Austin FC-Portland Timbers Preview (4/5)

A reverse fixture? So soon?

For the first time in 2025, the Portland Timbers are going to Texas. However, their opponent is very familiar. Almost too familiar, in fact.

The Verde Report

It has only been one month since Austin FC traveled to Portland and lost 1-0. Is it advantageous for the reverse fixture to take place so soon after the initial meeting? Well, based on what the Verde-and-Black have done since that loss, I have conflicting thoughts.

Austin (4-0-2, 12 points, 2W/4S) are 3-0-1 since losing to the Timbers on March 1st. In those four games, they have only conceded two goals. Oddly enough, both have been at home. Their first game after the Portland loss was a 1-0 loss to the Colorado Rapids at Q2 Stadium. They dominated the ball in that game (59%-41% possession advantage) and outshot the Rapids 20-6. However, only five of those efforts found the target and the Rapids were able to take advantage on the counter. But their 3 most recent games have been rather impressive, at least result-wise.

Would you be surprised if I said that their 1-0 victory against LAFC in Los Angeles flattered the hosts? After a Hugo Lloris error allowed the Verde-and-Black to take the lead in the 11th minute, the visitors immediately retreated into a deep defensive block and dared LAFC to break it down. However, this also resulted in several good chances on the counter for Austin. They missed all of them. Then they hosted San Diego FC and won 2-1. The league’s newest expansion team has made a name for themselves with a very ball-dominant style of play. Austin, meanwhile, scored two fast-break goals early in the first half and promptly curled up into their armadillo shells. San Diego did get a goal back through Luca De la Torre, but were unable to find an equalizer. That’s two very good wins in a row for Austin, but could they make it 3 wins in a row with a trip to St. Louis?

Here’s where the conflicting thoughts come into play. Austin’s past three games have been in standalone windows with no other MLS games in action. I have no idea why the league did this. It could be due to Q2 Stadium hosting the 2025 MLS All-Star Game. After all, marketing is the sole (unofficial) mission statement of MLS. But there is no excuse to subject a national audience to Austin FC three weeks in a row. Even two would be excessive.

I think I’ve found the perfect descriptor of the St. Louis-Austin game from last weekend. St. Louis attacks like they want to defend, and Austin defends like they don’t want to attack. Trust me, that sentence makes sense. After Austin took the lead in the 33rd minute, they immediately yielded the initiative to the hosts. It should be noted that two of St. Louis’ top attacking threats (Cedric Teuchert and Eduard Lowen) were not available for this game. The Raviolis failed to threaten Austin’s goal, and the Verde-and-Black low-blocked their way to their third straight win.

There’s a common phrase among soccer fans that describes a team that wants to play like this. “Terrorism-ball” is often used to label a team that prefers to cede the initiative and focus on defending. Austin FC have perfected this style of soccer. Not only are they proficient at defending their own box (often sticking as many as 10 players into their own penalty area) they get gold stars for time-wasting. Personally, I think “terrorism-ball” is too harsh. I’m comfortable calling Austin’s style under Nico Estevez as “anti-soccer.” Especially given the horses they have assembled in the attacking corps.

Three DPs costing a total of $31.6M have arrived over the past year to boost the attack. However, none of them have occupied Austin’s biggest need. This is something that the Verde-and-Black have never had since entering the league in 2021: a high-quality central creator (more simply a number 10). Former talisman Sebastian Driussi technically occupied the central attacking midfield slot under former coach Josh Wolff, but he wasn’t a creative threat. Driussi usually operated as a second forward and box-crasher. Is the lack of a true number 10 preventing Austin from playing a ball-focused style of soccer? I don’t think it is the sole reason, but it’s absolutely a factor. Their top creator in 2025 has been Owen Wolff, who leads the team with 3 assists. All of those assists have come from set pieces. They offer so little in open play because there isn’t anyone to create for two of their 3 DPs. Brandon Vazquez and Myrto Uzuni were brought in to finish. None of them offer too much as a creator. Osman Bukari, on the other hand, showed some flashes last year but has been rather underwhelming in 2025. He notably missed several big chances against San Diego, but provided the game-winning assist in St. Louis. There’s a lot of pressure on the Ghanaian winger to be the primary creative force in this Austin team. I think he needs some help.

ATX Injury Report and Projected Starting XI

Desler has been dealing with a hamstring for a while, and Rubio is a new addition to the report.

This is the exact same XI that started against St. Louis. Maybe Estevez swaps out one of the midfielders (likely Pereira) for Ilie Sanchez, but why bother switching around a team that got the job done last weekend?

The Timbers Report

Meanwhile, the Timbers (3-1-2, 10 points, 6W/13S) have won back-to-back games for the first time since late July/early August. But that was during the Leagues Cup group stage. Their last instance of back-to-back wins in league play was early July when they dispatched RSL and Nashville at Providence Park. However, you have to turn the clock back to November 2021 to see the last time they won consecutive road games. They won in Salt Lake City on November 3rd and then beat the Rapids in a playoff game on Thanksgiving. Tomorrow’s match is an opportunity not just to climb in the table and win their third game in a row. I scoured the match logs to try and find the last time they won consecutive road games within the first three months of the season. They won 3 straight games during the Great 2019 Roadtrip, so I guess that counts.

