Charlotte FC-Portland Timbers Preview (5/4)

The brutal road trip is almost over. Can the Timbers end their toughest stretch of the season with a win?

It has been almost two months since the Portland Timbers won a game of soccer. Their next chance to break the 7-game winless streak is a trip to a place that they’ve never been to face an opponent that they’ve never played.

The Charlotte Report

Time for a quick history lesson. In 2018, David Tepper bought the Carolina Panthers. After becoming a full owner for the first time, Tepper immediately wanted more. So he launched an expansion bid for a new Charlotte MLS team the next year. The bid got accepted, and Charlotte FC began play in 2022. 

Their first season was marked by inconsistency. Despite drawing huge crowds, they finished 9th in the East. After the season, tragedy struck. Center back Anton Walkes was jet-skiing in Miami when a boat struck his vehicle, killing him. This loss left a hole in the locker room and in the roster. This facilitated a trade. Bill Tuiloma arrived via trade from Portland. The Kiwi Maldini started 15 games and made 2 substitute appearances but couldn’t nail down a starting spot. But head coach Christian Lattanzio guided them to the playoffs with a 9th-place finish in the East. Their maiden playoff voyage ended with humiliation, losing 5-2 to the Red Bulls in the wild-card game. The famously patient Tepper decided to make some changes in the offseason.

Out went Lattanzio, and in came Dean Smith. I am not a fan of Dean Smith, but it’s not his fault. He’s just a guy trying to do his job, and unfortunately part of that job was knocking West Bromwich Albion out of the playoffs as manager of Aston Villa in 2019 (Dwight Gayle’s suspension in the second leg of that playoff tie changed the entire trajectory of Aston Villa Football Club and I will die on that hill). After getting sacked by Villa in November 2021, he took over at Norwich and got relegated. In December of 2022, Smith got sacked again and ended up taking over Leicester in a bid to keep them in the Premier League. That didn’t happen, and Smith left Leicester in June 2023. He remained unemployed for six months before Charlotte hired him in December.

The Crown made a bunch of moves this offseason. Derrick Jones, Justin Meram, and Harrison Afful left the club. They also opened two DP slots by transferring disappointing winger Kamil Jozwiak to Granada and loaning centerpiece forward Karol Swiderski to Hellas Verona. The other 2023 DP, Enzo Copetti, remained on the roster. Those other DP spots were filled by midseason signing Brecht Dejaegere and new signing Liel Abada. Most of their other additions came from their MLS NEXTPro team, but they did add midfielder Djibril Diani from Caen in the winter. Two former Timbers came to North Carolina in the offseason: David Bingham and Miles Joseph. Bingham is the new backup goalkeeper and Joseph is the new associate head coach under Smith. 

The season has started as expected for Charlotte. They’re 3-2-5 (11E/20S) with 11 points and a -3 goal differential. I didn’t expect them to challenge for a playoff spot unless certain things broke in their favor. They’re only averaging 1 goal per game, which is equal to other struggling attacks like Nashville and Dallas. Abada has only played 5 matches, and Copetti hasn’t scored in 8 matches so far. Youngster Patrick Agyemang has been starting games for the Crown as of late. He is tied with Kerwin Vargas for the team lead in goals with 2. No one on the team has more than 1 assist. They’re underperforming their non-penalty xG by 1.5 goals. Creating chances is a serious struggle. Charlotte is averaging 6.6 key passes per 90, which is the third-worst mark in the league. Their new pieces (particularly Abada) still need some time to gel, but this attack is not good.

Defensively, they’ve been pretty OK. Despite only keeping 2 clean sheets, they aren’t conceding a ton of chances. This is mostly due to their main strategy under Dean Smith: sit back and counter. It’s tough to really praise anything this team is doing because nothing they do really inspires confidence. Their own fans are disappointed. This isn’t a good team, and there isn’t a true danger man that should trouble Portland this weekend.

Normally, there would be a danger man, but Kerwin Vargas (their best player in 2024) will miss this game due to yellow card accumulation. Brandon Cambridge and Ben Bender are also out. Liel Abada and Bill Tuiloma are questionable with thigh injuries.

