Portland Timbers-Vancouver Whitecaps Preview (6/22)
The possibility of winning the Cascadia Cup is slipping away. Can the Timbers continue their good form and reassert their dominance over their northern neighbors?
*Author’s Note: I’m currently dealing with a bad cold and I hope that this preview is somewhat coherent. Thanks for reading!*
For the first time in 22 days, the Portland Timbers are returning to Providence Park. It’s derby day on Saturday, and revenge has to be on the mind of the hosts as the Vancouver Whitecaps travel south for their only visit in 2024.
The Whitecaps Report
When the final whistle blew at BC Place on March 30th, protests from the visitors fell on deaf ears. Although Allen Chapman missed a blatant penalty, the Portland Timbers could only blame themselves for a terrible loss. The Vancouver Whitecaps (7-4-6, 25 points, 6W/12S) were in the process of continuing a red-hot start to 2024. By the end of April, they had only lost two games (against RSL and the Galaxy, both at home) and looked like they might establish themselves as a top tier squad in the Western Conference. But then the calendar turned to May, and the Whitecaps fell off a cliff. They only won one MLS game during that month (1-2-3), and that victory was against a poor SKC team. But their most embarrassing result occurred outside of league play. In 2022 and 2023, the Vancouver Whitecaps were crowned champions of Canada after winning the Canadian equivalent of the Open Cup. They are still in that competition after squeaking by CPL side Cavalry FC, but they lost the second leg of their quarterfinal tie 1-0 at home. Head coach Vanni Sartini called that result “unacceptable.” Since that “loss,” Vancouver is 2-0-2 across all competitions. They beat SKC and Colorado but lost at home to a Messi-less Miami and in New England. The Whitecaps didn’t play a midweek game, so they will be fully rested for tomorrow’s match.
It’s no secret that the Canadian menace is completely dependent on Ryan Gauld. The Scotsman (who didn’t get a callup for the Euros) has 9g/3a in 17 games this season. But he can’t carry this team by himself. Vancouver has scored 26 goals this year, which is about league average. In terms of cumulative xG, they’re in the league’s bottom half. Brian White continues to underperform his xG. Damir Kreilach looked like a shrewd offseason addition, but he’s only scored twice in 10 appearances. Fafa Picault has 5 goal involvements in 15 matches, but all of them came in a 3-week stretch back in late March/early April. Their progressive carry and progressive pass numbers rank in the bottom 5 of the league on a per-90 basis. So it begs the question: what are the Whitecaps actually good at?
Set pieces is one thing (7 set piece goals in 2024). Yohei Takaoka has been an excellent keeper, posting a PSxG differential of +4. Vancouver ranks in the top 5 in medium pass and long pass completion percentage. But the Whitecaps aren’t very good at tackling and they rank in the bottom half of the league in average possession. None of their underlying numbers inspire much confidence. Long story short: they’re mid. But they do have an established identity and their collective play is better than the individual talent on the roster.
Two players are on international duty: Andres Cubas and Ali Ahmed. Sam Adekugbe is out with a calf injury.
The front seven should remain intact. There isn’t enough quality depth to make any changes from last week’s lineup against New England. Entering the season, Vancouver had an established back three of Blackmon, Veselinovic, and Laborda. Bjorn Utvik and Javain Brown started alongside Veselinovic in New England, but the Whitecaps conceded three goals in the first half. Even though Sartini has been rotating the center backs this season, I believe that he will return to the first-choice grouping for this rivalry game. Takaoka is undroppable. Cubas is a massive loss. There’s no other player on the roster that can do what he does. Ahmed has been a huge bright spot this year and definitely earned a call-up to the Canadian National Team for Copa America. This is not a first-choice lineup by any means, but all of these players are familiar with Sartini’s system.
The Timbers Report
22 days without a home game is a mighty long time. So it’s no secret that the Portland Timbers (6-6-7, 24 points, 7W/14S) are very happy to return home. The San Jose game on Wednesday was a must-win for table purposes, but this Vancouver game is a must-win for Cascadia purposes.
Wow. This is UGLY. Although the Timbers have only played in two games, they have failed to pick up a single point. There is no way to get off the bottom of the table with a victory, but they might as well kiss their Cascadia Cup hopes goodbye if they fail to win tomorrow. That would be unacceptable. After this weekend’s game, the Timbers will have 3 more Cascadia matches that will occur after Leagues Cup. Every single one of these games is a must-win.
