Portland Timbers-Vancouver Whitecaps Preview (2/23)

Year 50 begins with the chance to vanquish last year's demons.

The Portland Timbers have had 4 months to lick their wounds. Now, to open the 2025 season, the team that humiliated them returns to the site of the bloodbath. It’s a Cascadia Cup match to open Year 50 of the Timbers’ existence. And it’s an opportunity to cleanse the air from the end of 2024.

The Whitecaps Report

After the Vancouver Whitecaps walked off the Providence Park turf on October 23rd with the biggest win in club history within their pocket, head coach Vanni Sartini addressed the media. To recap: prior to this game, the Whitecaps clinched the 8th seed in the Western Conference three days prior but were not able to host the crucial Wild Card Game at their home stadium. This was due to a stadium conflict. Specifically, a motocross race that required the transportation of several tons of dirt to cover the (already shoddy) playing surface. The dirt could not be removed, so the Whitecaps had to host their Wild Card Game in Providence Park. This was seen as a once-in-a-lifetime advantage for the 9th-seeded Portland Timbers. Phil Neville acknowledged this, infamously quoting “God is a Timbers fan” before the game. However, after Vancouver kicked Portland’s teeth in to the tune of 5-0, Sartini decided to elaborate on Neville’s heavenly proclamation: “God can be a Timbers fan but God doesn’t exist for me.”

Sartini read the room perfectly and delivered a blunt one-liner. However, it definitely angered the Lord. The Whitecaps advanced to the first round, and old foe LAFC was waiting for them. Vancouver had the same first round matchup in 2023. LAFC spanked the Whitecaps in two games, with Sartini picking up a suspension after criticizing the referees. Would 2024 be any different? Well, Vancouver was eliminated in three games instead of two, and there was no tirade from Sartini. Despite the same result in different clothes from a year ago, the Whitecaps did themselves proud in the 2024 playoffs. It was the most cohesive soccer they played throughout the season, and it came at the right time. The only problem was their inability to finish their big chances. Either way, it looked like Vancouver had established themselves as a true dark horse heading into 2025.

And then the Lord sayeth, “Not today.” Two weeks after their season ended, Sartini was fired in a shocking turn of events. A coach who many perceived to have overachieved with Vancouver’s stringent budget was gone. Whitecaps sporting director Axel Schuster gave some reasoning for the sudden dismissal: “I got to the point where I felt like we need some fresh, new energy…….we need somebody who is technical, flexible, and has a proven record that he can coach teams right away to success.”

That coaching search lasted two months. It ended with the hire of Jesper Sorensen, the former head coach of Danish side Brondby. The “proven record” that Schuster alluded to must have eluded the sporting director. This is Sorensen’s third head coaching job following Brondby and the Danish U21s. When he was appointed as the head coach of Brondby, they were only a year and a half removed from winning the Danish league. In 2024, the Drengene fra Vestegnen (that’s Brondby’s nickname by the way) finished second in Denmark. The Superliga isn’t a particularly deep league, usually run by FC Midtjylland (oh brother) and FC Kobenhavn. However, Brondby is easily in the second tier of Danish teams. In their first competitive match since Sorensen left, the Drengene fra Vestegnen (I can’t believe Evander learned this language, you have to hand it to him) thumped Viborg 4-1. Now, I’m not saying this to disparage Vancouver’s new hire. I just think it’s rich to cut Sartini loose after his overperformance. But this isn’t the only issue that the Whitecaps have had to weather over the offseason.

On December 13th, Vancouver’s four owners (Greg Kerfoot, Steve Luczo, Jeff Mallett, and former Brooklyn Nets head coach Steve Nash (groan)) announced that they will be selling the club. This announcement was immediately met by fears that the team would relocate. And something is telling me that those relocation fears are pretty rational. Sartini’s magnum opus on October 23rd likely wouldn’t have happened if the Whitecaps were able to play that game on their home field. They are not the primary tenant at BC Place, and the new ownership group would probably have to build a new stadium. On top of that, their roster got significantly weaker over the winter.

