Portland Timbers-St. Louis CITY Preview (8/24)
An instant chance for revenge and the beginning of the final lap.
The MLS season has resumed, and the Portland Timbers have the opportunity to get revenge. After getting eliminated from Leagues Cup by St. Louis City FC, they will welcome the Raviolis to Providence Park for the reverse fixture in league play.
The St. Louis Report
After beating the Timbers 3-1 in the Leagues Cup Round of 32, the Raviolis traveled to Los Angeles to face Club America. To give credit where credit is due, St. Louis held their own against a team that embarrassed them 4-0 during last year’s Leagues Cup Group Stage. But after going up 2-1 early in the second half, an unmarked header from Diego Valdes tied the game. Brian Rodriguez’s 86th minute penalty gave the hosts the lead, and Rodrigo Aguirre finished it off in the 8th minute of stoppage time. A hard-fought effort, but it wasn’t meant to be.
That was the only game St. Louis played between that victory against Portland and their trip to Providence Park tomorrow. Their Leagues Cup run proved one thing: they are much better than they were before the summer transfer window. Marcel Hartel, Cedric Teuchert, Jake Girdwood-Reich, and Simon Becher all contributed in meaningful ways during the tournament. But there are more summer additions who haven’t seen the field yet. Henry Kessler was acquired in a trade with New England with Tim Parker going the other way. This trade happened during Leagues Cup, and Kessler was cup-tied with New England, so he couldn’t play. Now that the league season has resumed, Kessler will be available for selection tomorrow. Although their season has definitely fallen short of expectations (4-11-10 record, 23 points, 13W/28S) this is not the same team that stumbled through the first two-thirds of the season. They are primed for a stretch run. Even though they are 10 points back of 9th place, the Raviolis will be going all-out to climb the table and make it back to the postseason. The first thing they have to fix is their road form. They are 0-6-8 in all competitions on the road this season, and have a goal differential of -15. Last season the Raviolis were 6-3-8 on the road in MLS play. This is a huge opportunity for them to get their first road win of the season.
Much of the Ravioli’s poor form can be attributed to a lengthy injury list. That list is still long as MLS play resumes. Tomas Ostrak and Celio Pompeu are both out. Rasmus Alm, Chris Durkin, Joao Klauss, Cedric Teuchert, and Joakim Nilsson are all questionable. That’s a lot of key contributors.
Due to St. Louis’ lengthy injury list, I am not that confident in this predicted XI. However, the back five seems very settled. Burki, Reed, Hiebert, and Totland all started against the Timbers two weeks ago. Kessler should make his St. Louis debut tomorrow. Durkin’s absence would be disastrous, so I think he starts. Jake Girdwood-Reich is technically a center back, but he can also play in a double pivot. Lowen is no longer the 10 since Teuchert arrived. I don’t think interim head coach John Hackworth would move him back to the 10 if Teuchert is hurt, so Vassilev would start at the 10 if the new signing can’t play. Becher, Hartel, and Thorisson all started against the Timbers two weeks ago as well. That injury list is scary, but the influx of talent during the summer window and a more cohesive game model have made the Raviolis a team to be taken seriously.
The Timbers Report
During the two-week break between games, I tried to tackle the center back conundrum. If you haven’t checked it out yet, I would highly suggest doing so.
Finn Surman was on the bench for the loss in St. Louis. The new center back has spent his brief time in Portland getting settled with the team. He credits Eryk Williamson, Eric Miller, Kamal Miller, Maxime Crepeau, James Pantemis, and Zac McGraw with easing the transition. Surman was a part of New Zealand’s Olympic soccer team, and he spoke about his pride to represent his country on Thursday. “It was a dream of mine [to go to the Olympics] when I was younger. It’s something that I’m very proud to have said that I’ve done.” Phil Neville spoke about the team’s newest player on Thursday. “He doesn’t need much training. Every day he’s been getting better and better. In the short-term, what he’s proven over the last two weeks is that he’s probably ready to start.”
Kamal Miller is suspended due to yellow card accumulation. Dario Zuparic and Jonathan Rodriguez are both one yellow card away from a suspension. Both players need to play in 5 straight games without a yellow to get one removed. Marvin Loria is out, and Evander is questionable with a calf injury.
