San Jose Earthquakes-Portland Timbers Preview (5/3)

One thing is for certain: chaos will reign supreme.

The Portland Timbers are taking their 7-game winning streak to San Jose this weekend, and the Earthquakes are throwing them a party. It’s Colombia Night at PayPal Park tomorrow to celebrate San Jose’s lone Colombian (Chicho Arango). However, you don’t throw a theme night like this one against Colombia FC. Tactical mistake.

The Quakes Report

The 2024 San Jose Earthquakes were an utter catastrophe. They conceded 78 goals and won the Wooden Spoon. However, their winter was transformative.

Bruce Arena filled the vacant head coaching position after Luchi Gonzalez’s mid-season sacking. Does that raise your eyebrows? It certainly should. In September 2023, Arena was fired from New England after making “insensitive remarks.” Prior to his termination, he was put on administrative leave for six weeks. It amazes me that Arena was able to be hired by another team while there is still no public report about the exact reason he was fired (what did he say?). After Arena was fired from the Revolution, they went into a tailspin and got bounced from the playoffs before hiring Caleb Porter and plummeting down the Eastern Conference last year. The Timbers play New England later this year, so I won’t be expanding too much on how their 2025 season has begun, but they’ve finally begun to turn the tide after a snoozefest of a start to the new season. What would have happened if Arena was never fired? Well, he certainly wouldn’t be in San Jose right now.

That last sentence also applies to a large number of San Jose’s incoming players over the winter. Throughout the transfer window, the club brought SIX of Arena’s former players from New England to the Bay Area. This includes Ian Harkes, Mark-Anthony Kaye, Dave Romney, Earl Edwards Jr., DeJuan Jones, and Noel Buck. However, two striker signings defined their winter.

The first was Chicho Arango, who was a MVP front-runner in July before a cold stretch lasting the remainder of the season tanked RSL’s promising start (losing Carlos Andres Gomez didn’t help either). This move was announced prior to the implementation of the Cashfer system, and the price was $1.4M GAM and an international slot. It might seem like a shock to transfer a player who wore the captain’s armband and was the focal point in a very good team not even a year ago. However, there were whispers among the RSL fanbase that Arango sexually assaulted a team masseuse and the team traded him due to these allegations. Disturbing, to say the least.

Josef Martinez was the other major addition after being released from Montreal and signing as a free agent. The Venezuelan is such an interesting player to me. After Atlanta released him at the end of 2022 (following another playoff miss and an unfortunate encounter with a table at Providence Park), Martinez signed with Miami in 2023 to play with head coach Phil Neville. Everyone knows what happened next. Neville was fired after a poor start, three former Barcelona players arrived, and Martinez left after the season because of Miami’s salary cap situation. Montreal signed him on a free, and a late-season goalscoring burst propelled the Impact (yes, it’s not their official name anymore, but who cares) into the playoffs. After being released again, he landed in San Jose (pretty easy considering PayPal Park is right next to the airport).

Arena has turned a pitiful Quakes team into a vessel for chaos. Not only do the Quakes lead MLS with 20 goals (tied with Vancouver and Portland at the top), they’ve conceded 19. The Underlying Numbers have blessed them in 2025. The Earthquakes have generated the most expected goals in the league (23.0) but have also conceded the most expected goals against in the league (19.9). How can one team be at the top of both data sets? Because they play every game on the edge. They are just as likely to win 4-0 as they are to lose 4-1. Both of those scorelines have occurred in 2025 (win vs. RSL and loss @Charlotte). These insane sets of numbers can be explained.

To begin with the exciting part (for Earthquakes fans), those attacking signings have delivered on the promise of “more goals.” Arango and Martinez have each scored 6 times. However, only the former MVP (Martinez) has scored all 6 from open play. This includes a hattrick against DC United, who aren’t very good. Cristian Espinoza has adapted to the new position of right wingback and is the best volume chance-creator in the league. It’s also worth noting that last year’s top acquisition (attacking midfielder Hernan Lopez) has only played in two games due to injury. Somehow, their attack can get better.

Even though the attack has been outstanding, the defense has been the main story. Arena began the campaign with a back three, but a combination of a weak defensive midfield and poor center back performances have tanked any ability to turn their attacking exploits into actual results. The group got a big boost with Daniel’s strong early-season form between the sticks, but he missed a few games due to injury and Earl Edwards Jr. had to start in his place. That name should be familiar to Timbers fans; he gave up a bicycle kick to Yimmi Chara in the 2022 season opener. He has also been a terrible goalkeeper throughout his whole MLS career, and was obviously brought to San Jose because he’s one of Arena’s guys.