Mainstays Alessandro Schopf and Ryan Raposo left the club after their contract options were declined. Fafa Picault spent one season in Vancouver and tallied 10g/7a in 40 matches across all competitions. His option was also not picked up. But the biggest blow came right before the European transfer window closed. Stuart Armstrong was brought in last summer as a free agent and occupied Vancouver’s 3rd DP slot. It took him a while to get going, but he played his best soccer in the playoffs. However, he just wanted to go back to England. For a fee of $600K, he departed to Sheffield Wednesday after (barely) a half season in Canada. The reinforcements are, in a word, underwhelming. Three new attackers arrived: Jayden Nelson, Emmanuel Sabbi, and Daniel Rios. Nelson first rose to prominence in Toronto before Rosenborg forked over one million euros to sign him in 2023. He never caught on in Norway, and is now back in MLS. Sabbi is an American who has spent his entire career abroad. Now that he’s arrived in Vancouver, that trend will continue. Rios has plenty of MLS experience due to his stints with Nashville, Charlotte and Atlanta. He has been deemed surplus to requirements at his parent club (Chivas) and arrived in Vancouver on loan. Other than those departures and additions, the core of the Whitecaps is unchanged. Noted pest Ryan Gauld is still in town, and underrated ball-winner Andres Cubas deserves more national recognition. Brian White is still the undisputed starter up top. Ranko Veselinovic and Tristan Blackmon form a tough center back pairing. However, Vancouver’s season won’t start against Portland. Because it already did.

The Whitecaps won the Canadian Championship last season so they qualified for CONCACAF Champions’ Cup. Their opening cup tie is against Costa Rican giants Saprissa, who are becoming a group of MLS heritage players. Leading the line for Los Morados is former Whitecap Kendall Waston. Wait a minute. Kendall Waston? The center back? That’s absolutely correct! Playing in front of former Timber David Guzman, Los Morados hosted the Whitecaps on Thursday night. Ryan Gauld gave the visitors an early lead, but a second half comeback punctuated by a late winner gave the Costa Rican team a 2-1 advantage on aggregate before the second leg in Vancouver. Maybe the Whitecaps should schedule another motocross event. Worked out pretty well last time.

Injury Report and Projected Starting XI

Damir Kreilach and Emmanuel Sabbi will miss tomorrow’s game due to injury.

This is the same lineup (except Vite) that started in Costa Rica on Thursday. Every other starter aside from Gauld and Cubas played the full 90. However, Vancouver’s depth outside of this first-choice team is weak. JC Ngando could start in central midfield, but given the importance of this game I think Sorensen has to play his best XI. Another consideration is the second leg of their CCC matchup next Thursday. Not an ideal spot for the Whitecaps to be in, but there isn’t much of a debate as to who should start.

The Timbers Report

The disastrous ending to 2024 stayed fresh in the mind of everyone during the offseason. But before we can get to that, let’s do some light housekeeping.

A Contract Extension!

Earlier this week, Zac McGraw signed a new contract extension through 2026 with a club option in 2027. I’m going to be perfectly honest: a McGraw extension at this time was not on my bingo card. However, I can’t find a problem with this move.

Let’s begin with the on-field aspect. McGraw began 2024 as a starter before losing his spot due to a concussion. Once Copa America began, he reclaimed his starting role before getting clobbered against Minnesota and leaving the field with blood pouring down his face. This injury left his face looking like “a complete mess” according to the head coach. However, he returned in time for Leagues Cup, and arguably had his greatest performance in a Timbers shirt during the 2-1 victory against Leon. He scored both goals with his head, giving the Timbers their first-ever competitive victory against a Mexican team. But after a rough outing in St. Louis, McGraw never saw the field for the remainder of the season.

Here’s where this gets interesting. In 2022 and 2023, McGraw was consistently one of the top players on this team. He garnered my vote for Supporters’ Player of the Year in ‘23, and I was so outraged that he didn’t get nominated for Defender of the Year that I presented his case and let the jury decide. I can’t get this graph out of my mind.

This is from 2023. However, the change in system from Giovanni Savarese’s block-and-counter to Phil Neville’s high-line gamble did not play to McGraw’s strengths in the slightest. When McGraw is tasked with purely defending the box, there are few center backs in the league who can match his level. He’s a pure destroyer. The shift to a back three might be predicated on McGraw returning to his Terminator self in the center of that line. This isn’t the first time this has happened. In 2022, Savarese’s Timbers team was having trouble finding the back of the net but were very loose in defense. The former head coach rolled out a back three against Seattle, and after a McGraw masterclass that led to the Timbers lifting the Cascadia Cup, it was full steam ahead. McGraw was immense down the stretch as the Timbers hovered around the playoff line. Unfortunately, he had to leave the Decision Day loss in Salt Lake City after picking up an injury. But that 2022 season is proof that back-three McGraw works. If the three-back Timbers are here to stay, Zac McGraw will have an inside track to a starting role.

