Portland Timbers-Seattle Sounders Preview (5/12)

A return home to face a squad of fish who are struggling against a strong current. Can the Timbers get their season back on track?

Y’all know what week it is.

The Sounders Report

Fifty years of nonsense. The Seattle Sounders are celebrating their 50th anniversary in 2024, and the lead-up to this prestigious achievement has been one to remember.

We all know the Sounders as a group of people who can never be satisfied with what they have. It is in their DNA to keep pushing the boundaries of what can be achieved. After their 2-2 draw with Portland last September, the fearless fish realized the importance of the 2024 season. They began to look at what could be improved, and for some reason they settled on their logo. So the Sounders decided to engage in a team rebrand, most of which go terribly wrong.

To be honest, compared to other recent MLS rebrands, this is not bad. The new wordmarks aren’t awful, and I do understand the importance of the flower. But the great innovators had to keep pushing it. When I got FIFA 22, I was really encouraged by the Create-a-Club option. So I made a club and moved it through the 4 English divisions before I got bored and just stopped playing FIFA that year. The Sounders must have played FIFA that year too, because they took inspiration from Create-a-Club when they were designing this boring and basic badge. Say what you want about their old crest, but at least it had a little bit of character. The other logo that deserves a closer look is this angry orca. First of all, it’s not bad. But orcas are the top predator in the ocean, and the Sounders have lacked a killer instinct for years. That doesn’t make sense. This silly little whale also is kicking a soccer ball with his back fins, which could not happen in real life (there are no soccer balls in the ocean). Finally, and most confusing of all, they gave Timbers fans ammo. Oregon is not known for whales, but everyone knows what happens when a whale makes landfall in the Beaver State.

Excellent work from the Seattle Sounders as always. 10/10, no notes.

Moving on to the actual soccer, Seattle finished 2nd in the West last season. They had the league’s best defense by goals conceded, but they only scored 45 goals (19th in MLS). In the Best-of-3 round, they faced FC Dallas and won games 1 and 3 to advance to the Conference Semifinals. Their next test was LAFC, but they got to host the reigning champs. What followed can only be described as a classic Sounders performance. They outshot LAFC 16-7, dominated possession 69%-31%, and lost 1-0. All it took was one Denis Bouanga breakaway goal and the goal-shy Sounders couldn’t find the net. Their playoff run ended in front of their own fans, and the front office was not going to take such a tough kick in the teeth lying down. There would be changes made in the offseason.

Before new fish could walk in the door, old fish had to leave. Chief among them was serial flopper Nicolas Lodeiro, who had lost his starting spot late in the season and signed with Orlando in free agency. I have to agree with Sounders fans here; it’s very weird seeing a fish out of water like Lodeiro in Orlando. Kelyn Rowe, Ethan Dobbelaere, and Heber also didn’t get a new contract. The most confusing contract situation of the offseason belonged to Fredy Montero. He wanted a new contract, but the Sounders didn’t want to give him a new one. This time, Montero listened when someone told him “no.” Stefan Frei did get a new contract. Jonathan Bell arrived via the Re-Entry Draft. Danny Musovski and Nathan (there they go again, copying the Timbers) joined as free agents. But the Sounders didn’t stop with their innovation by plagiarism. Given the state of their roster, a Young DP slot was open. So the Sounders went shopping at a club the Timbers know very well: Lanus. For a fee of $6.4 million, young Argentine Pedro de la Vega became the newest Seattle Sounder. The attack was struggling, and the great innovators needed someone to give it some juice. Well, they’ve played 11 games in 2024 so far, so are the Sounders living up to the lofty preseason expectations? 

