2024 Offseason To-Do List: Part Two

A look into the half-day trade window, the expansion draft, and a couple of transfer rumors.

MLS Cup is on Saturday. The Los Angeles Galaxy will host the New York Red Bulls in a matchup that would have been a clash of titans 10 years ago. For every other club, the offseason has already begun. After the trophy is lifted this weekend, it’s about to kick into full swing.

Trade Window

On Monday, a four-hour trade window will open up. This is a golden opportunity for the Timbers to try and bring in a new player. But what positions should they target during this window?

Their two biggest needs, in my opinion, are striker and central midfield. However, based on the recent rumors, it’s pretty easy to project that the Timbers will reinforce those areas through the international market. There is another need that can be filled during the trade window, and there’s one player in particular that I think they need to target.

Last season, the Timbers were relatively healthy. They avoided dreaded ACL tears and hamstring injuries for the first time in several years. However, one player’s repeated absences proved costly for consistency. Claudio Bravo missed several games for various reasons and, with no natural replacement on the roster, the coaching staff forced other players into his spot. The Timbers desperately need another player who can naturally cover left back. Although there is a surplus of defenders on the roster, this need has to be addressed during the offseason. What better time than the trade window?

Andrew Brody, RSL (LB/RB)

Real Salt Lake have five left backs on the roster. Three of them (Brody, Alexandros Katranis, and Luis Rivera) are already under contract for next season. Tommy Silva had his option picked up. As of December 2nd, the club were in discussions with Zack Farnsworth for a new contract. That’s a massive surplus at the position. Brody, a regular starter since 2021, could be available for a reasonable sum of GAM.

The 29-year-old appeared in every regular season game for RSL last season. He is a solid and dependable two-way fullback. His contract expires in 2025 and he could be available for cheap. Plus, who doesn’t want a player with this kind of support from his own fans?

The Timbers could be buying during the brief trade window, but they could also be selling. Players like Dario Zuparic, Miguel Araujo, and Eryk Williamson could be interesting trade chips. Each player could earn a significant GAM haul. Even if a trade doesn’t materialize, I think the Timbers will be active during the trade window.

Expansion Draft

San Diego FC (who I already despise) will be at the center of the league’s attention on December 11th. The deepest pool of talent will be available during their expansion draft. Could they select a Timbers player? Well, it depends on who the team protects. Let’s take a look at the rules.

The Timbers will protect 12 players, but some of them are already protected. Tega Ikoba and Hunter Sulte will automatically be protected due to their status as Homegrowns. Every other player is eligible to be selected, so who will the Timbers protect?

The Guaranteed Ten

Evander

Jonathan Rodriguez

Felipe Mora

Santiago Moreno

Antony

David Ayala

Juan Mosquera

Kamal Miller

Finn Surman

Claudio Bravo

All of these players will be protected by the Timbers. This list includes their 2 DPs and every player who was or currently is a U22 Initiative signing. Kamal Miller, Finn Surman, and Claudio Bravo required various levels of transfer fee to bring to the club. Portland will not risk any of these players. There are two remaining spots, and it’s not going to be easy to decide which players will fill them.

The Bubble

Eryk Williamson

Cristhian Paredes

Maxime Crepeau

James Pantemis

Miguel Araujo

Dario Zuparic

Before I talk about the “bubble” players, I’m going to address the players who I expect to be unprotected. The most obvious omission from Portland’s protected list will be Diego Chara. Given the amount of talent available around the league and Chara’s age, it’s pretty safe to assume that San Diego will not consider selecting the club captain. It’s a risk to leave him unprotected, but a very safe one. Zac McGraw fell out of favor and, in my opinion, is the most draftable player on Portland’s roster who isn’t a DP or U22. Other players like Eric Miller and Trey Muse aren’t in serious danger of being selected either. It is worth reminding everyone that players who will not be returning next year like Mason Toye and Marvin Loria will be eligible to be selected during the draft.

The two remaining spots will be filled by a central midfielder and a goalkeeper. The bigger question is “Which one?” Araujo and Zuparic are both experienced defenders but carry a high salary and cap hit. If San Diego is going to be the club that I think they will be, I doubt that either center back will be high on their list. Araujo is more in danger of being selected than Zuparic, and he hasn’t impressed in his Timbers tenure. So it comes down to Williamson vs. Paredes and Crepeau vs. Pantemis.

