Club Leon-Portland Timbers Preview (7/28)

Can the Timbers get off to a hot start in Leagues Cup?

Leagues Cup is here, and the Timbers are actually participating in this tournament (unlike a certain Cup that is Open). Before I get into tomorrow’s opponent, it’s time for the fully correct take on Leagues Cup.

Co-Existence

Two things about Leagues Cup are true: it is a very fun tournament and MLS has prioritized it over the Open Cup. Let’s begin with point number two first. Open Cup exists as additional games during the course of the league season, while the entire season pauses so Leagues Cup can happen. If you decided to manage a MLS club on Football Manager (yes, this is a relevant argument even though it is a video game) the season does not pause for Leagues Cup. In FM, Leagues Cup games are treated like normal cup games. It’s very interesting. Because no Leagues Cup games are held in Mexico, Liga MX teams go on a grand tour of the United States to play competitive matches during this tournament. This is a problem. Let’s take a look at what Monterrey did last year. They made it the farthest in the tournament out of any Mexican team, and the travel took quite a toll on them. 

July 26th: Salt Lake City

July 30th: Seattle

August 4th: Portland

August 8th: Houston

August 11th: Los Angeles

August 15th: Nashville

August 19th: Philadelphia

That is a period of 24 days. In that time, Monterrey traveled to seven different cities and played seven games of soccer. The miles began to add up, but I’m going to calculate the true toll by the time zone jumps. They started in Mountain time, then spent a week in Pacific time before heading to Central time. Then a week of literal hell. From Central time, they went back to Pacific before traveling to Eastern time. They gained an hour, then lost two, then gained two, and then lost three to close out the tournament. No team should be subjected to that kind of f***ery while having to play competitive matches. In addition to match exhaustion, with several of these matches occurring 4 days after another, they had to battle against America’s 4 time zones. If Leagues Cup matches are only going to be played in the States, the tournament could switch to a midweek format. MLS teams and Liga MX teams are not strangers to playing midweek matches. However, I doubt that the powers-that-be are willing to make that switch. 

Don Garber’s main argument against the Open Cup is “schedule congestion.” I do believe that schedule congestion is a serious problem, but it doesn’t hold as much weight in regards to the Open Cup. It is a separate tournament from MLS, and teams should be able to have the option to rotate their squads. Leagues Cup does generate more money for MLS and Liga MX teams, so this tournament is here to stay. But there are ways to make Open Cup and Leagues Cup co-exist. Personally, there are way too many MLS games already. Portland doesn’t need to play Seattle and Vancouver three times each year. But I doubt that the league would limit the schedule in order to fit Open Cup into the schedule. Several supporters’ groups (Austin and St. Louis being the most notable) have openly stated their intentions to boycott Leagues Cup games this year. That’s perfectly reasonable. I believe that this tournament is a very fun competition, and I believe the same about the Open Cup. There are ways to tweak the formatting in order to allow both competitions to exist. However, it’s very clear that MLS is shirking their responsibility with the Open Cup to allow Leagues Cup to thrive. This tournament is not a bad thing. If anything, it’s a very good idea that has provided some very entertaining matches. It’s good for MLS for this tournament to continue. But it’s also good for MLS to elevate the Open Cup. They’ve done a terrible job of marketing Open Cup matches, and they keep on making excuses that (in their minds) justify their lack of investment. Both can be done, but only one tournament has money coming in from Liga MX fans. 

The Leon Report

In 2023, Club Leon lifted the CONCACAF Champions League trophy after defeating LAFC over two legs in the final. Since then, they have changed their badge (very Aston Villa and Chelsea-esque) and have continued to be a mid-table Mexican team. The head coach who led them to a continental title (Nicolas Larcamon) took the head coaching job at Brazilian side Cruzeiro last winter. Former Liverpool (the Uruguayan one) head coach Jorge Bava took over to replace him. Leon’s top player, Federico Vinas, tore his Achilles on international duty in May. As a result, Leon have started the 2024 Apertura season with a 0-3-1 record. The loss was a 4-1 drubbing in Mexico City against Pumas, while the three draws came against Pachuca, Puebla, and Necaxa. They haven’t won a competitive match since April 20th against Monterrey. That was only 6 matches ago, and they haven’t won in their 5 matches since.