This is the “worst-case scenario” lineup for Charlotte. Vargas and Abada are their best wingers. Tavares will be in the starting lineup no matter what. But if Abada isn’t cleared to start, Dejaeghere will probably get the start on the left. Another possible switch could be Copetti on the wing, but I think that’s highly unlikely. Copetti is barely hanging on to his starting job and could be benched for Patrick Agyemang up top. Charlotte is very weak in attack. But there are plenty of midfield options to choose from. Westwood is the captain, Urso was solid in last week’s loss at Yankee Stadium, and Diani is the best holding midfielder on the team. Scott Arfield should return to the squad, but I doubt that he starts. The back four is pretty settled, but I think Lindsey gets the start at right back instead of Nathan Byrne. Kahlina is Charlotte’s best player. Like I said earlier, there really isn’t anything particularly scary about this Charlotte squad.

The Timbers Report

On Tuesday, Phil Neville spoke to an assembled group of reporters in the rain at the Timbers Training Facility. “We’ve been receiving a lot of plaudits for the way we attack. To be honest, right after the game on Saturday, the first thing I thought about was ‘I’m getting fed up with that.’ I want people to praise us for winning games of football, not playing well and losing.”

Phil, if you happen to be reading this, I want to speak to you directly. We would all like to praise you for winning games of football. Sure, some things have happened in recent weeks that are out of your control, but we are all pulling for you to win. But, given that the recent run of matches have resulted in a 7-game winless streak, we have to find the positive things to talk about. I even went as far to criticize the attack that you have been receiving plaudits for. However, there are still encouraging signs for the Timbers (2-4-4, 11W/22S), despite the recent results.

Sam Svilar of Stumptown Footy recently tweeted a fascinating stat. In their past six games, the Timbers are overperforming their expected goals by 4.2, while their opponents are overperforming their xG by 4.6. Portland has been both extremely lucky and extremely unlucky over this recent stretch. So here’s the big question: which of these two outcomes is more likely to continue?

Based on my own eyes and analysis, I believe that the defense will continue to improve game by game. The attacking output is far more worrying because the Timbers aren’t creating enough chances on the whole. The Timbers still rank in the bottom third of the league in shot-creating actions per 90. However, the Timbers rank in the top 10 for two specific types of SCAs. The first one is take-ons, more simply referred to as dribbles. Portland ranks 9th in SCAs from take-ons per 90 in MLS. There is a category that they rank higher in, and it’s not a sign of a healthy attack. In terms of fouls drawn that lead to a shot attempt, the Timbers have the 6th highest mark in MLS. Because of this massive outlier, I decided to dig a little deeper into the numbers. What I found might surprise you.

I didn’t think I would be talking about foul differential today, but here goes nothing. The Timbers have drawn the second most fouls in MLS this season. They have also committed the 11th-most fouls in MLS. Their foul differential (fouls drawn minus fouls committed) is a whopping +30. This got me thinking, so I decided to figure out the foul differential of every team in the league through 10 games. 

The team with the biggest positive foul differential is Columbus, with a whopping +68 difference. Only the Crew have been fouled more than Portland (only a 2-foul difference) and they have committed the second fewest fouls in the league. The silver medal for positive differential is the LA Galaxy, who have suffered the 3rd-most fouls in MLS and have a differential of +46. A distant gap between first and second 10 games into the year. And to round out the podium, it makes perfect sense that the flopping fish up north have a differential of +38. Portland comes in 4th. The worst three teams (biggest negative differential) are Minnesota (-41), DC (-52), and LAFC (-69). But this data didn’t really stand out to me until I looked at another stat. The Galaxy, Columbus, and Seattle also make the podium in that order for the most touches in the attacking third. Where do the Timbers rank, you might ask? They rank 24th in MLS in touches in the attacking third, which is 6th-worst in the league. That absolutely fascinates me, but it also explains a lot. The Timbers are simply spending too much time on the ball, and opposing teams are putting in hard challenges to try and win the ball back. It isn’t conducive to a productive attack, and the Timbers need to work on keeping the ball in order to improve the attack. Just because goals are flowing doesn’t mean that the attack is elite, even though the box score says otherwise.

Evander is “50/50” for tomorrow’s game. Eric Miller has a stomach bug but according to Neville he should be good to go. Dario Zuparic will be in the squad after missing the last 3 games due to personal reasons. Marvin Loria is still out. Diego Chara is suspended due to yellow card accumulation.

