San Jose Earthquakes-Portland Timbers Preview (6/19)

The previous meeting between both of these teams launched one and sent the other into a freefall. Can the Timbers continue their upward trajectory, or will the Quakes return the favor?

Last week, the Portland Timbers enjoyed a well-earned break. Prior to last Saturday, they had played a game on every single weekend since the season began. Now that the team has relaxed and refreshed, they are back in action Wednesday night in San Jose.

The Quakes Report

Prior to the first meeting between Portland and San Jose on May 15th, the Earthquakes were unbeaten in their previous 4 games in all competitions. This included 3 straight wins, including one against LAFC (who have won every single game since). They entered halftime at Providence Park with a 2-0 lead and a chance to accomplish something historic: a win in Portland. However, after a controversial red card and a complete collapse on defense, the Earthquakes lost 4-2. A massive chance to begin a climb up the table went completely unrealized. This result was too damaging to their momentum, and San Jose has failed to win any of their 6 games since. That run includes a 4-3 loss to Sacramento Republic in the Open Cup. 

Their putrid run of form has kept them in the basement of the league (3-2-12, 11 points, 14W/29S). The San Jose Earthquakes are officially in the Wooden Spoon race, and it is a massive underachievement given the talent on this roster. Let’s begin with the attack, because San Jose’s talent up front is among the best in the league. Jeremy Ebobisse is still an excellent striker, Amahl Pellegrino is the team’s top scorer with 5 goals, and Cristian Espinoza leads the team with 11 goal involvements (3g/8a). Their missing piece was attacking midfielder Hernan Lopez, and he has 3g/1a in 7 matches since arriving in early May. All of these attacking players can combine to create one of the top goal-scoring units in the league. They have that potential. But the real disappointment has been the defense, and those problems start in between the sticks. Cumulatively, the Quakes have the worst goalkeeping in MLS, allowing 10.5 more goals than expected based on PSxG numbers. This is the polar opposite of 2023, when San Jose led the league in that category. Brazilian keeper Daniel was a huge reason behind their excellent 2023, and I tabbed him as my Goalkeeper of the Year last season ahead of Roman Burki. In 2024, Daniel started 4 games before getting hurt. Despite this limited sample size, the Brazilian has the 3rd-lowest PSxG differential in the league. His replacement is William Yarbrough, who has the lowest PSxG differential in the league. Although the Quakes’ goalkeeping has been absolutely horrific, there are serious structural problems with their defense. Those problems start in the midfield. None of their forwards aside from Lopez put in a ton of defensive work, and the midfield turns into butter. San Jose’s tackling is a huge weakness, losing 9.53 challenges per 90 (the worst mark in the league). Because they struggle to win the ball back, the Earthquakes are incredibly vulnerable in transition. Let’s take their most recent game as an example. Cincinnati took the lead in the 53rd minute before Lopez equalized 4 minutes later. San Jose got on the front foot, and their efforts paid off with an Espinoza go-ahead goal in the 72nd minute. All the Quakes had to do was hang on to their lead, but 6 minutes later a Cincy counter was slotted home by Yuya Kubo. Tie game. Two minutes later Kubo found the back of the net again. 3-2 Cincy. And finally, in the 87th minute, Kubo completed his hat trick. Not only was it the second consecutive game where a player scored a hat trick against San Jose, it was the second consecutive game where a SUBSTITUTE scored a hat trick against the Quakes. That loss was another back-breaker for San Jose, who have now dropped 19 points from winning positions this season. They are very similar to the early-season Timbers in that regard. Despite a quality attack, they are broken defensively. Where they differ from Portland is the structural deficiencies. Portland’s defensive mistakes often stem from individual errors, while San Jose’s structure and goalkeeping are to blame. While the Quakes reel, the opportunity is there for the Timbers to pile on the misery.

San Jose’s injury report is not pretty on the eye. Carlos Gruezo is on international duty. Daniel Britto, JT Marcinkowski, and Jamar Ricketts are out. Both of San Jose’s first-choice center backs (Rodrigues and Bruno Wilson) are also out. Right back Carlos Akapo is questionable with a lower body injury.