Now we get to the numbers aspect, and this is where the questions emerge. Salaries won’t be available until May, so it’s time for a fair amount of speculation. First of all, some facts need to be established. McGraw’s previous contract ran through 2025 with a club option for 2026. This new deal adds an extra guaranteed year and pushes the option one year further down the road. That old contract saw McGraw collect the 6th-lowest salary on the team last season. Per my own opinion, it was the second-best contract on the team in terms of value (Claudio Bravo’s deal is number one). I don’t think a serious raise (like 2x his previous salary) is the number that both camps agreed on. Last season, his guaranteed compensation was just shy of $200K ($196,750 to be exact). My early prediction is for his new deal to be in the range of $300-325K per year. That’s still a very value-friendly deal in a salary cap league.

There were many people who thought that McGraw would get traded during this offseason. However, any such deal would have been laughed at by anyone with a working brain. You don’t trade away players with significant value AND have a very team-friendly contract. But do you sign them to extensions after a dip in form? Maybe not, but you can look at past production and some of McGraw’s highs from 2024 and understand why this deal was made. It’s very easy to forget that McGraw was the first player Neville contacted after getting the Portland job. One rough season wasn’t going to change the Canadian’s position in the locker room and on the depth chart. And after a turbulent 2024 with constant flux at the center back spot, McGraw has an opportunity to establish himself as a dependable piece in a re-tooled defense. He isn’t the young breakthrough defender he was in 2022 two years removed from college. He’s 27 years old and has 4 caps for Canada. Last year, I faced the harsh truth that McGraw wasn’t the best fit for Neville’s 2024 philosophy. But there’s a new tactic in town, and it begins with three center backs. McGraw should be one of those three.

An Afternoon at the Park

That was more words than I initially intended to write about Zac McGraw’s contract extension, but this is my website and I can say whatever I want. Those words can also apply to Merritt Paulson, about to begin his 18th full season as the owner of the Portland Timbers. In a rare press conference, he spoke to an assembled group of reporters and shared his thoughts on the club’s 50th anniversary. And he certainly didn’t mince his words. Between sharing some fond memories (like his recollection of Diego Valeri’s debut goal against the Red Bulls in 2013) and an admission of how much he is driven to win (a “lazer, myopic focus” on winning another MLS Cup) the club’s owner spoke about his time in charge while also focusing on the future. However, there are a couple of interesting quotes to unpack.

First of all, a teaser about a future announcement regarding the Timbers’ training facility. It is no secret that investing in new training facilities has been a major focus around MLS, and the Timbers’ current facility has been in use since 2012 with only one major renovation in 2018. I’m very interested to see what this upcoming announcement will entail.

The second quote is everything that was left unsaid. Per my recollection, this is Paulson’s first press conference since he publicly announced that he was stepping down as the club’s CEO in October 2022. It could have been a time to reflect on the off-field issues from the past couple of years, but his focus was on the good times rather than the bad. Any comments of that nature would likely have been met with various levels of snark, but saying something in regards to the Yates Report and Polo incident was probably better than saying nothing at all. It is a landmark of his stewardship, certainly for the worse. Alas, it is still his team, and he can say whatever he wants.

Pivoting to the preparations for the upcoming match and season, this was the first open training session for new arrival David da Costa. The Portuguese midfielder looked healthy and active during on-field drills. Even in training sessions, his effortless speed stood out. During his introductory press conference, da Costa’s smile lit up the room. His eagerness to begin playing was evident in his tone combined with the words affirming that sentiment coming out of his mouth. However, pure eagerness does not account for the visa process. His inclusion in the match squad could come down to a matter of minutes as the Timbers wait for his P-1 visa to be cleared and his eligibility to play to be affirmed. Currently, da Costa has a B-1 visa that allows him to train with the team.

However, on Saturday, da Costa’s P-1 visa was approved in a massive victory for the club. This is the second consecutive time that the visa process has been down to the wire after Jonathan Rodriguez’s rapid visa acquisition allowed him to start mere days after arriving in Portland. Despite having to wait on so many other factors for da Costa to even arrive in Portland, he will be available for the season opener.

Injury Report and Projected Starting XI

Da Costa’s availability is huge. However, the Timbers will begin their season without Santiago Moreno and Jonathan Rodriguez. Those absences were already expected given their lack of preseason playing time. However, the surprising inclusion of Dario Zuparic due to a knee injury took me by surprise. The severity of Zuparic’s injury is unknown at this time.

