Creating the Timbers' Best XI

Despite their poor table position, the Timbers are still alive. They can still make the playoffs, but it will take a few changes.

Author’s Note: Both of my Seattle-based colleagues published an article about about last weekend’s draw at Lumen. To preserve the 2-2, I think it’s necessary for me to equalize. 

After publishing my recap of the Seattle match, I realized I spent too much energy on the overall metaphor that the match represented. I’m not apologizing for that because it needed to be put to paper. But in doing so, I missed some key points that definitely deserve discussion. Originally, I was going to include the bulk of my tactical analysis in the preview for the upcoming LAFC game. However, there is a lot to talk about, and it should be done in a more organized manner. We’ve now seen the Miles Joseph Timbers play 3 matches, and there are some noticeable changes from the Gio Timbers. Let’s dig in a little more and see if there’s a way to get a first-choice starting XI that works in the 4-3-3.

Let me start off by saying that I’m still a back-three believer.  When the Timbers had two weeks off between the Monterrey loss and the Houston loss, I thought it could provide enough time to switch the formation and get players trained in it. But the coaching staff didn’t want to switch to a back three, and opted to go to the 4-3-3 instead. Last season, in the August 26 Cascadia Cup-clinching match against Seattle, Gio lined the team up in a back five. Entering that game, the Timbers were winless in 5 and had just gotten ran off the pitch 4-1 in Kansas City. After being down 3-0 at halftime, Savarese decided to completely switch it up. He brought in Bill Tuiloma and Zac McGraw to form a back five and subbed in Dairon Asprilla to join Sebastian Blanco up top. That was the first time we saw the Timbers truly use the back five as a positive tactic and not just as a way to kill a game off. Did it work? Well, the Timbers were already in a three-goal hole, and the second half scoring ended at 1-1. But Gio liked what he saw. Five days later, at home, the Sounders game opened up with 5 defenders. Here’s what the Timbers’ starting lineup looked like that day:

Last season, Gio used Yimmi Chara as his ultimate Swiss Army knife. He played in the defensive midfield at Nashville, and he played right wing back against Seattle. Normally you would find him on the wing or at the 10, but Gio found a way to get him involved no matter what the plan called for. Did it work? Well, kind of. The Timbers did win their next four matches, and Dairon Asprilla became the biggest beneficiary of the switch. But it still wasn’t enough to get the team into the playoffs. This summer presented an optimal opportunity to convert last season’s experiment into a true back three. Miguel Araujo looked like the necessary piece to make it work. If I was to speculate on their thought process, I think they were thinking about how to maximize Evander’s ability, and they thought the formation he used in Denmark would help unlock him to become a true threat. They had their chance to implement the back three, and it didn’t come. It won’t come this season because it’s too late to fully implement a new tactical identity. Joseph has also stated his intentions to stick with the 4-3-3. Tough scenes for us back-three believers. But Joseph might be cooking, and there’s one adjustment he made during the Seattle match that has me thinking.

Let’s take a look at the starting lineup from last weekend one more time:

This is the lineup that got completely outplayed in the first half and up to the moment when the substitutes entered. Despite being up a man for almost 15 minutes, it looked like nothing had changed. Miller has struggled at left back even though he’s very solid on the right. Mosquera kept leaving acres of space for Leo Chu. That’s just the defense. The midfield was a disaster. This has been a common theme for the Timbers this season, even before the 4-3-3 became the main formation. With a pivot of Paredes and Chara, the midfield was defensively sound. It led to the team picking up 6 clean sheets in 10 matches. But they weren’t progressing the ball effectively. Bad ball progression kills the buildup, and an already unproductive group of forwards now had less chances to spring attacks. Moving to the 4-3-3 made the midfield worse. Paredes was moved farther up the pitch, which negatively affected his defensive work. As a result, the midfield became butter. This was most obvious against Houston, when the midfield melted at the moment the game kicked off. Yes, Diego Chara and Zac McGraw were absent, but Diego’s absence was known for weeks. The midfield had no right being that bad in that game. Against Seattle, the midfield continued to fail in both aspects. The progression aspect was the most glaring issue. Evander, Diego, and Paredes seemed to not understand the spaces they were supposed to be occupying. This led to a bunch of instances where the midfielders would be in the same spaces, leaving plenty of open turf for Sounders players to occupy. Sometimes, two midfielders would converge on a loose ball and NEITHER ONE would be able to control it. This also manifested in one of them taking the ball, but immediately losing possession or playing a bad pass. It’s clear that the Evander-Paredes-Diego midfield isn’t working. Yimmi Chara was an instant turnover or badly played pass. Mora couldn’t finish and doesn’t offer anything in the pressing game. It was clear that subs could have been made earlier, but Joseph waited until the 67th minute to bring on his substitutes. We all know the rest of the story. But the team looked competent and even good for stretches. There is an asterisk that the Sounders were playing down a man, but we’ve seen this team look good against RSL while at even strength. So what changed and what can the Timbers learn from it?