The most notable absence from the Quakes’ injury report is goalkeeper Daniel. If he is cleared to play, he needs to start. Beason, Munie, and Costa started against Cincy on Saturday, and Marie replaces the questionable Akapo on the right. The front six should remain unchanged. There is a possibility of Alfredo Morales starting instead of Tsakiris, but the Quakes are at home so they should try to start their most positive lineup. No changes in the front four, but Luchi Gonzalez could opt to start Preston Judd instead of Ebobisse. The former Timber has only scored 4 goals all season, but Judd has been the clear number two. Either way, I don’t think that Gonzalez can afford to rotate. The Earthquakes are in a very deep hole, and they have to push forward with everything they have. They will be gunning for all three points to erase the sour taste of Saturday’s collapse.

The Timbers Report

After almost 4 months of nonstop games, the Portland Timbers finally enjoyed a much-earned bye week. Some players went to Seattle (what’s going on, Juan?), some players went to Vegas (would love to hear some stories from Zup and Zac about their fun weekend), and some players went home (although James Pantemis did miss Portland when he returned to Montreal to visit family). Now the team is back in training, and the squad looks relaxed and refreshed. The Timbers were the first Western Conference team to play 18 games in 2024 (only Miami has played more games so far) so this bye week allowed the team to take a good week off before the Leagues Cup run-in begins. 

What I see in front of me is a runway. Only three road games and four home games against some tough but beatable opposition. San Jose is at the bottom of the league, Vancouver has cooled off after a promising start, and Minnesota is riddled with absences. After that, the Timbers travel to Dallas on July 4th before hosting Nashville on July 7th. Both of those teams have underperformed for various reasons and both are led by interim head coaches. But the last two games of this stretch are the true measuring sticks. RSL is 1st place in the West and has the best goal differential in the league. The Galaxy are semi-back, and their excellent attack will be a huge test for the Timbers’ defense. However, both of those games are a month away, and the Timbers have tons of opportunities to win games and pick up points before facing two of the best teams in the conference. Time to set a points target. Although the Timbers have three players on international duty (best of luck to Maxime Crepeau, Kamal Miller, and Miguel Araujo at Copa America) Ned Grabavoy planned for those absences during the winter transfer window. The summer transfer window opens on July 18th, so any new additions would only be eligible to play (pending transfer paperwork) against the Galaxy on July 20th. There are 21 points available during this stretch. In order for the Timbers to establish themselves as a playoff-caliber team, they will need to pick up 14 points before Leagues Cup begins. That is 4 wins and 2 draws from 7 games, or 2 points per game. The Timbers are currently at 1.16 points per game. Since Portland only plays one Eastern Conference team during this stretch, each of their games against Western Conference opposition can be classified as “six-pointers.” Would I be happy with 12 points and 4 wins during this stretch? I wouldn’t be upset, but this is such a winnable stretch of games and the Timbers have to recover from the 9-game winless run from the beginning of the season. Portland has already played half of their MLS games in 2024, and that puts this San Jose game firmly in “must-win” territory. It isn’t a “cancel” game if they lose, but in order to build momentum during this stretch the Timbers have to walk out of PayPal Park with three points.

Kamal Miller, Maxime Crepeau, and Miguel Araujo are on international duty. Marvin Loria is out for this game. The Costa Rican is the only player on the roster who hasn’t seen any minutes yet. He was supposed to be back by late May according to the initial prognosis, but the coaching staff has been taking their time to make sure he’s fully healthy because there is still plenty of wing depth on the roster. Speaking of wing depth, Dairon Asprilla trained in full on Monday and should be available for selection tomorrow. The rumors of his departure have been spreading, and he will leave Portland by the end of 2024 (more on that in a different article). One last note regarding personnel: Dario Zuparic is one yellow card away from a one-match suspension. Kamal Miller is also one yellow card away from suspension, but the Canadian is on international duty.

