2024 Offseason To-Do List: Part One

The first order of business? Establishing a new philosophy.

It has almost been two weeks since the Portland Timbers lost 5-0 to the Vancouver Whitecaps at Providence Park in the Wild Card Game. After giving that game some time to breathe, and after watching the New York Yankees choke the World Series, I was in the progress of writing a column about team awards. And you know what? I couldn’t do it. 

The 2024 season ended on the sourest possible note. Handing out awards after that catastrophe seemed incredibly disingenuous. That column will be released eventually. But before I can shower the players in praise for a wildly entertaining 2024, an offseason blueprint must be established. It’s time to look at what the Timbers need to do before the 2025 season kicks off, and that starts with figuring out what Ned Grabavoy’s plan actually is.

Part 1: On-Field Identity

Phil Neville’s first season in charge of the Timbers was a true rollercoaster. A 9-game winless streak turned into a 7-game unbeaten streak. Portland won their Leagues Cup group but lost on the road in the Round of 32. When the regular season resumed, Portland went 2-5-2 to close out the year before getting embarrassed at home in the Wild Card match. They were 0-4-2 in their final 6 games of the season, including a truly awful road record. Portland’s last victory away from home in 2024 was on June 19th in San Jose. However, they were fantastic at Providence Park in that time. After losing 2-1 to the Seattle Sounders on May 12th, Portland rattled off a 12-game unbeaten streak at home across all competitions before losing 1-0 to Austin on October 2nd. That astounding home form allowed the Timbers to return to the playoffs (technically) for the first time since 2021. However, throughout the season, Portland was consistently inconsistent. They would look like a Cup contender at times but resembled a Spoon-winner at other points. With so much inconsistency in their results, step one for the offseason has to be finding a consistent way to win games of soccer. And that starts with establishing a CLEAR on-field identity.

Portland’s identity in year one was “score one more than the opposing team.” A defense that wasn’t too bad on paper (45.2 xG conceded, 14th in the league) could not keep the ball out of their own net (54 goals conceded, 20th in the league). It’s time for me to immediately contradict myself. Portland’s defensive identity should have worked. It did begin to work towards the end of the season, but the Timbers’ elite depth at center back (probably the best in MLS) ended up being a costly luxury. With so many starting-quality center backs, the coaching staff was unable to establish any consistency at the position due to various injuries and absences. A clear first-choice partnership was evident by the end of Leagues Cup, but the pairing of Kamal Miller and Dario Zuparic only started 3 of the final 10 games of the season. Some players completely fell out of favor. After the stellar trio of Evander, Jonathan Rodriguez, and Felipe Mora lit the league on fire during the summer, they ran out of gas at the end of the year with very little depth behind them. Incoming players and a couple of sales are definitely necessary. 

Part 2: Player Movement

In order to establish a cohesive plan to get the Timbers back to the mountaintop, the front office needs to make some tough decisions. Some of those decisions have already been made.

The Declined Options

Mason Toye, Marvin Loria, and Tega Ikoba all had their contract options declined at the end of the season. All three of those choices are justified, but for different reasons. 

Ikoba began the season on loan with Indy Eleven in the USL Championship, but only scored 1 goal in 12 appearances before coming back to Portland after getting hurt. He lit up MLS NEXTPRO with 7g/1a in 12 appearances. Ikoba is 21 years old, but that loan spell was a death knell for his time in Portland. Despite his excellent physical profile, he simply isn’t ready for meaningful first-team minutes. Maybe picking up his option would’ve been a solid decision to give him one last chance in Portland, but I think the timing is right to let him find another team where he will play more meaningful minutes.

Marvin Loria began the year injured. After reaggravating his injury in the summer, he stayed injured. By the end of the season, he was fully healthy and ready for first-team minutes. He played one minute. Despite decreasing production from the forwards and miniscule amounts of depth out wide, Loria couldn’t buy any playing time. One of the biggest what-ifs of the season (at least from my perspective) is what this year could have looked like with a fully healthy Loria from the get-go. At the beginning of the season, I profiled what Loria’s role could look like in Neville’s team. This team was periously thin at left back, and Loria could have found a new life in Portland as Claudio Bravo’s primary back-up. Alas, it wasn’t meant to be, and Loria’s Timbers tenure has come to an end. I will always remember his first-team debut and the masterclass against RSL in the 2021 Western Conference Final. 

On paper, declining Mason Toye’s option is the right move. The majority of Toye’s $658K salary was covered by Montreal after he was traded to Portland in July. Picking up that expensive option for 2025 would add a significant amount of salary to Portland’s cap. What confuses me is the language surrounding this news. From the press release: “We would like to thank Mason, Marvin, and Tega for their contributions to the club and wish them all the best going forward.” 

