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Lefthanded49's avatar

In the preview article for this game, I posted that a 3-4-2-1 would be the best option, and I was excited to see that's what the team rolled out with. Given the available personnel and their skill sets, this. was the way to go. As NickG points out, this best suits Santi's game, and Da Costa. And it definitely fit Smith, who can work as an LB, but seems even better as a wing back because he is very offensive minded and skilled in that direction. Back four, no question Fory is way better defensively. It was just awesome to see the team own the midfield and run circles around them. This has to be the way it goes until Antony gets back, or just start Antony up top. That guy has forward chops, too, I'm thinking. (Sidenote: The caveat is that K. Miller starts in this lineup and he made a mistake, obviously, by leaving his feet. He get's beat over the top, yes, because he's ball watching, too. We've seen that before. The main mistake is leaving his feet. It's almost like he's trying too hard to protect the keeper, who had the near post covered because the angle initially was difficult. Let him take that shot.)

Speaking of up top. Kelsy did not cover himself in glory, and Mora did look lively in his minutes. We have a problem up there. Neither one is really outplaying the other. I like the potential in Kelsy, his bull rushing and occupying two defenders, whereas Mora doesn't seem real threatening. Mora seems more threatening coming off the bench. The problem here is that the alternating of forwards has done no one any favors, neither the two forwards, nor the other teammates. Chemistry hasn't been developed, no rhythm established. It could be too that even with regular minutes, one of them still wouldn't be effective. I'll give credit to Kelsy, who was involved in the very awesome team goal. That doesn't happen without his very nice flick to Moreno.

So what about Guerra, the goal guzzler? As Jeremy said, he changed the game. Another good game from him and maybe a goal, and perhaps he gets a starting nod in the future.

Moving forward, we have a tough stretch of games, and I hope this win gives the team something to build off and improve. I'd do the same thing against St. Louis - start with the 3-4-2-1 and go from there, bringing in Guerra later. If Kamal screws up again, then switch back to the four in the back with Guerra's entrance. I don't think Kamal screws up this bad again, though. Zup and Surman played badly last week after a long lay off, so I'll give Kamal a pass.

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"....on the right side with a wonderful diagonal ball over the top. This put Langoni in a 1v1 opportunity with Kamal Miller, and the young Argentine won that battle before firing his shot past Maxime Crepeau."

This happens too often. Thankfully, it isn't happening to McGraw anymore, thanks to Surman. We need to figure this out and do something about it. I'd prefer to sign a new CB than to forgo the high line. Maybe Ortiz continuing to improve can somewhat mitigate this risk. A sweeper keeper could also help, though that poses it's own risks, and Crepeau and Pantemis have both been good to great in other respects.

"The Revolution nearly took the lead two minutes later but Leo Campana sent his golden opportunity into the North End."

We can't count on these kinds of mistakes and shouldn't give up these opportunities. The game is different because NE couldn't finish. But their chances exposed our systemic problems.

On the other hand, we had out own missed chances with Kelsy not ready for prime time:

"A David Da Costa ground cross in the 34th should have led to that second goal, but Kevin Kelsy's attempt to strike the ball didn't result in any contact.

...repeated miscommunications with Kelsy"

Nor should we rely on Surman heroics:

"Langoni was suddenly rushing at goal, and Surman erased the threat with a perfect last-man tackle."

"Besides the obvious caveat of a relatively tame New England press?"

This is a huge caveat. We also shouldn't downplay how poorly New England has been playing, though I understand their recent and road form may counter this somewhat.

"I was skeptical about how playing with dual 10s would work out. But so many of these box entries came from the channels."

Moreno tends to tuck in anyway. We should just lean into this, especially since Mosquera is always bombing forward to provide width and Da Costa isn't usually taking shots from that zone.

That said, we should work toward a double pivot of Mosquera and Fory. "Mosquera is always given the freedom to get forward if necessary on the right, particularly in buildup." This makes us a little bit too predictable IMHO and it could give Surman a break once in a while. On the other hand, as long as Kamal is the left CB, I like our left back hanging back more to cover for him.

"Ortiz stayed higher than Ayala in buildup because the Timbers weren’t afraid to try the long ball today."

Yes! I said elsewhere (and it has been observed by others) that we need to try the long ball more often. I'm specifically talking about long passes into space and not just hoof and a prayer to the big man.

"And immense credit goes to Phil Neville for figuring it out."

I'll believe he's actually figured it out when it becomes a regular part of the system. For now, I'm crediting Guerra.

"...after a flick from Kevin Kelsy."

I thought the "not a back heel" was Kelsy and appreciate the clarification. I'll credit Kelsy for that flick though.

"...and the Timbers have just executed a merry-go-round of sorts."

We need to see this working more often as part of a plan or strategy. While I love that Neville wants the players to be free, I believe it should start with a foundation. They should have more patterns and plays to fall back on. We've had at least one good set piece goal from a play. Rules are meant to be broken but I think having that safety net would lead to less indecision and hesitancy in the attack. At the moment, it is hard to square my perception that we don't have rules with the players' tendencies to be static and not move off the ball enough, whether that to run into space or close passing lanes. I suspect there's an emphasis on maintaining shape and I know Phil has told the players not to go in (go to ground?) on challenges without backup. It's been too long since I saw that video from training to accurately remember and it may have been out of context. It's also hard to square maintaining shape with playing free, so maybe I don't know so many things.

"This reminds me of the nonsensical ring-around-the-rosie that the Kansas City Chiefs tried before the snap in a regular-season NFL game a couple seasons ago (I do not remember the exact game). Ayala now gets to act as the quarterback, and he’s about to have two receivers"

Please, please, please refrain from such analogies. This means nothing to many people and just detracts. Sorrynotsorry. Thank you.

"Portuguese Dave finds Big Kev, and the humongous Venezuelan instantly rolls it backwards with the bottom of his foot (ONCE AGAIN, NOT A BACKHEEL) into space for Moreno, who has continued his run."

There is the back heel I was talking about lol. So, credit to Kelsy for a smart play.

"All of these off-ball runs have come through the middle since Ayala got on the ball. The Timbers are being direct in possession, and it’s already glorious."

Yes, more of this please though, again, we shouldn't be so dependent on Ayala in attack.

"He sensed this opportunity, and it’s his turn to box-crash and save this glorious sequence."

Elsewhere I was unfairly stingy in not characterizing this as crashing the box because I was being overly-specific about confining that to zone 17 but I can clearly see now that Smith is in that space. Not sure why I thought he was outside the box.

"Last week I talked about the Timbers’ aversion towards passing the ball into space."

Gah. I incorrectly guessed/misremembed that it was Morrisonic. Maybe they've mentioned it too but I know it was your analysis I was thinking of, so credit where credit is due and my apologies for the misattribution elsewhere.

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