Edwards Jr. started San Jose’s “nutshell” game against SKC on April 19th. I’m using that term to describe any game that plays out like a microcosm of a team’s season. The Quakes lost this game 5-3 at home and only allowed 5 shots on target. Edwards Jr. failed to make any saves. San Jose won the xG battle 4.18 (2.58 npxG) to 1.76 and got clobbered. SKC was up 3-0 by the 24th minute.

At home, the Quakes (3-1-6, 10 points, 11W/22S) have scored 15 goals and allowed 10. On the road, they’ve scored 5 and allowed 9. They are a better home team than an away team, and have lost their last 3 games. Tomorrow’s game is a big one. For them, a win is necessary.

SJ Injury Report & Projected Starting XI

Martinez’s status is very surprising. Lopez and Wilson’s absences are not.

I’m going to be perfectly honest. The absence of Martinez could change San Jose’s entire shape. Arena has been running a two-striker system to get both Arango and Martinez on the field at one time. Could he change the system to account for this absence? It’s possible, but unlikely. The defensive unit is pretty settled. I expect Jones to make his first start on the left side with Espinoza opposite. The midfield has been a muddled mess. Leroux, a 2025 draft pick, has been the only settled starter. Kaye and Ian Harkes could play alongside him. Tsakiris is a number 10, and could return to the starting lineup after being dropped against the Crew. Judd for Martinez seems like a logical switch. Since I’m pretty unsure about the accuracy of this prediction, I’m going to include another one just for kicks.

Screw it. How about a third?

Do not rule out the possibility of Buck making his Earthquakes debut. Arena gave him a huge platform in New England.

There are now a ton of questions surrounding San Jose’s team. But they need a win, and they need to shore up the defense. And they’ll be missing their joint-top scorer as well. It’s also worth remembering that the Quakes are hosting Sacramento on Tuesday night in the Open Cup. Some rotation is possible, but they need MLS results first and foremost.

The Timbers Report

This is the final game of Portland’s most difficult stretch of the season (so far). Four of five away from home, and zero losses. The Timbers (5-3-2, 18 points, 2W/7S) have played 5 road matches in 2025, and are 3-1-1 in those games with a +5 goal differential. Last year’s team only won 3 road games ALL SEASON. That’s also the same amount of road wins that the 2013 team had. The club record for most road wins in a season was set in 2014 and tied in 2015. That mark is 7. With a win tomorrow, they will be more than halfway to that 7-win record.

Meanwhile, it’s time to discuss The Underlying Numbers. Specifically how they relate to Portland’s MLS-leading 20-goal attack.

This chart was published in an article released on Friday morning by the fine folks at American Soccer Analysis. I’d recommend reading the entire thing because it’s chock-full of excellent analysis (it should be, the website is LITERALLY CALLED American Soccer Analysis).

The chart above is comparing Portland’s xG from 2024 to 2025, and specifically touches on the types of play that result in created chances. The green categories all relate to “progression.” As you can see, there are three major categories that have seen a downturn in percentile: through balls, crosses, and other progressive passes that don’t fall into any of the listed categories.

I’m going to start with crosses. Portland has only completed 9 crosses into the box in 10 games. That’s second-fewest in the league. Last year’s team finished with the 11th-most crosses into the box. Their cross-completion percentage is a lousy 7%. The Numbers are telling them to stop attempting crosses.

Through balls is the most interesting category for me. According to FBRef, the Timbers have two players in the top 10 for most completed through balls (Da Costa and Moreno). I think their xG from through balls will continue to rise, especially as Jonathan Rodriguez continues to get more playing time. This logic also applies to the general “progressive” category.

However, I do think that this article points out a major facet of Portland’s attack: their reliance on ball-carrying. Da Costa differs from Evander because he is a much more dynamic dribbler, and will often take on players rather than looking for a pass (especially when he finds himself out on the wing). Although the Timbers have been a lot better on the ball, they aren’t that dangerous with their progressive passing. That’s still something to work on. But it’s also worth pointing out that the Timbers have the second-most carries into the final third. I think the next step is finding the pass before the pass. On counters, it’s pretty easy. But in possession, it’s still a work in progress.

PTFC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI

After missing last week’s game and not traveling under the “questionable” tag, Diego Chara is confirmed to miss his second game in a row. Fory, Pantemis, and Rodriguez are all new additions, but it’s worth wondering if Rodriguez’s questionable status is a flare-up of his recent injury.