That quote comes from Grabavoy, and it sounds like there will be no negotiations with Toye in the coming offseason. Now, he could want the same amount of compensation, and giving him that compensation for 0 league goals in 5 appearances (1 start) isn’t ideal. But Toye spoke about his eagerness to be in Portland and his brother in Corvallis multiple times during the season. It isn’t Toye’s fault that Brayan Vera (basically) ended his season after a dirty foul caused him to miss significant time during the stretch run. A healthy Toye during the final four games could have been a serious difference-maker. When Toye did get on the field, only one thing couldn’t be doubted: his willingness to play for the badge. Even though the quote from Grabavoy doesn’t point towards a Toye return, the Timbers have to begin negotiations again if January comes and they haven’t filled their striker need and Toye happens to be available. It’s disappointing, for sure, but it makes sense on paper.

The Evander Situation

Nothing has changed (in my mind) since the end of the Vancouver game in regards to Evander. Grabavoy and Neville addressed the situation during their exit interviews on October 25th. During that conference, Grabavoy called Evander’s tweetstorm “selfish” and Neville said that he was “disappointed.” None of those address the problem at hand, which is the contract negotiations that the club and player have been involved in since the summer. The biggest hang-up is not the offered salary, which would make Evander one of the highest-paid players in MLS (deserved). It is a $15M release clause that Evander’s representation wanted and the club declined.

A release clause sets a specific price that a team has to pay in order to bypass transfer fee negotiations with the club and immediately begin negotiations with the player and his representation. This is a fairly common practice in international soccer. Every player in La Liga is required to have a release clause in their contract. Some of those Spanish release clauses are exorbitant, but they have to be included. Earlier this season, the Timbers triggered German Berterame’s $15M release clause but the player chose not to join Portland because he needed to stay in Mexico to become eligible for the Mexican national team. He has since made his El Tri debut. Congratulations to him (non-derogatory). 

The Berterame episode has given some light to the other side of a release clause. Just because it has been triggered by a club doesn’t mean that the player would leave. Hypothetically, if a team triggered Evander’s release clause, both clubs would have to agree on a new contract and the player would depart. In this case, even though a release clause could mean that Evander leaves the Timbers, I am firmly pro-release clause.

Let’s begin with the variety of bids that have come in for Evander of the past year. None of them came close to matching the $10M that Portland paid FC Midtjylland for Evander back in December 2022. The highest bid came from an unnamed Qatari club back in September, and it was a total of $9M. That’s still very far off from what the Timbers would consider an “acceptable” bid for their star player. According to Tom Bogert of GIVEMESPORT, it was rejected out of hand. As it should be. If any of these teams were truly interested in Evander, they would have already made a bid at or around $15M for him. This release clause is not something that should be rejected outright; it needs to be negotiated. 

In a perfect world, there is no release clause for Evander. But it is a perfectly reasonable request from Evander’s representation to include one in his contract. Is $15M the right number? Personally, I would set it at $18-20M, but $15M is acceptable given the circumstances. But MLS’ transfer windows do not align with the various windows around the world, and Portland could be left without a replacement if the clause gets triggered outside of a MLS transfer window. When you really think about it, it becomes rather simple. Allowing the clause to be triggered only during MLS transfer windows solves that problem. A proper club with a proper scouting department should have a list of players that could fill Evander’s role on short notice. Look at what the Columbus Crew did in the summer of 2023. In the span of three days, they sold Lucas Zelarayan and signed Diego Rossi to replace him. It was seamless and the team didn’t miss a beat on the field. 

Now to address the other issue with a potential Evander release clause: isn’t it better for the Timbers if their best players stay in Portland and help them win trophies? Yes, objectively, it is better. There is no denying that. But the Timbers have been blessed with two transformational figures (Diego Valeri and Diego Chara) who were content to remain in Portland for the majority of their primes. Those players should be treated as the exception, not the norm. Especially if the Timbers are hell-bent on remaining competitive for the entirety of their existence. With the recent shift in MLS towards signing young players to develop and sell, Portland went out and signed four U22 Initiative players using the roster mechanism that encourages signings of that type. Evander might be a DP, and the club’s centerpiece, but he is not immune from that line of thinking. Especially when Portland’s top foreign export during their MLS history has been Tomas Conechny, and even calling him a “Timbers export” is quite a reach.

Conechny never found a starting role in Portland, and was released on a free transfer during the 2021 season. After bouncing around Argentina and Uruguay, he was signed by Alaves in La Liga this past summer. Since arriving in Spain, he has made 7 league appearances (6 starts) and has 1 goal. The Timbers have a reputation as a club that will not sell. That is holding them back far more than any Evander departure would.

Per Transfermarkt, Portland’s record sale was Jeremy Ebobisse back in 2021. That transfer can’t even be quantified as a “sale” because it was an inter-league trade for 1 million dollars in GAM (fake money). During the 14 seasons that Portland has existed in MLS, they have only made two international transfers. The first was in 2016 when they sold Jorge Villafana to Santos Laguna for a total of $995K. The other was Diego Valeri’s sale in January 2022 back to Lanus for a total of $179K. That’s it! Only those two international sales! Going back even further, there is only one other international sale in the ENTIRETY of Timbers history (per Transfermarkt). Scottish left-back Willie Donaghy was sold to Norwich in September 1981. NINETEEN EIGHTY-ONE. Adjusted for inflation, the Timbers received $870K for Donaghy 33 years ago. That is the ONLY OTHER international sale they have had in FIFTY YEARS of operation.