This is about the Timbers’ setup going forward, not just for this upcoming week against LAFC. It already won’t apply to the LAFC game because Mosquera, Araujo, and Acosta will be with their respective national teams. But through three games, we are already seeing glimpses of a competent Timbers team that can win matches under Miles Joseph. One player, in particular, has the potential to carry us into the playoffs. He’s been absent on the stat sheet for most of the season, but the best wins of the season have come when he’s playing his best soccer (all except one). His name has been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons. You know who he is.

*Totally worth the yellow card, by the way.*

Santiago Moreno’s defining moment in 2023 is still that transfer request. While I do think it was mostly motivated by his contract, there is one piece of it that has still stuck with me. In texts obtained by The Oregonian, Moreno didn’t just express anger at his financial situation and his coach. He specifically said he was unhappy with the position he was playing in the Timbers’ system. Well, his old coach is gone, but he’s largely played in the same role on the right wing. Against Monterrey, he lined up as a 10 and played really well. He created 4 chances which was the most in the entire match. That got me thinking about his possible place in the XI if the Timbers switched to a back three. Maybe if he did play more centrally he could be even more effective. Since Miles Joseph took over, he’s played in the middle twice. Both times he positively impacted the game. But it wasn’t as a 10. He was an 8. 

Moreno entered the Vancouver match as a substitute for Dairon Asprilla on the right wing in the 66th minute. But he didn’t move centrally until Antony replaced Cristhian Paredes in the 79th. He played alongside Evander and played the line-breaking pass that Claudio Bravo used to tee up Evander for the Timbers’ second goal. Those types of passes in the final third are something the Timbers have DESPERATELY been craving this season. In addition to his passing ability, he’s also been a very capable presser. Against Seattle, Moreno shifted inside after Dairon Asprilla entered the match. From the minute that change occurred, the Timbers tied the game and looked poised to grab a winner. However, Moreno was exhausted after running his ass off for the entire game. The Timbers weren’t incredibly active in possession, but Moreno was pressing all over his area of the field. Joseph likes his 8s to join in the high press along with his striker. Santi was doing everything Joseph wants his 8s to do, and he ran himself ragged trying to complete the comeback. So, even if Santi isn’t playing his natural position, he’s still positively impacting the game. It’s also pretty valid to say that he’s offering more as an 8 than Cristhian Paredes is. That could be the positional switch he’s been looking for. He has the creative ability of a 10 and the energy of an 8. We’re starting to cook with fire, but there’s now another question to be answered: who takes his place on the right wing?

The Timbers have 5 Colombians on the team. Whenever the team takes the field for warmups, I always look at the passing triangles they form to loosen up before the stretching begins. The Colombian Corner always makes me smile. Moreno, both Charas, Mosquera, and Dairon Asprilla knock the ball around for about 2-3 minutes before they split and join their respective groups (starters or bench). It’s clear that all 5 of them have formed a solid group. What the Timbers need on the right wing is another Colombian to take Moreno’s spot. 

The place in Timbers lore occupied by Dairon Asprilla is unique. The only remaining players on the roster from the 2015 MLS Cup winners are him and Diego Chara. He hates the Seattle Sounders. He is a shining example of what it means to be a Portland Timber. You could make a top 5 all-time Timbers goals and Dairon could fill all 5. And, like a perfectly timed clock, he always performs in the season’s later months. The bells are tolling. It’s Dairon Asprilla’s time.

His chemistry with his Colombian teammates and his uncanny ability to show up in the biggest moments makes him the perfect solution to fill the right wing spot vacated by Moreno. There is another specific task I would love to see him perform. Moreno and Mosquera have fantastic chemistry, and Moreno can shift a little wider in possession much like Evander does on the left side of the formation. That would push Asprilla inside where he can offer an aerial threat that the Timbers don’t have at the striker position. Yes, Felipe Mora is incredible at timing his jumps to put headers on frame. But he’s not as physical as Dairon. His presence can also occupy defenders to open up more space for Moreno and Mosquera (they need a nickname). But he can also stay wide and combine with his two compatriots to create more chances. His physical nature also lends itself well to the press. In all phases of the game, he’s a perfect right winger for Joseph’s tactics. 

That’s two positions figured out, and there are still two more positions in the attack that need a reset. Let’s start with the striker position because I think it’s the easiest one to figure out. Franck Boli and Felipe Mora are both excellent players, but one of them is better suited to starting while the other is an ideal finisher. Franck Boli always brings the energy. He has a tireless work rate and his hustle makes him a very capable presser. In the Seattle game, Mora didn’t offer any of the pressure that was needed for the Timbers to force the Sounders into mistakes. With all that time, Seattle was able to pick their spots and often break two lines of defense with a single pass, immediately putting the Timbers on the back foot. Boli is also very technically gifted. While his finishing has been lacking in the past couple of months, there’s reason to believe he can score whenever he gets on the pitch. He has some great chemistry with Evander as well. He’s also very smart; often making off-ball runs to open space in the box. Start him and then sub him off around the 70-75th minute. That’s where Mora comes in. He’s fantastic at recognizing the space around the box and he can take advantage of tired center backs leaving some of that space open. He’s also still recovering from his surgery even though he’s starting games again. I don’t want to risk his health and his availability for next season by aggravating his knee. He’s on a very team-friendly contract and will be a crucial part of squad planning in this upcoming offseason. Bringing Mora on as a substitute not only sets him up for success in the present, but also helps this team plan for the future.

