Portland Timbers-LAFC Preview (4/19)

A measuring stick and a new acquisition.

“We knew at the start of this month that we were going to have four out of five away from home and this was going to be our only home game,” Phil Neville told an assembled group of reporters on Thursday. “We’re going to need the supporters with us, we’re going to need to make it intimidating. We’re going to need to make it one of those special Providence Park nights.”

The only Timbers game at Providence Park during the month of April is finally here. After extending their unbeaten streak to five, it’s time to face LAFC.

The LAFC Report

The Portland Timbers played LAFC twice in 2024, and both meetings left sour tastes in Portland’s mouth. After taking a 2-1 lead into halftime in the home fixture, an early Maxime Crepeau red card at the start of the second half immediately switched the tone of the game. Mateusz Bogusz equalized on the ensuing free kick, but the Timbers held on for the 2-2 draw despite the disadvantage. Two weeks later, the Timbers traveled to LA for the reverse fixture. A putrid first half ended with a 2-0 LAFC lead. However, the Timbers fought back in the second half to tie the game at 2 in the 73rd minute. Unfortunately, during his 377th appearance for the club, Diego Chara received a second yellow card three minutes after the equalizer. The Timbers were on the back foot again, but a late Denis Bouanga winner off of a corner kick in stoppage time erased all of the effort expended to tie the game. That’s one point from two games where the Timbers had a serious shout to earn at least four points.

Meanwhile, the Black-and-Gold had another successful season. They reached two more finals (Leagues Cup and Open Cup) and actually won one of them this time (Open Cup)! The regular season ended with LAFC on top of the West after a fortunate Decision Day loss by their crosstown rivals in Houston. As the top seed in the conference, they faced the winner of the Wild Card Game (Vancouver). The Whitecaps put up more of a fight than they did in 2023, but the end result was still the same. In the Conference Semis, the Seattle Sounders were waiting. During the 2024 season, LAFC faced Seattle four times, with three of them on the road. They won all of those games. A 2-1 victory at home in the league, two 3-0 wins at Lumen in both league play and Leagues Cup, and a 1-0 win at Starfire in the Open Cup Semifinal. It’s safe to say that the Black-and-Gold had Seattle’s number. Until they didn’t.

Despite taking the lead at the beginning of the second half, an own goal from Maxime Chanot tied the game 9 minutes later. The tie wasn’t broken in regulation, but a Jordan Morris goal in the 109th minute gave Seattle the lead. They wouldn’t relinquish it, and LAFC’s season was over. After playing the entirety of regulation in a cowardly 3-4-3 shape, head coach Steve Cherundolo switched back to the trusty 4-3-3 in extra time. The hosts outshot Seattle 27-13, and a Man of the Match performance from Stefan Frei was the only thing keeping LAFC off the board. Either way, it was a very disappointing end to 2024.

Cue the usual busy winter transfer window. Key contributors Eduard Atuesta, Kei Kamara, Lewis O’Brien, Ilie Sanchez, and Jesus Murillo all left the club. But the bigger losses were the outgoing transfers rather than expiring contracts. Two players (Mateusz Bogusz and Omar Campos) were sold to Cruz Azul. Winger Cristian Olivera (who I never really rated to begin with) was sold to Gremio. LAFC’s constant roster churn depleted the squad of several key players, but since they’re LAFC they were able to be active in the incoming market as well.

Jeremy Ebobisse and Yaw Yeboah signed with the club as free agents. Two inter-league trades (Nkosi Tafari and Mark Delgado) were executed. Two players were signed permanently from abroad (Artem Smolyakov and Igor Jesus). Two more incoming loans were executed (Odin Thiago Holm and Cengiz Under). That’s a lot of turnover, but one role was ignored: midfield chance creator.

