Minnesota United-Portland Timbers Preview (5/18)
A trip to a hostile environment with tired legs. It's shaping up to be a test of will.
After a cathartic victory over the San Jose Earthquakes on Wednesday night, the Portland Timbers are back on the road for another Saturday game. They had a record to protect on Wednesday, but now there’s a record they’re hoping to break this weekend in Minnesota.
The Loons Report
Let’s begin with a 2023 recap for Minnesota United. Despite some flashes of quality, the Loons finished 11th in the West and missed the playoffs. Since coming into the league in 2017, the team was managed by Adrian Heath. In early October, Heath was sacked and a massive offseason began. They brought in Khaled El-Ahmad as a new sporting director, and began to clear out the deadwood in the offseason. Jan Gregus, Ismail Tajouri-Shradi, Bakaye Dibassy, and Mender Garcia all left the club. But the Loons didn’t make any significant additions in the winter window. Their most notable pieces of business were re-signing Wil Trapp and bringing in Alejandro Bran on loan from Herediano. But the season kept getting closer and closer, and the head coach position was still vacant.
Cameron Knowles coached the team for the first three games (2-1-0 record) before the new head coach arrived. Eric Ramsay is 32 years old, and Minnesota is the first time he has been a full head coach. However, the Loons have been able to establish a tactical identity with their new coach despite his delayed start. After using a 4-3-3 earlier in the season, Minnesota has switched to a versatile back three in recent matches. But the biggest story has been their Designated Players.
Let’s begin with Teemu Pukki. He was signed on a free last season from Norwich and scored 10 goals in 14 appearances after arriving in the summer. That’s very good! But he’s having a semi-sophomore slump. Despite starting 8 games (11 appearances in total) he has only scored two goals. This has cleared the way for Tani Oluwaseyi to make the striker position his own. The Nigerian was on loan at USL side San Antonio FC last year, and scored 18 goals in 27 appearances. Oluwaseyi’s form has translated to MLS, and he’s the Loons’ top scorer so far with 5 goals in 11 appearances. But their most important contributor has been Robin Lod. Forever underrated, the Finnish midfielder leads the team with 7 assists. He’s also playing as a quasi-10 because Emanuel Reynoso has once again gone AWOL. Well, not completely. The Argentine has only played in one game; making a cameo appearance in the 2-0 victory against LAFC back in March. Since then, he has been in Argentina trying to get his green card. Well, not completely. The team scheduled several flights for their star man and he missed all of them. He finally returned to the team last week but is firmly in the doghouse. Despite all of his talent, he’s become a massive headache for a new front office. And the team is doing just fine without him.
The Loons rank 7th in cumulative open play xG, but they’ve underperformed that number by two goals. This team feasts on set pieces. Their combined 7 goals from set piece situations is tied for the 3rd-most in the league. Minnesota has been lethal in transition so far in 2024. They prefer to attack directly and aren’t very good in possession. Ramsay’s team is living by the long ball. They rank second in MLS in two key long passing categories: launch percentage and average pass length. This means that they are bypassing the middle third, and the stats back that up. 3rd-fewest touches in the middle third per 90. Because they aren’t creating a ton of consistent chances due to their preference of being direct, they rank 11th in shot-creating actions per 90. Those shots are primarily coming from rebounds and defensive actions. Minnesota is a very proficient tackling team; ranking 3rd in percentage of dribblers tackled. Ramsay wants this team to be direct, and they’ve only played 11 matches in 2024 so far. They have 2 games in hand. But that hasn’t stopped them rising up the table. Their record is 6-3-2, which equates to 21 points and second place in the West. The Loons are only 4 points behind 1st-place RSL, and RSL has played 13 games. But there is something a little fluky about this Minnesota team. They’re overperforming their expected points total by 4, and expected points has them at 16th out of 29 MLS teams. They’re 5th in the Shield, so they are overperforming their projections. But most importantly, the Loons are 5-1-0 against the Timbers at home. The only draw came in 2022, when Portland and Minnesota fought hard for a 4-4 result. Entering this game, the Loons are unbeaten in 4, with the only draw coming against the Galaxy on Wednesday.