NO! THEY ARE NOT! IN FACT, THEY ARE DOING THE EXACT OPPOSITE! But, in a way, the Sounders are doing exactly what is expected of them. The sea is a stubborn place, and is addicted to doing the same thing over and over and day after day. The 2024 Seattle Sounders have embodied the spirit of the very entity that gives them their name. Head coach Brian Schmetzer is the ultimate Mr. Sounder, and he cannot and should not be blamed for being as stubborn as the ocean. In 2024, the Sounders are 2-4-5, are 11th in the West, and 23rd in the Supporters’ Shield. But despite their poor start, they have continued to innovate. Nothing will ever stop the Seattle Sounders from innovating. In this case, they created their worst start to a season since they entered MLS. Let’s begin with their season opener against LAFC. They went down 2-0, then de la Vega made his MLS debut. He scored a penalty that only made the final scoreline a little more respectable. Pay attention to that penalty, because it will happen again. For their next game, they hosted Austin FC in their home opener. The Sounders outshot their opponents 23-2, but the game ended in a 0-0 draw. De la Vega got hurt in the second half, and was promptly sidelined for 2 months. Then they hosted Colorado, and drew 1-1 after scoring another penalty and enduring a red card. Their next two games were road losses, one against a bad San Jose team and a good Galaxy side. Through their first 4 games, they were 0-2-3, and 3 out of their 4 goals came from the penalty spot.

Finally, they got their first win against a Montreal team that was playing the final game of a season-opening 6-game road trip. They were aided by a Montreal red card and, you guessed it, another penalty. But a 5-0 win looked pretty good, so many idiots assumed that the Sounders were back. Then they went winless in their next 3 games and only scored 1 goal. One of those 3 games was a home loss to Vancouver that featured 2 Seattle red cards. Not to be outdone, Stefan Frei picked up a red card in the next game in DC. Then they went to Philly and picked up their second win of the season after they nearly blew a 3-0 halftime lead. In that Philly game, the Sounders scored another penalty. Their last MLS match was a 0-0 draw against the Galaxy last Sunday. That Galaxy team was missing Riqui Puig, Mark Delgado, and Dejan Joveljic. Now we arrive at the present day, with the Sounders out of the playoff spots and only scoring 13 goals (5 from the penalty spot). 

It is no secret that the Sounders are having trouble scoring goals. According to the numbers, the Sounders are underperforming their non-penalty expected goals by 4.1. Their npxG number is 16th in the league. That’s not impressive in the slightest. But if I keep digging (and I gladly will) those numbers are actually misleading. The Sounders have created 24 “big chances” which is also 16th in MLS. Their non-penalty xG per shot is tied for 2nd-worst in the league. That non-penalty xG differential of -4.1 that I mentioned earlier is the worst in MLS. Those are all bad numbers, but here’s where those numbers become misleading.

The Sounders have registered the 9th-most key passes in the league. That number isn’t surprising considering that the Sounders have attempted the 3rd-most crosses in MLS. Given that these numbers are so high, it isn’t surprising that the Sounders average the 3rd-highest shot-creating actions per 90. Neither is their average of 173.9 touches in the attacking third per 90, which is good enough for 4th. Now with the full picture in view, you can see where the Sounders are really struggling. They create a lot of chances, but struggle to create quality chances. Their entire attack is out of sync, even though they have the ingredients to be competent. Why is the Sounders’ attack struggling, you may ask?

Since the Sounders lifted the CCL trophy in May 2022, they decided to keep embracing the spirit of the ocean. Schmetzer’s unrelenting stubbornness is personified by his lineup selection. Last season, it was the continued insistence to start Obed Vargas over Josh Atencio. But in 2024, the Sounders’ feckless attack has rarely seen any changes. Jordan Morris (1g/1a) has continued to underwhelm year after year despite the national media’s continued insistence that he is an elite player. Cristian Roldan has been OK, but he’s also had to cover several different positions due to the injuries and suspensions. Albert Rusnak was injured to start the season, but has only registered 1 assist in 9 games. And of course, there’s top scorer Raul Ruidiaz. He has actually been their most dangerous attacker in 2024, but 4 of his 6 goals have come from the penalty spot. Shirt-removing champion Leo Chu has 1g/1a in 6 appearances, but Schmetzer is opposed to starting him. Their fully available starting lineup is completely set in stone, and nothing will change Schmetzer’s mind. Despite Morris’ terrible start to the year, the head coach stuck by his disappointing muscle hamster after the scoreless draw with the Galaxy: “The game is both offense and defense.” 

