Portland Timbers-Nashville SC Preview (7/7)

The Timbers are back at home, but they return to a heat wave. Can they rebound from their stumble in Dallas?

There is no time for the Timbers to lick their wounds after Thursday’s loss in Dallas. After another quick turnaround, Portland will host Nashville SC on Sunday.

The Nashville Report

Since entering MLS in 2020 as an expansion franchise, Nashville SC has been the definition of “high-floor.” They have made the playoffs in each of their past three seasons despite swapping conferences twice. The Coyotes spent 2020 and 2021 in the Eastern Conference before switching to the West in 2022 to accommodate Charlotte FC. This was only for one season, and Nashville was back in the East (their rightful home) in 2023. They should never leave the Eastern Conference again. Last season, the Coyotes made the playoffs as the 7 seed in the East. Although they lost twice to Orlando in the first round (both 1-0 losses), their high point of the season was Leagues Cup. They advanced from a group with the Colorado Rapids and Toluca, but then rode a wave of momentum all the way to the Final. This run included a win on penalties over eventual Shield winners Cincinnati, a demolition of Minnesota, and victories against Mexican giants Club America and Monterrey. However, although they hosted the Final, they fell in penalty kicks to Inter Miami. That near-miss with their first MLS trophy took the wind out of their sails. Nashville went on to win only two out of their remaining 12 games in 2023, with the majority of those results being draws. So how has 2024 been going in Music City?

Not great! Due to their Leagues Cup run, Nashville entered CONCACAF Champions Cup for the first time. Their run was ended in the Round of 16 by Inter Miami. Woof. Their poor start to the season cost head coach Gary Smith his job on May 16th. This has caused some debate amongst Nashville fans. While Smith could be described as “pragmatic” and “defense-first,” his style of play had led to some success. Much of the ire was directed at GM Mike Jacobs. Many Nashville fans believe that Jacobs hadn’t done enough to build a balanced roster. In my opinion, both of these things are true. When he’s 100%, Hany Mukhtar is one of the best players in the league. But there hasn’t been any significant investment in the attack aside from last summer’s acquisition of Sam Surridge. Nashville defends really well, but the attack is carried by Mukhtar. He can’t do it all on his own. 

Rumba Munthali has been Nashville’s interim head coach since Smith was fired. This week, Nashville announced the hiring of Smith’s replacement: former USMNT assistant and interim head coach BJ Callaghan. The new head coach will not join the team until July 22nd (that’s weird), so Munthali will be on the sidelines for tomorrow’s game. So what kind of team is Callaghan inheriting?

The Coyotes are 6-8-7 with 24 points. They’re 7th in the East and 17th in the Shield. They have scored the second-fewest goals in 2024 and have allowed the fifth-fewest. Nashville is underperforming their non-penalty expected goals by 3.5. This attack isn’t good, and they’re failing to convert a lot of the chances that they create. Nashville’s road record is 2-3-4. They’ve scored 6 goals in 9 road games. There really isn’t a lot to say about the Coyotes. They’re largely the same team that they have been in the past few seasons: high-floor, low ceiling. Mukhtar has taken a serious step back this season. He only has 5g/5a in 19 games. Surridge is their top scorer with 7 goals, but 5 of those goals have come in two games. Walker Zimmerman is still their best defender, but he’s dealt with injury. Their form dramatically dipped when Zimmerman wasn’t available earlier this year. He’s healthy now, and he might be more important than Mukhtar. Nothing about this Nashville team inspires confidence. They defend very well, but offer so little going forward. Somehow they are 7th in the East, but they aren’t a serious contender for silverware.

Julian Gaines, Anibal Godoy, Randall Leal, and Lukas MacNaughton are out due to injury. Jacob Shaffelburg is still on international duty.

Even with the absences, this is pretty close to first choice. The most notable returnee is Shaq Moore who missed some games while with the USMNT for Copa America. Godoy is a big loss for their midfield. Neither Davis, Anunga, or Dru Yearwood can adequately fill his role. Boyd has been in good form for the past couple of games, while Muyl is filling in for the absent Leal and Shaffelburg. Mukhtar is Mukhtar. Sam Surridge should be back in the team after missing their midweek loss in Columbus. Munthali has been using Surridge as a target left winger, so he could start on the left while Teal Bunbury starts at striker. Either way, Nashville’s bench is rather weak, and they have to play their best possible team if they want to get a result.