The Timbers are also dealing with Open Cup, but I see no reasons to change last weekend’s starting XI. However, if Fory is not deemed fit to play, I think it’s a big opportunity for Claudio Bravo. Since I’m predicting zero changes, it’s time to talk about the striker theory.

I think that Neville is giving Kelsy starts on the road because he’s pushing the young striker to excel in difficult environments. Mora’s skills in hold-up play translate better to Providence Park than a road game. Here’s an interesting stat: Mora hasn’t scored a goal away from home in over a year (last road goal April 7th, 2024 in Kansas City). Kelsy fits Portland’s away style better than Mora. He’s a better counterattacking threat than the Chilean as opposed to an in-possession creative force. Competition is still strong up top, but credit to the front office for finding a different profile to Mora that can be used in different situations.

Tactical Preview

The Long Ball/The High Line

There was one major moment against the Galaxy that I didn’t touch on. Finn Surman’s opportunistic long ball to Jonathan Rodriguez that set up the penalty. I’m using the word “opportunistic” here because that’s how Surman himself described it. Think of this hypothetical sequence for a second: one of Portland’s center backs plays a long ball, the intended target doesn’t win the aerial duel, but one of the midfielders is able to win the second ball. Suddenly, Portland’s attacking unit is on the edge of the final third in numbers and can launch a direct attack. It’s such a simple route of chance creation, and I’m confused why the Timbers rarely utilize it.

The WGCF chart (posted above) desperately speaks to the idea that the Timbers need to add another club to their attacking bag. They don’t have to fully commit to being a long ball team, but it would be very helpful to have it available.

This point also ties into a specific aspect of tomorrow’s game: the high line. Both teams like to use one, so this game could turn into a track meet. In this fixture last year, San Jose repeatedly exploited Portland’s high line but were unable to finish any of the chances created from this aspect of play. Backline communication will be a must.

Bonus point: this is a big game for Jimer Fory/Claudio Bravo. Cristian Espinoza is a problem on San Jose’s right wing. I’m very interested to see how Fory/Bravo and the team try to solve it. This could also be a big game for Juan Mosquera. To balance their lopsided 3-5-2, a more defensive fullback (usually Vitor Costa) starts on the left. However, DeJuan Jones can also play that position, and could be in line to make his first start for San Jose. Stonewalling the Quakes out wide is a key to victory.

The First Goal

Throughout this 7-game unbeaten streak, the Timbers have scored the first goal in every game (aside from the 0-0 draw in Austin). I think it’s a pretty good idea for them to score first not just for their own strengths, but for their opponents weaknesses. San Jose is 0-0-5 when conceding first. Portland is 5-2-0 when scoring first.

Matchday Info

Announcer Analytics

English: Josh Eastern and Jamie Watson

Spanish: Oscar Salazar and Jaime Macias

Radio Broadcast from 750 The Game: on the airwaves (Adam Susman on play-by-play)

Broadcast platform: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV

Kickoff time: 7:30 PM PST

Referee Report

Fotis Bazakos’ 2025 stats: 5 games, 25.4 fouls/game, 0 penalties/game, 4 yellows/game, 0.2 reds/game

Last Timbers game officiated: June 22, 2023 vs. CHI 2-1 L

Series History

Historical record: 19-10-6, +23 goal differential

Away record: 5-6-6, 0 goal differential

Current streak vs. SJ: 3 wins (5 unbeaten)

Current streak vs. SJ on the road: 2 unbeaten

Table Time

I’m not tired of seeing the Timbers in second place. A win tomorrow can’t cause them to rise in the standings, but a loss/draw could see them fall back to 6th if other results don’t go their way. However, the main focus is winning. Would you like to see another table?

If Portland wins and other results go their way, the Timbers could climb as high as 4th (Columbus and Charlotte play each other and there’s no way for Portland to pass or tie both of them). Either way, there’s an actual Shield race this year. And the Timbers are only 5 points back of the leaders. Very cool.

Final Whistle

I have a bold prediction for this game: both teams will score a goal. However, whoever scores the most goals will win the game. That’s how soccer works, and both teams are capable of putting the ball in the back of the net, no matter how sustainable or unsustainable The Underlying Numbers judge it to be.

Would a win against San Jose raise Portland’s level of legitimacy? Probably not. But at the end of the day, the table is all that matters. Stacking points matters. And the 2025 Portland Timbers are stacking points in the early months like no other Timbers team has before. The climb continues.