Since the 2-1 loss to Seattle on May 12th, the Portland Timbers are 5-2-1. That’s really good! However, Phil Neville wasn’t very happy after Wednesday’s win in San Jose. In a press conference on Friday, he laid out what it takes for a team to be successful. 20% of the work is based on different systems or tactics, but 80% is all mentality. Those words have rung true throughout the entirety of 2024. The early season slide was defined by some excellent near-comebacks and the post-Seattle rise has been defined by the Timbers finding ways to win games. Last season, the Timbers lost a total of 5 games by 3 goals or more. There are no such results in 2024 so far. The two worst losses (by scoreline) were 2-goal losses to Philadelphia and Charlotte. The Timbers’ defensive struggles are no secret, but they have been improving. But in order for the Timbers to keep climbing, they must get more out of their secondary attackers. The DP trio of Evander, Jonathan Rodriguez, and Felipe Mora have been fantastic, but they truly are the only consistency to the Timbers’ attack. There is an open competition at the right wing spot, and there are two players (Santiago Moreno and Antony) who are aiming to become the locked-in starter. But the Timbers are one of the hottest teams in the league, and for the first time in 2024 there is tangible momentum. They have to capitalize on it tomorrow, for both the league’s and Cascadia’s sake.
Kamal Miller, Maxime Crepeau, and Miguel Araujo are on international duty. Crepeau started Canada’s Copa America opener against Argentina and had an excellent performance. Marvin Loria is still out, and he has picked up an ankle injury. Neville expects the Costa Rican to be out for 2-3 more weeks.
Phil Neville hinted at some possible rotation for tomorrow’s game, but I can’t think of any changes that he would make based on current form. Mosquera had his best defensive outing of the season against San Jose, so he should make his team-leading 20th start of the season tomorrow. The Colombian is the only player to start every game in 2024 so far. The rest of the back four is pretty settled. Although Neville has spoken at length about the competition for starts in the double pivot, it’s pretty clear that David Ayala has locked up the spot alongside Diego Chara. I doubt that the captain would be rested for this match. The battle for right wing is still ongoing, but I think it’s Moreno’s job to lose at this moment in time. Maybe Antony gets another start on Saturday, but I don’t think it’s extremely likely. Mora, Evander, and Rodriguez are undroppable. Some changes could be made, but I believe that this is Portland’s best XI given the circumstances.
Tactical Preview
The Wings
Last time these two teams met, Vancouver exploited acres of space left open on the wings to drive their attacks. In order for the Timbers to win this game, they must limit that space out wide.
Here is what the Timbers’ shape looked like against San Jose. If this pattern carries over into the Vancouver game, this could turn into a bloodbath. In the second half against Vancouver back in March, the Timbers began to defend higher up the field which allowed them to turn the tide of the game. Portland needs to keep their shape while defending higher up the pitch in order to win this game.
The Midfield
Cubas’ absence is massive for the Timbers. Pedro Vite is a ball-progressor, and Sebastian Berhalter isn’t the destroyer that Cubas is. Portland needs to dominate the midfield tomorrow. Ayala is a special player. Not only is he excellent defensively, but his newfound confidence is allowing him to influence play in the final third. Since his arrival in 2022, I thought that he was more of a 6 than an 8. But the young Argentine can play both roles and seems to be growing into his new role as a box-to-box dynamo. I expect him to have a field day tomorrow.
Final Thoughts
Announcer Analytics
Blake Price and Paul Dolan were Vancouver’s home broadcasters before Apple, and they will be on the English call tomorrow. Definitely a day for English viewers to use the home radio option on Apple TV. Spanish speakers will have no problem with Alejandro Figueredo and Diego Valeri on the call. Tomorrow’s match kicks off at 7:30 PM PST and is NOT FREE on Apple TV.
Referee Report
Ted Unkel is the center ref for tomorrow’s match. He was the referee for the Columbus game earlier this year.
2024 stats: 9 games, 25.89 fouls/game, 3.56 yellows/game, 0.22 reds/game
Final Whistle
Portland could climb up to 6th in the table with a win tomorrow. The will to keep their 5-match unbeaten streak and the chase for the Cascadia Cup alive should be more than enough to motivate the players. One specific player on the roster seems to up his game whenever he is facing the Vancouver Whitecaps: Evander. He has tallied 4g/1a in 3 games against Vancouver. The 3-2 loss back in March was one of the worst results of the season. Portland is 17-8-12 against Vancouver across all competitions in the MLS era, including a 9-6-4 record at Providence Park. The Timbers will have to continue their defensive improvements and be fearless in the attack. If both of those criteria are met, the Portland Timbers should take all three points against their rivals tomorrow night.
The team should be fired up for this one, and I'd like to see another goal and assist from Evander, and a clean sheet for the defense. Vancouver's edge is a little extra rest to pester the team from the start with some pressing, so I hope there are no early mistakes that Vancouver can pounce on. I'd also like to see some possession where we take over the game. That will mean better distribution from Pantemis and the backline in general and working it through the midfield. I want to see Ayala run things and then Evander take over in the final third and working his craft.
Which team with be on the pitch with 12 players? The one not getting Unkel-ed.