Last week, the team opened the voting for the Timbers’ All-Time XI. I haven’t filled out my picks yet, but I’ll be doing so in an upcoming article. I have too much to say about it.

Let’s spend some time looking at some basic stats through six games. The Timbers have scored nine goals so far, with six of those coming in their past two games. Of those goals, 6 have come from open play, 1 from a set piece, 1 from a direct free-kick (you can debate the intention behind that free kick but it counts as one) and one own goal (once again, thank you Josh Atencio, I never doubted you). Antony is the top scorer with 4 goals, and Felipe Mora is the only other player with multiple goals (2). Mora and Santiago Moreno are tied for the assist lead with two. Jimer Fory has 4 yellow cards, which is the most in the entire league. David Da Costa has 1g/1a in 483 minutes. Not an amazing start on the stat sheet for Portuguese Dave, but his impact on the team goes far beyond goal contributions.

PTFC Injury Report and Projected Starting XI

Phil Neville said on Thursday that Jonathan Rodriguez has received his Green Card and is hoping to have him back in training next week. Araujo’s situation is much cloudier. Yes, he’s still in Peru trying to get his Green Card, but reports surfaced this week (from the team, I might add) that the club and the player are working on a potential departure. I don’t know how that exit might materialize, but it looks like the Peruvian defender is surplus to requirements at this point. Something to keep an eye on as the end of the transfer window approaches.

The same logic that applies to Austin’s projected lineup also works for the Timbers. Like Austin, there could be a midfield shuffle (probably Ortiz or Paredes starting in place of Chara) but I think it’s unlikely. One thing to note: Fory is one yellow card away from a one-match suspension.

Tactical Preview

A Taste of Their Own Medicine

In order to win this game, I think the Timbers should give Austin a chance to play with the ball. Against Houston, Portland’s counterattack stood out. They will continue to be a threat on the break, but Austin is not a threat with the ball at their feet. All of their open play goals (all TWO of them) have come from quick transition moments. In addition, this is a road game. Trying to keep it as low-scoring as possible always works in the road team’s favor. Forcing Austin to use the ball and capitalizing on turnovers is a good game plan for any road team.

Set Pieces

Three of Austin’s five goals have come from set pieces. Owen Wolff’s delivery could cause problems for the Timbers. I’ll defer to the head coach on this portion:

“Concentrate. Stick to your man. Do your job. Don’t get blocked.”

Simple but effective set piece defense if executed correctly. Austin had 5 corner kicks in the reverse fixture last month. They’re probably going to earn several more in tomorrow’s game. Just relax, trust the process, and do your job.

In addition, I’d like to see the Timbers score a goal from a set piece in this game. Even if it’s from a recycled clearance. Routines like a flick-on header at the near post or a header from the far post into the center of the box could be used effectively if the execution is there.

Matchday Info

Announcer Analytics

English: Neil Sika and Lloyd Sam

Spanish: Jose Bauz and Eduardo Biscayart

Home Radio Broadcast from 750 The Game: not available on Apple TV

Broadcast platform: FOX, MLS Season Pass on Apple TV

Kickoff time: 4:45 PM (4:55 PM) PST

Referee Report

Drew Fischer’s 2025 stats: 4 games, 21.25 fouls/game, 0.5 penalties/game, 3 yellows/game, 0 reds/game

Last Timbers game officiated: May 26, 2024 vs. SKC 2-1 W

Full disclosure: I think Drew Fischer is the best referee that PRO has to offer. He strikes the correct balance between letting the teams play and calling fouls.

Series History

Historical record: 6-1-3, +3 goal differential

Record at Q2 Stadium: 3-0-2, -1 goal differential

Last meeting: March 1st. 2025 @PTFC 1-0 W

Last road meeting: May 29, 2024 @ATX 2-0 W

Table Time

It’s a very tight Western Conference through six games. Only three teams have proven themselves as “actually good”: Vancouver, San Diego, and Minnesota. A win could move Portland into the top four. However, a loss could drop them out of the playoff positions. It’s still way too early for the table to begin to matter, but winning this game could really come in handy later in the season.

Final Whistle

If you couldn’t already tell, I’ve put Austin on fraud watch. Don’t get me wrong, I think they’re a good team, but they haven’t been able to dominate games. Every single one of their 2025 matches has been decided by one goal. I don’t think that’s sustainable.

The Timbers should know what’s going to happen if they concede first. The Verde-and-Black will retreat into their armadillo shells and park the bus at home. What a ludicrous way to play soccer. Portland is best served by taking the lead and forcing Austin to score a goal from a negative game state. In their six 2025 matches, Austin has only been trailing in one of them. It was their home game against Colorado, and they couldn’t find a goal after conceding in the 18th minute. Tomorrow’s game will be an exercise in balance for the Portland Timbers. They will probably dominate the ball (against my wishes). They will have chances on the break. Whichever team can finish their big chances will win the game. It’s rather simple analysis, but Austin is a simple team. Portland ran Houston off the field last weekend, but they’re probably not going to be able to do that at Q2 Stadium. In fact, I’ll make it a bit simpler. Whoever scores first will win. Time to push for a third straight win and a second straight road win. The climb continues.