Portland Timbers-Sporting Kansas City Preview (5/10)

"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take." -Dejan Joveljic, probably.

It’s good to be back. Well, that’s what the Timbers must be thinking after playing their last three games away from home. They return to Providence Park tomorrow to finish off their season series with Sporting Kansas City.

The SKC Report

Before I talk about Portland’s opponents, I’d like to go on a brief rant.

Scheduling: Fix It!

This is Portland’s 12th game of the season, and it will be their 3rd time closing a season series in that time frame. Through these 12 games, the Timbers have played 3 teams twice: Austin, LA Galaxy, and now SKC. I think it’s ridiculous that three season series can be wrapped up before the month of June. The Timbers will enter June without playing these Western Conference teams: St. Louis, Minnesota, Dallas, and San Diego. One of those teams should be this weekend’s fixture instead of another game against an opponent that the team has already faced. This is also really stupid from an SKC perspective.

Following Saturday’s match, the Wizards are traveling to St. Louis. Not only is this rivalry game on a WEDNESDAY, it wraps up the season series between these two. That’s a travesty. Especially for a league that desperately wants to market the rivalries that they create. At least there’s actual juice behind it. Not two sets of fans who used to support the Galaxy deciding that they hate each other and brawling in a parking lot. It’s even worse when SKC’s travel is taken into account.

This is a very mean thing to do. 3 straight road games with 4,747 miles of travel in one week. If you happened to go off to see the Wizards (shoutout to @toseethewizards, a noble group of humble lads that travel the faraway lands to watch this team play), at least you’d load up on airline miles.

The SKC Report, Continued

Since Kerry Zavagnin’s second game as interim manager ended with a 4-2 home loss to Portland, SKC (3-1-7, 10 points, 12W/24S) is 2-0-1. They immediately took their disappointment out on San Jose, thumping the Quakes 5-3 at the airport. Then they traveled to Cincinnati and lost respectably after giving up a bicycle kick to a record striker signing. However, last weekend’s game was something special.

On Sunday Night Soccer, SKC made history. They became the first MLS team to win a game with 0 shots. Now, this isn’t the first time that a similar situation has happened. Notably, the Seattle Sounders won MLS Cup in 2016 with zero shots on goal. However, they did take 3 shots and won the game on penalties. RSL gave the Sounders a taste of their own medicine in the 2021 playoffs. At the end of that game, RSL took a grand total of zero shots during all 120 minutes of play. They also won on penalties. That was the closest thing MLS fans have seen to a team winning a game with zero shots. Until SKC blew it out of the water.

In the 13th minute, Maya Yoshida redirected an SKC cross into his own net. SKC (who didn’t have a shot prior to this own goal) proceeded to defend for their lives without taking another shot. This game is now entirely unique. They performed this feat in a regular-season game with no extra time and no chance of penalties. I’m so proud of them.

Is Zavagnin’s new manager bump still ongoing? It’s debatable. But this next week could provide a definitive answer. Saturday’s match in Portland is the first of three consecutive road games in 7 days. That’s a brutal stretch. Will they be able to harness any momentum from such a fluky win?

SKC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI

Ndembe was subbed off in the middle of last weekend’s game and has been ruled out. Fernandez and Shelton (who I’d call depth players) are questionable.

Leibold replaced Ndembe last weekend, and should start in his place tomorrow. Andrew Brody started at right back against the Galaxy, but I’m projecting a Jake Davis start this weekend. SKC’s midfield three should remain unchanged, as well as their front three (despite recording zero shots).

The Timbers Report

Let’s begin with some housekeeping.

This is the current state of Portland’s roster. Because Araujo is still awaiting his Green Card, he is unable to be registered. The club is actively trying to to find a way to move on from him. However, I’d like to draw your attention to Portland’s supplemental roster.

Let’s try to ascertain which players are occupying each slots. Pantemis, Muse, and Eric Miller are all occupying slots 21-24 (Senior Minimum Salary, or SMS). I think it’s safe to assume that Smith is occupying a 25-30 slot (Reserve Minimum Salary, or RMS). Therefore, the Timbers have SIX supplemental slots open. One of those will be filled next year when Sawyer Jura becomes a senior player. I expect him to occupy one of the RMS slots on the supplemental roster. Portland has five eligible slots to work with this season. One of those could go to Gage Guerra. I think he’ll sign a first-team contract before 2025 ends. Adolfo Enriquez is another candidate for a first-team deal.

However, Portland’s lack of a strong supplemental roster is an indictment of their academy. With a strong academy pipeline, those slots would be filled. Developing that pipeline is still a work in progress.

In other news, Portland’s May 31st game in Vancouver has been rescheduled due to the Whitecaps’ run to the CONCACAF Champions’ Cup Final. The new date of the fixture is Wednesday, September 24th with a kickoff time of 7:30 PM. That game is now sandwiched between a trip to Houston and a home game against Dallas.

The Timbers (5-3-3, 18 points, 3W/8S) rotated against Tacoma in the Open Cup, and got the win. Every player who could be considered a “starter” did not travel to Starfire. So the question remains: how do they bounce back from last weekend’s disappointment at the San Jose airport?

Playing at Providence Park again is a good start. This will be Portland’s sixth home match of the season. However, the Timbers’ home record has been rather shaky. They are undefeated at Providence Park since the season opener, sure, but they’ve dropped points in two winnable games against the LA clubs. One was due to an officiating gaffe, but the other one was more self-inflicted. Tomorrow’s game is a huge opportunity to re-establish the Providence Park fortress.