Vinas is hurt, and right back Ivan Moreno is doubtful. There isn’t an official injury report for this game, but this is the best I can do.

Speaking of “the best that I can do,” here is my prediction for Leon’s starting lineup tomorrow. Bava has utilized a back three with two wingbacks during his time in charge. I would like to highlight four names on this team. The first is Fidel Ambriz, who was on the 2023 CCL-winning squad and played an important role. The second is former Tigres forward Nicolas Lopez, who played against the Timbers in last season’s Leagues Cup. The third is striker Jhonder Cadiz, who was a high-profile flop in Nashville before resurrecting his career in Portugal. The third is Mexico’s all-time leader in international appearances: Andres Guardado. This Leon team is dangerous, and there’s a lot of big-game experience in this side. 

The Timbers Report

The Portland Timbers want to win this tournament. There are CCL spots on the line, and Diego Chara is eager to return to the top continental competition that America has to offer. After a very tough end to their 2023 Leagues Cup, Portland is back in this tournament with a vengeance. 

Throughout the 2024 season, all the Timbers have wanted is respect. It has been hard to come by, and it is still largely non-existent, but the Timbers did get an All-Star this year! Evander was invited to Columbus to play in the MLS All-Star Game and partake in the Skills Challenge. Well, he did partake in the Skills Challenge, but he didn’t do that much. He participated in three events and provided service in two of them. But that wasn’t the biggest insult of the night. Since it was just a Skills Challenge, every player wore their current number. Except Evander, who wore number 20. Every other player on the pitch wore their current number. I usually don’t watch any of the All-Star events unless a Timber is competing, and I was dumbfounded at how boring the Skills Challenge was. It is a good idea on paper, but the execution of the event left a lot to be desired. Luckily Evander started the All-Star Game so I could turn it off once he got subbed off 25 minutes in. I’m happy to see more Timbers getting league-wide recognition, but good LORD every single All-Star event was boring.

Mason Toye joined the team this week, and is really excited to play in Portland’s dynamic attack. “I want to add my little spin to it,” Toye said on Friday. He joined two former teammates (Kamal Miller and James Pantemis) from his time in Montreal, and he spent some time with Eric Miller in Minnesota. “When I found out I was coming here, I was jumping for joy.” Toye is ready to “get out there.” This could prove to be a massive trade for the Timbers. I’ve been saying for months that they really needed to find a backup striker this summer and Toye has arrived for a bag of peanuts. 

No injuries to report. Phil Neville said that David Ayala “trained in full” this week. Marvin Loria played 59 minutes for T2 against SKC2 this week. Portland is entering this tournament at full strength.

Is this Phil Neville’s best eleven? I think it is. Crepeau is back after some Green Card shenanigans and should make his first start for the Timbers since June 1st. Bravo and Mosquera are locked in at the fullback spots. I think that the best center back pairing is Miller and Zuparic. Araujo has certainly made his case over the past couple weeks, but Miller and Zuparic have been unstoppable when they’ve played together. Ayala’s return will be immense. The team seriously missed him against the Galaxy last week. No changes are needed to the front four. I think Toye makes his Timbers debut as a sub. With the entire roster available, it’s time to see what the full-strength Timbers can do against a quality Mexican team.

Tactical Preview

The Dark Arts

Liga MX teams specialize in the “dark arts” of soccer. They’re very good at all of the little things (tactical fouls, quick restarts) that can turn losses into draws and draws into wins. In order for the Timbers to win this game, they have to match the intensity but not get carried away. Evander famously fell victim to the dark arts last year in this tournament, and it proved to be disastrous. Portland was able to match the intensity of both Liga MX teams that they played last year, so they will have to do the same tomorrow. Liga MX veterans Jonathan Rodriguez and Felipe Mora will be key to tomorrow’s match for their leadership, not just their ability. 

Final Thoughts

Portland and Leon have never played a competitive match against each other. Tomorrow’s match kicks off at 7:30 PM (probably 7:55 PM) and will be telecast on FS1 and Apple TV.

There are only two games in the group stage, and the Timbers host both. This is the ultimate advantage, and the Timbers have to get off to the right start. Their opener is winnable, but they have to execute. I could use this section to talk about what could await the Timbers should they advance from their group, but it’s useless to get into. Nothing is given to this team. They will have to earn it.