Five Minnesota players have been ruled out for tomorrow’s game. Jordan Adebayo-Smith, Hugo Bacharach, Hassani Dotson, and Moses Nyeman are all injured. Emanuel Reynoso has been put in timeout and has a lot of work to do before he can be available for selection again.
Before their midweek match against the Galaxy, Minnesota didn’t play for 11 days. So their legs aren’t as heavy as the Timbers. Because of that, and another week before a trip to Colorado, I don’t expect many changes from the starting XI from Wednesday. Rosales and Taylor have made the wingback positions their own. Heath preferred a back four, and the center back pairing of Tapias and Boxall is still intact. Arriaga was a defensive midfielder, but now he is a part of the back three with more license to roam forward. Lod and Trapp are essentially a double pivot, but Lod has creative freedom. Jeong Sang Bin and Bongi Hlongwane started against the Galaxy, but were replaced by Clark and Fragapane at the 60th minute. I expect Clark and Fragapane to start tomorrow, and I hope Diego Chara puts in several hard challenges on Fragapane throughout the match. Could Teemu Pukki start? Yes, he could, but Oluwaseyi is in form. Some rotation could be possible, but these players should all be good to go from the start, even on such short rest.
The Timbers Report
This team needed to beat San Jose, and they did. Now the big question becomes whether or not they can take the confidence from that win and bring it with them to Minnesota. In a conference call with reporters on Friday, Phil Neville mentioned that all of their focus is on tomorrow’s match. He also praised how the team was able to attack in the second half of that San Jose game. The head coach likened it to the freedom you feel when you’re playing a game on a playground. It is worth noting that the Timbers were ratcheting up their intensity before the red card. They were just unable to convert their chances until the penalty was awarded. There are still a lot of positives to take away from that game, but you also have to look at the negatives. The first half wasn’t really putrid, just uninspired. But this is a big road game for the Timbers, and if they can keep the momentum and confidence from the San Jose match, they could get a big result in a place where they have never won.
The Spring MLSPA Salary Release happened this week, so let’s take a closer look at it.
*Left column is base salary, right column is guaranteed compensation.*
Jonathan Rodriguez is the Timbers’ top earner, and he is the 27th-highest paid player in MLS. Evander was the top earner on the team last season, but Rodriguez has surpassed him this year. Felipe Mora is the 3rd-highest earner, and he’s occupying a Fake DP slot. His salary is large, but it’s below the max-TAM line. Six players are making above the senior max. Time to compare this to the roster profile released earlier this month.
Miguel Araujo, Dario Zuparic, and Kamal Miller are the only players above the senior max who are listed as TAM players. Juan Mosquera, Claudio Bravo, and Diego Chara are also on TAM but are making below the senior max. The Timbers’ cumulative salary spend ranks 19th out of 29 MLS clubs. With the team struggling, it’s pretty clear that the front office is getting what they paid for. All of the special roster slots are used up, but there will be rule changes in the summer to allow teams some extra roster flexibility. I already discussed both possible paths, but the Timbers need to use more TAM. That’s an excellent way to add some proven senior talent to a team that is still not fully built. Another DP or another U22 Initiative player could be coming in the summer. But there is room to add more talent without utilizing one of those spots.
Value-wise, Eric Miller has the best contract on the team. There really isn’t a truly horrific contract on this roster, and Larrys Mabiala’s deal expires at the end of the season. He’s the last bad Gavin Wilkinson contract still on the books. All of the top earners have played significant minutes so far in 2024. Ned Grabavoy is still cleaning up after Wilkinson’s mistakes, and that was the focus of the winter window. A lot of this roster is still built by Wilkinson, but the top pieces have been acquired by Grabavoy. Phil Neville and Grabavoy have both referred to this team as a “project,” and there’s still plenty of building to go.
Congratulations to Claudio Bravo and his wife Michelle on the birth of their child this week. The new father will miss tomorrow’s match, and Marvin Loria is still rehabbing his injured knee. Every other player is healthy and available for selection.