The left wing spot is a little murky. New signing Antony primarily played on the left in Portugal, and I expect him to be fully ready to stake his claim to the position next season. It doesn’t rule him out for this season, but he’s going to need a little more time to settle. Who knows, he could earn a starting role this season. But I’m not banking on it. The organization is very high on him, saying that he’s the fastest player they’ve ever had. I like the sound of that, but he still needs time to settle. 

That leaves three possible wingers to fill one spot. The best choice is Sebastian Blanco. Not only does he have the fire the team desperately needs on the field, but he’s been very solid on the wing this year. Yimmi Chara’s best role is off the bench. I still think he can provide something to this team, but it’s as a super sub. Bringing him in to run at tired fullbacks seems like the best recipe for his success. Marvin Loria also works as a sub in that mold. Yimmi can play on either the right or left, while Marvin’s one-footedness is much better suited to the left wing. If Blanco can’t start, I would rather see Loria start instead of Yimmi. Or Antony. This year was supposed to be a massive prove-it year for Yimmi. Even though he’s been injured, he’s also been a huge let-down. Let him play to his strengths. He’s better on the right wing to begin with. 

Moreno’s move to the midfield drops Cristhian Paredes out of the lineup. It is really unfortunate, but it’s a better suit for the team’s tactical identity. Paredes is such a good ball-winner. Since the team switched to the 4-3-3, Paredes’ performances have been subpar. That’s not his fault, but the coaching staff is trying to cram a square peg into a round hole. Maybe more time training with the midfield and allowing it to become fluid might help, but this team is completely serious about mounting a playoff run. This means that they can’t afford to sit back and wait for the goals to come. They have to be aggressive in the attack to grab leads and then hold on to them. Paredes won’t be hung out to dry, but he does have a role to play. He can become a defensive option off the bench. Paredes started this season on the bench, before injuries to Eryk Williamson and David Ayala pushed him into the starting lineup. In the 4-1 victory over Seattle, he became a supersub, entering in the 66th minute and getting an assist while helping to keep the Timbers solid defensively. His fresh legs can help this team both grow their lead and protect it. I know this is a controversial choice, but it’s necessary to win games. 

Claudio Bravo and Juan Mosquera have to figure out their balance. I’m OK with both of them getting forward, but Mosquera is weaker defensively. He’s also key to the attacking strength of the right side I just created. Bravo’s best non-defensive strength is his dribbling. Mosquera is better at combining, Bravo is the better dribbler. This can allow Bravo to only move forward with the ball and playing a pass that can start an attack. The key is not letting him get too far forward, because that’s where the troubles begin to occur. A better midfield that isn’t so turnover-prone would also help him. Eric Miller would be the closer, coming on as a substitute to help protect leads. Pretty straightforward.

There isn’t a lot to talk about with the center backs because it’s a very settled position. Same thing with the goalkeepers. I think Bingham and Ivacic are basically a coin flip at this point, but Bingham is better with his distribution. I also think Bingham is better at communicating. Two settled positions that won’t change with this new setup.

Here’s what that lineup looks like (with subs):

Now the question begs: how realistic is this? Will the coaching staff actually implement this? I think this would be hard for them to implement immediately, but we could see a lineup like this before the season ends. The Timbers need to be starting games on the front foot, and this lineup provides them with a way to stay both defensively solid and an improvement to the attack. I’ve heard at every press conference that the playoffs are still the goal. With only nine matches left in the season, it’s doubtful that the Timbers can climb the table playing the same way they have been in the past week. I think this is the key to getting the Timbers fully onto the front foot in games. I wouldn’t be upset if Paredes stayed in the lineup, but he has to get better at progressing the ball. Going out on a limb like this is risky, but I wouldn’t be doing it if I wasn’t 100% confident in my reasoning. 

Let’s dig deeper into some stats to further illustrate how important it is for the Timbers to score first. Across all competitions, the Timbers are 8-2-4 when they score first. Two of those losses occurred in the Open Cup and Leagues Cup, likewise with two of those victories. That’s a record of 6-2-2 in MLS play. How much worse does it get when the Timbers concede first? They are 1-2-11 when they allow the first goal. The only non-MLS result in that grouping is the Monterrey loss. The only win is the 4-1 Seattle victory. In order to climb this table in an incredibly weak Western Conference, the Timbers need to be grabbing that first goal. If they can’t do that, there’s no hope for playoffs. I can’t give up on the team while they’re still alive in the playoff hunt. Neither will these players, and they need to be put in a position that will help them accomplish their goal.