Even though Zuparic is back in the squad, I don’t think that he starts over either Miller or Araujo. Chara’s absence and Evander’s potential scratch open up the possibilities for the midfield and attack. I’m also predicting a “worst-case scenario” lineup for Portland like I did with Charlotte. I do expect Williamson to start either in the double pivot or at the 10. David Ayala should also start because he’s the only other 6 on the team besides Chara. I’m including Paredes because I think Williamson does start at the 10 which would force Moreno out to the right. Antony wasn’t particularly impressive against LAFC, and Moreno has scored in back-to-back games. If Neville starts Antony, expect Moreno to be at the 10 and Williamson partnering Ayala in the midfield. Rodriguez and Mora are locked-in starters. Given the unsure status of their best player, the Timbers might need to get creative in Charlotte.

Tactical Preview

The Middle Third

Read this if you haven’t already.

A Rodriguez Revolution

In his first six games as a Timber, Jonathan Rodriguez has tallied 2 goals and 1 assist. That averages out to 1 goal contribution every two games. That’s not exactly elite, but it’s also far from terrible. Let’s just recap how Rodriguez’s tenure in Portland has gone so far. In his first game, he scored Portland’s lone goal against Philly while playing as a striker. Against Vancouver, he started up top but couldn’t find the back of the net. He did draw a potential penalty late in the game, but Allen Chapman chose not to make the call. He was back up top against SKC, and moved out to the left when Felipe Mora entered at halftime. He assisted Mora’s goal from his position on the left wing. In the next three games, the Uruguayan has started on the left each time. In two of those games, the Timbers had a man sent off and had to play a man down for a significant period of time. So across his first six games, he’s played striker and winger and hasn’t really had a chance to play a “normal game.” But there is something he desperately needs: service. As shown in both the Philly game and last week’s loss in Los Angeles, he makes things happen when he gets fed. Mora and Rodriguez are the two best finishers in the team and they need a ton of chances to feed on. Rodriguez hasn’t really had a true breakout game yet, but all signs are pointing to him exploding in Charlotte.

This map comes from OPTA, and it illustrates the various zones of control for each team. The defensive third is on the left, and the attacking third is on the right. If a zone is blue, it means that the selected team has the majority of touches in that zone. If the zone is grey, the zone is contested. And if the zone is red, it means that opposing teams have the majority of touches in that zone. Charlotte’s map is indicative of a counter-attacking team. They allow opposing teams to have the majority of touches in their own half, and cede plenty of room to teams on the wings. Specifically, the left wing. Where Rodriguez plays. The Timbers need to get him involved early and often because the map indicates that he will have plenty of time to cook. Portland is very accustomed to using the right wing to launch attacks, but they will need to use both wings in order to break down Charlotte’s stubborn defensive block.

Final Thoughts

Announcer Analytics

This week’s announcers are Neil Sika and former Charlotte color commentator Lloyd Sam. Pablo Ramirez and Jesus Bracamontes are on the call in Spanish. The match is FREE on Apple TV and kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 PM. 

Sika: 0-1-1

Sam: 0-1-0

Ramirez: 0-1-2

Bracamontes: 0-0-1

Referee Report

The Timbers are not just playing Charlotte for the first time on Saturday. The game will be officiated by a referee that has never officiated a Timbers game before. Here are the stats for Malik Badawi.

Career Regular Season Games: 16 games, 3.63 yellows/game, 1 red card, 6 penalties, 24.31 fouls/game

Home Team: 1.94 yellows/game (1.69 for visitors), 1 red card (0 for visitors), 3 penalties (3 for visitors), 12.56 fouls/game (11.75 for visitors)

Games Involving Charlotte: 1-0-0 (1-0-0 at home), 0 yellows/game (2 for opponents), 0 red cards (0 for opponents), 2 penalties (0 for opponents), 9 fouls per game (11 for opponents) *The only Charlotte FC game Badawi refereed was a 3-0 home victory over Toronto on May 10th, 2023*

Games Involving Portland: N/A

Previous Charlotte-Portland games: N/A

The Potential Launchpad

Even before Charlotte’s injury report came out, this game looked like a Timbers win. With Abada questionable, the Timbers have the opportunity to accomplish two things: win and get a clean sheet. Although Evander is questionable, and his absence would be a big loss, the Timbers have scored a combined 8 goals in 3 games without their star man in 2024. The attack will find success in this game. But unlike the last two weeks, the Timbers will have to break Charlotte down in possession rather than absorbing pressure and hitting them on the counterattack. After this game, the Timbers are playing 6 of their next 10 games at Providence Park. This is a perfect opportunity to end their recent slide before their schedule gets more favorable. But Charlotte is a tough place to play, and the hosts have lost their last two games. They cannot take Charlotte for granted, and the Timbers have plenty of motivation to get their first win since March 9th.