Now, that may be misleading, and it kind of is. Several players (Yimmi Chara, Frederic Piquionne, Adam Kwarasey, George Fochive, and Jose Adolfo Valencia) were sold for undisclosed fees since Portland joined MLS in 2011. Chara went back to Colombia, Piquionne went to Ligue 2 in France, Fochive went to  Only Chara (at the time of sale, a waste of a DP slot), Kwarasey (starting keeper for the 2015 Cup-winners and 2016 starter prior to a hand injury) and Piquionne (a bust) were key players in the minds of fans and the front office. Portland has a serious aversion to selling their top players, which is something that many MLS teams do not struggle with. And it is something that the Timbers have to do if they want to keep attracting good players to Portland.

Unlike the NBA, MLB, and NHL, Major League Soccer is not the best league in the world. Some players are going to want to come to MLS for more playing time and a chance to move to a better league. Young players are starting to see MLS as a stepping-stone league to Europe. The mindset that the Timbers’ front office seems to have does not hold up on the international stage. Portland isn’t even the most attractive market on the West Coast! MLS can be the best league in the Western Hemisphere, but it still can’t offer competitions like Copa Libertadores or Copa Sudamerica. CONCACAF Champion’s Cup is one thing, but it isn’t on the level of either continental cups in South America. Portland’s aversion to giving their top players a chance to shine outside of Portland will hurt them in the long run. Technically, it already has.

By this point, I’m pretty sure that a majority of you have read Bill Oram’s column in The Oregonian about Evander’s comments and the club’s response to them. No matter what I think of the ideas in that article (I think it’s pretty obviously a front-office puff piece) there are a couple of things that must be pointed out. First of all, Oram completely ignores the actual sticking point in the negotiations (the release clause). Even worse, he ignores credible reporting from someone at HIS OWN OUTLET. 

Evander’s contract dispute isn’t a one-off situation. Many players have had issues with the way that the front office has treated them. There aren’t too many situations where a player could be bigger than the club he plays for, but that’s what Evander has proven over the past year. Convincing a player to come to Portland (an objectively small market, even in MLS) is a hard sell. In order for this contract dispute to be solved, the Timbers have to agree to the $15M release clause. It is the right thing to do for the club and the player. A potential Evander departure for $15 million is not a fumble. It is not a disappointment. It is simply a sign of where the Portland Timbers are in the current state of world soccer. In order for the Timbers to truly evolve as a club, they have to be OK with selling their best players. It is something that they haven’t been able to do for the entirety of their MLS existence. Giving Evander what he wants (the contract and the release clause) is a welcome step towards building a club culture that is good for the players; not just the people who sign their checks. If this saga continues to be drawn out, other players are going to take notice and take any possible interest in Portland off the table. Including the release clause is a small price to pay for the ability to keep signing excellent players. Not every player is going to be a Timber for life, especially with hostile management. 

The Transfer List

Two players (besides Evander) should have major transfer interest this winter. At this point, it makes sense to sell one and keep the other. Here’s why.

Santiago Moreno: Sell

Moreno is the club’s first U22 Initiative signing. With three-and-a-half seasons in the books, the Colombian has been one of the key players for Portland since he seized a starting role in 2022. It hasn’t been a smooth ride for him, and he is the most likely player to leave during the winter transfer window. As he publicly stated on TikTok back in September, he would love to go to Brazil. That’s perfectly fine! It makes sense to sell players to South America during the winter rather than the summer. I expect Moreno to become Portland’s record departure this winter purely by default. 

Juan Mosquera: Keep (For Now)

Unlike Moreno, I believe that Mosquera would be a better fit for European clubs rather than a return to South America. The thought process is simple: keep Mosquera for the first half of 2025 before opening the door for European bids in the summer. I want the best for Mosquera, and the right move in summer 2025 could give him an opportunity to play his way into Colombia’s World Cup squad for the 2026 edition of soccer’s premier international tournament. With another half-season on the same trajectory that he established last year, his price tag could go up and the Timbers could turn a healthy profit on the Colombian right back. It simply makes more sense to keep Mosquera for another half-season before accepting one of the many bids that will certainly come in for him. More money is spent in the summer, so the bids that Portland will receive will be pricier than any winter offers. Selling Mosquera in the summer will achieve two crucial objectives for the club: making the right deal for the player and the club.

Final Whistle

The Portland Timbers need to become a “selling” club. It is long overdue. Moreno will be the start, and Mosquera will continue that trend. Agreeing to the release clause in Evander’s contract is a step in the right direction for a front office that can’t stop picking fights with their own players. This is a massive offseason for the Timbers, and it’s time for them to evolve. Even if it means potentially losing their best player. Good teams can overcome that through proper scouting and recruitment. After all, soccer is just a business at the end of the day. Time for the Timbers to actually be run like one.

More offseason articles are on the way. This was the most important one at this stage. Coming soon: expansion draft preview, free agents and transfer target list, and a couple big announcements. Onwards.