Colorado Rapids-Portland Timbers Preview (8/1)

The Timbers return from the international break, and they have a point to prove.

After two weeks of watching nostalgic player compilations and getting reacquainted with the NFL (ugh), the international break is over. Major League Soccer returns this weekend, and the Portland Timbers are about to enter Gauntlet Week.

The Rapids Report

On Thursday, Phil Neville said that the Colorado Rapids are “one of the teams of the season.” He also praised head coach Chris Armas and said that the first-year Rapids manager should be the Coach of the Year. It’s very hard to disagree with either of Neville’s assessments. 

The 2023 Colorado Rapids finished 5 points ahead of Spoon-winning Toronto. In 2024, the Rapids are 13-5-9 (44 points) and are 4th in the West and 7th in the Shield. During Leagues Cup, they caught fire. That campaign opened with a 4-0 loss to the Timbers. But they took advantage of some very generous scheduling. Three Liga MX teams (Leon, Juarez, and Toluca) all fell to the Rapids in Commerce City. After beating Club America on penalties, they qualified for the semifinals. A 4-0 loss to LAFC followed, but the Rapids beat Philadelphia on penalties in the 3rd-place game. That booked a spot in CCC for Colorado; their first berth in that competition since 2022. This season is already a massive success for the Rapids. Rafael Navarro leads the team with 13 MLS goals. Centerpiece DP Djordje Mihailovic has 10g/7a. Box-to-box midfielder Cole Bassett has 9g/6a in a breakout campaign. And now reinforcements are coming. Former USMNT right back Reggie Cannon has arrived on a free transfer after a turbulent spell in Europe. But the summer transfer window also saw a major departure. Moise Bombito joined OGC Nice in France for a club-record windfall of $7.7 million. Since Leagues Cup ended, the Rapids stormed back from a 2-1 deficit in Dallas and won 3-2. They look like a legitimate contender and are performing like a legitimate contender.

Before the Leagues Cup match against the Rapids in August, I took aim at their fraudulent underlying numbers.

All of these critiques are still valid. Against Dallas, one of their three goals was a rebound off of a missed penalty. The Rapids have generated the 13th-most non-penalty xG per 90. Zack Steffen still has a bottom two PSxG differential. The American goalkeeper was outstanding in Leagues Cup, but reverted to his usual self in their matchup against Dallas. It is also worth noting how favorable their Leagues Cup pathway was. They hosted 3 of their 7 games, and technically played Club America in “neutral” Los Angeles. In MLS play, the Rapids are 8-3-2 at home. They are 5-2-7 on the road. Now they get to host the Timbers, who have beaten them twice with a combined goal differential of -7. This is a huge opportunity for the Rapids to certify their top-4 credentials.

Sam Vines and Kevin Cabral will miss tomorrow’s game due to injury. 

Vines’ absence is a big blow for the Rapids. Youngsters Jackson Travis and Sebastian Anderson will compete to start on the left. Eventually, I believe that Rosenberry could find himself at left back, but that depends on the health and availability of Reggie Cannon. Cannon only signed this week, and has been without a club since mid-August. I don’t think he’ll be ready to start right away, but I do expect him to make his Rapids debut from the bench tomorrow. The front four is pretty settled, but Omir Fernandez could start in place of either winger. Oliver Larraz has become a key contributor in the midfield, but Bassett and Ronan are simply better than him. After the departure of Bombito, Lalas Abubakar has earned the starting role at right center-back. Given the injuries, this is the best lineup the Rapids can field. Their next game is a midweek trip to Kansas City, so this game is a lot more important. They cannot afford to rotate.

The Timbers Report

It has been a busy two weeks since the Timbers defeated the Seattle Sounders 1-0 on August 31st. Since that game, if you listen to national MLS pundits, you might believe that there’s a little bit of trouble in paradise.

Keeping an eye on the national media is exhausting. At some points, their analysis begs the question, “Do they even watch the games?” Matt Doyle of the Mothership releases a weekly recap article about each game around the league. These are worth reading to get the pulse of what the national perception is about the team. Phil Neville took to the podium and several of his comments caught Doyle’s attention. Here’s what he wrote in response:

I don’t take any issue with Doyle’s analysis of this quote from Neville. Somebody did get a message sent to them with Neville’s response, and that’s perfectly fine. However, something happened in the past week which changed Doyle’s opinion of this quote.

On Monday, Tom Bogert of GiveMeSport published an article reporting a rejected $9M bid for Evander from an unnamed Qatari club. I’m not going to get into this situation right now (I’ll cover it in my Summer Transfer Window Recap, which is coming soon). However, according to Bogert, Evander missed training last Saturday. He was back in training on Tuesday and trained in full on Thursday. The Timbers have also extended a contract extension to Evander in the neighborhood of $3.5 million per year. But due to the fact that he missed training on Saturday, Doyle began to re-interpret Neville’s comments after the Seattle game. Suddenly, Neville’s quote (which sounds a lot like him praising his players who were on the pitch and nothing more) is a dig at Felipe Mora and Jonathan Rodriguez. Both of them were suspended for the Seattle game. I’d like to wonder what kind of mental gymnastics you have to do to arrive at that conclusion. It is also worth noting that Evander recently became a father and that could be a reason for his absence on Saturday. Doyle’s comments are from the most recent episode of ExtraTime Radio. Once again, it’s more proof that the national pundits don’t really pay attention to this team. Portland Timbers vs. America, like always.