The Timbers Report

Now that the unbeaten streak is over, Portland is dead set on beginning a new one. It isn’t surprising that the state of Texas once again proved to be disastrous. But the Timbers are back at home this weekend, and this game is another must-win. However, they will have to do it without Evander. The Brazilian picked up a yellow card on Thursday and will miss this game due to yellow card suspension. That’s not all. Phil Neville will also be suspended for tomorrow’s game due to “Technical Staff Yellow Card Accumulation.” Per my own calculations, there were two yellow cards handed out to the Timbers’ technical staff during the Dallas game. One of those was definitely directed at Neville, while the recipient of the other one was rather ambiguous. But since Neville is technically in charge of his own bench, he will serve the suspension. 

I wish that there was more to say about the Timbers, but it’s only been two days since their loss in Dallas. I do have an international update though! Maxime Crepeau and Kamal Miller will not be returning to the team anytime soon. On Friday night, Canada defeated Venezuela on penalties. Crepeau made two saves during the shootout. Now the Canadian men’s national team is in the semifinals, which means that they will play two more games. If they beat Argentina, they will be in the final. If they lose, they will be in the bronze medal game. Both players will be back with the Timbers for their July 20th match against the Galaxy. Congratulations to both of them!

Crepeau and Miller are obviously still on international duty. Marvin Loria is still injured and will miss this game. Evander and Phil Neville are both suspended. 

Two key names are off the injury report: McGraw and Eric Miller. I expect McGraw to be ready to start tomorrow. Miller will be another key piece off the bench. Everything else is pretty cut-and-dry. Well, there’s still the question of who will fill Evander’s role. I think Santiago Moreno is farther ahead in the pecking order, and Antony was one of the top performers in Dallas. Eryk Williamson could start, but he was rather ineffective off the bench on Thursday. Portland doesn’t have to worry about another midweek game next week so their best possible lineup should be available to start tomorrow.

Tactical Preview

The High Press

Likewise to my Dallas preview, I think that the high press is the only tactical piece worth talking about. In the first half on Thursday, the Timbers defended in Dallas’ half and played a pretty solid 45 minutes. But when the second half began, the Timbers began to drop deeper and try to protect their lead. This was one of my big questions heading into that game: can the Timbers keep up the pressing for a full 90 on the road? Well, against Dallas they couldn’t. There are many different reasons why they didn’t keep up the pressure (weather, conservative tactics, exhaustion), but temperatures will be hovering around triple digits when tomorrow’s game kicks off. With a full week of rest ahead, the Timbers need to keep up their pressing ways at home. Nashville’s whole identity is bunker-and-counter. Forcing mistakes when they have the ball and turning them into instant offense is the best way for the Timbers to get a result tomorrow. They will have to defend counters or quick attacks, but Nashville ranks 2nd-to-last in OPTA’s direct attacks metric. Keeping the ball in Nashville’s half will be crucial.

Final Thoughts

Announcer Analytics

Tyler Terens and Kyndra de St. Aubin will be on the English broadcast. This pairing were the commentary duo for Portland’s trip to Minnesota earlier this year. Thankfully the Loons aren’t involved, but I’m sure that de St. Aubin will try her hardest to shoehorn them in. It’s a perfect day to listen to the home radio broadcast on Apple TV. Adrian Garcia Marquez and Francisco Pinto are on the Spanish broadcast. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM PST and the game is NOT FREE on Apple TV. 

Referee Report

Jon Freemon will be the center referee tomorrow. He hasn’t officiated a Portland-Nashville match before. 

Final Whistle

The Portland Timbers have never lost to Nashville. They’ve only played each other 3 times and the Timbers have a 1-2-0 record. This is Nashville’s 3rd trip to Providence Park, and the Timbers are 1-1-0 against them at home. 

The Western Conference table will not look like this when tomorrow’s game kicks off. So instead of talking about how important it is for the Timbers to win, I’m going to look at some oddities. San Jose already has a goal differential of -27. The Sounders have scored and allowed the same amount of goals as the Houston Dynamo. Portland has scored the 3rd-most goals in the West. Minnesota and San Jose have lost 5 straight games (the Quakes have lost 6 straight). Although the season is technically halfway over already, the Portland Timbers have already put themselves in a great position for the final sprint after Leagues Cup finishes. This Nashville game will be hard due to the short rest and scorching temperatures. But they are at home. Portland’s home record in 2024 is 5-3-2. The only two losses have come to Philadelphia and Seattle. Although the Timbers’ unbeaten streak died in Dallas, they still have a 5-game unbeaten streak at home. But a draw is not acceptable tomorrow. They have to win.