While their head coach continues to embody the stubborn spirit of the sea, the team continues to innovate. Jackson Ragen became the first MLS player to receive a red card via an in-stadium VAR announcement. Ruidiaz became the club’s top scorer, passing Montero. But the Sounders are fighting complacency and the inevitable pull of the Big Blue in 2024. Maybe the national media will finally acknowledge that they were wrong about this team, but they are also possessed by the spirit of the ocean. And just like Brian Schmetzer, nothing will change their mind.

The Sounders have a lengthy injury report. Josh Atencio, Nathan, and Braudilio Rodrigues are out. Three key players are questionable: Leo Chu, Pedro de la Vega, and Yeimar. Atencio, Yeimar, and Chu have been added to the report this week. Atencio suffered his injury in the Open Cup match against Louisville. Chu played the final 30 minutes of that game but is now on the report. Yeimar was expected to be out for 1-2 weeks but he is now questionable. De la Vega hasn’t played since the second week of the season and was expected to be available for this game.

I don’t need to consult my own brain to figure out this lineup. All I need to do is remember the spirit of the ocean and the lessons it is teaching Brian Schmetzer. The injuries make it a little easier to figure out, but this is the current state of Schmetzer’s Seattle Sounders in 2024. Frei, Nouhou, Ragen, Vargas, Paulo, Morris, Rusnak, both Roldans, and Ruidiaz are still Sharpied-in starters. Left center-back is the only position that I haven’t fully figured out. I don’t expect Yeimar to be cleared to start, so Schmetzer has two options at the position. The first is Jon Bell, who played 90 minutes in the midweek Open Cup game. He is a natural center back. But if Schmetzer is feeling frisky, he could start Nouhou alongside Ragen in the middle. That would open up the left-back spot for Cody Baker. However, I don’t think that option is very likely. Baker played the full 120 minutes in that Open Cup match, and it would require Schmetzer to actually make a proactive lineup choice. I think the lineup I have listed above is the most likely XI for Seattle on Sunday. I do expect De la Vega to see the field, but only as a substitute. He has suffered two separate injuries since joining the Sounders and they cannot afford to rush him back. 

The Timbers Report

It’s no secret that the Timbers are struggling with ball progression, and I have found another stat to further hammer home that point. Last week I took a look at foul differential and how that related to touches in the attacking third. To recap:

After the loss in Charlotte, Phil Neville said the following: “There was no composure on the ball and no confidence.” There’s a stat for that! The Portland Timbers have the 5th-most miscontrols per 90 in MLS. This stands out on the film, especially when you look at wayward first touches. Santiago Moreno has the most miscontrols on the team, with Dairon Asprilla, Evander, Jonathan Rodriguez, and Antony rounding out the top 5. In order to properly progress the ball, the Timbers have to be able to keep it first. 

Phil Neville is no stranger to big derby matches, and he has made it strikingly clear how important this game is. In order to climb the table, the Timbers need to win games. They have looked the part at times, but now they need to finish the job. 10 points (2-4-5 record, -3 goal differential, 12W/24S) is unacceptable so far. But the Timbers are coming off a really rough stretch where they’ve been on the road in 7 of their last 9 games. Home games are the cure to the soul, and there’s no bigger opponent to return home to than the Seattle Sounders. This match kicks off a busy week for Portland. First they host Seattle on Sunday, then they host San Jose on Wednesday, and then they’re back on the road to visit Minnesota on Saturday. It’s a congested week, but getting two of those matches at home should really help. After this busy week ends, the pre-Leagues Cup stretch begins. 6 of the next 11 matches after Minnesota are at home. 