PTFC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI

Neville ruled Fory and Pantemis out on Thursday. This report is confirmation of his comments. He also confirmed that Jonathan Rodriguez would be available. Rodriguez is not on the injury report. However, he specifically noted that Fory and Pantemis would miss the game and that “the rest are OK.” Diego Chara’s inclusion is a bit of a surprise after those comments, but it’s pretty common for Neville to lie about player availability in these press conferences.

Yeah, I know, it’s weird leaving Antony out, but this is the perfect game for Rodriguez to get his first start of the season. It’s also worth noting that this is the beginning of a 3-match week, and some rotation (especially with the attackers) should be a possibility. Every player who played the full 90 against Tacoma should be on the bench, which clears the way for Claudio Bravo to start his second consecutive MLS match. The rest of the team picks itself.

Tactical Preview

Defending Wide

It looks like tomorrow’s team will feature Bravo and Mosquera from the jump. While some of you are probably shuddering (for good reason), this is an opportunity for Bravo in particular to prove himself worthy of a start following last weekend’s disaster. Here’s my rationale: keep Salloi and Suleymanov/Thommy in front of you. Bravo’s Achilles heel is his positioning; usually caught out too high upfield with tons of space in behind. Suleymanov’s first game against Portland showed him exploiting that space and constantly running at Ian Smith. Bravo is a plus defender when the play is in front of him. There’s a reason he led MLS in tackles in 2022. I’d like to see Bravo play a more conservative game tomorrow and pick his spots to go forward.

Mosquera, however, is not going to be conservative at all. Since he’s going to be getting forward with regularity, I’d like to see Joao Ortiz hang back as the “6” while Ayala does more box-to-box activities. Finn Surman has already shown some impressive speed, so Ortiz could be utilized as more of a “support” defender rather than sliding in directly as a right back. Ortiz’s motor and aggression is perfectly suited for this role.

Attacking the Center

Portland’s attack is built on getting the ball into wide areas and sending crosses into the box. Tomorrow’s game is an excellent opportunity to work on creating danger through the middle of the field. SKC’s spine should be tested regularly. I’d like Da Costa to stay centrally and try to impact the game from the pockets of space around the outside of SKC’s box. However, I’ve seen enough of Da Costa’s game to know that he’s going to be shifting out wide regularly.

I don’t have a problem with that. What I do have a problem with is none of his teammates exploiting the space that opens in the middle from those shifts. Yes, I know it’s early and he’s about to play his 12th game for the club. But Neville has to be drilling into his players’ heads to exploit that vacated space. David Ayala hasn’t been a stranger to getting forward this year. Let Ayala occupy the space, which draws the attention of SKC’s right-sided defenders, and opens space for either Antony/Rodriguez on the left wing or an inverted Moreno.

Portland’s struggles to break down an entrenched opponent often boils down to their inability to open space and then exploit it. The Timbers continue to be dynamic when attacking directly, but it can be so frustrating watching this team stand around like traffic cones in possession. A key tenet of soccer is “the run makes the pass.” If there’s no run, there’s no pass. The pass can still go directly to a player’s feet, but then the ball is being received under pressure and a loose touch can result in an instant turnover. In order for the Timbers to become the best versions of themselves, they have to get better at creating space in the final third. Those crosses that Portland loves so much can be so easy to defend. Portland is a dangerous team, but they usually don’t make it hard for teams to play against them. That’s their next evolution.

Matchday Info

Announcer Analytics

English: Max Bretos & Brian Dunseth

Spanish: Moises Linares & Max Cordaro

Home radio broadcast from 750 The Game: available on the broadcast

Broadcast platform: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV

Kickoff time: 7:30 PM PST

Referee Report

Ricardo Fierro’s 2025 stats: 6 games, 30.17 fouls/game, 0.5 penalties/game, 3.67 yellows/game, 0.33 reds/game

Last Timbers game officiated: N/A

Series History

Historical record: 10-9-9, +1 goal differential

Home record: 7-4-4, +9 goal differential

Current streak vs. SKC: 2 wins (3 unbeaten)

Current home streak vs. SKC: 5 wins (7 unbeaten)

Table Time

A win could see the Timbers leapfrog Minnesota and reclaim second place. The two teams ahead of them have difficult fixtures (vs. LAFC and at Miami). However, the Timbers could drop as far as 9th if tomorrow’s game ends in a loss. The West is still tightly packed, and this is the first game in a three-match week. Portland will face three Western Conference opponents, and this table could look very different at the end of next Saturday. A bounce-back game is very needed. However, it’s worth noting the relatively unique circumstances for the Timbers this year.

Usually, the Timbers are in a position where they need to win games in order to climb into the playoff spots during May. Their focus in 2025 isn’t climbing the table, but maintaining their position. There is a big difference between those circumstances, but the goals remain the same: win your games, especially at home.

Final Whistle

After last weekend’s disappointment and escaping Starfire with a needed win, the Portland Timbers are gearing up for the first 3-match week of the season. While Neville and the coaching staff need to keep the upcoming games in mind, their focus is squarely on tomorrow. “The next game is the most important,” Neville said on Thursday. “You can start thinking about Seattle now and you get burnt in the next two games.”

The Timbers aren’t entering this game with a desperation to win. They are merely looking to get back on track after last weekend’s loss. This is still uncharted territory for them, and tomorrow’s fixture presents a perfect opportunity to “get right.” The climb continues.