Did this oversight impact the beginning of LAFC’s 2025 campaign? Well, kind of. The Black-and-Gold were back in the CONCACAF Champions’ Cup for the first time since losing the final to Club Leon in 2023. During their CONCACAF voyage, LAFC dispatched Colorado and Columbus (a huge win for them after the Crew defeated them in the 2023 MLS Cup Final and the 2024 Leagues Cup Final) to set up a meeting with Inter Miami in the Quarterfinals. They took a 1-0 lead from the first leg to South Florida, but the lights were just too bright in leg number two. A very chippy game ended with a winner from the penalty spot by Lionel Messi in the 84th minute. The biggest knock on Steve Cherundolo’s tenure has been a supposed inability to win big games. Prior to defeating SKC in the Open Cup Final last season, the Black-and-Gold lost four consecutive finals. Was LAFC able to stay competitive in the league during their CONCACAF expedition?

Sort of. LAFC (4-0-4, 12 points, 7W/13S) began the 2025 MLS season with two 1-0 victories against Minnesota and NYCFC. However, a heavily rotated team lost 5-2 in Seattle between both legs of the Columbus tie in CONCACAF. It should be noted that the Sounders were also rotating for that game due to continental play. I think it’s safe to say that the 5-2 loss at Lumen is one of the worst results of the entire season across the league. A 1-0 home loss to Austin followed, but the Black-and-Gold quickly returned to winning ways with a 2-0 victory in Kansas City. Two more road losses followed (San Diego and Houston) before they won their first home game since March 1st last weekend against San Jose.

LAFC is another high-floor Western Conference team, but that floor has been compromised by their poor attack (by their standards). They’re generating 1.14 npxG per 90, which is 21st in the league. Because they haven’t been able to acquire a true number 10, LAFC’s attack is completely predicated on dribbling. As a result, their game model is predicated on strong defense and attacking transition. Last summer, Olivier Giroud joined the team from AC Milan. The Frenchman made his name in Europe as one of the top in-possession strikers in the world. Since joining the Black-and-Gold, he hasn’t registered a single MLS goal. He did score in the Open Cup Final and the Leagues Cup Final, but zero goals in 19 MLS games is a pitiful return. Either way, I’m putting LAFC on #FraudWatch until they acquire a midfield creator. The game model is “high-floor” by definition, but their ceiling is still severely limited. If they can’t defend (and they’ve been rather poor defensively in 2025), they won’t be able to win games. Speaking of slumping players, Denis Bouanga finally scored his first MLS goal of the season last weekend. So much of their attack flows through him, and if he can’t keep finding the back of the net they’ll fall closer to “Wild Card” than “first-round bye.”

However, news broke on Friday that Cherundolo would be stepping down at the end of the season and returning to Germany. The first game of Cherundolo’s lame-duck period is on Saturday. That’s another interesting twist for tomorrow’s match.

LAFC Injury Report and Projected Starting XI

Chanot’s absence is pretty big considering how well he has played in previous trips to Providence Park (2021 MLS Cup, 2023 1-1 draw with NYCFC). Dellavalle is a former Juventus youth player who hasn’t made a first-team appearance with LAFC yet.

With a full week of rest, I think Cherundolo decides to return to the 4-3-3. Lloris has been fine since coming to MLS, but he hasn’t been the elite goalkeeper that he once was. Hollingshead and Palencia are surefire starters at fullback. Tafari, Eddie Segura, or Marlon are all in contention to replace Chanot at center back. My gut says Tafari because he’s the best in the air. Their midfield three picks itself. So does their front three. However, there are other options on the right and up top. Ebobisse is healthy for this game, and could start ahead of the goalless Giroud. Nathan Ordaz has been LAFC’s most impressive attacker over the past couple of weeks and could start out wide or up top. Prized youngster David Martinez is another candidate to start on the right. LAFC has a lot of depth in the attack, but Cherundolo still has to pick the right players.