Portland and Seattle have been battling each other since 1975, and the Sounders do have the all-time lead in the rivalry. But since both teams joined MLS, the Timbers hold a 17-9-15 advantage. This includes the current 6-match unbeaten streak and two playoff series wins. Remember, the Sounders have never beaten the Timbers in the postseason. Last season, Portland traveled to Lumen Field twice. This year, the Sounders must visit Providence Park twice. This is the first meeting of 2024 between these two teams, and the next one is scheduled for August 31st at Providence Park. But the most juicy encounter will occur on October 19th at Lumen Field. That is Decision Day, so it’s a quasi-playoff game. In previous years, games against Seattle have acted as springboards. After a certain loss to the Sounders in August 2021, the Timbers had to travel to Lumen a couple weeks later. Their 2-0 victory up north launched a run that culminated in another Western Conference title. Last year, the Sounders were flying high and the Timbers were down in the dumps. But the Sounders came to Providence Park 4-1 reason, and the Timbers picked up 7 points out of the next 10 available after that game. With Seattle struggling this season as well, both teams will be fully fired up for the 120th meeting between these two ancient rivals.

This week has been dominated by injury news. To recap: on Tuesday Phil Neville said, “Everyone is fit.” Evander trained in full, but Miguel Araujo was absent. On Friday, Evander and Araujo were training on the side with Marvin Loria. In his pre-match press conference, Neville answered a question about Evander’s availability. His response was convoluted. He began by saying that Evander was “a major, major doubt for this game.” But he ended his answer by saying that Evander was “50-50.” Because soccer games are about how you finish, not how you start, I decided that the “50-50” quote was more accurate. Now it’s Saturday, and the injury report has been released. Evander is not listed, but Araujo has been ruled out. Araujo’s absence isn’t surprising given the injury he suffered against Charlotte. The real shocker is Claudio Bravo, who is out with a lower leg injury. Marvin Loria is also out, but he has been training on the side since returning from Costa Rica last week. 

I’m going to start by saying one thing: my confidence level in the accuracy of this lineup is very low. But there are several players on here that will start regardless. Crepeau, both Millers, Mosquera, Chara, Rodriguez and Moreno will all be in the starting lineup on Sunday. After the Charlotte game, Neville spoke about changes in his post-game press conference. One of those “changes” was probably Mosquera, but Bravo’s new injury will probably throw a wrench in that. Chara should return to the lineup after serving his red card suspension. With Araujo out, the right center-back spot is open. I think Neville will choose Dario Zuparic over Zac McGraw for that position. Zuparic and Kamal Miller have started one game together, and it was the 1-0 loss in Houston. If you remember, the lone goal in that game was conceded due to a communication error between Mosquera and Crepeau. Zuparic and Miller looked really comfortable playing with each other. Chara’s partner is another question mark: will it be Paredes, David Ayala, or Eryk Williamson? Paredes returned to the starting lineup last weekend and had a very good game (given the circumstances) so I think he will get the nod again. Ayala is knocking on the door, and Williamson would work better as a substitute for this game. The front four is where things get really interesting. Evander is not on the injury report, so he should start. Will he be able to go the full 90? I don’t know, but he has to start if he’s not on the report. Now there’s only one decision left to make: Antony or Mora? Rodriguez has started three games at striker and four games on the left wing. I think that this decision comes down to Neville’s game plan, and Mora has scored in 2 of his 3 substitute appearances this season. This is not an indictment of Mora, but I think Rodriguez is due for a return to striker on Sunday. Given the circumstances, I think this is the best team the Timbers can field against their arch-rivals.