Let’s start with the goalkeepers because I think it’s an easier choice. Crepeau was expected to be first-choice, but ended up on the bench for the final three matches after a rough debut season. Among keepers who started 12 matches, Crepeau had the 4th-lowest PSxG differential per 90. Pantemis, despite starting 5 fewer games, had the 9th-most raw PSxG differential. Every other player who finished between 1st and 11th started at least 27 games. I didn’t go down to 12th because that spot is occupied by Dallas keeper Jimmy Maurer, whose numbers were boosted by a clean sheet against Portland where he prevented 1.8 post-shot expected goals in the regular-season home finale. Damn.

On a per-90 basis, Pantemis’ PSxG differential ranks 4th among qualified goalkeepers. Both of these players were free agents last winter and cost nothing to bring to the club besides their salaries. Crepeau’s salary cap charge is 400K more than Pantemis. If I was to protect one of these goalkeepers, I would put Pantemis on the list. San Diego might be tempted to take Crepeau, but the Timbers also have Hunter Sulte returning from an excellent loan spell with Indy Eleven. Portland can handle a potential Crepeau departure.

Central midfield is a lot harder. Williamson has been the focus of trade rumors since the 2022 offseason but no trade has materialized. Paredes is the second-longest tenured Timber after Diego Chara. Both players had opportunities to earn a starting job in 2024, and David Ayala laid claim to the spot alongside Chara in the midfield. My opinion on who should be protected seems to change on the daily, but my gut is telling me to protect Williamson. I don’t think Paredes is in as much danger of being selected as Williamson is. That’s what this decision boils down to. Overall, I don’t think any Timber will be selected, but McGraw and Araujo are the two most likely.

My Projected Protected (try saying that five times fast) List

Evander

Jonathan Rodriguez

Felipe Mora

Santiago Moreno

Antony

David Ayala

Juan Mosquera

Kamal Miller

Finn Surman

Claudio Bravo

James Pantemis

Eryk Williamson

The Rumor Mill

Evander was named to the MLS Best XI this week. It’s a fully deserved honor. Nothing has changed regarding his situation, but he has appeared on a few more Brazilian podcasts. The club isn’t going to accept an offer below their valuation even though Evander is unhappy. That’s part of the business. Evander has very little leverage, and none of the offers that have come in are anywhere close to the club’s valuation. I think it’s 70% likely that Evander will begin the 2025 season with Portland. Based on his recent comments, it sounds like he’s accepted that possibility as well.

Evander’s situation will determine Portland’s transfer business this summer. Particularly if he is sold. Rumors already appeared linking the Timbers to Lens attacking midfielder David Costa. I think any potential Costa transfer is entirely dependent on Evander being sold. But there are other potential additions that might not be contingent on the Timbers opening a DP slot.

Erick, Athletico Paranaense, BRA1 (DM)

Aside from his well-rounded statistical profile, his tape speaks to his physicality. That’s something that the Timbers desperately need in their midfield. Back in late November, the Timbers reportedly submitted a $3M bid for the 27-year-old. However, Paranaense reportedly value him around $7M. This could cause him to be a Designated Player because transfer fees (stupidly) count towards DP status. It’s a rule that MLS should be trying to get away from, especially considering SALARY should be the only thing that affects the SALARY CAP. However, because this league continues to insist on running before they can learn how to walk, it makes Erick’s potential arrival in Portland more complicated than necessary. If only there was a player that they were linked with that wouldn’t require a DP slot because of a transfer fee.

Besard Sabovic, Djurgardens, SWE1 (CM)

FBRef does not track the Swedish top division, so this statistical profile is from his 10 UEFA Conference League appearances. He’s a two-way box-to-box midfielder who can play as a 6 or an 8. Most importantly, based on the Swedish football schedule, he will be available on a free transfer at the end of December. Other MLS clubs have already inquired about him as well. He would probably be a TAM player in MLS, maybe a fringe DP depending on how intense the bidding war is.

In the summer of 2024, West Bromwich Albion (my favorite English club, if you didn’t know) were linked with Sabovic. I was over the moon at the possibility of him becoming a Baggie. In MLS, he would be a DP-quality midfielder with a TAM price tag. The Timbers need to do whatever they can to try and bring him to Portland. Especially if Erick’s high valuation is too much for the Timbers to overcome.

Next Steps

Free agency opens on December 12th, and the Re-Entry Draft begins the next day. Ned Grabavoy has been active in the free agent market during his tenure, and I expect that to continue this year. A free agency preview is coming next week. Until next time. Onwards.