The Timbers Report

Strength of schedule has already been called into question, but Portland’s current 5-match unbeaten streak (including 2 wins in 3 road games) is impressive. Since beating Houston 3-1 on March 30th, the Timbers extended their road undefeated streak to 3 games. A return home is incredibly welcome. Portland will be back at home after a couple road games carrying tangible momentum. That doesn’t happen very often.

That momentum has been carried by a resurgent defense. Sure, the attack has done their bit, but an improved defensive shape and mentality has made this recent run of good form sustainable. Last week, I took a look at how the underlying numbers for Portland’s attack have fared in 2025. Thanks to another excellent graph from @jamonm.bsky.social, it’s the defense’s turn.

The Timbers are dead-center on this chart. Out of the five “Great xG” chances that the Timbers have conceded, only two of them resulted in goals. That’s a ratio of 40%. This could be a factor of their “poor” strength of schedule and playing weaker attacking teams, but they’re doing a great job of preventing big chances. Based on the underlying numbers, Portland is doing a very good job defensively. The data is matching the eye test.

Meanwhile, it’s time to talk about a transaction! Actually, two of them!

GAM Me Everything (Including More Depth)

On Friday, the Timbers completed a trade with Inter Miami. The Herons received a 2025 International Roster Slot in exchange for $270K GAM.

I love these trades so much. But it’s understandable if a bit of concern might have been raised due to the trade of an international slot for fake money. However, let’s take a look at what this might mean for the end of the Primary Transfer Window.

Phil Neville has been very vocal about wanting to bring in “1-2 more players” before the window closes next Wednesday. However, the trade of this international slot has narrowed down the list of potential acquisitions. Let me explain.

The initial roster compliance date for this season was February 21st. The Timbers had to register every player on the team for the upcoming season. Unfortunately, they did not have enough international slots to register every player who required one. The front office knew this, and promptly put Jonathan Rodriguez on the Disabled List. Once a player is designated with that status, they must miss the next 6 league matches before they can be re-registered. That allowed Miguel Araujo to be registered with the final available international slot. However, in order for that spot to be vacated, a player must be issued a Green Card. A work visa doesn’t cut it; it has to be a Green Card. So Araujo departed to Peru in order to get one. The six-week deadline began to tick down, and progress with Araujo’s Green Card was rather slow. So the still-injured Rodriguez returned to Uruguay to begin his Green Card process. Once the six weeks ended, both players had their Green Cards. This left the Timbers with a vacant international slot.

That vacant slot was the same one traded to Miami on Friday. Now, you might be asking yourself “Why didn’t they keep this slot if Neville is so steadfast on adding another player before the window closes?” Thanks to the new Cashfer system, it’s now a lot easier to acquire players within the league. But you can also acquire them with GAM……

As I was writing that last paragraph, Tom Bogert of GIVEMESPORT reported that the Timbers have acquired Colorado winger Omir Fernandez for $200K GAM and $50K GAM in add-ons. I’m a huge fan of this move. Portland got a proven MLS player for pennies on the dollar and immediately put the GAM received in the trade to good use. In his 8 appearances (1 start) this season, the Red Bulls youth product has 2 assists. Portland’s biggest roster weakness was winger depth, and this trade instantly boosts that unit. In addition, he’s carrying a smaller cap hit because Colorado already bought down his 2025 budget charge. That’s a very nice cherry on top of a great winter transfer window.

PTFC Injury Report and Projected Starting XI

For the second week in a row, the Timbers’ injury report is completely blank. Jonathan Rodriguez will be available to make his first 2025 appearance at Providence Park. But how many minutes will he play? Here’s what Phil Neville had to say about last year’s top goalscorer on Thursday: “I think he was incredibly excited to get onto the pitch [last week]. You look at what he could bring to us, he had two really good chances. We know he’s not ready yet to go the full 90 minutes but he’s telling us he wants to start. He’s telling us he wants to play and he’s excited to be back.”