Tactical Preview

The Front Foot

The key to any soccer game is scoring the first goal. In this rivalry, however, anything can happen once the scoreless tie is broken. Let’s take a look at this 6-game unbeaten streak against Seattle. During this streak, the Timbers are 4-2-0 with a goal differential of +9. Portland has kept 3 clean sheets during that stretch. In the 3 other games, the Sounders have scored first. Since this stretch began in August 2021, the Timbers have been able to recover points from losing positions in only 15 games. They’ve done it to the Sounders twice in that stretch. So far in 2024, the Timbers have scored the first goal in 4 of their 11 games and have posted a record of 1-3-0. At home, the Timbers are 1-2-1 and they’ve scored the first goal in 3 of those games. That one loss? Philly. But Portland was on the front foot for the first 30 minutes of that match. They just couldn’t convert the chances they had created. I fully expect the Timbers to use their home-field advantage on Sunday and come out flying from the opening whistle. In their 2024 home games, the Timbers have a first-half goal differential of +5. The second half is when things begin to fall apart, so Portland has to enter halftime with the lead. A halftime lead is a marker of success in this rivalry. Going back to 2019, any team that is ahead at halftime is guaranteed to get a result. Portland has not blown a halftime lead to the Sounders during that stretch. Signs are pointing towards the Timbers scoring within the first 20 minutes in this game. In 3 of the 4 2024 home games, the Timbers have scored within the first 20 minutes. They must get out on the front foot for this game to increase their confidence levels. 

Set Pieces

Seattle is known for taking very quick restarts. Short free-kicks and throw-ins are often executed very quickly to catch defenses off guard. You know who’s having trouble defending those quick restarts? Portland. The Timbers will have to assert their dominance on set pieces in order to win this game. During the 6-match unbeaten stretch, Seattle has scored 4 goals. 2 of those goals have come off of set pieces. The Sounders have only scored 7 of their 13 goals from open play this season. 1 of those 13 came from a set piece. This game is a huge test of the Timbers’ defense. Even if they clamp down on the Sounders in open play, set pieces can decide this game. 

Final Thoughts

The Quest For the Cup

Since Vancouver beat the Timbers 3-2 at BC Place, there has been another Cascadia Cup match. The Sounders hosted the Whitecaps on April 20th and lost 2-0. That result firmly puts Vancouver in the driver’s seat to repeat as Cascadia Cup champions. That’s disgusting on many different levels. In order to gain ground in the table, the Timbers must beat Seattle on Sunday. That much is clear. However, this week could prove catastrophic for the Sounders in the Cascadia race. After they visit Portland on Sunday, they will travel to Salt Lake for a game on Wednesday. Three days later, they’re back at home to face Vancouver again. The Timbers won’t play another Cascadia Cup match until June 22nd, when the Whitecaps will make their only trip to Providence Park in 2024. Phil Neville described these rivalry games as “six-pointers,” and the Timbers will need the Whitecaps to drop points next weekend and take care of business on Sunday in order to keep their Cascadia Cup dreams alive. 

Announcer Analytics

Keith Costigan has done play-by-play for both the Timbers and Sounders, and he will be on the call for Sunday’s game. Many (including myself) were hoping for Jake Zivin, but he’s in Columbus this week for Hell is Real. However, I can’t be too upset about it. Columbus are the defending champs, and Cincy won the Shield last season. Plus they met in the Eastern Conference Final. Maurice Edu will join Costigan on the English broadcast. Although Costigan and Edu are a very good commentary team, this is the week to choose the Spanish broadcast. Sammy Sadovnik and Diego Valeri will be on the call. This game will be broadcast FOR FREE on Apple TV and it will also be available on FOX. Kickoff time is scheduled for 1:45 PM Pacific time.

Costigan: 1-2-0

Edu: 1-2-1

Sadovnik: 0-0-0

Valeri: 2-2-6

Referee Report

Allen Chapman will be the center ref for this derby match. Chapman has already refereed one Timbers match in 2024, and it was the 3-2 loss in Vancouver when the Timbers were denied a late penalty. Sigh.

*All stats from @MLSRefStats on Twitter*

Gut the Fish

Gut the fish. Detonate the whale. Just win this game and keep the streak going. This is the biggest match of Neville’s tenure so far, and he needs to be at his best. Put the complacent performance from Charlotte in the rear-view mirror. To use Neville’s own words, give the Timbers Army something to celebrate at work on Monday. T2 sent Tacoma Defiance packing with a 4-1 spanking, now the Timbers need to send the Sounders back to their city of nonsense with zero points. There’s only one thing to do on Sunday: beat Seattle.