Open Cup Round of 16: San Jose Earthquakes-Portland Timbers Preview (5/20)

Their last trip to the airport resulted in a plane crash. Can they avoid the incoming turbulence in an Open Cup rematch?

The Round of 16 is here, and it’s time for revenge.

The Quakes Report

Since the San Jose Earthquakes defeated the Timbers 4-1 on May 3rd, they have begun a 5-match unbeaten streak across all competitions. Their next game after the Portland demolition was a 2-1 victory against Sacramento in the Open Cup, which earned them the right to host the Timbers tomorrow. Then they traveled to Colorado and won 2-0. Inter Miami was next on the docket, and the Quakes took a 3-2 lead into halftime before Tadeo Allende’s 52nd-minute equalizer caused San Jose to drop points at home. An exhausted and rotated Quakes team traveled to New England to close out the week and drew 0-0. A home game against the Houston Dynamo is looming on the weekend, but it’s a question of how much they will rotate and how much priority has been assigned to the Open Cup.

SJ Projected Starting XI

I’m not incredibly confident in this prediction, but two key players for the Quakes won’t be in the squad. Chicho Arango has a hamstring injury, and Daniel was subbed off at halftime after getting hurt in New England. That clears the way for Earl Edwards Jr. to start his second consecutive Open Cup match. Harkes and Leroux didn’t start in New England, so it’s safe to assume that both will be back in the lineup tomorrow. The same goes for Costa and Jones. This would be an optimal game for Jamar Ricketts to have another run out, but he was sent off in the Sacramento game and is suspended. Romney and Munie started the 4-1, and either Roberts or Max Floriani could be the 3rd CB. Hernan Lopez is working his way back from injury and tomorrow’s game is a great spot for him to start. With Bouda and Martinez up top, this should be a pretty strong San Jose XI.

The Timbers Report

Although the Timbers are crafting an unbeaten streak of their own, two straight draws have caused their position in the top four to be seriously threatened. The schedule isn’t doing them any favors as they travel to Orlando for their next league game on Saturday. If you’re Phil Neville, which game are you prioritizing?

I haven’t been shy in regards to my expectations for this tournament. Orlando is red-hot (both on the field and on the temperature guage) and it would be a herculean task to beat them even without a midweek game. The Lions also have an Open Cup game this week (Wednesday vs. Nashville) but they don’t have to travel for it. Portland’s thought process for this week should be going for the win against the Quakes while trying to get a point (at minimum) in Florida. A stronger lineup should take the field on Tuesday and the rotation should be saved for Saturday. It’s also worth noting that Portland’s next game after Orlando is a midweek home game against the Rapids. That rotation strategy (strong at SJ, rotated at ORL, and strong vs. COL) seems like the best possible option for the Timbers to remain competitive both in the league and in the Open Cup.

PTFC Projected Starting XI

This is a very strong team, and it absolutely should be. Portland’s backline from the second half of the Seattle game should be in from the start. I think Diego Chara will be fit enough to make his first start since April 19th. The biggest change is Omir Fernandez entering the starting XI to allow Antony to come off the bench. Yes, David Da Costa should start this game. Despite the heavy workload over the past couple weeks, this is the most important game outside of Saturday’s rivalry match. They have to take it seriously, and that begins with team selection.

Tactical Preview

Short Passing

The turnovers that plagued them against Seattle need to be rectified as soon as possible. Otherwise, a repeat of the 4-1 could be in store. If the Timbers execute the basics to the best of their ability, they should be able to win this game. But, in case those basics are once again below standard, there has to be a backup plan.

Long Balls

After some further post-Seattle reflection, I’m more disappointed that the Timbers didn’t opt to try long-balling the Sounders to death in the closing stages of the game. When those short passing sequences ended in turnover after turnover, there was no tactical switch implemented. Even though they were playing some near-unwatchable ball during that second half, the game was still 1-1 and they should have been searching for that winning goal. This is the biggest lesson I want them to take away from that Seattle game. It’s OK to change the mode of attack if Plan A isn’t working.

Matchday Info

Broadcast platform: CBS Sports Network & Paramount+

Kickoff time: 7:30 PM PST

Series History

Historical record: 19-10-7, +20 goal differential

Away record: 5-6-7, -3 goal differential

Current streak vs. SJ: 1 loss

Current road streak vs. SJ: 1 loss

Next Steps

The winner of tomorrow’s game will advance to the Quarterfinals and will be 3 wins away from lifting the trophy. The Quarterfinals are scheduled for July 8-9 (a Tuesday and Wednesday) and a draw will determine the winner’s opponent. No date has been scheduled for the draw yet.

Final Whistle

This is the second consecutive game with a three-day turnaround, and that’s after a 4-day turnaround from SKC to RSL. I’m not counting the Tacoma game because of the complete rotation (Crepeau, Bravo, Ortiz, and Kelsy the exceptions) but the Timbers have logged a lot of miles this month already. The month of April was also spent on the road aside from one home game against LAFC. Since this is Week 3 of the double game weeks, there should be some level of comfort within the squad for the busy schedule.

Tomorrow’s match isn’t just an opportunity for revenge, it would take the Portland Timbers one step closer to their first US Open Cup. Only one non-MLS team (USL-C Pittsburgh) remains in the competition, so the field is as tough as ever. 5 Western Conference teams are still present (Austin, Houston, Minnesota, St. Louis, and Dallas). A win tomorrow will likely see the Timbers matched up with one of those five in the Quarterfinals. But looking ahead is a dangerous mindset. Ignore the trip to Orlando, for now. Winning this game is far more important than getting a win in Florida. Use the Seattle result as motivation for another cup run. The quest continues.