Despite Rodriguez’s protests, I think he’ll be utilized as a super-sub tomorrow. Fory returns after missing last week’s game due to yellow card suspension. I think it’s tough to decide between Mora and Kelsy after the Venezuelan’s brace in Kansas City. But this is a big game, and Mora should be starting it. I also don’t see a reason to drop either Ayala or Chara. The rest of the team picks itself. Neville said his biggest challenge was going to be figuring out who makes the matchday squad. With a fully healthy team at his disposal, it’s a good problem to have.

Tactical Preview

Set Pieces

LAFC is one of the best teams in the league at both attacking and defending set pieces. Most of this is due to a higher-than-average proficiency in winning second balls. The Black-and-Gold are no strangers to scoring from recycled set pieces, so the danger is never over if the initial ball is cleared.

The Timbers allowed a set-piece goal last weekend in Kansas City. Shapi Suleymanov’s free kick passed through a crowd of Timbers players on its way to the back of the net. Portland’s open-play defense has continued to improve, but they cannot afford to make any mistakes like that tomorrow. After a strong start to the season with 0 set piece goals conceded in the first 5 games, 2 set piece goals have found the back of the net in the last three. With LAFC not up to their usual standard in possession, those dead balls will become very important.

The Wings

Jimer Fory will be back from yellow card suspension, and it’ll be another massive boost to Portland’s defense. Whichever winger starts opposite him will have a difficult time. But it’s also another test for the newest Timber star. Due to an overreliance on transition moments, both of Portland’s fullbacks will need to be on high alert.

This includes Juan Mosquera. In last season’s home fixture, a combination of Mosquera and Antony kept Denis Bouanga in check. That pattern did not hold in the reverse fixture. The Colombian will have another tough assignment tomorrow. With Santiago Moreno set to start ahead of him on the wing, I don’t think Mosquera will be getting the same level of support that he had with Antony. Although Moreno is very solid defensively, he doesn’t track back as far as the Brazilian. More weight will be on Mosquera’s shoulders.

Inversely, tomorrow is a big game for Antony and Moreno going forward. I’m also predicting a couple of rotations with Da Costa to get the Portuguese playmaker into wide areas. Portland’s newest DP has proven to be a direct attacking threat out wide. I’m looking forward to seeing how the Timbers attack tomorrow. With the confidence high amongst the group, there should be every incentive to take a lot of risks. Defensively, however, proper decision-making will be a must, especially out wide.

Matchday Info

Announcer Analytics

English: Keith Costigan and Maurice Edu

Spanish: Jorge Perez-Navarro and Marcelo Balboa

Home Radio Broadcast from 750 The Game: Available on Apple TV

Broadcast Platform: FOX and MLS Season Pass on Apple TV

Kickoff Time: 7:15 (7:25) PM PST

Referee Report

Guido Gonzales Jr’s 2025 stats: 6 games, 27.17 fouls/game, 0 penalties/game, 4 yellows/game, 0.17 reds/game

Last Timbers game officiated: June 2nd, 2024 vs. HOU 2-2 D

Series History

All-time record across all competitions: 6-6-7, -4 goal differential

Record at Providence Park: 4-2-2, +3 goal differential

Current streak vs. LAFC: L1

Current streak vs. LAFC at Providence Park: U2 (two unbeaten)

Table Time

There’s a lot of cross-conference matchups this week. Portland’s game is the only one between two Western Conference teams currently in the playoff places. This is a fantastic opportunity for the Timbers to maintain the pace that has brought them into the top four of the West.

Final Whistle

Every home game in MLS is a must-win. Last year’s results against LAFC should add fuel to Portland’s fire. Honestly, I didn’t need to write that much about how important this game is. It kind of speaks for itself. Thankfully, Phil Neville can do some of that talking for me: “We’re playing a team where I think if you’re gonna finish above them you’re going to win the Western Conference. I think they’re one of the best sides in the Western Conference, [with] so much experience and quality.”

This is a measuring stick. Are the Timbers a legitimate force and potentially a contender? Tomorrow’s game is the time to make a statement. The climb continues.