “surplus to requirements.”

Tactical Preview

Keeping Shape

SKC will test Portland’s defensive shape with their propensity to hit long balls. Specifically cross-field passes. The Wizards lead the league in switches and have completed the second-most crosses league-wide. These types of passes are employed to switch the point of attack and open space at the back post. This would have been an optimal game for Jimer Fory, but whoever takes his spot will have his hands full.

Portland’s main strength over the past few games has been their out-of-possession shape. It looks like a 4-2-2-2 with Da Costa and Mora at the point of attack. SKC wants to attack down the wings, and Portland’s structure is built to force teams to the wide areas. This will be another test of their defensive improvements, but it’s one that plays into their strengths. Especially with two excellent defenders playing on the wing (Antony and Santiago Moreno).

Finding Da Costa

Let’s compare Santiago Moreno and David Da Costa’s total touches in each of the past three games.

COL: DDC 60, SM 57

HOU: DDC 56, SM 52

ATX: DDC 67, SM 58

So far, Da Costa has been able to integrate himself into the team. But when the team is in quick transition situations, he’s kind of an afterthought. Either he’s the one springing the attack or he’s making a hard run and doesn’t receive the ball. As the squad gets healthier, his ability around the box will become incredibly important. If he’s open, get him the ball. I’d rather see Da Costa hero-ball than Moreno hero-ball. I asked Neville about this on Friday, and here’s what he had to say:

“I think what you saw last week in Austin was quite natural. He’d (Moreno) been out for so long, he’d worked so hard, the adrenaline of the first couple games and then you just hit that little bit of a [wall]. You can always tell when a player is tired, it’s his decision-making. I thought his decision-making last week in Austin wasn’t quite Santi-level. But he’s a massive player for us. I think the next step for Santi is that final pass, that final shot, that decision-making in the final third. We’re going to challenge him and demand more from him because he’s a big player for us.”

Matchday Info

Announcer Analytics

English: Neil Sika and Lloyd Sam

Spanish: Jose Bauz and Nacho Garcia

Home Radio Broadcast on 750 The Game: on the radio, not on Apple

Broadcast platform: FOX and MLS Season Pass on Apple TV

Kickoff time: 11:15 (11:25) AM

Referee Report

Pierre-Luc Lauziere’s 2025 stats: 5 games, 24 fouls/game, 0.4 penalties/game, 4.2 yellows/game, 0.4 reds/game

Last Timbers game officiated: March 30, 2025 3-1 W vs. Houston

Series History

Historical record: 9-9-9, -1 goal differential

Record at Children’s Mercy Park: 2-5-5, -10 goal differential

Last meeting: May 25, 2024 2-1 W

Last road meeting: April 7th, 2024 3-3 D

Table Time

Vancouver faces Austin, and points will be dropped by someone. With a win, the Timbers could climb as high as second if other results go their way (San Diego and Minnesota losses). Of course, they should already be in fourth due to The Asterisk. A loss could see them tumble down the table. The West is another beacon of chaos. Nothing new.

Final Whistle

Tomorrow’s game is very winnable, but the Timbers haven’t won at Children’s Mercy Park since they won the Western Conference in 2018. I think that streak can end. But the Timbers will have to execute. Against Austin, their shape was compact, but their execution was lacking. It’s just another test for the early-season Timbers, even though their injury report is completely blank. The climb continues.