During Friday’s press conference, I asked Neville about the back three. His response: “Jeremy, didn’t you ask me about this on Wednesday?” I did, in fact, ask him about it on Wednesday, and I can’t stop thinking about it. With Araujo back, the Timbers have to start tomorrow’s match with a back three. When the Peruvian was signed, I looked at his stint with FC Emmen in the Netherlands. While he was there, he was the right-sided center back in a back three. Since arriving in Portland, he has only played in a back four. It’s time to finally unlock Miguel Araujo tomorrow. Asprilla vs. Eric Miller is a serious debate for left wing-back, but I think Asprilla needs to be out there to give the Timbers a better chance at scoring first. Evander and Chara are back in the double pivot, while Rodriguez replaces Santiago Moreno and Antony slides over to the right. I have been harsh on Moreno as of late, but dropping him is purely for rest reasons. The Colombian has played the full 90 in both games this week. If he does come off the bench, hopefully he’ll be as angry as Rodriguez was on Wednesday.
Tactical Preview
Set Pieces
Because of the Loons’ proficiency on set pieces, the Timbers have to fight hard on every set piece opportunity. Against San Jose, Jeremy Ebobisse was unmarked, and Amahl Pellegrino was able to bundle in his rebounded header. Now that the Timbers have won a game, they need to be fully awake in order to defend every blade of grass during every moment of the game. The Timbers have been making mistake after mistake this year, but those mistakes always get punished on set pieces. Clean it up.
A Strong Start
I can only think of two strong first half road performances from the Timbers this season. The first was in Houston, but they conceded a goal on a stupid mistake. In Columbus, the Timbers took an early lead and defended it well for the rest of the first half. Both of those halves combine for a goal differential of 0. In their other 5 road matches, the Timbers’ first half goal differential is -8. They absolutely have to score the first goal tomorrow in order to get a result. And any result in this game is a good result considering the strength of the opposition and Portland’s putrid record in Minnesota. If they can mentally pick up where they left off at the end of the San Jose game, they will have a good chance of leaving Minnesota with a point. In 2024, the Loons are 2-3-1 at home. Last season, they were 4-9-4 at home. They have struggled to win at Allianz Field for the last two seasons. Portland has to show up early, because they can’t rely on second-half turnarounds anymore.
There are two keys to a fast start. The first one is simply shooting the ball. Portland has been incredible in front of goal, but they have to shoot often in order to keep scoring goals. There is a lot of individual talent on this team, and that talent can put the ball in the back of the net. You can’t score goals if you don’t shoot. The second one is an increase in tempo. During the first half of the San Jose game, the Timbers didn’t show any killer instinct or urgency. They played it safe. The most maddening instances of this occurred several times during that first half. Cross-field switches were open, but the Timbers instead used 3 passes to move the ball from side to side instead of a single long diagonal. Do not be afraid to take risks, even if you’re not at home.
Final Thoughts
Announcer Analytics
I’m no longer going to include the Timbers’ record when certain announcers are on the call, because that doesn’t impact the game. Tyler Terens and Kyndra de St. Aubin are the commentators in English, and John Laguna and Claudio Suarez are on the Spanish broadcast. This game is NOT FREE on Apple TV, and kickoff is scheduled for 5:30 PM Pacific time.
Referee Report
As we saw on Wednesday and several other times throughout this season, the referees do have an impact on the game. Jair Marrufo is the center ref tomorrow. He has never refereed a Portland-Minnesota game before. All stats courtesy of MLSRefStats on Twitter.
Confidence
If you have watched the Timbers since the defeat in Los Angeles three weeks ago, you could tell that this team lacked confidence. Jonathan Rodriguez arrived at the end of March, and Wednesday’s win was the first time he has won a game with his new team. I do not expect the Timbers to follow up their victory with another win. But I do want to see this team ready to play on the front foot from the moment the opening whistle sounds. If that happens, this team can truly begin to climb up the table. If not, the San Jose victory is a false dawn. Either way, the work will continue.
Nice write up! I'd go with the lineup like that, too, but I'd go Miller instead of Asprilla. Better D to start out and Asprilla is nice to have off the bench if you need some scoring punch. Zup said on the STF podcast that he wanted out because it wasn't good for the team to be paid so much and sit on the bench. Oh, and of course, be good and sit on the bench. So, I'm glad to see that work itself out, and I am happy to see Araujo back. That's a good back three. I'd like to see Bravo in that lineup, but I guess we'll have to wait. Looking forward to a positive result.