Evander trained in full on Thursday, but it was his first full training session since the loss in St. Louis two weeks ago. Given those circumstances, I predict that he won’t start but will be available off the bench. Williamson will start at the 10 in his place. Only one change from the team that was on the field after Evander got hurt in St. Louis. I think Araujo partners Zuparic at center back. Other than that, the lineup is pretty easy to predict. Given the circumstances of injuries and suspensions, I think this is Portland’s strongest XI.
Tactical Preview
The Absent Ten
The main story of this game (well, one day before it) is Evander’s health. It was clear that the team desperately needed him when these two teams met on the road two weeks ago. However, Evander has missed 5 of Portland’s 25 MLS games this season. Although his availability may be in question for tomorrow’s game, it might not be the death knell that it was two weeks ago.
The Portland Timbers have two different versions of themselves: the Home Timbers and the Away Timbers. They’ve played three home games and two road games without Evander. Here’s what stands out: when Evander doesn’t start at home, the Timbers are 2-1-0 with a goal differential of +6. Two wins against Colorado and Nashville and a draw against DC. As you might recall, the Timbers took 4-0 leads into halftime in both of those wins. Portland was ahead at halftime in the DC game as well. However, when Evander doesn’t start on the road, the Timbers are 0-0-2 with a goal differential of -3. A loss to LAFC and a loss to Charlotte. That version of the early-season Timbers was on display two weeks ago. But since this is a home game, maybe Evander’s potential absence isn’t something to fret over. There’s a very big game next week and it might not be worth the risk to play him in this game unless it’s absolutely necessary. And if the team’s dominance at home without him is anything to go by, he might not be needed as a late sub after all.
*Disclaimer: Yes, I’m definitely nerfing his MVP case, but the team always comes before any individual honors.*
Organization
If the Timbers want to take a multi-goal lead into halftime, they must be organized and disciplined at the back. David Ayala’s presence (he was the best player in the last game) should be able to help with that. However, the main way to stop this team is forcing them out wide. The Timbers have to win the midfield battle, and they’ve been able to do that in every single home game since June. They will not be short of motivation given the last meeting between these two teams, and they always show up at home. In order to accomplish their goal (getting the 4 seed) they have to win every home game for the rest of the season. This is a perfect opponent to begin the stretch run.
Final Thoughts
Announcer Analytics
Mark Rogondino and Heath Pearce will be on the call for the English broadcast, with Francisco X. Rivera and Diego Arrioja providing commentary in Spanish. It is a home game, so the broadcast from 750 The Game is available on Apple TV. Tomorrow’s game kicks off at 7:30 PM Pacific Time, and the match is FREE on Apple TV.
Referee Report
Ramy Touchan will be the center ref for tomorrow’s game. He hasn’t refereed a St. Louis game yet. This is his first time refereeing a Timbers game in 2024.
Final Whistle
This will be the fifth meeting between these teams and the second at Providence Park. St. Louis won the only other game in Portland 2-1 at the beginning of 2023. Portland’s historical record against the Raviolis is 1-1-2.
Now the final lap begins, and the Timbers are in a precarious position. They may be five points back of 4th, but they’re also 5 points ahead of 10th. There isn’t any breathing room in the Western Conference table. Some teams around them (Houston, Minnesota, Austin) have made key additions during the summer. The Timbers decided to stand pat and add a backup striker and a young center back. Three players (Dairon Asprilla, Larrys Mabiala, and Nathan Fogaca) have left the club. They do have a window, and they must jump through it. Every other team around them wants it as much as they do. The climb continues.
Finally, a game to behold, and at home no less. It is time for the Providence Park faithful to give the boys everything, and I think the team will give back in return. I hope Evander can make a sub appearance, just to show us all that he is on a timetable to full participation. I've made my preferences known, so suffice to say that the Timbers, in my opinion, could field a stronger 11 than what you predict, but I am fully behind what ends up on the pitch. I really love this time of year, and I am looking forward to what unfolds.
St. Louis looks like a formidable side.
Here's hoping that "Home Eryk" is on the field Saturday. "Road Eryk" stank it up in STL. Similarly, let's hope we play the "Road Ravs", not the ones who overran us for the first 15 in STL...