That last sentiment got taken to another level this past week, but it literally played out on the soccer field instead of in the media. The Timbers had four players on international duty and two of them faced the USMNT in friendly matches. Maxime Crepeau started for Canada against the USMNT and made 4 saves in Canada’s 2-1 victory. However, the term “Timbers vs USA” got taken to a new level in the USMNT’s second friendly match. Finn Surman started for New Zealand and had a solid performance before getting subbed out in the 74th minute with some leg cramps. However, before he exited the game, he had a new CB partner. Bill Tuiloma hasn’t had a great time in Charlotte since his trade there in February 2023. But for 8 brief minutes in Cincinnati, both New Zealand center backs were current or former Timbers. The Kiwis ended up tying the USMNT 1-1 in their final match under interim manager (and future San Diego FC manager) Mikey Varas in his last game before Mauricio Pochettino takes over. Elsewhere, Kamal Miller only saw 6 minutes of game time across 2 games for Canada. Miguel Araujo played the full 90 in both of Peru’s World Cup Qualifying matches. I’m pretty happy to see Araujo back in the Peru setup after his last appearance in Copa America saw him get sent off. This Timbers International update has been brought to you by Tillamook Fireside S’mores ice cream, which really needs to return to store shelves in the near future.

Claudio Bravo is the only player on the injury report. According to Neville, he picked up a knock in training this week and was “50/50” on Thursday. However, he will miss tomorrow’s game with a lower leg injury. Marvin Loria is off the report for the first time since August 1st. The MLS Disciplinary Committee removed one game from Felipe Mora’s 2-game red card suspension during the international break, so he will be available for selection. Evander and Dario Zuparic are on yellow card warnings. 

I’m going to do a deeper dive later in this article about Portland’s upcoming week, but they cannot afford to rotate for this game. Bravo’s absence should push Kamal Miller out to left back, and either Miguel Araujo or Zac McGraw will partner Dario Zuparic at center back. Because Colorado is very good on set pieces and Araujo played a lot of soccer during the international break, I think McGraw gets the start tomorrow night. Mora and Rodriguez will return from their suspensions and should slot right into the starting lineup. Load management and the effects of altitude will be crucial for this game, so I expect Cristhian Paredes and Eryk Williamson will see some minutes. Ditto for Antony, who has 4 goals in 3 games against Colorado.

Tactical Preview

The Road Timbers

Portland hasn’t won on the road since June 19th. That number is a bit misleading, but the Timbers have lost their past three home games in all competitions. During each of those games, the Timbers have conceded three goals. Simply put, Portland does not play on the road like they do at home. This has resulted in a 3-3-7 road record. However, their goal differential is -4. They cannot stop conceding bad goals on the road. In their last match against Seattle, they did give up chances, but they managed the big moments. It’s almost impossible to control a game on the road, so the Timbers will have to bend but not break against the Rapids. 3 of their next 4 games are on the road and all of those games are against playoff teams. Tomorrow, the Timbers don’t have to run Colorado off the pitch. They just have to manage the big moments and play a solid game of soccer. Sounds easy enough, right?

Final Thoughts

Announcer Analytics

Mark Rogondino and Heath Pearce are on the call in English, while John Laguna and Claudio Suarez will be the Spanish commentators. This match is NOT FREE on Apple TV, and kickoff is scheduled for 6:30 PM PST.

Referee Report

Filip Dujic will be the center referee tomorrow. He hasn’t officiated a Timbers game in 2024 yet.

2024 stats: 13 matches, 24.77 fouls/game, 0.38 penalties/game, 4.08 yellows/game, 0.31 reds/game

Series History

Portland has a 14-7-10 record against the Rapids in MLS play. Their record at Dick’s Sporting Goods Park is 3-4-8, with their last win coming in the 2021 Western Conference Semifinals.

Table Talk

This upcoming week is going to be the most difficult one of the Timbers’ season. 4th place in the Western Conference is up for grabs, and there are 5 teams in the hunt for it. Out of those five (Colorado, Seattle, Vancouver, Houston, and Portland) the Timbers are the only one that has to play 3 of the top 4 teams in the league during this week. Colorado has Portland at home and then a trip to SKC before closing the week at home against Toronto. Seattle only plays twice and both of them are home games against SKC and San Jose. Vancouver hosts San Jose before traveling to Houston and Carson. Houston hosts RSL and Vancouver before making a quick road trip to Austin. For the Timbers, they have to step up to the plate and run the gauntlet. RSL, meanwhile, is only 3 points ahead of 4th place. Nothing in the West is set in stone. The Portland Timbers have to win in Colorado if they want to have any hope of controlling their own destiny. This is their opportunity to announce themselves as contenders.