Let’s compare the team that took the field on October 23rd to my projected starting XI for tomorrow. Only 4 players (Mora, Ayala, Chara, and Antony) appear on both teamsheets. For the first time since 2021, Felipe Mora is available to start Portland’s season opener. Little victories, y’all. Ayala and Chara ended 2024 as the first-choice midfield pairing. Joao Ortiz could start, but da Costa’s visa miracle clears the way for Portland’s headlining acquisition to enter the XI. Do I think that Phil Neville will keep da Costa on the bench? It’s possible, but in the span of two days Jonathan Rodriguez went from arriving in Portland to starting against the Philadelphia Union. Da Costa will start. Antony started on the right wing on October 23rd, but has been playing wingback during the preseason. I think the position fits him. Juan Mosquera will be available on the bench, but he just returned from injury. The Timbers can afford to use Mosquera as a substitute. Due to Mosquera’s questionable match fitness, I predict that the Timbers will start an entirely different defensive unit than the Wild Card Game. Crepeau, Miller, McGraw, and Surman were all on the bench for the catastrophe. Given how highly Ned Grabavoy and Neville have spoken of Surman, I’d be shocked if Miguel Araujo started tomorrow’s game instead of him. The other three are locked-in starters. Now it’s time to talk about the two other debutants: Kelsy and Fory. Kelsy’s inclusion seems the most obvious. However, the battle between Fory and Claudio Bravo will be fascinating to watch as the season goes on. Draft pick Ian Smith provides further depth at the position and I expect him to be on the bench. Fory gets the nod from me for a reason I will explain later.

Tactical Preview

Set Pieces

And by later, I mean right now. In the 5-0 loss, Vancouver scored their first two goals off of set pieces. This is a perfect opportunity to set a new standard for set piece defense. All of Portland’s projected starting defenders are taller than 6’. They have to win the set-piece battle. No excuses.

Identity

On Thursday, after declaring that Evander was no longer his son, Phil Neville spoke about what the team would look like after the departure of their best player in 2024. “We’re going to be a different team this year. There’s going to be a new identity, a new style of play because the players we’ve brought in will make us a different team. Last year, I thought we were a team of really good individuals. Individuals don’t always win you championships, don’t win you games, don’t get you success.”

Portland’s individual spirit was exemplified by the contributions of their DPs. No other MLS team (not even the eventual champion Galaxy) were as reliant on their Designated Players as the Portland Timbers were in 2024. Entering 2025, one of those DPs has been sold, another one is injured, and the last one isn’t a DP anymore. Portland is starting 2025 with one more DP in the first matchday squad than they did in 2024. That is incredible. But the initial absence of Rodriguez and Moreno (not a DP but you get my point) leaves the Timbers weakened in attack. So how will their identity change?

I expect a more tenacious and physical Timbers team to take the field tomorrow. Over the past couple of seasons, Portland’s physicality is usually second-best. Defense will be the focus, and possession will probably be sacrificed in favor of space to counterattack into. Now, this might change as the season progresses, but it’s a safe bet for the Timbers to open 2025 as a team that immediately tries to solve their fatal flaws from 2024. And there is no better opponent for them to face on opening day than the Vancouver Whitecaps.

Final Thoughts

Announcer Analytics

English: Max Bretos and Brian Dunseth

Spanish: Jorge Perez-Navarro and Marcelo Balboa

Home radio broadcast from 750 The Game: Yes, check the audio option on Apple TV

Broadcast platform: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV

Kickoff time: 1 PM PST

Referee Report

Victor Rivas’ 2024 stats: 20 games, 23.8 fouls/game, 0.3 penalties/game, 4.6 yellows/game, 0.05 reds/game

Series History

Do I count last year’s disaster as a home game or a road game? Well, the Timbers were terrible on the road in 2024, while the Whitecaps stunk at home. Meanwhile, the Whitecaps were very good on the road, and the Timbers were great at home. Two different unstoppable forces and immovable objects. Either way, the Timbers still hold the advantage in the MLS era with a record of 18-9-13. The Timbers are still 10-5-4 against the Whitecaps in Providence Parks as the designated home team. However, they are 1-0-1 as the visitor in their home stadium against Vancouver.

Cascadia Cup

Reason has prevailed. There will be four Cascadia Cup matches for each participating team in 2025. This means that the Cascadia Cup table will be perfectly balanced, as it should be. Do I agree with a Cascadia game to open the season? Not really, but I’m not opposed to it. This isn’t the only rivalry match during opening weekend either (Columbus-Chicago, Houston-Dallas, and Galaxy-San Diego I guess?). Also, the Timbers will now play nominal Cascadia games in each of their last 3 competitive matches. Nuts!

Final Whistle

Paulson, Grabavoy, Neville, and several players have spoken about the overwhelming feeling of disappointment that lingered through the offseason. They have a unique opportunity to exact immediate revenge on the team that humiliated them four months ago. The new players have an opportunity to stake a claim to a starting role. But most importantly, the Portland Timbers have an opportunity to win a game of soccer over one of their rivals. Sometimes it is just simple. The climb begins.