The back five should remain unchanged from the St. Louis game. Pantemis has kept a clean sheet in each of his past two starts. Zuparic and McGraw went to Las Vegas together during the break, and they will start together for the second consecutive match. Chara returns after serving a yellow card suspension against St. Louis. Ayala has to partner him in the double pivot. Evander, Mora, and Rodriguez are undroppable but the right wing spot is still up for grabs. I think Moreno has the edge on Antony. The Brazilian has been going through a cold stretch, and Moreno could make the right wing spot his own if he can find some consistency. Asprilla, Antony, Paredes, Williamson, and Fogaca are names to watch off the bench. Due to another short turnaround, it wouldn’t surprise me to see an Eric Miller substitute appearance. The Timbers’ first choice XI has been rested, and they should be ready to go.

Tactical Preview

Transitions

This game is going to be won or lost in transition. Let’s flash back to the first meeting between these two teams on May 15th. Portland carried the lack of energy from their 9-game winless run into the first half, and San Jose was able to punish the Timbers with a set-piece goal and a goal from a careless giveaway. The penalty and red card did fully switch the momentum towards the hosts, but the Timbers began the second half with some renewed vigor and could have found their first goal before Bruno Wilson’s unfortunate handball. After Portland went up 3-2, they iced the game from a counterattack. I have already spoken about San Jose’s lack of organization on counters, and their inability to defend higher up the pitch. But the Timbers are also vulnerable, and I have the map to prove it.

This is from the 0-0 draw in St. Louis, and I’m only interested in one part of this map: the positioning of the fullbacks. Claudio Bravo and Juan Mosquera have license to get forward, but Bravo is more diligent about recovering to help with defense. Both center backs (McGraw and Zuparic) are very exposed. This is a feature of the system, not a bug. San Jose’s forward line will take advantage of any turnovers and the Timbers need to be rock solid at the back in order to stay on the front foot. On the reverse side of the coin, Portland needs to be quick and direct during counter-attacking situations. Both of these teams are very similar in that regard. Portland’s front four are very used to attacking directly on the counter, and all of them will need to be at their best on Wednesday.

Set Pieces

The other area of play that will decide this game is set pieces. If you recall, San Jose took the lead on a poorly defended corner kick during the May 15th game. The Earthquakes have scored the 2nd-most set piece goals in the league. By contrast, the Timbers have allowed the most goals on set pieces in the league. During an open training session on Monday, set-piece defending was a key focus. One third of the Timbers’ concessions in 2024 have come from set pieces. Earlier in the season, I talked about how the Timbers’ continual failure to defend the metaphorical “far post” could doom their season. So many of their goals have come from “far post” mistakes, and it has derailed their season. Those mistakes are most obvious on set pieces, but their defensive performance against St. Louis was a welcome sign that things are changing for the better. However, the improvement must continue. Those set piece drills from training looked really good, but all it takes is one mistake for the Quakes to capitalize. No “far post” mistakes tomorrow, please.

Final Thoughts

Announcer Analytics

Christian Miles and Heath Pearce will be on the English broadcast. Spanish viewers will hear Carlos Mauricio Ramirez and Maximiliano Cordaro. Tomorrow’s game kicks off at 7:30 PM PST, and it is NOT FREE on Apple TV.

Referee Report

Marcos de Oliveira is the center ref for tomorrow’s match. The last Timbers match he refereed was the 5-0 loss in Houston last year.

2024: 7 games, 21.57 fouls/game, 0.29 penalties/game, 3.29 yellows/game, 0 reds/game

Final Whistle

Portland has the historical advantage over the Earthquakes with a 18-10-6 record across all competitions. However, San Jose has a 6-6-4 record against Portland at PayPal Park.

The Timbers fell out of a playoff spot during their bye week, but they only did so because of goal differential. The gap between 10th place and 5th place is only 4 points. However, San Jose is 10 points behind a playoff spot and they will be eager to end their winless streak that the Timbers (and referee Pierre-Luc Lauziere) began on May 15th. Portland is still one of three Western Conference teams that are 4 games unbeaten. Tomorrow’s game is an excellent match to increase that run. With the gap so small between 5th and 10th, every single point from now until Leagues Cup is going to be crucial. A rested and ready Timbers team now has a runway, and PayPal Park is literally a runway (due to the airport next door). They just need to take off.